ASI 2012 update 3: international daily data day

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) and Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2011 period (NSIDC has a good explanation of sea ice extent and area in their FAQ). I also look at other things like regional sea ice area, compactness, temperature and weather forecasts, anything that can be of particular interest. Check out the Arctic sea ice graphs webpage for daily updated graphs, maps and live webcam images.

May 21st 2012

Be careful what you wish for, because you just might get it, as the saying goes.

After complaining that everything was going to pieces for us avid Arctic watchers, with malfunctioning sensors, satellites and servers, suddenly out of the blue a cascade of data came online. First the NSIDC with thickness data from the NASA IceBridge Mission (check out the excellent graph in this blog post), followed by a resumption of IJIS sea ice extent data, and Cryosphere Today sea ice area came back online not long after that. To top it all off, JAXA announced that the satellite that carries the AMSR-2 sensor was succesfully launched and brought into orbit. So from now on May 15th will be known as International Daily Data Day on this blog. I guess that now I will have to give IJIS SIE and CT SIA equal space in these ASI updates. A double amount of work, but hey, I asked for it!

And what's going on with the ice, you may ask. Well, nothing that wasn't expected. There was a slight negative temperature anomaly over the Arctic, but the 2012 trend line has nevertheless come down from its lofty abode and seems to be ready for another clash of the trend lines.

Sea Ice Extent (SIE)

IJIS has altered its graph and instead of some of the most recent years is now showing averages for the 80's, 90's and 2000's (edit: the 'old style plot' is here). This is of course fine, but I like to compare this year with the other years in the 2005-2011 period, so I've decided to make my own graphs (still fiddling around though, so these might change). Here's the IJIS SIE graph for May, for the full thing go to IJIS:

I have left off the last data point, because it goes very low every day (around 200K), but is revised just as much upwards the next day. So this graphs runs up to May 20th.

The current difference between 2012 and the other years is as follows:

• 2005:   -52K (-44,778)
• 2006: +407K (-43,432)
• 2007: +122K (-41,991)
• 2008: +154K (-45,171)
• 2009: -164K (-53,952)
• 2010: +244K (-67,661)
• 2011: +247K (-51,008)

Between brackets is the average daily SIE decrease for the month of May. 2012's average daily SIE decrease for May is currently -49,914 square kilometers.

Mind you, because of the switch from AMSR-E to WindSat (different resolution, different channels and bands) comparisons with previous years aren't perfect, but we'll have to make do.

Sea Ice Area (SIA)

The Cryosphere Today SIA graph for May isn't much different, with 2012 catching up all the way since the end of April:

The current difference between 2012 and the other years is as follows:

• 2005: -209K (-57,201)
• 2006:  +50K (-57,710)
• 2007:   +0K (-52,215)
• 2008: +282K (-69,311)
• 2009: -235K (-58,211)
• 2010: +198K (-75,263)
• 2011: +246K (-53,210)

Between brackets is the average daily area decrease for the month of May. 2012's average daily area decrease for May is currently -69,335 square kilometers.

Cryosphere Today area per IJIS extent (CAPIE)

With IJIS coming back online, I can continue updating the CAPIE (or compactness) graph. It's not extremely useful right now, but from June onwards it can give an indication of the amount of melt ponds as compared to other years (I'll explain why when the time comes, having forgotten myself). Here's a sneak preview:

Sea Level Pressure

I still can't make much sense of the effect of SLP distribution on the Arctic sea ice, and judging from NOAA's Arctic Oscillation index the Arctic isn't really dominated by either high or low pressure systems at the moment:

Here's an animation of SLP images from the DMI Centre for Ocean and Ice for the past 10 days:

The past two weeks a Dipole Anomaly - of which only a weak remnant is left - has been pulling in warmer air towards the Arctic, ending the cold spell that kept freezing over polynyas. As a consequence open water in the Kara and Barentsz Seas stays open now, and a large polynya has formed at the western entrance of the Northwest Passage, as well as in Baffin Bay, west of Kane Basin, also known as the North Water Polynya.

Like I said, I don't really know how to interpret the SLP forecast right now, so there's no use in posting the ECMWF forecast animation. There's a big high forming over Northern Europe, which will probably stall ice transport through Fram Strait, followed by a very big low over the Laptev Sea moving towards the central Arctic. But that's the forecast 6 days from now, so a lot can change before we're there.

Temperatures

Temps are finally above average again north of 80N, according to DMI:

And SSTs have become more anomalous in the Barentsz Sea (when compared to the image I saved for the previous ASI update):

Update conclusion

Just as in 2010, this year's SIE and SIA have gone down extremely fast after a high and late maximum. The only reason 2012 didn't go down quite as fast as 2010, is the anomalously low temperatures over much of the Arctic (see last week's ASI update). 'Was' would be more correct, as the Arctic has been warming up steadily in the past couple of days. I'm under the impression there's quite a bit of extra potential because of all those leads and polynyas freezing over in the last 2-3 weeks. If this comes about, the 2012 trend line will move to the lower half of the pack.

Sunny June is just 10 days away.

Comments

[Al Rodger]

Back in mid-May in "ASI 2012 update 2: no daily data", having noticed MLO weekly CO2 readings had topped 397ppm, Crandles posed the question "Will we reach 400 in 2013 or 2014? Which month and year?" kicking off a discussion.
Since then, as the Northern growing season starts sucking up the CO2, MLO weekly levels have dropped below 397ppm & the MLO average for May will also be below.
In that discussion, I don't think anyone offered May 2012 as an answer to the question but that is what the Washington Post is reporting (Hat Tip - Jo Romm).
Arctic CO2 measurements have topped the 400ppm mark, the first time such levels have been seen for 15 million years or so. (The 800,000 years the WP talk of is the lenght of the Antarctic ice core record. The record from ocean sediments is 2.1 million years long. In both those records (from memory) CO2 never rose above 300ppm.)

[Apocalypse4Real]

Neven,

A new proposal for methane hydrate extraction has been posted, perhaps linked to AMEG.

I do not have time to further source this, but of interest are the first (or most recent) maps of methane torches or plume concentrations across the Arctic.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

[Neven]

Wow, that's a whole book, A4R! It is linked to AMEG, as it is their blog, I believe. I don't know if I have the patience to read all of it, but I'll try.

Meanwhile, Dr. Jeff Masters also writes about the heatwave in southern Greenland.

[Jim_pettit]

CT SIA dropped just 30K km2 yesterday, but that was enough to push it below 10 million km2 for the first time since December 9. SIA now stands 329K km2 below the same date in 2007, and a mere 14K above the same date last year (and should move below last year's same date number tomorrow).

For the month of May, SIA dropped a whopping 2.429 million km2, an average of more than 78K km2 per day. By way of comparison, May 2011 saw a loss of 1.797 million km2 (58K per day), while May 2007 dropped a mere 1.435 million km2 (46K per day).

It's taken area just 62 days to drop from maximum to below 10 million km2. That's by far the quickest ever; second place goes to 2003, which saw that accomplished in 77 days. (The 1979-2011 average is 98 days, with the longest being 125 days.)

[Apocalypse4Real]

Jim,

I really appreciate your work in this area, these trends help shape my focus on larger Arctic issues, and your charts are invaluable.

The small 30 km2 drop yesterday may be due to ice being pushed through the Fram Straight and expanding in area. See:

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrf/nowcast/icespddrf2012053118_2012060100_035_arcticicespddrf.001.gif

On the other hand, the IARC/IJIS data shows a 212 Km2 drop from 0531-0601.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv

A big difference that may not stand on later adjustment.

[Patrice Monroe Pustavrh]

@A4R: I think it has been discussed here that last day IJIS data is not very usable due to huge corrections. In fact, it is better to skip 2 days for this reason.

[me.yahoo.com/a/nSjChi4X3vr8X3DRw93GkY1.cerja.8nvWk-]

Apocalypse4Real, looking at the CT regional graphs there's no sign of such a rise in the Greenland sea region. The largest rise for yesterday appears to be in the E Siberian sea.

Phil.

[crandles]

DMI has date as 18 June 2010 but with lines for 2011 and 2012 running to mid Jun. Hmm, a bit odd but maybe they are in process of getting on top of the problems.

[idunno]

Hi all,

I seem to remember from last year that Neven wasn't keen on the idea of a group submission from here for the SEARCH forecast.

Those of you who feel frustrated at being so cruelly disenfranchised might like to exercise your democratic rights on the following excellent site:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/06/01/sea-ice-news-volume-3-number-6-sea-ice-outlook-forecasting-contest-for-2012-is-online/

[crandles]

What cruel disenfranchisment?

SEARCH seems to welcome submissions even from idiots like me ;)

Neven even seems happy to have me post about my submissions. So go on prepare a SEARCH submission and maybe Neven will also invite you to be a guest contributor. (How's that for a prize ?!?)

[Neven]

I wasn't keen on submitting a poll result. A group submission would be cool, but I'm not keen on having to coordinate that (and wouldn't know where to start). For me, crandles and Larry Hamilton represent the ASI blog a bit, which is plenty great.

BTW, will launch the first poll tomorrow. Or should I do two, for IJIS SIE and CT SIA? Or will that be confusing?

[idunno]

Hi Neven and crandles,

I was kidding; but Watts's poll is quite amusing.

I wouldn't normally do so, but as several commentators on his site have already revealed their votes, I'm prepared to say that I picked the last option.

[Neven]

I have received an answer from DMI with regards to the SLP and SAT maps. They are also experiencing some technical difficulties which will probably be solved next week.

[crandles]

How about one poll to compare to SEARCH ie aimed at NSIDC monthly average extent

and for interest a daily one, I suggest CT area

less sure about also having an IJIS one, but I won't complain if there are 3.

[Neven]

I received this 'snippet' through Google Alerts:

The Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition (CHINARE) in the summer 2010, primarily from 21 July to 28 August, in the ice zone of Arctic Pacific Sector, between 150° W to 180° W to 88.5° N, conducted comprehensive scientific studies on atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions, using icebreaker R.V. Xuelong. Measurements made included underway visual observations of snow and ice conditions at half-hourly time scale and EM31-measured ice thickness at one 12-day and eight short-term (3–4 h each) ice stations. The visual observation data are compared with AMSR-E ice concentration, ice thickness measured by a hanging EM31 from the vessel, and video-recorded image-derived ice concentration and pond coverage. A grid of 8 profiles of ice thickness measurements (four repeats) was conducted at the 12-day ice station (∼86°50' N–87°20' N) in the central Arctic and an average 2 cm day−1 melt rate, primarily bottom melt, was found, after surface melting had almost ceased. The high bottom melt rate, as compared with previous results from other studies, is consistent with the high floe speed (mean 0.17 m s−1) that is also larger than that previously reported. We also found that the daily AMSR-E ice concentration data can be used to map the marginal ice zone (MIZ) and its change. There are clear differences between the MIZ and pack ice zone in terms of ice concentration, thickness, ice type, floe size, as well as pond coverage. Results indicate that, as compared with the 2005 data from the Healy/Oden Trans-Arctic Expedition for the Arctic Pacific Sector (9 August to 10 September), the 2010 was first-year ice dominant (vs. the multiyear ice dominant in 2005), 70% or less in ice concentration (vs. 90% in 2005), 94–114 cm in ice thickness (vs. 150 cm in 2005). No snow cover was observed on the ice south of 78° N and 8–10 cm mean snow depth due to new snowfall events, which melted away after 17 August (vs. no snow cover south of 84.3° N or ~10 cm snow depth further north in 2005). Those changes indicate the continuation of ice thinning, less concentration, and younger ice after the 2007 shift, when a record minimum sea ice extent was observed. Overall, the measurements provided a valuable dataset of sea ice morphological properties over the Arctic Pacific Sector in summer 2010, which confirms, by comparison with previous data, that a "new normal" of Arctic sea ice is now present and is a benchmark for measurements of possible future changes.

The Cryosphere

[crandles]

My first reaction to WUWT poll options was 5 options under 4.6 and 11 options over seem a little lop-sided. However, I suppose you could argue highest value in last 3 years is 5.39 and there are only 3 options above that and 13 below. So I suppose that is as lop-sided that way so the distribution of options can't be considered too bad.

[Account Deleted]

Surface melt now spread throughout the Arctic.

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/msfa-NHe-a-2012150.sir.gif
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/msfa-NHe-a-2012151.sir.gif
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/msfa-NHe-a-2012152.sir.gif

In 2010 and 2011 it was in those days was not yet.

[Werther]

I’ve had a nice time in my house in France. So last two weeks I’ve just been glancing around. To me, most things have been said and the grand plan is clear. So why an entry? An idle desire to put out another grave prediction? I’d better wait for PIOMAS May results. But, as I have followed MODIS representation, things are becoming clear.
As I supposed before, harsh lower tropospheric temps over Alaska, Bering Strait and Chukchen Peninsula haven’t worked deep down into the ocean top layer. And my prediction for the fastest decline of extent in the satellite era was only wrong in it’s timing. It occurred mostly through May, not April. Soon, around day 160, I’ll do another CAD count on a 90.000 km2 part of r03c03. I’m quite sure it will reveal conditions have worsened. How much? Much. The mesh metal pattern shows over the larger part of the Basin, out into the Beaufort and opening, into the ESAS and so on. It indicates spread, IAW small volume/high extent. The bold way polynia’s (although they’re usually there) are forming at the fringes and myriads of opening leads are showing, FI north of Frantsa Yosefa, indicates that the top layer of the Arctic Ocean isn’t (and hasn’t been through winter) as homogeneously cold and fresh as thought.
So what? A minimum area record again, just as I predicted this time last year, no matter what weather emerges. Extent? Last four weeks it took 10 days for a million km2 less. Given bad ice weather, 7MK will pass start of July, 4 MK mid August and minimum might well be in the 3.5 MK range, leaving a pack completely confined in the Central Basin north of Ellesmere.
How? Just count… 10 MK now, minus Hudson, Baffin, Barentsz, Kara and parts elsewhere (June)
7 MK minus rest of Beaufort, Chukchi, Laptev, a lot of ESAS and CAA and Basin north of Frantsa Yosefa (July).
4 MK minus the rest of FYI up into the Basin (September)
North Pole ice free…..

[Werther]

Watch DMI’s Daily Mean Temperatures in the Arctic 1958 – 2012! Well in line with AIL80’s entry above.

[Kris]

The Juin Arctic parade has been updated with Juin 2012.

Meanwile you could have already a look at the September parade.

I've added the maps with the minimum extend according nsidc.org, except for 2003 and 2004 which I couldn't find in their at times a bit haphazardly organised archives.

The whole year at Arctic parades but still under construction as it is quite a bore to download the images one by one from the Bremen site.

[L. Hamilton]

For the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook this month, I sent in another simple Gompertz curve extrapolation -- the same Sep 2012 prediction (4.3m) I made in Oct 2011, based on previous years Sep extent.
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/10/september-2011-sea-ice-extent-looking-ahead.html

That previous graph showed Uni Bremen data (RIP) whereas my new SEARCH contribution uses NSIDC, but they both come to 4.3m for 2012.

It's not that I have great faith in the Gompertz model, or curve-extrapolation in general. Rather I think this approach provides an interesting, very simple null hypothesis for comparison with more sophisticated statistical or physical models.

[L. Hamilton]

Neven, thanks for that Chinese report, I hadn't seen that before. Again it seems that the view from an icebreaker finds ice less substantial than extent or area alone indicate.

[Voyageur]

Larry,
Is there a link to your new Gompertz model based on the NSIDC?
Thanks

[Neven]

Arcticicelost80, do you know when this 'darkening' started in previous years? I don't feel like wading through all those ASCAT images, but perhaps will if needs be.

[D]

Is it just me, or is 30% extent at an all time record low, even while 15% extent is slightly above record low?

Also, antarctic sea ice extent has been decreasing back to average, so the total global extent is way down.

[L. Hamilton]

Voyageur, I sent a copy of my SEARCH contribution to Neven, so he might post something about it later. Two graphics show the model and a few simulated future paths:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/2012_Gompertz_extent1.png

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/2012_Gompertz_extent4.png

[L. Hamilton]

D, the DMI 30% extent estimates have gone wonky the past couple of weeks. The most recent numbers I've seen give a 6/1 2012 extent still above 2010 and 2011, but I'm not sure whether that's stable.

Their graph as of this morning still shows an unreal extension to 6/18/2012, but they're working on the problem.

[DrTskoul]

I have updated the figure format to make it more readable.

MASIE - Regional Update @ day 152 - New Format

[Neven]

DMI SAT and SLP is back up. SIE not yet.

[Account Deleted]

"Arcticicelost80, do you know when this 'darkening' started in previous years?"

Neven, when viewing pictures, I got the impression:

2012 152 day
2011 153 day
2010 162 day

In general, surface melting in 2010 started late in the Central Arctic.

[Neven]

Thanks, Arcticicelost80. I'll have a look at those periods.

DMI SAT and SLP down again.

Oh, and ASI update 4 is up. Please continue there.

[Neven]

Thanks for the graph, DrTskoul. I've copied it on the regional graphs page.