SEARCH 2012 Sea Ice Outlook: June report

There it is, the first Sea Ice Outlook of this year. The SIO is organized by the interagency "system-scale, cross-disciplinary, long-term arctic research program" SEARCH (Study of Environmental Arctic Change), and is a compilation of projections for the September 2012 Arctic sea ice extent, based on NSIDC monthly extent values. These projections are submitted by professionals as well as amateurs, such as our own Chris Randles and Larry Hamilton.

Here's the summary for the June report:

With 19 responses for the Pan-Arctic Outlook (plus 6 regional Outlook contributions), the June Sea Ice Outlook projects a September 2012 arctic sea extent median value of 4.4 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.3 and 4.7 million square kilometers (Figure 1) [The median value for the 2011 June SIO was 4.7 million square km, N.]. This compares to observed September values of 4.6 in 2011, 4.9 in 2010, and 5.4 in 2009. Both the 2012 quartile values and the range (4.1 to 4.9) are quite narrow. The 2012 June Outlook differs from all previous Outlooks in that there are no projections of extent greater than 5.0. It is always important to note for context that all 2012 estimates are well below the 1979–2007 September mean of 6.7 million square kilometers.

And here's the figure showing all the projections (click for a larger version):

These are the September monthly average minimums in the 2005-2011 period:

• 2005: 5.57 million square km
• 2006: 5.92 million square km
• 2007: 4.30 million square km
• 2008: 4.73 million square km
• 2009: 5.39 million square km
• 2010: 4.93 million square km
• 2011: 4.61 million square km

If you want to compare this outlook with those of previous years, there's an archive on the SEARCH home page (in the left hand bar). Here's an overview of blog posts on this subject in 2010 and 2011.

And remember that there's a poll on this blog (in the right hand bar) for the NSIDC 2012 minimum monthly/September sea ice extent. There's another poll as well for this year's Cryosphere Today minimum daily sea ice area. These polls run until June 30th (you can re-vote if you wish by going to the poll directly) and I'll post the results when the SEARCH July report comes out. Check out this blog post for more info on the difference between the two polls.

Comments

[Nightvid Cole]

Kind of annoying that PIOMAS doesn't have their outlook page updated to 2012 yet: http://psc.apl.washington.edu/zhang/IDAO/seasonal_outlook.html

[Peter Ellis]

The PIOMAS prediction for this year is 4.4 million sq km, listed in the SEARCH outlook as "Zhang and Lindsay"

Full details here:
http://www.arcus.org/files/search/sea-ice-outlook/2012/06/pdf/pan-arctic/zhang_lindsay.pdf

The same pair do an alternative prediction, which is simple a multiple linear regression based on a single initialisation field from PIOMAS. This one is generally referred to as "Lindsay and Zhang", but they seem not to have put in into the SEARCH exercise this time. This method gives a prediction of 4.06, which is archived on Ron Lindsay's page here:
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/lindsay/Prediction/2012/September_ice_extent_2012.html

[Chris Reynolds]

They seem a lot more bunched this year than in previous years.

As for myself, I simply don't know. I wouldn't argue against a crash this year (for once).

[Jon Torrance]

It's sobering that the Beitsch et al, prediction has dropped from 4.7+/-1.3 M km2 when they submitted to 4.3 +/- 0.7 posted online today. Though that does, I suppose, also demonstrate just how sensitive these estimates can be to short term acceleration/deceleration - a few days or a week of slow change and that estimate might bounce right back up again.

None of the other individuals or groups submitting to SIO update their estimate daily, do they>

[Arne Perschel]

There seems to be a divide between models and statistics. Is that because models tend to underestimate changes while statistics tend to follow the observed trend?
I do think statistics are less reliable in the end game as a large area (+1 million km2) of thin ice might persist well into the 2020's, even though the volume would essentially reach near-zero during the second half of this decade.

[Yvan Dutil]

@Jon Torrance Their method is effectively very unstable now. If you check their graph, the slope is dominated by one data point: 2007. From what I have seen, this mostly the case all the time. Anyway, from their own data their predictor is essentially worthless before June.

ftp://ftp-projects.zmaw.de/seaice/prediction/2012/prediction_timeseries.png

[Wayne Kernochan]

I'm sorry, I just couldn't help posting a rant in response to this plus the latest area data: http://waynekernochanblog.blogspot.com/.

Please tell me if these things are just annoying. - w

[Twemoran]

Wayne

You are an optimist.

Terry

[Espen Olsen]

Wayne

I appreciate your inserts!

Espen

[DrTskoul]

I am the lesser half of the family that reads and analyzes these things. I keep the information from the better half. She will get too depressed, as she is an ardent environmentalist.

But I cannot help play and replay the various scenarios in my head. Many times, I feel like you Wayne, like the world has been bitten but the stupid bug, and all are turning into moron zombies. I cannot explain it and I cannot seem to understand how we can get them out of their stupor.

[Werther]

Dr Tskoul, I may half understand, soaked in WaldhimbeerGeist 40% after watching the Dutch team being drowned in the EU soccer Championship. My God what’s the stupid bug? My better half doesn’t want to be bugged by my scenario’s too. How could one explain the thing really important is going up in the Arctic? Urgent more than Euro, creed conflict or whatever….

[DrTskoul]

Sorry...stupidity bug I meant...Sometimes the greek in my does not translate very well!! I sympathize with you re: voetbal.

[DrTskoul]

Yum rasberry spirit!!

[Kalle GZ]

All the graphs are showing record breaking declines even though I don't see anything serious that could be causing this. What is it? A sudden collapse when the thin ice decided to surrender?

[Llosmith57]

Wayne,
I worry about my grandkids future every day. The future seems so far away and yet near at hand. FWIW I can't look any further ahead than 2045-2050 because I expect rationing of oil and other commodities to have triggered another global conflict by then. Survival not science will dominate everyones plans and expectations. 8.5 billion mouths to feed and no fresh water to drink.

[Account Deleted]

Lloyd, I suspect we will see the impacts of the above earlier than 2045-2050. In the west it will initially be noticed as a decline in standard of living, but in the developing world - we already see some of the impacts - social unrest in Indonesia in 2008 due to fuel/food prices spike, increased militarization and posturing in the South China sea to enforce territorial claims (and access to potential oil reserves). But that is off-topic

[Account Deleted]

Kalle GZ wonder if this is playing a part
http://www.seaice.de/Roesel_JGR_2012.pdf
We were all commentiing on how blue the ice was looking this year

[Neven]

I think melt ponds are definitely playing a part as CAPIE is really low right now (I'll do an ASI update this weekend). Other reason is that we have entered melting season rules: big Beaufort Gyre caused by big high over Beaufort (this will change now, so the big declines should stop). And of course all that easy ice on the fringes.

[Seke Rob]

Worry about the grandkids... Skating away on thin ice (Jethro Tull, appropriate album title Thick as a Brick)

[Apocalypse4Real]

Kalle:

"All the graphs are showing record breaking declines"

I am watching another source for sea ice which seems to make the thin ice more apparent. The MET Godiva data coloration makes the gradation of ice concentration across the Arctic stand out.

Given the fracturing and higher temps, I think we are going to witness continued unprecedented ice melt.

http://data.ncof.co.uk:8080/ncWMS/godiva2.html

Look at the layer in Google Earth or Blue Marble for the best viewing.

[Wayne Kernochan]

Thx all, especially the more scientific, for reassuring me that I'm not *completely* at odds with the evidence.

@Twemoran: I believe it's the first time I've been told I'm an optimist and I can take it as a compliment :)

Back to your regularly scheduled programs ...

[Phil]

Apocalypse4Real -- could you provide a bit more guidance of how to get the view you are referring to? I follow the link and then not sure what to do next :) Thanks Phil

[Apocalypse4Real]

Phil (and all)

Here are the steps:

1) Go to http://data.ncof.co.uk:8080/ncWMS/godiva2.html

2) On the left side click the "+" beside "Global-Arctic Ocean."

3) On the new menu select "sea ice area fraction." That will open a global map with the sea ice area percentage bar on the right - measuring 1.00 at the top (red).

4) Next to the sea ice area percentage bar is a little "hand" icon, and just below that is a "+" on a blue tab. Click on the "+".

5) When the new menu opens, click on the button for "north polar stereographic" view.

6) When the polar view opens, click the "- (minus)" on top of the blue bar to close it.

7) The controls for changing the window size/view are on the left.

8) If you want to save a specific area/view, click "screenshot" below the image.

9) If you click "open in Google Earth," it creates a downloadable "kmz" file which usually opens in Google Earth - although sometimes it doesn't. I find it easier to manipulate the layer in Google Earth.

10) If you wish to view prior dates, click on the calendar. The bold black numbers are the available dates/data.

Apologies if this was elementary, but I just started using this resource and want you to avoid my 30+ minutes of trial and error.

[Simon]

Phil,
There's a white + in a small blue background at the top-right corner of the map image. Click to expand a choice of map styles.
Good luck.

[Neven]

Thanks for the tutorial, A4R. I used this system for TOPAZ thickness maps, but didn't know it could be used for this too. Where do they get their data from?

[Apocalypse4Real]

Neven,

The source is the OSTIA data from the GHRSST satellite project.

http://www.ncof.co.uk/OSTIA-Daily-Sea-Surface-Temperature-and-Sea-Ice.html

It has an animation capability. Run the animation from 1 June till today - it is sobering to visualize the rapid and drastic change in sea ice concentration.

[Phil]

Thank you very much indeed A4R. Really useful
Phil

[FrankD]

Seke Rob wins the internetz! I've been waiting for for someone here to link to that :-)

"Well, do you ever get the feeling that the story's
too damn real and in the present tense?
Or that everybody's on the stage, and it seems like
you're the only person sitting in the audience?
Skating away on the thin ice of the New Day."

Yes, I do. I shake my head to think that we live in one of those times that people afterwards will look back on and shake their heads, and wonder what the hell we were thinking...

Minor quibble, though - the album was War Child. Thick as a Brick didn't have songs on it, it was one long song:
"See! The summer lightning casts its bolts upon you
and the hour of judgement draweth near.
Would you be the fool
stood in his suit of armour or
the wiser man who rushes clear?
:-/

[Kevin McKinney]

No, wayne, not annoying. Depressing, maybe, but much more than annoying. People have to keep telling the truth.

One nit, though--it's the *UK's* David Cameron. Canada has Stephen Harper as PM, who's probably worse. Sadly, the Canadian government right now is doing things in terms of dismantling environmental science and regulation that the US Tea Party can still only dream about.

[John Christensen]

I have been absent from discussions for a while, just observing the ice, and how depressing that has been, especially for a naive optimist like me, who had hoped that the late gains this winter and spring would provide some bolstering of the ice and resilience in early summer..

What I have also noticed is that the jet stream over Western Europe is much further south than normal, causing 3.5-4.0C colder than average mean temps in many areas for the first half of June. Is the jet stream impacted by the lack of ice in Barents and Kara?