Hot spring

Yes, I know it isn't really hot where the red is. It's just anomalously not cold in much of the Arctic, according to the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division:
Though it isn't the first time, it looks pretty spectacular. On the DMI temperature map we see how atmospheric patterns pull in warmer air from the Atlantic all the way to Alaska:

Of course, on DMI's map for daily mean temperatures north of 80 degrees (based on the ERA40 reanalysis data set from ECMWF) it's clear that temps have been above average since the start of the year:

That's slightly unusual, even if there have been many wild swings on that graph in recent years.

Individual weather stations in the region have been showing the same thing:

Longyearbyen, Svalbard:

Currently 17.7° C above normal (as much as 20.5° C last week).

Barentsburg, Svalbard:

Currently 10.8° C above normal (as much as 14.9° C a couple of days ago).

Vize Island:

Currently 14.7° C above normal (as much as 22.8° C a couple of days ago).

Novaya Zemlya:

Currently 8.6° C above normal (highest so far this month).

Franz Josef Land:

Currently 14.8° C above normal (as much as 20.6° C last week).

It's not as cold as it should be over there. We will probably see what consequences that has had on the ice when the Sun seriously reaches those areas in about two months.

Comments

[Account Deleted]

Nice review!

On this site (http://pogoda.ru.net/) are registering monthly records.

That record warm months in the Arctic this winter:

December 2011
The warmest December

Vize Island -8.7° (14.7° to normal), the previous -10.6° (1966)
Small Karmakuly (Novaya Zemlya) -2.1° (8.9° to normal), the previous -2.6° (1944)
Kanin Nos -0.3° (5.0° to normal), the previous -0.4° (1953)
Dudinka -15.0° (10.1° to normal), the previous -16.3° (1913)
Vorkuta -7.7° (9.7° to normal), the previous -8.3° (1974)
Pechora -6.5° (9.2° to normal), the previous -6.7° (1974)

January 2012
The warmest January
Vize Island -11.5° (13.4° to normal), the previous -13.4 ° (2006)

February 2012
The warmest February
Hayes Island (Franz Josef Land) -9.6° (13.5° to normal), the previous -13.5° (2005)
Vize Island -11.2° (14.5° to normal), the previous -13.6° (1956)
Dikson -13.3° (12.1° to normal), the previous -15.4° (1931)

The island Wiese three records in a row for 60 years of observation! It is likely that current March will be the fourth!

[Neven]

Thanks for those monthly anomaly data, Arcticicelost80. Very interesting.

Vize/Wiese Island is right between Franz Josef Land, Novaya Zemlya and Severnaya Zemlya.

[Account Deleted]

Not surprisingly, part of the Kara Sea between Cape Desire and island Vize this winter did not freeze.

[Account Deleted]

Cape Desire = Cape Zhelaniya

[Werther]

Hi Neven,
I see I should have put my Svalbard-Franz Josef analyses for last winter over here.
Thanks for the post, confirms my hunch there is spectacular change going on on the Atlantic side...

[Account Deleted]

http://policlimate.com/weather/current/raw_temp_8day_avg.png
By the way the second half of March is going to be on the Atlatic side of the Arctic same warm, like the first half.

[Yvan Dutil]

A whole week of temperature above 0C is expected in Quebec. Normally, snow cover should not survived this week.

[Account Deleted]

"Longyearbyen, Svalbard:
Currently 17.7° C above normal (as much as 20.5° C last week).

Barentsburg, Svalbard:
Currently 10.8° C above normal (as much as 14.9° C a couple of days ago)."

I understood why such a big difference.
At the Norwegian site uses standards 1961-1990 year, and in Russian 1981-2010.

[Neven]

Yes, I also figured it had to be due to differences in baseline. Thanks for looking it up, Arcticicelost80.

[crandles]

UAH Channel 5 February record for Arctic circle:

Top 4:
Year M NoPol Land Ocean
2012 2 1.88 1.89 1.87
2010 2 1.87 1.56 2.36
2006 2 1.82 1.47 2.37
1980 2 1.3 1.58 0.85

For any month, Feb 2012 was 3rd
2010 5 2.09 2.01 2.21
2010 4 1.98 1.86 2.17
2012 2 1.88 1.89 1.87

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt

[Neven]

Diablobanquisa compares this winter's temps with those of previous years.

I see I should have put my Svalbard-Franz Josef analyses for last winter over here.

Indeed, Werther. Which is why I'm copypasting it here:

I use these graphs from wetteronline.de for a lot of weatherinfo all around the Arctic. They are easy to copy to CAD for analysing differences. Last fall I did a ‘warmth volume’ comparison for five stations around the Barentsz-Kara region on 2010 and 2011. Curious what the same approach would show for last winter, I examined Svalbard and Franz Josefland. You bet there’s a formidable difference! As far as day-time max is relevant during winter, Svalbard mean was 5.5 dC higher than last year. That doesn’t look like much while still below zero. But in terms of ‘heat volume’ the difference is enormous. Compared to last summer, it’s anomalous volume was 7 times larger during winter. For Franz Josef, although colder nominally, the difference is even stronger. Heat volume anomaly out there was 20% higher than on Svalbard! What does it mean? I think these waters have turned Atlantic. Of course winter effect would be higher in this changing environment. That’s normal in sea climates. These parts used to be embedded in sea ice once. In polar climate...

[Chris Biscan]

It will be interesting to see if the Hudson Bay becomes ice free over the SouthWest/South side this week/next week as warm southerly winds push ice back and have temps reach the 40s maybe 50s this week with sun light.

[Neven]

I remember from last year that Hudson Bay really late. Looking at the CT SIA graph it started losing area from May 1st onwards. This year the ice should be thicker in much of Hudson Bay.

So yes, it will be interesting to see what happens the coming two weeks. Thanks for the heads-up, Chris.

[Apocalypse4Real]

While we have been focused on a particular set of sites for winter temp anomalies, here is the 90 day global view from Dec 13 to March 11:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_90a.fnl.gif

Also the 180 day anomaly from Sept 14 2011- March 11, 2012:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_180a.fnl.gif

[Kris]

Apocalypse wrote:

Also the 180 day anomaly from Sept 14 2011- March 11, 2012:

******

Bottom line, on the major part of the Arctic there has been a +6 to +10 °C anomaly, which seems pretty worrying to me.
And the "albedo" for what it matters won't help.

[Kevin McKinney]

Interesting take on ice quality:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46687081/ns/technology_and_science-science/#.T16PeEaaHcQ

(From sidebar; currently top item.)

[Pete Williamson]

The warm tongue is fascinating.

On the numbers in the final list they look big but it looks like the natural variability in this region is fairly amazing.

Take just the first site you list, Longyearbyen, Svalbard. It only has max/min data starting 1976 but it has recorded temperature range for March of >50oC (+6 to -42). I hope that put's some perspective on things.

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/climate.month03.html