Arctic methane: Russian researchers report

I vowed not to talk about this because it literally makes me sick to my stomach, but it's too important to deny. We all know about the vast deposits of methane clathrates on the Siberian continental shelf. They are kept in place by pressure and low temperatures. However, the temperatures (SAT as well as SST) are getting less and less low in the Arctic, so in theory it could mean that these deposits come loose and leave the ocean floor to end up in the atmosphere. Methane is a much more potent greenhouse gas than CO2 and some extinction events in the distant past have been linked to the deadly feedback of warming->methane release->more warming->more methane release->etc.

No one is really sure what is going on exactly with those methane deposits, but in the past years there has been much speculation (undoubtedly caused by the spectacular retreat of summer sea ice in the region) and reporting of a probable increase of methane bubbling up from the Siberian continental shelf. And so the results of this year's Russian research mission were eagerly awaited. Mind you, not by me.

It seems the results are in and were reported at AGU last week.
The Independent reports with this article:

Shock as retreat of Arctic sea ice releases deadly greenhouse gas

Russian research team astonished after finding 'fountains' of methane bubbling to surface

Dramatic and unprecedented plumes of methane – a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide – have been seen bubbling to the surface of the Arctic Ocean by scientists undertaking an extensive survey of the region.

The scale and volume of the methane release has astonished the head of the Russian research team who has been surveying the seabed of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf off northern Russia for nearly 20 years.

In an exclusive interview with The Independent, Igor Semiletov, of the Far Eastern branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said that he has never before witnessed the scale and force of the methane being released from beneath the Arctic seabed.

"Earlier we found torch-like structures like this but they were only tens of metres in diameter. This is the first time that we've found continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures, more than 1,000 metres in diameter. It's amazing," Dr Semiletov said. "I was most impressed by the sheer scale and high density of the plumes. Over a relatively small area we found more than 100, but over a wider area there should be thousands of them."

Scientists estimate that there are hundreds of millions of tonnes of methane gas locked away beneath the Arctic permafrost, which extends from the mainland into the seabed of the relatively shallow sea of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. One of the greatest fears is that with the disappearance of the Arctic sea-ice in summer, and rapidly rising temperatures across the entire region, which are already melting the Siberian permafrost, the trapped methane could be suddenly released into the atmosphere leading to rapid and severe climate change.

Dr Semiletov's team published a study in 2010 estimating that the methane emissions from this region were about eight million tonnes a year, but the latest expedition suggests this is a significant underestimate of the phenomenon.

Continue reading here...

I guess this is the graph to keep an eye on (courtesy of Al Rodger):

The numbers for this graph were derived from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory.

The increase in global atmospheric methane concentrations had slowed down for a while, but has picked up again since 2006, as reported by the World Meteorological Organization (via ClimateProgress):

Methane (CH4) contributes about 18% to the overall global increase in radiative forcing since 1750 and is the second most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide.

Before the start of the industrial era, atmospheric methane was about 700 parts per billion (number of molecules of the gas per billion molecules of dry air) Since 1750, it has increased 158%, mostly because of activities such as cattle-rearing, rice planting, fossil fuel exploitation and landfills. Human activities now account for 60% of methane emissions, with the remaining 40% being from natural sources such as wetlands.

After a period of temporary relative stabilization from 1999 to 2006, atmospheric methane has again risen. Scientists are conducting research into the reasons for this, including the potential role of the thawing of the methane-rich Northern permafrost and increased emissions from tropical wetlands.

There's more info in this excellent SkS post from earlier this year: Wakening the Kraken

And from last year this blog post on Hot Topic: Siberian seabed methane, first numbers

Comments

[idunno]

Hi all,

A very authoritative piece on all of this, from Prof Peter Wadhams:

http://arctic-news.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/rebuttal-imminent-collapse-of-arctic.html

(It might also be worthwhile to link to this site on the right margin, Neven. Some other interesting material here. Your call.)

[Neven]

Thanks, idunno. I'm not really sure what to make of AMEG (that's their blog). They are very eager to start geoengineering, and I don't know if I want to start legitimizing that (yet).

[Neven]

Tamino has an interesting post on methane.

[Werther]

New AIRS graphs and a thorough Tamino blog entry put methane on the list once more. AIRS lights up in deep red high in the troposphere right over the ESAS. Barrow flask samples show no spectacular rise. What is going on? The sea level measurements at Barrow do show a mean 1% a year rise (1875 – 1895 ppb from ‘07 to now). Meanwhile, Tiksi or Ostrov Kotelnyi measurements would be more informative. Normally, methane easily rises up in the atmosphere, FI over the tropics. Released from the ESAS, why would it first mix on sea level, showing up in Barrow or even as far/high as on Mauna Loa? My guess is it’s rising more or less straight up over the place of it’s origins. The release is not to be expected evenly spread over all Arctic permafrost areas. There are a number of reasons why submerged permafrost in the Laptev Sea would be releasing more now than other possible locations. FI the anomalous influx of warmer Atlantic water during 2011.

[Apocalypse4Real]

New data from Yurganov posted on methane (CH4) PPBV in the NH Arctic comparing Nov 1-10 2008 with Nov 1-10 2011.

There is a substantial increase especially in the East Siberian Sea Area and it seems linked to the observations of Shakhova's presentation data at the AGU in December, 2011.

The link is: http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

[crandles]

On those AIRs pics, 'substantial increases' shown like orange to red are an increase of something like 1880 to 1900. ie. 20ppb over 3 years.

Yes perhaps the plateau has ended, but has the rate of increase greatly increased compared to say 1990s' rate of increase?

Looks about same as 1990s' rate of increase to me and slower than 1980s' rate of increase.

So should we take it as something unusual and worrying? It isn't something to be happy about, but if you are looking for evidence of a *massive* increase in levels/emissions compared to past rates of increases then this isn't it.

[Daniel Bailey]

"if you are looking for evidence of a *massive* increase in levels/emissions compared to past rates of increases then this isn't it"

That rather depends on the context, doesn't it? If one is comparing the last 3 years of methane atmospheric composition changes to that of the several previous decades, then perhaps.

However, if one looks to methane atmospheric composition changes on a broader level, say the past 2,000 years, then the level of change is quite "substantial":

[Source]

'Nuther d*mn hockey stick...

[Apocalypse4Real]

The BBC news is reporting on a new methane release report by Katey Walter Anthony from the University of Alaska at Fairbanks (UAF). She specializes in methane release from permafrost. Her new co-authored paper is in Nature Geoscience.

The BBC link is:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18120093

[Apocalypse4Real]

A NYT follow-up article/blog by Gillis in Katey Anthony's research on Arctic permafrost methane release:

http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/21/popping-the-cap-on-arctic-methane/

[L. Hamilton]

The online preview (with graphics) of Katey Anthony's methane article in Nature Geoscience:
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1480.html

[Apocalypse4Real]

crandles

"Yes perhaps the plateau has ended, but has the rate of increase greatly increased compared to say 1990s' rate of increase?"

There is something to note about the Barrow CH4 readings that may mean a "jump" compared to prior years. The following May month end readings:

2009 May approx 1860 PPBV
2010 May approx 1875 PPBV
2011 May approx 1875 PPBV
2012 May approx 1915 PPBV

A move of 40 PPBV, and more significantly, no decline as in prior years cycles for mid year readings. Time will tell on what the new readings might mean.

[Apocalypse4Real]

For those following Arctic methane release, the following research news points to shoreline Yedoma as a under-studied source of carbon and methane release.

The paper, published in Nature, is available from the U. of Manchester, UK.

http://www.manchester.ac.uk/aboutus/news/display/?id=8640

[Artful Dodger]

NASA - Study Finds Surprising Arctic Methane Emission Source

The fragile and rapidly changing Arctic region is home to large reservoirs of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. As Earth’s climate warms, the methane, frozen in reservoirs stored in Arctic tundra soils or marine sediments, is vulnerable to being released into the atmosphere, where it can add to global warming. Now a multi-institutional study by Eric Kort of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., has uncovered a surprising and potentially important new source of Arctic methane: the ocean itself.

The data was collected as part of the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) airborne campaign. HIPPO operated over the Arctic during five flights from 2009 to 2010.

The data predates recent Arctic ocean methane emission observations, and shows that the trend is building. The study was published April 22, 2012 in Nature Geoscience.