« NSIDC calls maximum extent | Main | NSIDC Arctic sea ice news April 2012 »

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Neven

I think my updates will mainly revolve around CT SIA data, as only CT now offers daily data that allow us to compare to previous years. Of course I'll be referring to other stuff as well, but the set-up will be similar to last year's updates, ie total numbers (the horse race), regional aspects, atmospheric 'hindcast' and forecast, links.

But first I want to be sure we are not getting an even later SIA maximum. ;-)

Heraclitus

crandles, thanks for the data link - the graphs I could find ;-)
What's the difference between the third and fourth column? I thought at first they were area and extent but sometimes one is greater and at other times the other. Is that possible?

Arcticicelost, thanks for the pointer - I had wondered what had happened.

Neven

The NSIDC has changed their daily graph:

NSIDC has updated our processing of the daily sea ice extent graph. NSIDC calculates daily extent using a five-day average of the data. Previously, this average was a five-day centered mean, meaning that the final two days of data in the series were extrapolated from the previous three days.

The new method takes the average of the previous five days, so that readers will see fewer “wiggles” in the tail end of the data series (see animation, left). The value of the trailing mean lags the actual data values, so sea ice values will appear lower when ice extent is increasing, but will appear larger when ice is decreasing. The climatology is a 9-day running mean rather than a 5-day, so the climatology line also shifts slightly with this change.

Werther

Here's a long, visual, arbitrary assessment of day 109 MODIS ice quality:
Each pic representing 1 MK of Arctic realm:
R05c02:
2012 , parallellogram break-up over 40% within broad leads
2011 , leads over 30%, mostly integer pack
2010 , dispersed fragmentation within intensive leads over 50%
R0503:
2012 , parallellogram break-up over 10%, leads everywhere else
2011 , leads all over
2010 , extensive broad leads filled with rubble
R0504:
2012 , rhomboid break-up over 10%, wind-polynia’s 10 %, extensive leads everywhere else
2011 , intensive break up over 20%, wind-polynia’s over 1000 km long, extensive leads
2010 , leads in central section, some wind-polynia’s, mostly quite integer pack
R0402:
2012 , initial leads forming, McClure Sound integer
2011 , consolidated lead structure, McClure Sound integer
2010 ,intensive leads, McClure Sound /Amundsen Gulf breaking up
R0403:
2012 , small leads 50%
2011 , small leads 20%, mostly integer pack
2010 , intensive leads 60%
R0404:
2012 , rhomboid break-up over 10%, small leads 50 %, integer pack 40%
2011 , fragmentation break up over 5%, small leads 40%, integer pack 50%
2010 , intensive small leads 60%, mostly quite intact pack 40%
R0405:
2012 , intensive break-up, nilas formation everywhere, almost open Khatanga Bay
2011 , intensive break up everywhere, some wind-polynia’s
2010 , rhomboid break-up over 10%, intensive leads 50 %, integer pack 30%, wind-polynia’s 10%
R0302:
2012 , 15% polynia’s, 30% rhomboid intensive break-up, rest intensive leads
2011 , initial break-up, intensive leads 70%, integer pack 20%
2010 , intensive leads 90%, some polynia’s
R0303:
2012 , intensive leads 40%, mostly integer pack 60%
2011 , intensive leads 35%, mostly integer pack 65%
2010 , extensive leads 100%, Nares Strait fluid
R0304:
2012 , fragmented 40%, extensive leads 60%
2011 , fragmented 35%, intensive leads 60%, polynia’s 5%
2010 , fragmented 30%, extensive leads 60%, polynia’s 10%
R0305:
2012 , open sea 30%, fragmented and nilas 60%, extensive leads 10%
2011 , open sea 25%, fragmented and nilas 60%, extensive leads 15%
2010 , open sea 10%, fragmented and nilas 60%, extensive leads 30%

Evaluation when given 1/2/3 points:
- 2010 worst
- 2011 best
- 2012 just a little bit worse than 2011

Conclusion: the difference is small, weather 2012 will decide...

Werther

Maybe I've been rather cryptic above. This is what I usually do each day, comparing MODIS (while my wife laments...). To be as objective as possible, I gave my arbitrary assessments a value for the last three years. In that way, 2010 ranks 19 points over 11 MODIS pics, 2012 got 21, 2011 came up to 26 points.
This is what you get out of a society that created 'idols'...
But honestly, I have to admit 2012 isn't immediately set for a record low extent...

crandles

Heraclitus
4th column is average for that day of the year over 1979 to 2008.

2nd column is anomoly from 4th column figure

3rd column actual

so 2nd col + 4th col = 3rd col
(BTW the data is also linked from graph page)

Chris Biscan

The Sea Level peaks later in the year. The troughing part of this season will be much lower than past.

Ice melt the last two years was huge. But so was back to back precipitation years on land, as well as La Nina.

We will probably bottom out right where it shows for Jan-Feb.


I look forward to the recant posts by denier blogs about the sea level rise not happening.

Heraclitus

(BTW the data is also linked from graph page)
Doh!
Was that there before? I'm guessing so.
I probably could have worked the other bits out myself too.

Well, at least I now know where to get my daily ice-fix again.

Neven

I look forward to the recant posts by denier blogs about the sea level rise not happening.

I think they rather whine about the changes in the NSIDC extent graph during their favourite Arctic season (ie when the changes are smallest). Makes one's stomach churn.

Account Deleted

Chris, Now skeptics have gone into conspiracy (theory of falsification of scientific data).

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/12/envisats-satellite-failure-launches-mysteries/

Or that the data is not correct.

http://www.real-science.com/noaa-tide-gauge-sea-level-trend-1-04-mmyear

Kris

Arcticicelost80 wrote:

Now skeptics have gone into conspiracy

What do politicians do when some fraud, theft, deception ecc.. ecc.. around and/or about them had been unveiled?

Yes, exactly, when everything fails they start an argument about a conspiration against them.

So, this is a political reaction in the first place.

Nothing to wonder about, because, as we all should know, behind the troop of deniers are hidden huge political and economical intrests.

Account Deleted

"Nothing to wonder about, because, as we all should know, behind the troop of deniers are hidden huge political and economical intrests."

Just funny that this work is in the shuffle. Global warming is still regardless the efforts of politicians and economists.

I remember the summer of 2010, when the disaster broke out in central Russia. The population fled, fires blazed on millions of acres, 20 daily records within 30 days and overall record was exceeded 5 times for 140 years of observations.
http://pogoda.ru.net/monitor.php?id=27612&month=7&year=2010
http://pogoda.ru.net/monitor.php?id=27612&month=8&year=2010

Then, skeptics nothing could say, but merely justified that in this phenomenon global warming is not more than 15%. And such a thing happens only once every 5000 years!

Neven

There is much praying for a crossing of the average in the church of latter day denialists. I'm praying for it too, as it will mean more century breaks later on. ;-)

crandles

Just 104k away and we have gained 3 times that amount in last 6 days. Just another 2 or 3 days like last few days and we could be there....

And what would that imply? Will we have been above the mean for long? Or above 1 standard deviations below mean for a third of the last year or more? OK, we have been above 2 standard deviations below mean for more than 5% of last year. Does that mean there is no significant trend? I think not.

Account Deleted

http://meteoinfo.ru/images/misc/temp10i.gif
In the coming days, the most active ice melting will occur in the Sea of Okhotsk (positive temperature prevailing there)

John Christensen

crandles:

It seems to me the Arctic climate still supports a slightly higher level of SIA (not trying to include the MYI here..) than what resulted from the 2006/07 melt-out, so in the absence of any strong favorable or unfavorable weather events, we should see some increase again compared to the past 12 months, though clearly still below the 1979-08 average.

The exposure of surface water to the air especially in the Arctic Basin and Kara Sea back in Jan/Feb should have caused a significant heat exchange with the atmosphere, so that now the top water layers in these regions have cooled and support the new ice better than would otherwise have been the case.

Comparing to the past six years we are close to the 2009 and '10 SIA levels, so I would optimistically hope we end up with a summer SIA minimum above 3,5mkm2.

Let's see..

me.yahoo.com/a/nSjChi4X3vr8X3DRw93GkY1.cerja.8nvWk-

John, I'd be surprised if that were the case since all the excess ice is in the Bering, and is not very thick. Also since it's a cool phase PDO we'd expect in influx of warmer water into the Bering.

Phil.

John Christensen

I know; the guestimate was a simple view of how summer minimums have corresponded with SIA levels at this time in recent years.

SSTs are high, especially in the Barents Sea, and the question is whether the albedo effect from higher than usual SIA in Bering will offset the influx of warmer water, which I guess it will not. And Kara and Arctic Basin sea ice is thin. Plenty of reasons to be concerned..

Philiponfire

I seriously doubt that any significant amount of new ice has formed in the last few days. this is just wind blowing ice south into warmer waters. this is clearly visible in the Bering Baffin bay and Baltic. Same applies in the Greenland sea. more ice moving into Fram strait is improving extent in what way exactly? Okhotsk moves into generally positive day time temperatures for the rest of the month (normal for the time of year) so while the illusion is extent increase there the reality is melting ice. I think that it will take an extraordinary weather event to stop the ice melting to lower than 2007 this year.

John Christensen

CT NH SIA has been within 30kkm2 for the past 10 days, so what has been gained in some areas is being lost in other.

However, the Arctic Basin has gained about 200kkm2 since March 20th, and Kara has gained about 150kkm2 in the past two weeks, while Greenland Sea has gained just 80kkm2 in the past 3 weeks.

Since we are talking about SIA and not extent, there should be little inflation of the numbers due to ice spreading by wind, unless CT is incapable of calculating the SIA correctly.

John Christensen

For Okhotsk, CT has a loss of more than 400kkm2 since April 1 so yes, extent increase would truly be an illustration. Where do you get your numbers from?

John Christensen

An illusion, sorry.

Phil263

John

Masie and DMI (30% extent) both show SIE slightly increasing so that is consistent with SIA reported by CT. Unless I am missing something, this would tell me that we have freezing, rather than just the ice spreading. According to Masie, extent increases for Day 109 were as follows:

Barents: +12.4 k
Greenland:+15.7k
Bering: +8.7 k

Also I note that there is currently more than 1.2 million sqkm of sea ice in the Bering Sea. This will take a while to melt and I do not think that we will see Nome ice free before June 1st as we did in 2010 and 2011. This late melt will almost surely have a ripple effect on the whole arctic basin.
Unlike Philiponfire, I think that unless we have some extraordinary weather this coming summer, we will see a much higher minimum than we did in 2010 and 2011. Note than in 2010, even though we started from a higher and later maximum, SIA was already under 13 million at this date!

Phil263

2003 is not long ago and the minimum SIA for that year was 4.14 million.
There would be nothing exceptional to have minimum bouncing up to near that level in 2012; And my view, denialists should have nothing to celebrate (although I am sure we will see Monkton on a grand tour of the world to spread the word) , as one year above the trend does not invalidate the trend.

John Christensen

Phil263:

I am fully with you that we should see some rebound and that the current SIA leaves us in a favorable position at this time of the season.

That said; the post-2007 ice-pack is very different to what it was before, so a CT minimum above 3.5 million km2 would be a very good outcome this year IMO.

As an example of the strength of the ice-pack in earlier years check 1996 on CT, where the winter max SIA was just below 14 million km2 (as this year), but summer min SIA stayed well above 5 million km2.

John Christensen

That said; extent is a less reliable measure than area, as mentioned by Philiponfire above, so I normally just go with CTs slightly delayed SIA numbers.

Even SIA estimation is prone to error, but evidently this was also the case in earlier years, so the same margin of error would apply.

Also, with SIA, it still bugs me that CT (apparently pure daily values) and Arctic ROOS (running-average values) seem to be in reasonable agreement on normals and standard deviation for the winter period, but deviate significantly on their values for the summer period. Any advice, anyone?

Chris Biscan

http://i174.photobucket.com/albums/w109/frivolousz21/F15SI20120419IC0.png?t=1334888994

You guys are using wishful thinking with numbers and not reality, but it's happening all over the internet, and it has happened before and every time it's an illusion.

This is an illusion. The Bering is loaded with crappy super thin ice that is already melting out with only a decent warm pattern, but one that is coming and persisting.

http://i174.photobucket.com/albums/w109/frivolousz21/F15SI20120419IC0.png?t=1334888994

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r06c03.2012111.aqua

The ice in the Bering is crap. Let's not think just because it's more extensive it will last longer, not at that latitude. Not unless it was 1-2 meters thick, it's not, it's mostly .25 to .75 meters. That will be buzz cut by the solar insolation and warm air coming off Alaska as Spring goes on.

Maybe if the perfect pattern continues then maybe.

but that leaves another part of the arctic vulnerable.

http://i174.photobucket.com/albums/w109/frivolousz21/compday-109.gif?t=1334897475

The arctic is already breaking down rather fast.

the extent is because an amazingly consistant pattern has caused the Bering to freeze up more with a wide thin blanket of cracked floes.

The Kara and Barents picked up ice later on that is very thin.

no matter how white it looks on satellite it's thin. Most of it will be.5 to 1.5 meters if that.


The MYI, the real thick good MYI has been crushed again.


Oh, here is the latest methane chart:

http://i174.photobucket.com/albums/w109/frivolousz21/ARCTpolar2012-2.jpg?t=1334894021

yeah, not good.


Chris Biscan

Phil263,

There is no chance barring massive climate shift for that to happen.

No chance.

crandles

>"The ice in the Bering is crap. Let's not think just because it's more extensive it will last longer"

(Please forgive the repetition of the language.)
and last year wasn't 'crap'?

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r06c03.2011111.terra

Why shouldn't we think more extensive of similarly bad ice won't last longer or do you see worse quality than last year?

Apocalypse4Real

I expect an accleration of the SIA and SIE drop in the next two weeks.

Both the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation appear to be set to go negative for most of the next two weeks.

Kevin McKinney

I don't claim to have the faintest idea of what 'will' happen to the ice this year; I make WAGs, and usually they are worth just what you would expect.

However, I have to disagree with this: "This late melt will almost surely have a ripple effect on the whole arctic basin."

My perception is that the pack's geographical structure can and does differ greatly from year to year, and that what happens in one area does not necessarily have any great influence upon remote areas. I think historical comparisons will support this.

In general, I think the discussion above is highly speculative at best--melt/freeze 'forcing conditions' in the Arctic can change on a dime, or persist way past anything we might have expected. I highly doubt that current conditions constrain what will happen before mid-September nearly as much as some of the comments seem to imply.

Philiponfire

thing is crandles any extra ice area in the Bering is inevitably further south and will logically be exposed to warmer water and air and get more sun exposure as a sweeping generalisation.

crandles

>"any extra ice area in the Bering is inevitably further south and will logically be exposed to warmer water and air and get more sun exposure as a sweeping generalisation."

The broadests measures are more ice per PIOMAS and less energy to melt it due to more area of ice with high albedo. Thinner ice has slightly lower albedo but I think the higher ice area will dominate.

Weather can certainly matter more than these factors as can other things.

I do wonder if there has been more ice flushed out of Chukchi to Bering causing greater area in Bering while Chukchi area remains filled by thin slices turning onto their side. This would leave areas in Chukchi with thinner ice. Maybe you are talking about this sort of displacement of ice to where it will melt faster rather than 'extra ice'?

If it is just 'extra ice' in Bering, then yes it melts at a faster rate than other areas in the arctic basin. But 'extra ice' melting at a rate appropriate to location still takes more time and delays start of faster melt of Chukchi. So I don't see much sense to your post unless you are talking displacement rather than 'extra ice'.

If the Chukchi is thinner due to displacement of more ice, then perhaps melt will catch up as the Chukchi melts.


PIOMAS should be aware of thin ice in Barents & Kara because it will have been informed of large open areas in March. Altlantification of Barents should also be built in to some extent with SST asimililation.

John Christensen

The combination of high pressure areas over both the Canadian Archipelago as well as over the Laptev/East Siberian Seas that have been in place for more than a week seem to be keeping temperatures negative across most of the central seas and all the way down to James Bay in Hudson.

From Wunderground these should be noon temperatures; are these temperatures consistent with other sources?

Note the high wind and -10C around the northern part of Novaya Zemlya; should help crushing the ice, building more ahead of spring/summer melt. Interesting that this apparently builds no ice on the Barents side of Zemlya.

Peter Ellis

I note with some amusement that Steve Goddard's made such a palaver out of the NSIDC graph change that even Anthony Watts thinks he's a dick.

Espen

Hi guys

What happened to the ASSAR images? They were pretty handy!

Kalle GZ

Hi everyone.

I actually am expected a decline about the same as 1979-2000 average for quite a while. Why? Well, look at the decline for the different regions on CA for the last couple of days.

Sea of Okhotsk has been declining rapidly the past week... like its supposed to. If you look at the area now compared to normal, you can see that area is still around average for the Sea of Okhotsk.

Baffin/Newfoundland Bay looks like its starting to decline again. If it does, nothing special there, area is supposed to be declining right now.

Bering Sea is starting to decline at around the average rate. Maybe slightly faster but the Bering Sea is well above average, so you'd expect a big decline there/

Also, the Kara Sea, Barents Sea, and Hudson Bay have been increasing over the past couple of days. If this continues, it will counterweight any strong decline in the other regions, still causing a overall normal decline for the day.

Lets just see what happens in the next week and see if I'm right, or if I fail.

Chris Biscan

FYI only grows to 1.5-2 meters thick in a single season at the max it also has a salinty 3-4 times higher than MYI.

Let's stop right there, how is the MYI doing? Yeah, Next Question.

How will the arctic stay cool enough when global surface temps and tlts are in the top 5 on record all summer?

It wont.

Considering years before 2007 and further back even to the 90s were as warm as right now. Why can't the ice recovery to those levels or at least pre 2007 levels?

again, the MYI is decimated, ergo ice volume is much lower. Which means ice thickness is much lower. Once ice reaches around 1-1.5 meters it can start letting solar insolation through to the water below, which creates a heat wrap around the ice from all angles. So melt rapidly intensifies. It should be noted that previously to the last 5 years, in situ melting was never anywhere close to the 3+ meters in some cases. Even MYI upwards of 3 meters has nearly melted out or has melted out in one summer because solar insolation can easily penetrate to the water below.

Maybe the Pattern can do it?

Can the pattern artificially create new cold? If not, then the pattern even if it's designed to hold cold in the arctic all summer. The cold is not there because the Earth is warmer overall enough to not let it be possible with as much heat exchange takes place to do such a thing without intervention from another source, IE a volcano.

What about other factors?

PDO? no change

Grand solar min? no change

Beaufort Gyre? doesn't matter, not enough thick ice to protect from solar radiation

AMO? Has shown no affect on the ice either way in any recent time and is probably the largest fools gold there is in weather and climate.


So how does the ice recover?

We build a time machine that transports us back to 1975 and we get our memories wiped and the ice will be recovered from today.


Chris Biscan

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnnh.html


The GFS and Europe both go -NAO and warm the arctic up quite a bit in big early melt spots.

Baffin Bay, Kara and Barents, Down slope winds into the Bering Sea, SOO gets nailed for a while, that ice and snow is trashed quick. Most of Western Asia will be snow free in a week.


http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2012&ui_day=111&ui_set=2

The snow fall anomaly is going to expand on both continents quite a bit the next 10 days.

Especially Asia.

It's amazing without fail the early warm Spring hits.

The faster the snow is gone the faster the NH warms up and the faster the arctic loses it's land snow albedo protection.

By May it will likely by in the 4-6 million km2 range below normal.


The SOO will be down a few thousand kilometers of ice in 10 days.

If the models are right. The Bering Sea will experience periods of southerly winds as well as Easterly and South Easterly and on and off warm temps with a possible very warm period. That would send ice loss there in over drive.

The Kara has an SLP form in the Greenland Sea/Arctic Basin while a decent 1030HP forms in the Kara in 2-2.5 days then goes to 1040mb and gets large over the Kara and Slides along the Siberian coast while weakening and getting larger. This brings very warm air to the Kara with a tight gradient for Southerly and South West winds with a receding snow pack and very warm air slamming over it to reach the water. Winds will compress ice into main pack, I would expect very large polyanas to form and for the Kara to see large losses.


This would reverse this. I doubt it stays like this. Take a look at the models. It's a perfect storm of events for a rapid ice loss.

A huge cyclone forms over the Eastern US and Moves North to the Baffin Bay. And slams warm air and southerly winds into that ice pack there for 4-5 days.

This is a huge over all change in the pattern.

This would give

Kris

Melt season definitely has kicked off in central Alaska

Remarkable, right on spot in the 3th week of April, just as it does every year.
Dispite the unusually harsh 2011/2012 Winter there.

Neven

I agree with Chris that things look poised for rapid and big drops in the coming week.

It's also interesting to see that when the ice gets pushed south in the Bering Sea things don't seem to freeze over behind it.

It'll be interesting to see what that high over Kara will do.

Kevin McKinney

"...the Pattern..."

Was that a Roger Zelazny reference?

Daniel Bailey

Yeah, Kevin, that was my first thought, too.
Loved Lord of Light.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lord_of_Light

Philiponfire

could someone please enlighten me. are polnyas taken into account for area and extent calculations? MASIE has the Bering sea 100,000 km^2 higher than a week ago and yet there is a huge area of open water on the Alaska coast in the Bremen picture today.

Philiponfire

http://www.accuweather.com/en/ru/ust-kara/291508/april-weather/291508

seems to suggest things are not going to be that warm in the Kara for the next 2 weeks.

Espen

Amazing stuff, take a look at these 2 links from Modis 2011 and 2012 April 21, have a look at the mouth of Nares Strait, you will see a profile of a mans head, and they looks more or less the same.
Open the links in 2 tabs, then it is easier to compare!


http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c02.2012111.aqua.250m

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c02.2012112.aqua.250m

Apocalypse4Real

Chris: "The GFS and Europe both go -NAO and warm the arctic up quite a bit in big early melt spots."

Neven: "I agree with Chris that things look poised for rapid and big drops in the coming week."

As I mentioned on April 20, I concur with more rapid declines. AO is expected to go negative for the next week.

However, the most recent NAO runs forsee a drop to neutral before returniing to positive:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

A Western Europe and Russian heatwave is built into the forecasts for this week. Moscow is supposed to reach the low 70's, Archangelsk is to reach the mid 50's at least on Thursday. Also, alot of rain is forecast.

Same impacts in southern Finland. Northern Finland and Norway are above freezing almost every day. The snowmelt anamoly will grow quickly.

The impact of sea ice decline may be a greater and earlier summer methane release from cracks in Arctic sea ice. See the NOAA release on the HIAPER flight data:

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth20120422.html

Tor Bejnar

Espen,
Woops: the two images linked are both 2012 - 4/20 and 4/21. Amazing how little changes in a day, sometimes. :)

Philiponfire

the Baffin bay ice looks greyer this year.

Apocalypse4Real

In regard to Russian snow melt and albedo reduction, and coming impacts on sea ice melt, see the following from UPI:

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2012/04/21/Floods-hit-central-Russia/UPI-18721335045538/?rel=46871335104568

They expect 4,700 towns and villages to be impacted by flooding in the next few weeks.

The Lena River is flooding already. It feeds into the East Siberian Sea.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2007/05/15/Huge-ice-jam-floods-Russian-villages/UPI-11801179239972/?rel=46871335104568

Kris

Apocalypse wrote:

The Lena River is flooding already. It feeds into the East Siberian Sea.

There must be a huge problem there, as temperatures in the Tiksi region and the Lena estuary still are between - 15 °C and - 20°C.
So, it looks like there is't much of space availble to drain the water off ...

Clare

In case you haven't seen about this new Imax movie & accompanying book
here is a chance to escape from 'the serious' thinking for a moment & explore this site:
http://welcometothearctic.org/
The extensive photo galleries are breath-takingly spectacular.
(& I may just need to go up to Auckland to see the movie when it is showing at NZ's Imax!)

And tonight on TV we have the last of David Attenborough's Nature's Great Events, the Arctic episode.
Clare

Neven

Very nice, Clare. I'll keep an eye on the IMax not too far from where I live.

Apocalypse4Real

A new article on planned drilling to determine methane release in the Canadian Arctic.

http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Scientists+eager+drill+Arctic+waters+answers+about+methane/6535248/story.html

Looks like major methane release has already been documented, but I have not seen or read the research.

Kris

Usually the NOAA pole cams get deployed in the second half of April, but there isn't any mentioning about this cams hitherto.

Would have been raised the same problem as in 2007?

Anyone?

Peter Ellis

Cameras are deployed, see here:
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/

The photos aren't updating yet, I think that's just the first two taken during deployment. Should start the main feed in a few days' time, I guess.

Kris

Peter Ellis wrote:

Cameras are deployed, see here

***
Actually, "it's on his way". But it's on his way for over a month now. And they can't afford to wait any longer as the ice floes are beginning to be unstable and inaccessable from May on.

Moreove, it's looks like the environment is already at that stage:

04/28/1455Z 85.408°N 143.563°W -8.4°C


-8,4 °C at lattitude 85.408°N on 28th of april? Looks pretty disconcerning to me. And whether or not you can put safely chopters and other heavy material in these conditions onto sea ice floes is very questianable.

Derek

Is that a century break then?


2012.3124 -0.0839445 12.8770418 12.9609861
2012.3151 -0.0471004 12.8662653 12.9133654
2012.3177 -0.0862665 12.7772894 12.8635559
2012.3206 -0.1727877 12.6508217 12.8236094

Neven

A century break indeed, Derek. I think we'll see two or thee more in the coming days.

Peter Ellis

Kris: No, it's not "on his way", the two pictures at the top are from this year's cameras, and appear to be updating periodically (latest are from April 27/28).

The archives are here:
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2012/webcam1.html
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2012/webcam2.html

Click through for the full set of photos:
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2012/WEBCAM1/ARCHIVE/
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2012/WEBCAM2/ARCHIVE/

You can see they were deployed a few days ago and are regularly sending new pictures. That link just hasn't yet propagated to the main NOAA north pole webcam site.

Kris

Peter Ellis wrote:

Kris: No, it's not "on his way"

Yes, you have it right. Behind the 2 "pictures" there is nothing but a void though, hence my mistake.

Thank you.

Neven

This popped up in my Google Reader:

A recent bifurcation in Arctic sea-ice cover

Valerie N. Livina, Timothy M. Lenton
(Submitted on 24 Apr 2012)

There is ongoing debate over whether Arctic sea-ice has already passed a 'tipping point', or whether it will do so in future, with several recent studies arguing that the loss of summer sea ice does not involve a bifurcation because it is highly reversible in models. Recently developed methods can detect and sometimes forewarn of bifurcations in time-series data, hence we applied them to satellite data for Arctic sea-ice cover. Here we show that a new low ice cover state has appeared from 2007 onwards, which is distinct from the normal state of seasonal sea ice variation, suggesting a bifurcation has occurred from one attractor to two. There was no robust early warning signal of critical slowing down prior to this bifurcation, consistent with it representing the appearance of a new ice cover state rather than the loss of stability of the existing state. The new low ice cover state has been sampled predominantly in summer-autumn and seasonal forcing combined with internal climate variability are likely responsible for triggering recent transitions between the two ice cover states. However, all early warning indicators show destabilization of the summer-autumn sea-ice since 2007. This suggests the new low ice cover state may be a transient feature and further abrupt changes in summer-autumn Arctic sea-ice cover could lie ahead; either reversion to the normal state or a yet larger ice loss.

Arxiv

Kevin McKinney

"However, all early warning indicators show destabilization of the summer-autumn sea-ice since 2007. This suggests the new low ice cover state may be a transient feature and further abrupt changes in summer-autumn Arctic sea-ice cover could lie ahead; either reversion to the normal state or a yet larger ice loss."

Gee, I wonder which of those two is more probable?

Thanks, though... I think.

Neven

Sorry/My pleasure, Kevin!

Something else: the plug in Kane Basin (Nares) looks a lot smaller this year than it did last year.

Neven

Nick Barnes wrote:

OT, really, but on the subject of ice movement, I see from recent MODIS that the ice is moving away from the NW archipelago coast in a really striking way.

Indeed, Nick. That's been going on since the beginning of April, when a high pressure system formed over the Beaufort Sea/Central Arctic. Flicking through my DMI SLP maps I see that the intensity lessened after initial very high pressure in the region, but things intensified again a couple of days ago. The isobars have staid put all that time in the direction of the ice movement. Flicking through the MODIS images makes for a nice private animation.

Kris

Me thinks it's about time to start the May open thread ...

Neven

Kris, the ASI updates take over the function of the open threads. I'll be writing Update 2 this weekend.

BTW, is CAPTCHA still bothering you a lot, or has it improved?

Kris

Neven asked:

is CAPTCHA still bothering you a lot, or has it improved?

It's improved considerably, I've only been slammed once in over 3 weeks.

Thank you.

BTW: I'll wait with the aggiorned 1 May parade till the second ASI then. The slideshow is already on a different location, so you can't reach it for now.

Rob Dekker

Kris To repeat myself again, as Hudson Bay remains for 2 more months open sea it stores 2 more months of heat.

How do you figure that ?
How can open sea store 2 more months of heat ?

Daniel Bailey

"BTW, is CAPTCHA still bothering you a lot, or has it improved?"

As long as I don't try to link something or to post a graphic, I'm fine (apparently).

Does cramp my ideom.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Your Information

(Name is required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)