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Chris Biscan

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2012099.aqua.4km


The Dipole Anomaly is crushing the Ice. Look at the shores of the Russian Sea's. Ouch, that is bad news bears..that new ice is super thin and is replacing the MYI ice being slammed out the Fram.

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c05.2012099.aqua

The Kara ice is being pulled out and will be for more days to come, on top of that, the open water can no longer sustain ice growth on a wide scale. It may freeze up again, but it won't be very thick.

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c03.2012099.aqua


The ice above Greenland looks like bleep. in the past decades ago that was wide scale 4-6 meter ice to the pole.

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c03.2012099.aqua

Look at the beaufort, take a close look at the huge cracks.

Chris Biscan

http://i174.photobucket.com/albums/w109/frivolousz21/meanT_2012-2.png?t=1333949147

Chris Biscan

http://i174.photobucket.com/albums/w109/frivolousz21/laptevseaApril1-8th.gif

I meant to post that, not the other one, but thats cool, that is the last 9 days over the Laptev, incredible ice movement.

Kris

For those looking for some webcam at Wales, Bering Street, the java system based Looking into tomorrow cam has been shifted to that new address. Apparently the software has been altered too, but it looks to me like the "administrator" can't handle it sufficiently. Nevertheless it's better than nothing.

Mind, at present it's night there, thus you can't see anything now.

Still no trace of what has happened with the seaice.alaska.edu cam.

Neven

I meant to post that, not the other one, but thats cool, that is the last 9 days over the Laptev, incredible ice movement.

Wow...

Rob Dekker

Wow indeed.
Great composition of what offshore winds can do.
Thanks Chris.

Neven

CT SIA has been updated. An uptick of 68K, but then subsequent drops of 87K and 143K. 2012 has cut the lead the other years had by a significant amount. Only 2007 is still 660K in front.

Hudson Bay has started to open up on the UB SIC map.

It has started for real now.

Rob Dekker

What an amazing situation we have waiting for us during the melting season.

A brutal Alaskan winter promises much thicker ice than usual waiting in the Beaufort and the Chucki seas, while the East side is fragile and open waters sustained up to 82.5 deg North of Svalbard through the winter, due to unusually warm Northern Atlantic.

So we have a situation where the West Arctic is "restored" to pre-2000 conditions and the East Arctic is very much on the "death spiral" path.

If, for a moment, we assume that there is not much "heat communication" between the West and the East over one season, then the local changes over melting season are going to be extremely interesting.

If 'local' feedback mechanisms (such as 'albedo' feedback) are dominant, then the Bering sea (and the Chucki and the Beaufort) should show pre-2000 ice reduction behavior, and thus should not melt out as they did in the past 5 years.

However, if more global effects are at play (such as heat input from lower latitudes, and land albedo chances due to faster snow melt, and my favorite : under-ice ocean heat flux) then the western part of the Arctic should melt out more rapidly.

And the effects on the East are equally interesting. Will the heat influx from the North Atlantic, combined with albedo feedbacks turn the North Pole into open ocean this year ? Or will wind-induced ice movement re-arrange the pack ?

I'm betting (literally actually) on positive feedbacks being quite strong, and since albedo feedbacks are most pronounced if the West has open water, that also means that less open water in the West (due to thicker ice and reduced melt) means also that this year we may not see a record minimum, and depending on the winds, maybe a pretty decent recovery.

Neven, are you going to do a "September minimum" poll this year ?

Neven

Neven, are you going to do a "September minimum" poll this year ?

Yes, but in sync with the SEARCH monthly forecasts. I believe the first one will come out in June, so the first poll should show up somewhere in May.

michael sweet

Rob,
Have you looked at the NOAA 90 day anomaly graph recently? The cold over Alaska was limited in extent and primarily over land and the Bearing sea. Over the Beaufort and the Chucki seas it is recorded as average near land and hot further north. The entire remainder of the Arctic was a hot house. Current MODIS images show lots of Chucki ice flowing out the Bearing Strait. Where do you see greater than normal thickness? I see no evidence of a "brutal Alaskan winter", only a little colder than normal over a limited area.

Diablobanquisa.wordpress.com

In the extended winter (Dec-Mar) the temperatures in Beaufort and Chukchi seas have been below the 1981-2010 mean, so maybe we could expect thicker ice than in previous years:

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/62/compday.85.87.236.179.99.4.59.17_rtb2.gif

idunno

Hi all,

After some wild oscillations, the latest CT area figure seems to be a century break - very early?

Neven

Kris (and others), here's what I've written to TypePad support:

Hi,

One of the commenters on my blog complains about having to enter the new and hard to read reCAPTCHA verification code, despite having signed in through TypePad beforehand.

In my comment settings I always had the option 'Yes — require all commenters to sign in'. I then changed this to 'Optional — allow commenters to sign in if they choose' and under 'Unauthenticated Commenters' only went for the option 'Require an email address', but my commenter still complains of having to go through the word verif.

Is there any way I can shut this off for him and eventual others (I don't have much spam)?

Thanks in advance,

Neven

Neven

After some wild oscillations, the latest CT area figure seems to be a century break - very early?

Nah, practically all years since 2005 had century breaks in the first 10 days of April, in March even.

2012 CT SIA century breaks so far:

2005 2
2006 3
2007 5
2008 1
2009 3
2010 2
2011 2
2012 4

Wade

I don't know if you guys know about this yet, but here's a link to physorg about the record breaking hot 12 month period in the U.S., and the record breaking March in the U.S.

http://phys.org/news/2012-04-record-breaking-hot-year.html

As usual, somebody still finds an excuse to deny this.

I used to be a skeptic, this has gotten out of hand, especially after the past 3 years.

Neven

Thanks, Wade. It looks like skeptics in a few years from now will say: there hasn't been any warming in the US since 2012. ;-)

Kris and others, I've received an answer from TypePad support:

Hi Neven,

Thanks for the note.

While you can select the option not to require a CAPTCHA on each comment, there isn't a way to disable this completely since some comments (ones with lots of links, for instance) can trigger the system
as possible spam. This is to protect your blog from spam.

Since the system is designed to attempt to block spam, there isn't a way to turn this off completely for your blog.

Is he leaving lots of links in comments, posting comments rapidly in a row, or anything else of this nature that may be causing the system to thing he might be a spammer?

I don't think Kris was hyperactive in either commenting or leaving links, but I'm going to ask if he will get bothered less by reCAPTCHA if he 'takes it slow', or is he marked forever by the curse?.

There was one thing I wondered about though, Kris. In your profile there's a link to a website that doesn't exist. Maybe it makes TypePad think you're a spammer? Hold on, I see the website works now (it didn't earlier todayor yesterday, can't remember when), so that's not it either. Hmmmm...

I'm going to ask TypePad support about the 'taking it slow' and report back.

Other commenters: do you have to go through reCAPTCHA word verif often when you comment?

Werther

Neven,
I've did my best to get through recaptcha twice last days and got by.... just follow the signs as they appear at first sight and don't worry, mate..

Kevin McKinney

FWIW, I seem to get a Captcha more-or-less randomly--maybe 10-20% of the time? And I think an encounter with Captcha is more likely if the comment contains a link than if not.

Neven

Thanks, Kevin, that's useful for me. As blog owner I of course never have to deal with word verif.

Werther

MODIS looks erroneously different day 100 than last year…
I wouldn’t be so sure to expect compensation on the Beaufort-Chukchi side. The Gulf of Boothia is showing early signs of break-up, as do Hudson Bay/Hudson Strait. Baffin Bay doesn’t look like it’s been covered with real thick FYI during it’s cold spell, too. Ochotsk is showing serious compaction. There were a lot of continuous leads this period 2011 too, but they look quite as profound today. That lines up pretty well with high plus 80 degrees temps during winter.
It’s not really taking away any worries about warmer Atlantic waters churning up from below.
A pretty illustration shows up on the Atlantic side day 100. Three churning lows, east of Novaya Zemlya, northeast of Cape Flissingskyi and right in the Barentsz Sea.

Kris

Neven wrote:

, Kris. In your profile there's a link to a website that doesn't exist.

UGH!?

My website exist very well and even better, it's not even guasted by Flash and uncomfortable dirty things like that.

http://www.kolibrieweg.eu

If you can't reach it it's likely due to a problem at your side.

Incidentally, doesn't Typepad have an option to keep individually newbies moderated for a while? A treshold that can be lifted when the person seems affidable enough, and eventually could be reset when the person isn't affidable anymore?
There should be something like that.

Bfraser

I always log in via Facebook and haven't had to face a captcha for a long time (at least 6 months).

Neven

My website exist very well and even better, it's not even guasted by Flash and uncomfortable dirty things like that.

Which is why I wrote: "Hold on, I see the website works now (it didn't earlier todayor yesterday, can't remember when), so that's not it either."

Incidentally, doesn't Typepad have an option to keep individually newbies moderated for a while? A treshold that can be lifted when the person seems affidable enough, and eventually could be reset when the person isn't affidable anymore?
There should be something like that.

I don't know exactly how the TypePad system works, but I've more or less asked this question yesterday (can someone who gets a lot of word verifs get less after a while again) and now await the answer.

Mike Constable

Thick ice will be slow to get thicker even with unusually low temps (Alaskan side of Arctic), but thin ice areas (Atlantic side) will have low albedo as soon as it melts - I don't think it will be a good year for ice!
There was a bit of the Ayles ice shelf to the west of the Canadian islands with a transponder on it (I left a link at the bottom of the NW Passage animation last year) - it has recently been stationary, if it moves we will know how fast the gyre is going.
I will see if Captcha strikes soon!

Mike Constable

No Captcha at all!

Kevin McKinney

"...thin ice areas (Atlantic side) will have low albedo as soon as it melts.."

Actually, if memory serves, before it melts--I no longer recall in which paper I read this, but there's significant light penetration of sea ice under under the thickness of maybe a meter and a half or so. (As an instance, in many underwater photos taken looking up through such ice it's quite noticeable that trans-ice sunlight is providing all the light for the scene.)

Wade

Incredible.

I've never seen satellite pictures of this quality.

I was not aware the satellites had that good of resolution.

This is amazing.

You can even see dune-like structures on top of the larger ice sheets.

Chris Biscan

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c03.2012101.aqua.1km

I must also question the idea that the Beaufort side gained an abnormal amount of thickness.


Those are huge cracks. That would require major ridging to be so large so rapidly inside the basin.


I realize many have Nilas in between them. But those are very thin, you can see newer smaller cracks thru the Nilas.

Chris Biscan

The super late Hudson Freeze was because of a super low -NAO for most of that period with huge height anonomalies throwing warm air back into the region from the Atlantic, while cold air flows from Central Canada into the United States.

Chris Biscan

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=75657


The River of heat in the Beaufort region has continued to grow since the early to mid 2000s. This will be mostly abated until later in the season when the Surface really get's melted and there is open water around taking in tons of energy. Then mixing will help the ice just get smoked from beneath.


Kris

Chris Biscan wrote:

The super late Hudson Freeze was because of a super low -NAO for most of that period with huge height anonomalies throwing warm air back into the region from the Atlantic, while cold air flows from Central Canada into the United States.

Would it have been the 1st time in mankind this phenomenum has happened?

I sincerely doubt it. IMHO it's not THE reason but just a part of a complexity of reasons.

Rob Dekker

Chris Biscan I must also question the idea that the Beaufort side gained an abnormal amount of thickness. Those are huge cracks..

Cracks form when ice moves, and polynias are created, no matter the thickness of the ice.
The Beaufort (as well as the Chukchi and the Bering) have experienced some 4 K below (1981-2010) average temperatures through the winter.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.pl?var=Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&mon1=11&mon2=2&iy=2012&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&ipos%5B1%5D=&ipos%5B2%5D=&ineg%5B1%5D=&ineg%5B2%5D=&timefile0=&tstype=0&timefile1=&value=&typeval=1&compval=1&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=200&labelcon=1&switch=0&cint=&lowr=&highr=&proj=Custom&xlat1=45&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&custproj=Northern+Hemisphere+Polar+Stereographic&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot

If you compare that to last year's plot, this winter in the West of the Arctic was some 10 C below last year's. And that is the average.

That suggests that there must be some 20 to 30 % thicker ice in the Beaufort and Chukchi than last year. On top of that, the Bering has the highest extent in (satellite) recorded history and my initial estimate is that represents some 350 Gton more ice before we even get into the Chukchi/Beaufort.

All that extra ice should slow down the melting rate in the West, don't you think ?
If it does not, then we would have to re-think how ice "memory" (of prior years) operates in the Arctic.

The East on the other hand is completely different.
Persistent high over Siberia and Northern Europe combined by persistent low over the pole, caused warm Atlantic waters to flush deep into the Arctic, creating the lowest ice extent in recorded history in the Barents and Kara seas through winter.
If even a minute amount of all that heat made it under the East Arctic ice pack, then the ice in the East is very fragile, and may (depending on the direction of winds over spring/summer) simply "melt away" in the brutal Arctic summer sun.

I would not even be surprised if we get an ice free North Pole this year, but no record minimum in September...

The differences between the West and the East Arctic are larger than ever recorded before, so it's going to be a very, very interesting melting season, that will provide a lot of information on how "local" the Arctic melting season is...

Chris Biscan

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/nao.data

it was the strongest most negative one since at least 1950 for November-January.

Of course AGW plays a role, but the pattern is significant for something like Hudson Bay Ice. This season had the warmest SSTs on record up there in multiple places during the summer, especially the southern bay that reached almost 60F in spots. That is 8-10C above normal, it still froze over in December with a positive NAO and cold there.


There was also a super negative AO.

I would bet we won't see another freeze up that late for quite sometime.


Rob Dekker

Here is the Dec-March DIFFERENCE in temperature anomaly between 2012 and 2011, which shows just how much colder the West and how much warmer the East is now, compared to last year :

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.pl?var=Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&mon1=11&mon2=0&iy=2012&iy=-2011&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&ipos%5B1%5D=&ipos%5B2%5D=&ineg%5B1%5D=&ineg%5B2%5D=&timefile0=&tstype=0&timefile1=&value=&typeval=1&compval=1&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=200&labelcon=1&switch=0&cint=&lowr=&highr=&proj=Custom&xlat1=45&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&custproj=Northern+Hemisphere+Polar+Stereographic&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot

Neven

I'm a bit afraid to go out on a limb again, but those patches south of Novaya Zemlya won't be freezing over again, will they?

Philiponfire

I would not bet on that Neven. Still mighty cold on the south Kara sea coast.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/ru/ust-kara/291508/april-weather/291508

Rob Dekker

Neven,

On your "webcams" page, you still have Obuoy5 presented. However, Obuoy5 died somewhere in Januari.

On the bright side, Obuoy6 is alive (activated yesterday!) and conveniently reporting from 89.5 North (virtually the NP) :

http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy6/webcam

With Obuoy4 still reporting (from just North of Greenland), there are now two Obuoys ready for the melting season.

Werther

Neven, Philiponfire
After your posts I had a look at those wind-blown polynia’s right north of the fast ice on the Taymir coast of the Kara Sea. Clearly they’re constantly refreezing. Temps have made it to normal, finally, after mid march. Vize, Dikson, Frantsa Yosefa, all stations now report minus 15-20 dC, not strange as winds are straight east. That wind is, like Kris or Chris Reynolds has indicated, part of a lower tropospheric flow stretching from east Siberia right into northern Europe. Part of a Dipole in formation.
At the same time, Amderma and Malye Karmakuly report minus 2 dC. Clearly, these stations get their winds from a more southern component, preluding spring. Nothing really weird for the season, but it can hardly ‘repair’ the built-up energy surplus in the Kara Sea.
What is striking, is this dipole, churning almost the complete Basin pack, from the Beaufort up to the Atlantic sector. And next week another of these Rossby-wave stuck-on ridges is forming over the Ural/Ob Basin in Russia. It will bring spring right over the Kara Sea. Another one is establishing over the Kolyma region. That one will spread spring over the Chukchi Sea, in close harmony with a completary ridge over Alaska.
Now that I’m more aware how the northern troposphere is structured in 3D, it isn’t hard to see the patterns described by climatologist Francis. On top of this, 500mB anomaly shows a strong positive bulge over the Canadian Archipelago and adjacent Basin. It’s negative counterpart is spread over all of Eurasia’s Arctic north.

What can be destilled out of this weather mess? One: troposphere is not ocean. Melt-driving change is constantly pushed through the seas. That’ll go on. Two: anomalous tropospheric weather is creating impressive regional shows that encompass several weeks/months. Just when one would guess it’s strengthening/weakening the sea ice, their effects are tossed by the contrary extreme. Three: any really long-lasting extremity will be capable of a new historical melt anomaly. And the possibility of it rising at the right time/place is rapidly increasing. Four: even without such an extremity, it is unlikely a regional/temporal cold anomaly is going to facilitate a ‘recovery’ of the sea ice. On the contrary, they are phases in increased environmental dynamics. In that sense, the constant mechanical weathering of the pack is one other component in it’s demise.

Kris

People,

As things are starting to be serious we might as well have some oversight.

To begin with, a slide taken from the Bremen maps of the entire Arctic each year on the first of May from 2003 till 2011 (do click here).

Don't worry, no devastating Flash but just an easy and smooth Jalbum based slide with not the slightest load onto your systems.

By the way, Vorige = Previous, Volgende = Next and sluiten = Close.

Neven

Thanks, Kris. Very nice.

Neven
On your "webcams" page, you still have Obuoy5 presented. However, Obuoy5 died somewhere in Januari.

On the bright side, Obuoy6 is alive (activated yesterday!) and conveniently reporting from 89.5 North (virtually the NP) :

And thanks to you too, Rob. I have replaced #5 by #6 on the webcams page.

Philiponfire

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c02.2012103.terra.250m

something interesting going on in the Canadian archipelago. top centre of the subset. ice breakup in the middle of the fixed ice.

Twemoran

Philip

I'd noticed that area and found it to be a regular feature that reoccurs each year. Some strange polynya no doubt

Terry

Chris Biscan

the DPA is going to hold extent up a bit, but torch the western arctic hardcore downsloping winds and wide spread warm anomalies. This will ramp up melting of snow and ice, but also continue the river of MYI speeding bullets out of the Fram, but also a ton of sun.


http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2012103.terra.4km

The ice is already looking like bleep, but it's easy to see with so much sun up there.

Philiponfire

this is my first time looking at the ice closely through the winter so thanks for the information Terry . here it is, exact same place same time last year. a hole in the perfect un-cracked ice.

Sure is going to be toasty in Okhotsk for the next 2 weeks.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/ru/okhotsk/288431/april-weather/288431


looks to me like that is where we will see the biggest losses for the whole Arctic during that time period. Baltic will melt too!

Philiponfire

another eye in the sky goes silent.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2128895/Worlds-biggest-civilian-earth-observing-satellite-falls-silent--engineers-scramble-regain-contact-tonne-orbiter.html

Philiponfire

I know it is not the Arctic but a piece of real crazy weather from Texas.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2128989/Hail-No-Raging-April-storm-leaves-feet-ICE-unbelievable-photos.html

Michael Fliss

Philiponfire,

I believe that is the Hell Gate Polynya between Ellesmere Island and Devon Island at the Norwegian Bay end of Jones Sound.

http://www.canoekayak.com/files/2011/03/ellesmere-island-map-lg.jpg

Rob Dekker

Philiponfire,
Thanks for the weather reports, and Okhotsk is indeed going to be a bit warmer (less cold) than usual, but I would not designate the forecast of barely-above-freezing as "toasty"... Although they sure could use some warmth there after their winter.

Philiponfire

thank you Michael now it makes sense.

Rob I try to keep my tongue firmly in cheek at all times.

Rob Dekker

No pun intended Philiponfire.
Just staying realistic.

Neven

another eye in the sky goes silent.

I hope they get it to work...

Philiponfire

Neven said,

I'm a bit afraid to go out on a limb again, but those patches south of Novaya Zemlya won't be freezing over again, will they?

MASIE reports a 20,000 increase in ice in the Kara on day 103 which goes well with what you can see on Modis.

with the current forcast I see the whole Kara getting a thin film of ice again before the final thaw.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/ru/ust-kara/291508/april-weather/291508

Espen

IMHO I think the SSMIS data is underestimating the ice volume / strength especially of the the coast of North East Greenland (my special interest area), it looks very vulnerable at this point this early in the season.

Werther

Hi Espen,
You probably mean overestimating? UniBremen does that sector in deep red, while you just have to look at MODIS to see an immense cracking zone, even worse than same time 2011.

Neven

That big high pressure system is having quite a marked effect around the Arctic. If things wouldn't freeze over due to low temps, there'd be a lot of open water in the Laptev Sea, to name one.

Nightvid Cole

Any ice formed in the Laptev sea now almost certainly will not survive the month of June...

Nightvid Cole

The NE passage / Northern Sea Route will open (choose one):

a) Before 7/10
b) 7/10-7/19
c) 7/20-7/29
d) 7/30-8/5
e) 8/6-8/15
f) 8/16-8/25
g) After 8/25
h) Not at all in 2012

Espen


Hi Espen,
You probably mean overestimating? UniBremen does that sector in deep red, while you just have to look at MODIS to see an immense cracking zone, even worse than same time 2011.

Hi Werther,
Yes you are right, it looks more cracked up everywhere just compared to last season

fredt34

The Legend Borge Ousland and his girlfriend were the first people to get married on the North Pole, on april 12, through Barneo ice station - see http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?hl=ru&rurl=translate.google.ru&sl=ru&tl=en&u=http://barneo-polus.livejournal.com/20463.html&usg=ALkJrhjKDKOucXxKj-yh_5bjL2nVqGDzDg">http://barneo-polus.livejournal.com/20463.html&usg=ALkJrhjKDKOucXxKj-yh_5bjL2nVqGDzDg">http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?hl=ru&rurl=translate.google.ru&sl=ru&tl=en&u=http://barneo-polus.livejournal.com/20463.html&usg=ALkJrhjKDKOucXxKj-yh_5bjL2nVqGDzDg

Amazing once again! Congratulations to Borge - and Norwegian readers!

fredt34

(sorry for messing the cut&paste)

Kris

Albeit not enterely official, still a record day yesterday at Disko Bay - Illulisat (Jacobshavn) "

crandles

Average -2C Record -1C seems remarkably little variation to me. If correct, then +6 is a huge variation. Something seems wrong to me.

Meanwhile
2012.2849 -0.2152145 13.1154699
2011.2849 -0.6540573 12.6766272
2010.2849 -0.4128511 12.9178333

so now 439k above 2011 and 198k above 2010.

John Christensen

Yes, with 13.115469 on day 104, today has beaten 2003 by 90kkm2, making this day the best in a decade, due to decent recovery across from Hudston Bay across to the Kara Sea that appears to be holding out well considering the late freeze over..

John Christensen

Still betting that the anomaly in Jan/Feb pushing the ice towards the NA continent was a very positive event, reducing/eleminating ice export via the Fram Strait for a period and enabling a considerable volume of new ice to develop in the Kara Sea that enjoys a comparatively high latitude compared to Chuckchi, Hudson, Bering, and Okhotsk, with strong melt out as late as June or July - if the thin ice indeed can hold that long..

fredt34

RealClimate has a nice blog entry http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/04/arctic-sea-ice-volume-piomas-prediction-and-the-perils-of-extrapolation/ about guestimating & extrapolating Arctic Ice volume from PIOMAS figures - and Neven, your blog gets link #1 !

fredt34

(well, I've just found Neven's comment under the post, so he already knows about this - but nevertheless it might be useful for other readers)

Chris Biscan

Hearts will be breaking betting on the mirage of Sea Ice Extent.

Snow cover anomalies are picking up, the models show Eurasia's snow cover to keep getting hit hard by warm air invasions.


Kris

John Christensen wrote:

due to decent recovery across from Hudston Bay across to the Kara

Agreed for Barents- and Kara Seas, but not for the Hudson reagion.
The polynia in SaintJames Bay every day grows bigger, as well as the polynia around Sanikiluaq island. As the 16th of April Bremen map shows.

And given the "low" lattitude of St James Bay we can expect these polynia won't freeze solid anymore.

Incidentally, a mass of polynia have een formed along the Alaskian and Canadian coasts from point Barrow to Barter Island (where the Amundson route ends - or begins.
As a result of unduly high temperatures in that region since a week already.

Kevin McKinney

Kris, I'm thinking you mean "James Bay"--it was named not for a saint, but for an English sea-captain, Thomas James:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Bay

(I'm thinking that among the annals of sea-captains, there's not a single one listed as a saint! Though I hasten to add that some captains were reputed to be quite pious--mustn't slander a whole profession, after all.)

Kris

Kevin wrote:

Kris, I'm thinking you mean "James Bay"

You have it absolutely right, my mistake.

And I have to admit, due to years of brainwashing in a Catholic school sometimes I do see "Saints" everywhere. :-)

John Christensen

From Wunderground (maybe not a good source?) today's temperatures along the northern coast of Alaska range from -20 to -7,5C, and in the Canadian Archipelago you have a high pressure with -30C at the center pushing cold wind down into the Hudson Bay with -7,5 at James Bay in the south.

Maybe not cold in all places, but nothing that would melt the ice..(?)

John Christensen

And a quick thought on late season freeze in recent years:

- With more and warmer Atlantic water entering the Arctic Basin either in sporadic events or more continuously, and a warming globe, it would take longer for both the Arctic air and surface water to cool enough to freeze, explaining a delayed freeze.

- However, what is melting the ice in spring is radiation as the sun is rising, and with a lower overall SIE we have less ice in lower latitude areas (St. Lawrence as example that today has no ice of significance) that would be subject to stronger radiation from early/mid-March. Therefore, ice can continue to grow as the growth is talking place even at higher latitudes that would 'normally' be completely frozen over at this time.

Mudandwater Mb

Speaking of changing sea ice patterns on Hudson Bay and James Bay, some of you may be interested in the this film that explores how sea ice changes, related to hydro electric development in Northern Quebec and Manitoba are driving changes in currents and salinity levels. This is having an adverse affect on Polynya formation, and therefore the duck populations and the Inuit communities that rely on them. It is amazing how everything in the arctic is interconnected. The film is called People of a Feather: http://www.peopleofafeather.com/trailer/

Kris

John Cristensen wrote:

Maybe not cold in all places, but nothing that would melt the ice..

At James Bay and a part of the Southern Hudson Bay since about two weeks temperatures at daylight are rising to 6 à 10 °C, and at night are going down to -6 à -10 °C. Quite a loop each day.

That's why the polynia are expanding now there.

John Christensen

@Mudandwater;

Interesting that you brought this up.
I was studying economics in Montreal in '96 and wrote a paper on the James Bay Project:
My arguments back then (have not changed much) was that the benefits (producing clean energy, potentially reducing fossil fuel consumption and getting cheap energy) did not outweigh the cost (altering the flows of main rivers covering an area of France with significant detrimental local environmental impact) - especially since they did not create any hard objectives of actually replacing any current fossil fuel energy plants with this hydroelectric facility. It was just added on top of their existing energy network.

Again; it is very important to truly understand how we are impacting the environment, so that policy decisions are improved, and not everything that is 'green' or 'reducing fossil fuel dependency' is necessarily good.. How can they ever restore that vast area and who would pay for that?

John Christensen

Sorry, about half the size of France is the area impacted by the James Bay Project..

fredt34

> Half the size of France

... not my half, I hope!

Shortfatape

Has anyone seen anything about the North Pole web cams for this year? They went up about this time last year; haven't seen any news about them, and there's nothing on their site.

Twemoran

Take a quick peek at the O-Buoy 4 Webcam.

Terry

Twemoran

My bad - it was the Ilulissat photo I thought was so stunning.

Terry

Diablobanquisa.wordpress.com

Shortfatape: Deployment of the 2012 North Pole Webcams and Enviromental Observatory: http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/npeo-2012-field-reports/

The webcam of the O-Buoy 6 is working, at the North Pole: http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy6/webcam

Shortfatape

Very cool - thanks for the links. I'd only been looking at the NOAA pages:

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/gallery_np.html

Nothing there so far.

Phil263

SIA (CT) and SIE ( masie) still going up on Day 107. It seems that Winter is lingering on in the Arctic....

Any change of weather in the next few days?

John Christensen

Central Greenland is mild (around 0C) and the warmth is not far off the northern coast in Alaska, but winds are circumpolar or slightly southernly in most areas shielding the ice. Okhotsk temps are around 0C for the area, so could easily see some melting coming up.

Where do you find CT SIA data for day 107?

Phil263

John
Thanks for the update.
Day 107 is actually the last entry for Masie. CT is up to .2877 which would be Day 105.( based on 366 days)

John Christensen

Thanks, was wondering how you found two more days on CT.. ;-)

Okhotsk is melting nicely BTW, but more or less according to normal level. Gain is taking place at higher latitude regions as you would expect, except for the Barents Sea which is not likely to recover at all this season with SIA cut to about half of normal (The Barents anomaly is higher than the total NH SIA anomaly..)

Philiponfire

The gains are almost all old ice moving south into warmer waters. not something to cheer about is it? one of those situations when extent is not a helpful measure of ice in my opinion. the illusion of growth, something to make the deniers happy in the short term.

Michael Fliss

Phil 263

On the CT calendar, isn't the first day every year designated .0000? Then, .0027 (1/365) is day 2. That is, .0027 X 365 = 1 +1 = day 2. So, .2877 x 365 = 105 + 1 = day 106! Leap year 2004 had two .1644 dates and leap year 2008 had two .4438 dates. Any bets when leap year 2012 will duplicate dates?

fredt34

At last, news from Cryosat !

http://www.esa.int/esaLP/SEM768KWZ0H_LPcryosat_0.html

Call for Media: CryoSat’s first map of changes in sea-ice thickness

Media representatives are invited to attend the unveiling of the first map of the winter 2010–11 changes in Arctic sea-ice thickness measured by ESA’s ice mission. The event will take place on 24 April at the Royal Society in London.

A live web stream of the event will be accessible through ESA’s Earth observation page at http://www.esa.int/esaEO/index.html.

John Christensen

Philiponfire:

"The gains are almost all old ice moving south into warmer waters."

In the past week, we have seen gains in Hudson, Greenland Sea, Kara, and the Arctic Basin, with the largest gains in Kara and Arctic, so please explain your point.

Neven

Thanks a lot for the info, Fred! Maybe I'll do a live blog of the event.

Account Deleted

http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/fileadmin/images/news/indic/msl/MSL_Serie_MERGED_Global_IB_RWT_GIA_Adjust.png

A very rapid increase in sea level. This is a result of melting polar ice caps?

Neven

Arcticicelost80, I think it's a result of the end of La Niña. All of the water that was dumped on land masses is slowly finding it's way back to the sea. Of course, melting ice caps also play a role. But this is mostly the signal asserting itself again after a rather hefty fluctuation (assuming the data is correct, of course).

Account Deleted

"assuming the data is correct, of course"

Neven, all three satellites show rapid growth.
http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/fileadmin/images/news/indic/msl/MSL_Serie_ALL_Global_IB_RWT_GIA_Adjust.png

The line became significantly higher than the trend. The coming months will be interesting growth stopped or not.

Neven

The coming months will be interesting growth stopped or not.

Definitely!

Heraclitus

I've not being paying much attention recently but as the melt season gets underway in earnest can I just ask which data set, in the lamented abscence of IJIS, we should be referring to and where a quick link to it is?

Thanks.

Account Deleted

Heraclitu, a microwave antenna on the old satellite jammed.

Now, new data only if it is successfully launched on May 17.

http://www.jaxa.jp/projects/sat/gcom_w/index_e.html
"World's Largest Revolving Space Antenna AMSR2
The Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2,) which will be loaded onto the GCOM-W1, is a sensor to observe radiometers, or microwaves emitted naturally from the ground, sea surface and atmosphere, using six different frequency bands ranging from 7 GHz to 89 GHz. The strength of a natural microwave is determined by its characteristics and moisture, including the surface condition and temperature of the material. Although it depends on the frequency, the microwave is very weak. AMSR2 will detect such weak microwaves at an altitude of 700 kilometers and measure the strength of them with a very high accuracy. For example, by measuring the strength of a microwave emitted from the sea surface with the AMSR2, we can understand the water temperature of the sea surface to an accuracy of 0.5 degrees Celsius.
The antenna of the AMSR2, which receives microwaves from the ground, arc scans the ground surface at a ratio of one turn every 1.5 seconds and observes an area approximately 1,450 kilometers wide in one scan. Using this scanning method, the AMSR2 can observe over 99 percent of the Earth's area in just 2 days. The diameter of the antenna is about 2 meters, making it the world's largest observation sensor aboard a satellite. The height of the rotating part is about 2.7 meters and the weight is about 250 kilograms. The AMSR2 can keep rotating such a large and heavy antenna at a speed of one turn per 1.5 seconds for 24 hours a day and more than five years without a minute of rest."

crandles

I don't know how long deployment, testing and calibration will take but I am guessing not quick. In the mean time, my preference if forced to a single source is for:

Graph http://gfspl.rootnode.net/klimat/arcticice.png
(4th row, middle column on daily graphs page. Link at top of this page.)

Data is area from Cryosphere today
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008

Multiple sources may be better than one so maybe whole of that daily graphs page ;-)

Account Deleted

So how fast this year decided to publish data for CryoSat-2 (in the last year in June) suggests that this winter the ice is much less than last year.

These thoughts also leads me to a comparison of three images for the last three years.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/msfa-NHe-a-2010107.sir.gif
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/msfa-NHe-a-2011106.sir.gif
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/msfa-NHe-a-2012107.sir.gif

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