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Artful Dodger

Pardon Neven, could you please amend the link to the "Supplemental Information" above to read:

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/extref/ngeo1285-s1.pdf

Bedankt!

Neven

Fixed, Lodger. Thanks for the links.

Philiponfire

the visual difference between the three dimensional ice in the Russian film from 1947 and the almost two dimensional ice shown in the Healy pictures is profound is it not. and the clear freeboard of flat ice floes above the water surface was much higher then than now.
we may not have regular ice free summers for a few years yet but I suspect that we are going to see weather events providing random single summers much sooner than any reasonable person would wish for.
The early end of the melt this year was very clearly a weather event not a climate pattern. the reverse is just as likely in a random universe.

Wayne Kernochan

A couple of notes that I'd welcome thoughts on:

1. It appears from NSIDC (yes, I know they can be inaccurate) that the Northeast Passage above Russia finally closed on 10/15. My recollection is that this is a record late closing, and the previous record was the 10th, five days earlier. Yes? No?

2. I note that Cryosphere area has suddenly gone flat, making the anomaly -2 mkm**2 -- although the last two days seem to be missing. I still think it's unlikely that there will be a record global anomaly, although Antarctic anomaly still seems to be tracking around zero; but maybe it's worth watching?

Artful Dodger

Hi Wayne,

CT has updated thru 2011.7891 the anomaly is -2.135 m km^2 (as of Oct 15, 2011).

It's interesting that 2011 CT sea ice area has finally exceeded the minimum SIA for 2009 (a remarkable 35 days later):

Year.Frac Anomly CTSIA Day Date:
_________ ______ _____ ___ __________
2009.6904 -1.296 3.425 252 Sep09,2009
2011.7863 -2.074 4.467 287 Oct14,2011
Incidentally, minimum sea ice area also occurred on a later day in 2011 than in every other year since 2006.

Artful Dodger

Pardon, please ignore my incorrect statement above... (must be the decaff :^)

2011 SIA exceeded 2009 minSIA on Sep 24:

Year_Frac CTSIA Day
2011.7316 3.441 267

So, 2011 is 15 days ahead of 2009 on this metric.

Cheers,
Lodger

Wayne Kernochan

Hi L - Thanks for the new info.

Reading the new data, I noted a couple of other things:

1. It's 19 days or thereabouts until the global area high point. If the negative anomaly stays at this point until then, we may see not only the first global area maximum under 21 mkm **2, but also the first maximum under 20.

2. This appears to be only the second time in the data that the Arctic negative anomaly has been more than 2 mkm**2, the other being a period in September of 2007. It would need to go up another .5 mkm**2 to beat that.

Hopefully one of these two will happen, and will satisfy Neven's jones for new records :) Of course, if #2 happens, we would also probably beat the all-time global negative anomaly of about -2.46.- w

Neven
Hopefully one of these two will happen, and will satisfy Neven's jones for new records :)

The Lord knows I've been waiting for this one for months now. :-P

Kevin McKinney

"The Vanishing Arctic"--currently in Neven's sidebar of newsfeed stories--is in fact by RC's Stefan Rahmstorf. It's an easy read, albeit not a pleasant one, and evinces Dr. Rahmstorf reaching some of the same conclusions aired here throughout this past melt sason.

To wit:

If this continues, we will probably see an ice-free North Pole within the next 10-20 years. Yes, that sounds shocking. But there is good reason to fear that the rate of decline will indeed continue to rise, and that satellite images of a blue polar ocean will grace the covers of news magazines sooner rather than later.

The reason is that the ice is also getting thinner. This is harder to measure than the area of ice cover, which is easily viewed by satellites. But various data, including measurements from ships and aircraft, confirm that the ice has thinned by roughly half since the 1980’s. This also makes physical sense, given the rapid warming in the Arctic.

If the ice cover simultaneously shrinks and gets thinner, then the shrinkage in area is first steady but then accelerates towards the end, when the remaining ice becomes ever thinner and more vulnerable to melting. This is what I fear is happening now.

Artful Dodger

Hi Neven,

Do you think it'd be fun to run a poll for the March 2012 Maximum Sea Ice Extent? I'd also like see bidding on Sea Ice Volume (which seems to be much more predictable, so not nearly as enjoyable!)

Cheers,
Lodger

Artful Dodger

BOE et.al (2009) "Current GCMs' Unrealistic Negative Feedback in the Arctic", Journal of Climate

The vertical temperature structure of the atmosphere in the Arctic, characterized by a surface inversion during wintertime, exerts a strong control on the temperature feedback and consequently on simulated Arctic climate change. Most current climate models likely overestimate the climatological strength of the inversion, leading to excessive negative longwave feedback.

This is NOT your Father's Arctic!

FrankD

@Lodger: "We find that the surface inversion in fact intensifies Arctic amplification, because the ability of the Arctic wintertime clear-sky atmosphere to cool to space decreases with inversion strength."
She-yat. And here was me hoping that the more open water = more radiation feedback worked as well in reality as it worked in my head. To quote that great philosopher Bender Bending Rodriguez: "Well, we're boned."

Wayne, I can't answer your question about the NE Passage with actual numbers or anything clever like that, but if you look at the MODIS images for that time (Oct 15), I suspect you'll agree that reports of its closure have been greatly exaggerated. The critical narrows S of Severnaya Zemlya has disappeared into the Great White Hole for the next five months, but there is so much open water either side of the Taymyr Peninsula that its hard to imagine that the Vilkitsky Strait is closed yet.

Espen

The latest ice map from Russia:

http://www.aari.ru/odata/_d0015.php?lang=1&mod=0&yy=2011

Wayne Kernochan

@FrankD and Espen: thx. Now that I know what "nilas" is, I gather the Russia map is telling me that there's still a narrow open Northeast Passage if we say that centimeter-thick ice doesn't need an icebreaker. Definitions, anyone?

@Neven: More thoughts about the global record -- it appears that if we average .9 mkm2 area increase per day in the Arctic over the next 18 days, we have a good shot at a maximum under 20 mkm**2 (assuming the Antarctic continues its trend of near-zero anomaly), and, in fact, if we average less than 1 mkm2 Arctic area increase over the next 12 days things will be looking very good. The ice plot thickens ... :)- w

Werther

In the wake of a CAD count on SST’s in the Barentsz and Kara Seas, i’ve compared day temperatures of seven weather stations in the region.
This is a result of ‘warmth volume’ during twenty weeks (week 24-41):
2010 2011
Longyearbyen 138,00 153,20
Malye Karmakuly 168,30 188,40
Polargmo i Krekelj 13,50 30,00
Amderma 169,90 168,30
Ostrov Dikson 109,50 159,70
Ostrov Vize 26,50 60,70
Ostrov Golomjannyi 16,30 83,50

It’s clear the high SST’s are reflected in measured 2m temps. Only Amderma failed to surpass 2010, because it was on the fringe of the great Russian heatwave during july 2010. Relative winner was Ostrov Golomjannyi, on the Kara side of Severnaya Zemlya.
During weeks 40 and 41, temps returned closer to their ‘normal’ value. NCEP reflects this in lower anomalies for SST. Part of the warmth is probably still there, in deeper water layers. It will lead to thin ice this winter. Another part of the warmth may be responsible for the persistent lows on the Siberian side last week.

FrankD

CT have switched to SSMI in lieu of AMSR-E. Finally, I understand why CT's archive maps use a different colour scale to the daily images.

What are the bets on the maximum negative anomaly the area / "tale of the tape" will reach? (or did we do that already? I've been out of town...)

Currently 2.182 and falling. I think its too late in the year for it to beat 2007's -2.6 million, but it looks like it will fall a little further yet.

idunno

Hi all,

Skeptical science has posted a superb article on the decline of ASI volume.

D

Hi,

Sorry if this question is unsophisticated and general knowledge, but I am confused.

When I see comparisons of area and extent from different years that makes sense to me. But when I see comparisons of anomolies as FrandD made above it seems like an apples to oranges or moving goal post situation.

If the current anomoly is calculated from a 79-08 running mean and 2007 was calculated from a 75-04 running mean, as I think it was, are not the different years values not directly comparible? The mean value is on a constant decrease is it not? So 2011's anomoly includes the incredibly low value of 2007 in the mean. What would 2011's anomoly value be if it was based upon the same numbers as 2007's was? Would not the anomoly be much larger. If we are comparing 2007 to 2011 is that not the only way to really compare them?

Could someone provide a little instruction here as I assume that FrankD knows what he is doing and I just do not understand what is going on?

Thanks, Wyoming

Wayne Kernochan

@D: I think maybe even I can answer this.

What happens, as I understand it, is that the mean value is adjusted every year, but so is the amount of anomaly for all years. So in this year's comparisons, both 2007's anomaly and 2011's are based on the same 79-08 mean.

Bob Wallace

Jeff Masters has a new post concerning the coming winter weather and he brings in some discussion of the Arctic, ice loss and effects outside the Arctic. I'll copy a bit...


"How will Arctic sea ice loss affect the winter?

NOAA's annual Arctic Report Card discussed the fact that recent record sea ice loss in the summer in the Arctic is having major impacts on winter weather over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere. The Report Card states, "There continues to be significant excess heat storage in the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer due to continued near-record sea ice loss. There is evidence that the effect of higher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere in fall is contributing to changes in the atmospheric circulation in both the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes. Winter 2009 - 2010 showed a new connectivity between mid-latitude extreme cold and snowy weather events and changes in the wind patterns of the Arctic; the so-called Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern...With future loss of sea ice, such conditions as winter 2009 - 2010 could happen more often."

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1965

Paul Bivand

Thought you might like to usem the information in an email thread on the R-SIG-GEO mailing list: Reading National Snow and Ice Data Center binary files.

Archive thread at:https://stat.ethz.ch/pipermail/r-sig-geo/2011-October/013067.html.

Artful Dodger

"Arctic Ice Volume is diminishing even more rapidly than Area"
Posted on 21 October 2011 by Peter Hogarth

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Arctic_Volume_loss_2011.html

tks id!

Artful Dodger

More discussing on the positive feedback effect of Arctic atmospheric inversion in this article:

"Cold temperature inversions actually help warm the Arctic"
By Scott K. Johnson

http://arstechnica.com/science/news/2011/10/a-cold-blanket-helps-the-arctic-warm-up.ars

fred

Looking at NSIDC site, the trend seems to be heading for new record lows for the date. Are we taking a poll as to what the max will be this year? And what next year will be?

If we start off low, obviously the guess is that we will finish low. But I think given this year's behavior along the coasts, all it will take is a wrong set of currents to get the ice pack moving off of the North coast of Greenland and Canada and that could be all she wrote for 2012.

idunno

Hi all,

The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) team has reported, finding that the Earth has warmed exactly as reported by previous estimates. In press comments, they lay into climate sceptics, sugggesting that Rick Perry owes an apology to Phil Jones!

So far they have examined only land surface temperatures, and will now turn to ocean temps. They also find that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is of more importance than ENSO in the small annual fluctuations.

The BBC's Richard Black has a full report, coming soon to a side-bar near you.

Also, the BBC begins broadcasting a major new natural history series called "The Frozen Planet" next week.

Happily for me, I don't think I understand the new information on cold temperature inversions helping to warm the Arctic, linked by AD above.

Can anybody here elucidate if this is in anyway related to the bulge in the troposphere which was affecting stratospheric ozone levels?

Werther

Well, AFAICS the cold inversion theory could be illustrated by the severe cold over the CA during february/march last spring.
The bulge on top of the troposphere during the fall of 2010 triggered the anomalously powerful polar vortex of late winter. In the final stages the cold trickled down/concentrated, forming a layer of deep freeze over the region.
But the relatively abundant heat content of arctic open water and lower troposphere was mostly redistributed, trapped or stored. Not radiated out to ‘space’.
At the time, we wondered what the deep freeze might do to the ice around Baffin Island and the North West Passage. But after all, it didn’t make much difference. The ice melted out almost completely all over that region.
Cold inversion as a positive feedback confirmed….. through (regional) stabile layering of the troposphere and thus diminishing radiation.

Wayne Kernochan

OK, I was really excited by the latest cryosphere arctic area anomaly figures, until I noticed that the area figure and the date were exactly the same as the day before. I've got a bad feeling about this ... :) - w

Artful Dodger

ESA is recalibrating CryoSat-2's radio altimeter:
http://www.enewspf.com/latest-news/science-a-environmental/27863-cryosat-rocking-and-rolling-.html

dorlomin

As Hudson Bay stays ice free later in the year the US and Canda should experiance a large amount of additional snow as a sort of suped up great lakes effect.

I wonder if more open water will also increase the amount of snow accumulating on Greenland?

Andrew Xnn

Here is a graph of North American December Snow Anomalies. Last several years have been well above average.

Found this at the following site:

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nam&ui_month=12

Andrew Xnn

What is more significant from a climate and albedo feedback perspective, is the trend during the month of May:

Neven

Thanks for those graphs, Andrew!

I've been a bit busy working and writing an opinion piece for the new sustainability website Planet 3.0. The Arctic will soon take precedence again.

Artful Dodger

Rift spotted in Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf before upcoming expedition

A large crack has been spotted in the Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf in West Antarctica... The crack was seen and photographed on Oct. 14 by scientists aboard NASA’s DC-8

Looks like PIG is about to calve! (I've been waiting for a chance to say that ;^)

Cheers, Lodger

dorlomin

I take it this is likely to be a part of the PIG that is floating? If it does calve will this be thicker than the usual ice sheet ice bergs?

Michael Fliss

Check this out:

http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/10/27/2475002/cameras-stream-canadian-polar.html

http://www.explore.org/#!/photos/player/polar-bear-cam-setup

FrankD

PIG fanciers might like to note: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Antarctica_r03c02.2011297.terra.1km

The PIG is just above and to the left of centre, the very large glacier flowing towards the bottom of the image. If I read the image correctly (you'll need to zoom in to 250m resolution), you can see this crack - it runs two-thirds of the way across the glacier.

Scale: the average distance from the calving front to what I interpret to be the crack is a tad over 20 km's. NASA estimate the area downstream of the crack at 800 sq km. I think its about 500m thick at the nose (based on small scale RealClimate profile, so that would be 400 km^3 of ice.

"Thus fixing Global Warming once and for all!"
"But..."
"Once and for all!"

idunno

Hi all,

New satellite launched:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15488016

dorlomin

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00zj1q5/Frozen_Planet_To_the_Ends_of_the_Earth/

new beeb docu on the ice world.

Michael Fliss

Notes from yet another climate change site: This a map of Western Massachusetts, USA, October 28, 2011.

http://www.wwlp.com/subindex/weather/snow_forecast

And today the webcam from Churchill, Manitoba, Canada showed polar bears hanging out on snowless tundra waiting for the ice.

Al Rodger

Re - The BBCi programme linked to by dorlomin above.
Sadly BBCi does not reach globally. (That is, in the past such links have not worked in places beyond UK. How much of 'beyond' is thus deprived I know not.)

dorlomin

Sorry about not being available to all. I will have to keep an eye out for a torrent or something.

Here is the scene of an iceberg forming. Its really worth it to get it on highest resolution and full screen

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQ72d8xYqqQ

Timothy Chase

dorlomin, that youtube hasn't "been made available" this side of the pond. So I tried Firefox plugin for modifying the header. Nothing came up. I tried a plugin for proxies. Nothing. Finally I used a web-based proxy out of GB. I take it the Russian being spoken in the background isn't in the actual video?

adelady

Ha! I can't watch that clip .... but the series is starting here, today.

So I'm happy. The rest of you will have to wait a bit I expect.

Andrew Xnn

Here is a good recent video on melting of Greenland. Hopefully, it is available to everyone.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbJ0b8J5CGE&feature=related

crandles

How comparable do you think

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/ssmisdata/asi_daygrid_swath/n6250/2011/oct/asi-SSMIS-n6250-20111030-v5_visual.png

is with

http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsredata/asi_daygrid_swath/l1a/n6250/2010/oct/asi-n6250-20101030-v5_visual.png

Clearly first uses SSMIS data while second older one uses AMSRE data.

Artful Dodger

Seems to be more ground clutter in the nearshore with SSMI.

logicman

Two links for Arctic watchers.

Holocene dynamics of the Arctic's largest ice shelf:
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/10/18/1106378108.abstract

Overview of this years Arctic science findings:
http://www.mydigitalfc.com/knowledge/debate-continues-676
Unfortunate use of 'debate' - which it ain't - otherwise a good news article.

Derek

We are about a week away from when the cryosphere global sea ice area normally peaks.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.global.anom.1979-2008

This years peak looks like it could be a record low in the series.

Im sure it will freeze up now to spite me.

idunno

Hi all,

Just wanted to commend the articles in Live Science which is at the top right, "Storms may have prevented..."

At first glance, this looks very interesting, and the original research paper by Screen et al passed me by if it was referred to here...

In precis - the calmer the summer weather, the more ice melts. There is no trend towards less storminess, so the overall decline is due to FCAGW.

crandles

NSIDC monthly data for Oct:

2006 10 Goddard N 8.33 5.74
2007 10 Goddard N 6.77 4.21
2008 10 Goddard N 8.42 5.45
2009 10 Goddard N 7.52 4.92
2010 10 Goddard N 7.71 5.19
2011 10 NRTSI-G N 7.10 4.59

Second lowest on both extent and area; no surprises there.

Channel 6 UAH appears to have hit a record low in the record since it began in mid 2002.

crandles

Arctic sea ice news is also out
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/index.html

Wayne Kernochan

Well, I thought I'd weigh in, as with three days to go to the average global maximum area, 2011 global area at 2.52 mm2 is about 0.5 mm2 under the previous record. I would put the odds of a new record at above 90% at this point. In fact, I think there's a good chance that we may have already seen the maximum for this year, at 20.61 (about 2% below the previous record).

What was making the race tense was the fact that Antartic sea ice decline paused over the last 3-4 days, creating a positive anomaly -- a storm or measurement variation, maybe? It appears so, because that anomaly has started to reverse, and I fully expect more reversal the next day, balancing out the decrease in Arctic negative anomaly already reported. That only leaves two days, more or less, to make up 0.5 mm2 of anomaly; and that ain't likely to happen.

Btw, for those still interested in the freak October snowstorm here in the NE US: I live in eastern Massachusetts (I got an inch), while western Mass. got 2 1/2 feet, I hear. The problem was that it was wet, heavy snow with strong winds, so millions of people lost power and we're still trying to restore power here to about 200,000 of them, five days after the storm. The storm came toward the tail end of about two weeks of temps below average by about 10-15 degrees F, which in turn was preceded by two weeks of temps above average by about 10 degrees. The latest forecast is for temps about 10 degrees above average by Monday. Clearly, global cooling at work (sarcasm intended).

The oddest effect has been on NE leaves turning. The water saturation by Irene has apparently been one reason for the delay (it may be freezing above, but the roots keep pushing up water); anyway, most leaves had not begun to turn a week before Nov., and some of them have still not turned, while less than 1/3 of the leaves have fallen. Effectively, the fall foliage season here is more than a month late.

Andrew Xnn

Honestly don't think we've had much more than 2 days of temperatures significantly below average and at no time were they 15F below average for a day.

In fact, we've had so many above average days, that when we actually have an average day, people complain about how cold it is.

Wayne Kernochan

After (day before yesterday)'s global sea ice area dipped further, I was going to stick my neck out and say 20.61 mkm2 (two days before) was the new record -- and post it on "another broken record". But I see that (yesterday's) Arctic sea ice area bounded upwards by 240 kkm2, and an average Antarctic sea ice decline would take us right back to 20.61 mkm2. So I'm moving my odds of a new global maximum record up to 95% (only two days to average maximum), but holding off on saying it will be 20.61.

I also started looking ahead, as we did the beginning of this year, to the possibility of a new global minimum record. Before 2006, that minimum appears to never have dipped below 15 mkm2. The figures since (eyeballed):

2006 14.39 (still the record)
2007 14.63
2008 15.58
2009 15.11
2010 14.88
2011 14.41

It's odd, but probably not significant, that the Arctic minimum trends seem to mirror the global minimum trend, a year and a half later (the global minimum is usually around the end of January).

Anyway, given that Arctic ice area lately has been running below average in Jan., due apparently to freeze-up which is faster than in the past but not enough to catch up to the average, as well as Antarctic ice this year that seems to be unusually low-concentration, like last year, I am looking for another flirt with the global record minimum -- 2 months from now.

Derek

Cryosphere global sea ice area graph.

http://gfspl.rootnode.net/klimat/globalice.png

Neven

Thanks for that graph, Derek. I snatched it for the daily graphs page.

Kevin McKinney

Boy, that graph is a bit of a stunner--looking not at the "milestones," like the annual minimum and maximum, but at the integrated "time below the curve," this has clearly been a record low year for global anomaly.

maltose

PIOMAS has updated for October 2011! The Oct. 31st value for 2011 is 6.85 km^3 (vs. 7.56 km^3 for 2010).
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/

Wipneus

So I updated my graphs.
Daily arctic ice volume shows we are still in seasonally record low territory:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/piomas-trnd4.png

Exponential regressions of monthly arctic ice volume:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/piomas-trnd2.png
The trends of August and October are so close that the August curve is almost invisible.

Kevin McKinney

Maslowski's prediction sure looks good on your graphs, Wipneus.

Joshua Holmes

Wipenus,

On your exponential regression graph, it looks like your last August, September, and October data points are over the 2012 x-axis value. Is that a quirk of the software or some sort of optical illusion?

Wipneus

Joshua,
I think it is an illusion. I am not on the computer now, but I will add some gridlines tomorrow.

crandles

Josua I think Oct 11 dot is not over 2011 but at '2011 and 9.5/12ths'
Sept 11 at 2011 and 8.5/12ths

ie Oct 2011 is only 2 months shy of start of 2012.

You can see that October 11 is not directly above August 11.

So, I would suggest it is a feature not a bug.

Artful Dodger

Are you watching the Arctic Hurricane today in the Bering and Chukchi Seas?

Wipneus

Joshua,

I have added vertical grid lines to the graphic. https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/piomas-trnd2.png

And yes, the grid line on "2011" means 1st of January 2011. The monthly averages are plotted at the mid-month positions.

FrankD

Lodger, while you're making the popcorn, don't forget to flick over to check out the PIG during ad breaks.

The crack continues to propagate rapidly across the surface and will create an ice island about 3 times the size of the Petermann calving. When I first saw it I thought, "maybe a couple of months" but now, if I was a betting man, I'd be leaning towards a couple of weeks.

My thinking is the immediate cause might have been an earthquake in the South Pacific on October 9th, which was not exactly huge but was nicely positioned to pump energy right into Pine Island Bay. Just a guess - there's enough ice on the move that it's not like it needs an external trigger to explain it.

Sorry, Antarctic I know. I keep getting mixed up, being upside down and all...

Kevin McKinney

Another item from the news sidebar (btw, Neven, this is a good RSS feed you've got going!) Extracts follow:

According to Prof Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University, the ice that forms over the Arctic sea is shrinking so rapidly that it may vanish altogether in four years' time, destroying the natural habitat of animals like polar bears. . .

. . .citing research compiled by Dr Wieslaw Maslowski, a researcher from the American Naval Postgraduate School, Prof Wadhams said . . . [Maslowski's] calculations had him "pretty much persuaded."

Prof Wadhams said: "His (model) is the most extreme but he is also the best modeller around. It is really showing the fall-off in ice volume is so fast that it is going to bring us to zero very quickly. 2015 is a very serious prediction and I think I'm pretty much persuaded that's when it'll happen."

Another one comes 'round. . .

Neven

Kevin, I just use the words Arctic and "sea ice", but it captures most if not all relevant news articles on the net. :-)

This Peter Wadhams is the scientist who said in 2007 that "in the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly", so he came 'round a while ago. But it's interesting what he is saying. 2015 is not so far away.

BTW, I apologize for not doing much here. I've been receiving some mails with interesting research, but I have to get the focus and energy together to get going again.

Kevin McKinney

Dr. Wadhams also recently warned that drilling for oil in the Arctic is very dangerous (at least while there's sea ice around) because the oil can become encapsulated in the ice, which does a couple of bad things:

1) It hides the oil, hindering cleanup efforts;

2) It keeps the lighter fractions from evaporating, which means that the oil stays deadly for wildlife;

3) It transports the oil for long distances (up to 1000 km);

4) When the oil is released, still deadly, it tends to be at the edge of the pack, just where seabirds tend to concentrate.

That warning didn't seem to get all that much media traction, though.

As to your 'semi-hibernation' lately, no worries--it's not a 'job' and whatever you do will be warmly appreciated.

Speaking of 'what one can do', I wasn't going to cross-post this here, but I just this morning published this short story, which can stand as a (hopefully) non-preachy fictional approach to the climate change issue:

http://doc-snow.hubpages.com/hub/Responsibility-or-Driver-Boy-and-Girl

Then it's off to Canada on personal business for a few days, which will of course make my carbon footprint that much bigger. :-(

Christoffer Ladstein

Talking about carbon footprint, Kevin, I've noticed some articles focusing upon the lack of interest for the Climate Issue these days, how "strange" that is: The World Economy gets in trouble and pizzz goes the worries about changing the climate....
It ought to send us chills down our spine; a new world need to find a new path economically speaking, agree?!

The winter "hurricane" in the Bering area must be whipping the fresh made ice/nilas into "cream" and eating away several meters of the already pristine and troubled seashore along the Alaskian coast; this must be the nightmare come true for the natives struggling for their homes and estates up there, where the US government probably "don't give a shit" what's happening.... Had a drilling platform been adrift, then the willingness to spend money would have risen no matter what!

Well, have fun, and do "hibernate" as much as you feel for, the interesting stuff is still many months ahead, so we better save up some energy:-).

Neven

Swedish snow in November no show

According to meteorologists, the month of November has so far seen the least snow in over a hundred years in Sweden, in stark contrast to last year's late autumn blizzards.

”We haven't had this little snow in Sweden at this time a year since 1905 when they started to measure snow depth,” said Per Stenborg, meteorologist at Sveriges Television (SVT).

Right now only a small area of north western Sweden has snow, and only a thin cover at that.

According to Stenborg, in 1953 Swedes were forced to wait for winter until November 8th, but this year, that date sailed by and still most of Sweden is green.

According to Swedish meteorologic agency SMHI, meteorological winter arrives when average daily temperatures are consistently below freezing.

Could the Barents Sea have something to do with that? They say they had lots of snow last year, and around this time the Barents Sea had started to freeze up. Will it snow in Lappland when Barents starts to freeze up?

To quote the final part of the article:

"If by winter you mean snow and minus degrees during the day you're in for a wait," said Stenborg at SVT.

"It's going to get a bit more chilly, but winter - no, not for a while longer."

Werther

Could the Barentsz Sea have anything to do with ‘no snow’ in Sweden?
Well, on the 25th of sep I wondered whether Europe would be in for a long lasting, warm fall or for ‘snowmageddon’. On the 29th I put out an SST calculation on the Barentsz and Kara Seas. Now its six weeks later. The 500 hPa charts showed consistent high ridging over Europe up to Svalbard and/or Novaya Zemlya. It sure looks as though the SST’s have contributed to enhanced Rossby wave features around the polar front. An omega blockade over Europe is firmly settled for over three weeks now.
It featured weird lows over the Mediterranean and sudden flows of warmth over Svalbard. It gave 7 degrees Celsius mean anomalies in temps over France, the Low Countries and Germany. And no snow in Scandinavia. I can’t remember having my wine on a café terrace in the sun, no coat, on 5 november!
No ‘snowmageddon’?
For that, the Rossby waves should shift. I think the Barentsz and Kara still have to release a lot of heat. That should happen soon. In phase with change elsewhere (Chukchi, Hudson Bay) patterns may start moving.
Of course, this is all guesswork. I’m trying to make sense what the low SIE means for NH weather. I’m not sure how the Big Bering Storm fits in here. But remarkable weather seems in high gear and somehow interrelated.
As for the refreeze, I’m not impressed by nilas and young ice. Don’t rely to much on extent; it covers the warmer waters just thin. With all that cyclonic activity I have a hunch we’re in for a low maximum extent and volume refill.

Diablobanquisa.wordpress.com

I don´t know if it has been quoted:
Warm water reappears in Spitsbergen fjords

Neven

Nice link, Diablo. Gracias!

Christoffer Ladstein

The last 30 days at Longyearbyen, Svalbard, have been 4,2 C-degrees above normal, but if the current forcast is reliable, King Winter will enter the stage very soon...
http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/long.html

Also mainland Norway have a severe winter"problem", witnessing new November records in Bergen of close to 18C, and yesterday I did a old old ladys lawn, here close to Oslo. So those with interest for skiing must seek out the ever shrinking glaciers! The WorldCup skiing circus in both Scandinavia and also the rest of Europe is postponed, sharing the destiny of the crumbling economies...

BTW, nice analysis, Werther!

Chris Biscan

http://gifshack.com/203

Wow!!!!!

Climate Changes

Either a record low for this time of year or a glitch!

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png

There has been a hell of a lot of warm air going up the north Atlantic for the last 3 weeks or so. As someone has mentioned has slowed the ice formation on the Greenland sea. Heading towards a Negative AO so perhaps that may help the ice.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html

L. Hamilton

AJP, the DMI extent graph is showing much the same thing. CT has updated only through 11/8, but will be interesting to watch.

Artful Dodger

Neven, may I suggest that you open a "November 2011 Open Thread"? Takk!

L. Hamilton

CT area, the surviving daily time series, shows 2011 still near the bottom as of 11/10: very slightly higher than 2007, lower than 2008.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/sea_ice_N_this_date.png

L. Hamilton

Sorry, 2011 area on 11/10 is slightly *lower* than 2007 and *higher* than 2009. They're so close they look tied in the graph.

Wayne Kernochan

@Neven: OK, now can we declare a new global sea ice maximum record low? It's well past the average maximum time and the Arctic results suggest tomorrow will see another dip ... - w

L. Hamilton

Wayne, a bar graph showing yearly max (and 2011 through 11/9):

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/sea_ice_CTglobal_max_to_date.png

Climate Changes

Wayne, the minimum is declared 'officially' by NOAA/NASA and that lot. The media uses their figures/ announcements to make it public cause as we know Bremen's minimum didn't count much. Anyway, the graphs are there in black and white for those of us who like the truth no matter what the media publishes.

Neven

Neven, may I suggest that you open a "November 2011 Open Thread"? Takk!

Is it November already? Sorry, Lodger. Tempus fugit.

Here it is: November 2011 Open Thread

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