An early opening of the Northern Sea Route?

A couple of days ago I noticed on the LANCE-MODIS satellite image that Vilkitsky Strait was already devoid of fast ice. This strait between the Siberian coast and the islands of Severnaya Zemlya is one of the key areas for navigating the Northern Sea Route, also known as the Northeast Passage. In this animation I made in 2010 the ice cleared around day 192 (July 11th), over a month later than this year.

But how about the rest of the Northern Sea Route? Well, we know that westwards from Vilkitsky Strait a lot of the ice has disappeared already, because the ice never really properly thickened there this winter. As to the regions eastwards of Vilkitsky Strait it so happens to be that the Alfred Wegener Institute issued a press release yesterday that tells us just that. I've translated some of it:

Bremerhaven, June 8th 2012, The Northeast Passage, the sea route along the Russian coast, will probably be ice-free at an early stage again this year. This is what is predicted by sea ice physicists from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research after measurement flights over the Laptev Sea, known among experts as the 'ice engine of the Arctic'. At the end of last winter the researchers encountered vast expanses of ice that had a maximum thickness of 50 cm, which will hardly be enough to resist the summer sun for a long time.

"These results have really surprised us," says expedition member Dr. Thomas Krumpen. According to measurements in the same area in the winter of 2007/2008 the ice was up to 1 meter thicker. The main cause of these obvious discrepancies is wind, says Krumpen. "It can be different from one year to the next. If the wind blows from the main land over the sea, like happened this past winter, the pack ice is blown northwards out of the Laptev Sea. This causes open expanses of water, so-called polynyas, to appear before the coast. Of course, these surface waters cool off very quickly when the air temperature is minus 40 degrees Celsius. New, thin ice forms and is blown away again by the wind. Because of this cycle large parts of the Laptev Sea can be covered with expanses of thin ice, depending on the wind-force and continuity," Thomas Krumpen explains.

Ice thickness in the Laptev Sea at the end of last winter (April 20th 2012). Sea ice thickness was measured by the SMOS (Soil Moisture Ocean Saliniy) satellite, that can measure ice thickness up to 50 cm [see this blog post for more info, N.]. The black line shows the flight trajectory of the AWI scientists. SMOS data: Lars Kaleschke, KlimaCampus, UniversitäŠt Hamburg

Read the rest of the press release (in German) here.

So the Kara Sea is melting out fast, the fast ice has broken up in Vilkitsky Strait, there's a large polynya in the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea isn't looking particularly great either. Last year the Northern Sea Route was opening up around July 21st (see last year's blog post), four weeks later than in 2010 (see blog post).

I think we're going to see more cargo ships this year taking the shorter route from Asia to Europe. More on that later this melting season.

Comments

[Artful Dodger]

Good find, Werther and Neven ;^)

50 cm of sea ice is about 12 days worth of bottom melt at the seasonal average rate of -4 cm per day... vast areas of dark ocean will be open just in time for the summer solstice and the following 4 weeks of near maximum solar insolation
(click this image for more on Annual Solar Insolation):

The Chart above shows that between May 21 and July 21st each year, the further North above the Arctic Circle (66.6 Degrees N latitude), the GREATER the energy delivered by the Sun. That is, MORE insolation available for top melt, and more bottom melt where there are large sections of open water.

These are part of the positive feedbacks that result in Arctic Amplification, and in turn accelerating Climate Change. 2013 promises to be the convergence of both an El Nino year and near the top of the solar cycle. All this will be on top of the already strong Arctic warming...

Meltdown 2013?

[Artful Dodger]

Vilkitsky Strait is at 77°57′N latitude, and so lies about half-way between the Arctic Circle and the North Pole on the Insolation Chart above.

That means an average of more than 350 watts of solar energy strike each square meter of the Vilkitsky Strait right now. This insolation increases to 400 w/m^2 by June 20, then stays above 350 until July 20...

So, a late freeze-up this year? Then an even greater expanse of thin sea ice for Spring 2013?

[Piotr Djaków]

Impressive:
http://gfspl.rootnode.net/klimat/JAXA.png

[Glacierchange.wordpress.com]

This will likely then lead to another problem year for the glaciers of Svernaya Zemlya . Just returned from Eastern Snow Conference where Joan Ramage of Lehigh, reported on the greater number of melt days for the glaciers on the Kara Sea side of the archipelago versus the Laptev side. Also will be watching this summer for new islands off of Devon Island.

[Piotr Djaków]

Entire 2011 was very warm in the Kara Sea
http://gfspl.rootnode.net/klimat/arctic/2011year.png

Monthly anomalies > +15 deg. C. in February.
http://gfspl.rootnode.net/klimat/arctic/201112.png
http://gfspl.rootnode.net/klimat/arctic/201201.png
http://gfspl.rootnode.net/klimat/arctic/201202.png

Arctic temperature anomalies fro ERA INTERIM reanalisys:
http://gfspl.rootnode.net/klimat/arctic/

[Kris]

Piotr Djaków wrote:

ERA INTERIM reanalisys

Peter, maybe it's just me, but here none of the links you posted are valid ...

[Piotr Djaków]

There was some serious server problems. Now it seems to be ok.

[Kris]

Piotr Djaków wrote:

Now it seems to be ok.

Indeed it is. Thank you.

[Kris]

Piotr Djaków wrote:

ERA INTERIM reanalisys

Well, apparently we have overestimated the cold spell in Alaska and the Bering Sea.

November 2011 and January 2012 were deep under avarage. However, December 2011 just a bit, and from Februari 2012 on above or far above average. As well as the entire Arctic.

Explains why the melting is going that fats now.

[dorlomin]

Over the past 4 days there has been a lot of change in the Eastern Siberian side of the Arctic sea ice. This early opening is appearing to be on the cards.

Though as always the weather and the arctic are fickle.

[AmbiValent]

The UB picture looks quite colorful today. Are those likely to be real openings, or melt ponds, or data errors that will be gone tomorrow?

[michael sweet]

UB often has a lot of melt ponds at this time of year. If you wait a week or so melt ponds become obvious. Real melt the ice is gone, for melt ponds the ice is still there. You can also cross check at Arctic.io and see what the picture looks like.