NSIDC Arctic sea ice news August 2011

NSIDC has just released its August analysis.

Some interesting tidbits:

Arctic sea ice near record lows

Arctic sea ice extent averaged for August 2011 reached the second lowest level for the month in the 1979 to 2011 satellite record. Both the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea route appear to be open. Throughout August, sea ice extent tracked near the record lows of 2007, underscoring the continued decline in Arctic ice cover.

(...)

Average ice extent for August 2011 was 5.52 million square kilometers (2.13 million square miles). This is 160,000 square kilometers (61,800 square miles) above the previous record low for the month, set in August 2007, and 2.15 million square kilometers (830,000 square miles), or 28% below the average for 1979 to 2000. Sea ice coverage remained below normal everywhere except the East Greenland Sea. In addition, several large areas of open water (polynyas) have opened within the ice pack.

(...)

Air temperatures were 1 to 4 degrees Celsius (2 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than average (relative to the 1981 to 2010 climatology) over the Arctic Ocean (measured approximately 1000 meters above the surface). The strongest anomalies were over the Northwest Passage region. High pressure persisted over much of the central Arctic Ocean, associated with a wind pattern that helped to push ice from the Beaufort Sea westward into the Chukchi Sea. This may have slowed some ice loss in the Chukchi Sea region. However, the wind pattern also transported ice into open waters warmed during the summer, fostering melt.

(...)

Sea ice is now almost completely gone from the channels of the Northwest Passage, with the exception of a small strip of ice across a stretch of the Parry Channel. The southern route (Amunden's Route) is ice free. According to the Canadian Ice Service, sea ice extent in the western Parry Channel is now the lowest at this time of year since record keeping began in 1966 and very little multi-year ice remains. According to Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent (MASIE) data, ice cover across the Canadian Archipelago is at record low levels.

The Northern Sea Route along Siberia remains ice-free, with a number of cargo ships passing through in recent weeks. However, some areas of older, thicker ice have helped preserve the tongue of ice extending into the East Siberian Sea.

(...)

Will Arctic sea ice extent reach a new record in 2011?

The melt season for Arctic sea ice will soon draw to a close. Surface melt has already largely ended and the ocean waters are cooling. Air temperatures at the North Pole have fallen below freezing. However, with the ice cover now thinner than in years past, there is a greater potential for late-season ice loss, caused by warm water melting ice from below or winds that push the ice together.

Whether Arctic sea ice breaks a new record hinges on three factors: First, how much heat is left in the ocean to eat away at the ice edge and bottom? Second, will wind patterns blow the ice together and reduce ice extent or will they disperse the ice and expand ice extent? Finally, just how thin is the remaining ice cover? Thin ice quickly melts away when it is surrounded by warm water.

Read the whole report HERE.

Comments

[Lord Soth]

It also states that:

"Higher-resolution Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) data processed by the University of Bremen showed ice extent on September 5 as falling below the same date in 2007."

NSIDC is very much in the running for a minimun extent this year.

[L. Hamilton]

The time series of NSIDC August means are graphed alongside those by UB, CT and IJIS here:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/sea_ice_time_series_Aug.png

[r w Langford]

L Hamilton; One graph is worth a thousand words.

[A Facebook User]

Always a little chilling, though, when a scientific summary mixes up Celsius and Fahrenheit.

[Patrice Monroe Pustavrh]

Air temperatures were 1 to 4 degrees Celsius (0.5 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than average (relative to the 1981 to 2010 climatology)
Sorry, but this is not good at all, I'd believe if they switch C to F... Lost in translation ?

[Neven]

They had already fixed it, but I hadn't yet. Fixed now. Thanks.

Air temperatures were 1 to 4 degrees Celsius (2 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than average

[Andrew Xnn]

Wonder if that was that the technical difficulty?

[logicman]

A facebook user - just count yourself lucky that we aren't teaching our kids the 3 Rs - Reamur, Roemer and Rankine !

I stated in my earlier blogs that in my opinion 2011 is likely to set a new low extent record. In my September blog I went for a new record minimum, giving reasons.
A new study of volume is just now making the headlines:
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/pip/2011JC007084.shtml
"... the 2010 September ice volume anomaly did in fact exceed the previous 2007 minimum by a large enough margin to establish a statistically significant new record."

http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/total-volume-arctic-ice-shrank-record-low-2010

Given that 2011 started with such a low volume, and that it has more-or-less caught up with the delayed start of melt which was due to extra cold temps over the western areas, I am confident that a new area record will be set as marked by both NSIDC and IJIS.

As I write this, the IJIS area is already the lowest ever for this day. The current rate of melt is such that it need only continue for 2 weeks to set the new record.

btw - the landfast ice has broken up now on both sides of Flade / Nord. As far as I know that is the first time that both areas have broken up at the same time.

[Twemoran]

Patrick - Is it possible that the ice normally bridging the outlet of Independence Fjord and Dansmark Fjord ie from Perry Land to Kronprins Christian Land, has been in place for some thousands of years?

I'm aware that the southern tip of Perry Land exhibits Quaternary cover and so must have been ice free, probably during the Holocene maximum, and also that Independence Fjord often melts, but the ice shelf to the east remained frozen at least in 2009 and 2010 leading me to speculate that it was quite aged.

Any help you an offer is appreciated

[none]

PIOMAS is now at a record low absolute volume (Big surprise....)

[Kevin O'Neill]

PIOMAS is out with a new graph and data through 8/31. The 8/31 volume is 4.275 kkm^3 -- already the lowest year on record with a few weeks of loss left. With losses typical for September this year should see a volume minimum under 4kkm^3.

The last 6 yearly volume minimums:

2006 8.993
2007 6.458
2008 7.072
2009 6.893
2010 4.428
2011 4.275 (and falling)

Maslowski's trend continues.

[Paul Klemencic]

NSIDC replied to my September 1st email, asking about updating problems, so I sent them a reply. We are likely to see some changes in the MASIE data.

NSIDC was nice enough to mention the MASIE site in their report, right after I suggested it in the September 1st email. I am beginning to think ice scientists win the "Best Customer Service Award" among climate scientists. Well, maybe even among all scientists.

[Paul Klemencic]

I did a blink comparison of today's final Bremen map versus the one for September 4 ( covering the 48-hour data collection period), and there was massive ice edge pullback in all regions, although the Laptev Bite was pinched.

IJIS should show a big extent loss. We will know in a few minutes.

[Paul Klemencic]

Only 41k loss on the preliminary IJIS... I can't predict these IJIS reports at all.
Well, at least the Bremen SIE data seems consistent with observations.

[D]

On the AMASIE graph, it's pretty clear that the 30 year straight line they use is not the best fit. A 15 year straight line would give a far steeper decline curve and match the recent data much better.

Are there any scientific reasons to choose the 30 year line over the 15, or is it just excessive caution?
Is there anyone here who thinks their 30 year trend would more accurately predict future melt than a 15 year trend line?

Personally, if I were betting I might go even steeper than the 15 year trend.

[Wipneus]

My updated August piomas graphs.

Daily ice volume:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/piomas-trnd4.png

Monthly mean trends:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/piomas-trnd2.png

Minimum yearly ice volume (that is in September) with the preliminary value for 2011 plotted:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/piomas-trnd6.png

[H Barnard]

@D
Personally, if I were betting I might go even steeper than the 15 year trend

I think the oil companies are also betting on this. Seriously depressing news (though not 'new' news):

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/unlocked-by-melting-icecaps-the-great-polar-oil-rush-has-begun-2349789.html

[D]

It dawned on me that the ice in the east greenland sea was consolidated by late fresh water run off, and snow?, last year. Which is why it's been so tenacious, similar to antarctic conditions?
Looking at the fram straight animation it seems to be melting from below then refreezing with more fresh water, given the 'right' local conditions it looks prone to a rapid melt/dispersion, in 2-3 days anytime in the next three weeks.

[Seke Rob]

Reading allot and the *courage* that we, humanity, will be addressing the global pollution problem, CO2 first, is for me at all time low. Obama just instructed the EPA to back off from pushing of of the regulations.

For now, the short and long YTD extent and Area average anomalies speak for themselves:

JAXA YTD Average Anomaly Chart

Only 2007 and 2011 are outside the 2003-2010 1 sigma.

And CT YTD Average Anomaly Chart (with fitted JAXA curve)

CT just updated added 2 days more data. flat on the 3.0 million sqkm area line. Melt water freezing... the whippets are tiring slowly... the rabbit is getting away, but the last 14 day average ending September 4 is winning:

2007: 3.068 million sqkm
2011: 3.059 million sqkm

Statistical, bare eye it's still photo-finish.

[Neven]

I must've refreshed that PIOMAS graph a 100 times yesterday, but had to go to bed at a certain point.

But anyway, here's the PIOMAS August 2011 post.

[Seke Rob]

Re: Paul Klemencic | September 07, 2011 at 04:59

Paul, re your mail, did they say to suspend MASIE updates as it's now the 4th day without chart or data updates.

thx