ASI 2012 update 6: piggy bank

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) and Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2011 period (NSIDC has a good explanation of sea ice extent and area in their FAQ). I also look at other things like regional sea ice area, compactness, temperature and weather forecasts, anything that can be of particular interest.

Check out the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website for
daily updated graphs, maps and live webcam images.

July 1st 2012

The ASI update from two weeks ago ended with a couple of questions:

Will the conditions that were so conducive to melting have an inertia-like effect on the SIE and SIA numbers? And what is that big low going to do? Will it tear up the ice pack so we get to see the holes we did in the 2010 melting season? And how about those highs over the Siberian coast during Summer Solstice?

As expected the speedy decrease slowed down considerably, but enough was going on all around the Arctic for the 2012 SIE and SIA trend lines to stay close to the bottom years. That big low-pressure system definitely left a mark all over the Arctic, see for instance the holes in the ice pack on this satellite image for June 26th. It is very reminiscent of 2010, but earlier this time around. And those highs over the Siberian coast? I think they had something to do with SST anomaly charts needing extra colours.

On the day the last ASI update came out, LiveScience had an article about this year's potential new record, with a couple of quotes from the NSIDC's Dr Walt Meier (also known as Saint Walt because of his missionary work in certain corners of the blogosphere):

The tilt of the Earth's axis means the sun does not set above the Arctic Circle on the summer solstice, with summer days growing longer even farther north. As a result, the more dark water exposed to sunlight around this time, the more heat it can soak up.

"In a way it is almost like building up a bank account of heat," Meier said.

Everything is pointing towards a lot of savings in this respect, and interest will probably be high too. But 2012 also has a little piggy bank of melting potential that the other years with low SIE and SIA did not have. While melting very rapidly on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, 2012 decrease is still relatively slow in easy ice places like Hudson Bay and the Greenland Sea. If the weather allows 2012 to break that little piggy bank we will witness another radical nosedive.

All of this and more in ASI update 6.

Sea Ice Extent (SIE)

The trend lines on most SIE and SIA graphs are already pointing downwards and have 2012 in first spot (yes, even fake skeptic darling Arctic-ROOS), but again, IJIS is more conservative:

The fast decline in the first two weeks of the month leveled off somewhat, but 2012 has nevertheless just dipped below 2011, and is now in second place behind 2010.

The current difference between 2012 and other years (without the unrealistic last data point that gets revised upwards) is as follows:

• 2005: -496K (-57,531)
• 2006: -169K (-59,609)
• 2007: -288K (-63,328)
• 2008: -578K (-58,500)
• 2009: -667K (-55,938)
• 2010: +282K (-74,120)
• 2011:     -3K (-66,010)

Between brackets is the average daily SIE decrease for the month of June. 2012's average daily SIE decrease for June turned out -76,771 km2 per day, which is the highest average daily decrease for June in the 2005-2012 period.

Sea Ice Area (SIA)

After the recent spectacular decline on the Cryosphere Today SIA graph, the 2012 trend line stayed relatively low, but was joined by big melter 2010:

 

As 2012 keeps producing century breaks it has dipped below 2010 again. One interesting thing to keep an eye on is the CT SIA anomaly graph because we're getting awfully close to the minus 2 million square km anomaly mark, which would be really early for the time of the year:The current difference between 2012 and the other years is as follows:

• 2005: -1,025K (-93,233)
• 2006:  -730K (-88,414)
• 2007:  -540K (-101,301)
• 2008:  -822K (-86,647)
• 2009: -1,340K (-86,332)
• 2010:   -43K (-105,310)
• 2011:  -373K (-101,230)

Between brackets is the average daily area decrease for the month of June. With one more day to go, 2012's average daily area decrease for June is currently -110,729 square km per day. I think it's safe to say that this will be the highest daily average decrease for June. Can you imagine how high it would've been if the weather wouldn't have switched?

Cryosphere Today area per IJIS extent (CAPIE)

Our CAPIE or compactness ratio went up a bit again, but with CT SIA going down again faster than IJIS SIE in the past couple of days, the ratio is hovering in the record zone again:

Where the main reason for the relatively low CAPIE we saw in the last ASI update was melt ponding, this time around I think a role is also played by those holes that were blown into the ice pack by cyclonic winds. But the Sun is still beating down on the ice and ocean big time, let there be no doubt about it. So lots of melt ponds, but lots of absorbed solar energy in those melt ponds as well.

Regional SIE and SIA

Regional graph of the week:
Baffin Bay SIA is low for this time of the year. Not only because the ice is disappearing fast, but also because there is no ice transport from the straits and channels in the Canadian Archipelago. The Northwest Passage has started to break up at the western entrance, but in Lancaster Sound, the eastern entrance, an ice arch is still holding up (see blog post). The ice arch in at the southern end of Nares Strait has just started to disintegrate, and it will take a week or two for ice transport to get going from the Arctic Basin towards Baffin Bay (see blog post). However, it increasingly looks like the bay will be a death trap for that ice as waters seem to have warmed up significantly in the last three weeks, due to insolation and high air temperatures. I discussed the effects of that for the adjacent southwest coast of Greenland in a blog post that was posted earlier today: The dark side of Greenland. With no sea ice as a buffer temperatures might shoot up even more.

This corner of the Arctic looks particularly bad this year. In a couple of days I will write a blog post comparing the region in 2012 with other years. If you can't wait, you can compare concentration maps yourself on the ASI Graphs page.

Sea Level Pressure

As usual I start with an animation of SLP images from the Danish Meteorological Institute to see what has happened in the past two weeks:

So what the ECMWF model forecasted, came about: a low moved over the Beaufort Sea, increasing cloudiness and bringing the Beaufort Gyre to a grinding halt. This was the main reason that SIE and SIA decrease slowed down. But as we can see, the blue cyclone has disappeared and some yellow has started to reappear. This is already getting reflected in the numbers, with decrease on the increase again, which just goes to show how poised the Arctic still is for rapid decline.

But what does the ECMWF weather forecast have in store for the coming 6 days? Here's the panel:

There's no two ways about it: a big high is taking over. This will almost certainly lead to a rapid decline, as high pressure systems bring clear skies and thus a lot of solar energy will reach the ice and water. 2012 would be taking an even more vertical nosedive on graphs than it did in the first two weeks of this month, if it weren't for that high being so big and spread out. The lack of isobars and strong lows over the Laptev Sea, signals to me that the Beaufort Gyre won't be turning very fast, and so I'm suspecting we won't be seeing an above average transport of ice out of Fram Strait. In other words, no strong Arctic Dipole Anomaly.

Temperatures

Air temperatures are relatively high in important places like the Siberian Seas and the Canadian Archipelago...
...but all in all air temps aren't anything out of the ordinary, with no orange or yellow at northern latitudes. The DMI mean temperature above 80N graph agrees:

On the other hand, I can't remember ever seeing a DMI SST anomaly map like this one:

The colours can jump from one day to the next, but it has been progressing towards this more and more. And it only makes sense, as we knew those highs over the Barentsz and Kara Seas would let a lot of sunshine through to be absorbed by the dark waters below. In the past there used to be ice here to reflect that solar energy back into space. Not any longer.

The only positive thing I see on this SST anomaly map is the purple, blue and green colours in the Bering Sea and Strait. This just might be the one thing (after weather patterns of course) that can keep this year from smashing all the records. But more on that in a separate blog post later this week.

Update conclusion

Arctic sea ice decrease had a small hiccup that lasted about 10 days, but 2012 remained close to the other big melt years 2010 and 2011, and now it looks like the weather will give it another turbo boost. Right around the start of July, one of the most important months in the melting season (especially for extent). Clear skies will do destruction, but the winds will determine whether this second nosedive of the melting season will be just a nosedive, or the mother of all nosedives.

There's still enough easy ice potential in Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay, the Greenland and East Siberian Seas for 2012 to take a very big headstart and start nibbling at thicker ice at the edges of the Central Arctic much earlier than other years. Of course, there's no use in looking too far ahead, as weather patterns can completely switch in just a few days. But not the coming week. Look for 2012 to go low again in the 7-10 days to come.

PS the first oil tankers have left port to take advantage of an early opening of the Northern Sea Route.

Comments

[Werther]

Thanks Neven,
Your easy potential in Hudson and Baffin is about 500K. Next week should work extent down to 8MK through that and adds in the CAA, Kara (the 100K rest) and Laptev.
But that's extent.
As far as visual quality could say anything on thickness, I would expect PIOMAS june to reflect that. There's only 1,5MK left in the Central Arctic Basin in the more or less continuous mesh pattern. The other SIX,5 MK is patternless floes, individually visible on MODIS.

[Steve Bloom]

Someone may have already linked this, and if so apologies for the duplication. Good for Greeneace!

[Rob Dekker]

Neven, thanks for a great overview again.
This is the time that last year and 2010 'slowed down' for a week or two, so if your forcast is correct, then we are going to be in unprecedented territory.

I'm really quite amazed on how fast the Arctic is changing, and how in the past few years everything seems to accellerate.

I really expected that, after the harsh winter (coldest on satellite record) in the West Arctic, that melt would slow down there significantly, and melt out would be much slower than average. But when we look at the developments in the Chukchi :

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.10.html

we see that 2012 is indeed some 100-150 k km^2 behind where 2011 was (maybe adding to the piggy-bag). But that is still well below average. Since the Bering strait water is still below average (see your SST anomaly graph above) it is NOT likely that Bering strait ocean heat flux input plays a major role IN THIS CASE. So one may wonder where else that heat comes from that is still keeping the Chukchi below average ?

Is it atmospheric heat from lower latitudes, because of a general warmer planet ? Or is it something local (like decreased cloud cover, or preferential wind conditions over the May/June 2012 period ?
Or maybe a more outlandish explanation like ocean heat flux during winter keeping the ice thinner, or direct GHG forcing over the Arctic ?

In anticipation of your opinion on this, I'm looking forward to your post on the Bering, and how much (or little) 'memory' the Western Arctic is showing about it's past winter conditions.

[Seke Rob]

JAXA has again posted a > 100K Km square pre- to pre-adjustment (122K), suggesting another final century is in the offing:

Final__ PreAdjst
9144688 9089219
9057031 9001094
xxxxxxx 8878125

With this *prediction*, the <10M to <9M step chart is expected to close with 13 days needed to loose another million km square in extent, 3 days faster than 2011 and thus making this step complete on same date as last year. It's leap year, so on day count really a day more from Jan.1. See http://bit.ly/IJISMD . The 546,000 Km2 extra that was there at 2012 peak proofed no safety-line, but maybe it was. What would the state have been now if that had not been there? Looking forward to some PolarStern sea ice thickness reporting in the weekly log from Fram (hope they do).

Rob

[Al Rodger]

While we await the PIOMAS data for June, it is perhaps worth reminding ourselves of the state of play at the end of May.

Day 150 PIOMASv2 anomaly
(calculated from daily volumes - hopefully correctly.)
2012 -8537
2011 -8049
2010 -7314
2009 -4223
2008 -3819
2007 -4783

In mormal circumstances it would be quite crazy that we are expecting June 2012 to repeat 2011 & 2010. Only in those two years has the PIOMAS anomaly taken such a sharp nose-dive in June. 2008/9 showed no such feature & 2007 had a second nose-dive at the end of October (day 302) which proved to be the minimum for the year (just).
But these are far from 'normal circumstances'.
In terms of timing of the annual minimums, it is not without precident to see it in the end of June data as happened in 2010 (day 179). The other mid-year nose-dives turned on day 190 (2011) & 185 (2007).

[AmbiValent]

CT reports another century: area now 6,613 m

[idunno]

...but with the longterm average falling by 133k, today's century break of 117k results in a slight uptick in the anomaly. Looks like we are entering the time of year when, in the early years, the melt was collecting all of the low-hanging fruit.

Around the CT areas...

3 are now irrelevent - St Lawrence, Okotsch and Bering should have no ice, and have none.

Barents also has approx no ice, but it is highly revelent, as it is due to lose, according to the 1979-2008 average, a further 200k of ice before the mimimum. Obviously, it cannot melt ice that does not exist, so Barents will from now on be eroding the anomaly...

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.6.html

The same applies, too, in the Kara and Baffin Seas, and in Hudson Bay. The anomalies in these areas are as great as, or more than the amount of remaining ice...

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.7.html

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.4.html

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.13.html

In other words, it is inevitable that the red (anomaly) lines on the graphs above, which had been heading downwards MUST necessarily start heading upwards soon.

Of the rest of the marginal seas, Beaufort and Laptev show some anomalously early melt, whereas the Canadian Archipelago, East Siberian, Greenland and Chukschi are all somewhere near the long-term average. All of them are due to lose more or less all of their ice, and all are on their way.

Which leaves the big one:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.1.html

...which has so far lost approximately 700k since March/April, and has an anomaly of approx 400k - very nearly as much as the most anomalously melted area, Kara.

But, in a reiteration of a point made repetitively by William Crump, we will not see a record low without a nosedive in the Central Arctic.

[crandles]

Rob, I think Chukchi has more ice than last year because the Bering Sea had more ice than normal this year. Ice at the edge of the pack melts much more quickly than ice inside the pack for a few reasons: a) Wave action, b) heat transport from surface water to just under ice pack. By the time this has travelled any distance, it has cooled down. c) winds traveling over ice will cool down. ...

[Glacierchange.wordpress.com]

Excellent review, I was getting anxious for this level of detail. The melt cycle as evidenced by supraglacial lakes around Jakobshavn is a bit ahead this year, with almost all lakes below 1200 m already having filled and emptied.

[crandles]

Rob, I also meant to mention MYI being closer to Bering Strait this year than last. This may be holding up the melt this year at the moment. Once it is gone, thinner and FYI might disappear a lot faster than MYI did last year. So I can imagine 2012 catching up and overtaking LY melt from BS direction in July.

[Chris Biscan]

The pattern is evolving into one that is highly favorable for the summer of 2012 to take a beating.

The Canadian Archipelago is getting smoked. The albedo's over a huge part of the main ice sheet have plummeted. It;s getting more green up in Alaska a well. The entire region continues to lose negative feedbacks like snow and ice and can't generate cold.

On top of the heat flooding most of the arctic. The pattern is moving into a Dipole. Not off the Russian coast, but from the Pacific to Atlantic side.

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c02.2012184.aqua.1km.jpg

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c02.2012179.aqua.1km.jpg

That region along the Alaskan coast is shallower than the deeper Beaufort. Those SSTs within the first 100-150 miles of the coast are 6-9C and are being blown into the ice. This is moving that thin ice out fast and compacting it towards the Chukchi.

http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/DAILYMAPS/dailymap.basin.60day.jpg

You can see how much ice transport has been taking place.

Another thing to look at, that is about to be a huge force is this:

Data from ITP53 deployed in August 2011

ITP53 was deployed on August 4, 2011 on a 3.80 m thick ice floe in the Beaufort Sea at 77° 34.2 N, 145° 56.4 W as part of the Beaufort Gyre Observing System (BGOS) during the JOIS 2011 cruise on the CCGS Louis S. St. Laurent. The ITP is operating on a typical sampling schedule of 2 one-way profiles between 7 and 760 m depth each day.

http://www.whoi.edu/itp/images/itp53dat3.jpg

Last position on 2012/6/30 230051 UTC : 75.3227° N, 157.2403° W

this way off graph, but none the less a reference has 3-3.5M ice there:

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictnnowcast.gif

We know the ice is thicker there. But not that thick. Regardless, look at the heat under the ice.

That is 150M thick that is about to mix up to the surface as the sun breaks through.

Back in 2004, that was much weaker and barely existed in that region at that level of depth.

big changes since then.

[Chris Biscan]

resolute Canada has set 5 record highs in a row.

Pretty much obliverating the old records.

The EC forecasting has been a joke.

No consideration for Albedo changes.

Anyways:

June 28th: Resolute finished 14.5C this broke the old daily high temp record of 13.5C set in 1996.

June 29th. Resolute finished 12.4C this broke the old daily high temp record of 11.7C set in 1998.

June 30th. Resolute finished 18.2C this broke the old daily high temp record of 13.9C set in 1951.

July 1st. Resolute finished 18.8C this broke the old daily high temp record of 15.0C set in 2011

July 2nd. Resolute finished 20.5C this broke the old daily high temp record of 17.4C set in 2010

[Chris Biscan]

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Anomalies smash old records for June. lol, wtf!

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/png/monthlyanom/nhland06.png

[Neven]

Chris, where do you get the Resolute weather data (and records) from?

[Neven]

If the weather forecast for next week comes about (Dipole Anomaly with fierce high-pressure system of 1030 hPa), I'm almost certain we're going to see massive sea ice reduction. A bit scary, actually.

[Chris Biscan]

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-27_metric_e.html

Yesterday was 20.1C(68.2F) for the high and 10.6C(51.1F)

since June 29th. Resolute has only fallen below 10C for an hour or so.

lol, that is incredible.

the average high is 7C low 1C.

Resolute is on a 5 day record spree.

70F surface temps in Resolute were blown into the ice sheet today.

Much of the Canadian Archipelago ice sheet had to be getting just smoked.

[Neven]

Thanks, Chris. Environment Canada Weather Office: makes sense. I'm compiling a list of weather stations for the ASI Graphs page (preferably with a list of record values like at the Russian Pogoda site).

[Seke Rob]

Chris Biscan, snow is fun... set up plot for selected week, and entered 26, ~4th week in Boreal summer and it looks kind of like when subtracting Greenland [which has very odd residuals in '68 and '70.], there's kind of little left... from 7 million km square average in the late sixties [excl.greenland] to now 0.5 million. Mid August will be truest albedo low.

http://i137.photobucket.com/albums/q210/Sekerob/Climate/Snow_Cover_Season_NH_Wk26.png

Bet you, it's all that excess heat of UHI's that is causing this ... the planet is fine with troppo scorchio :(

[Seke Rob]

P.S. Do not trust the 68-70 Greenland data, or for that matter N.A. without Greenland, lest there really was much reduced snow those years for the island.

[Chris Biscan]

EC is forecasting a high of 17C at Resolute today. The record is 17.1C.

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=np&TYPE=TEXT%3ALIST&YEAR=2012&MONTH=07&FROM=0300&TO=0300&STNM=71924

That sounding for Resolute shows how warm the bottom layer is. If the sun actually set with that sounding it would probably cool off pretty quickly. But it doesn't so it only cools slowly and only at the near surface layer.

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r04c02.2012184.terra.367.250m

The sat image show we have sunny skies which equal lots of solar radiation. Unfortunately the solar angle here kinda blows. But it is consistent for 12 hours and can methodically warm the region under those kind of sunny skies.

Models say sun and 7-9C 850s today. That likely means 20C again even with north Wind.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-27_metric_e.html

Resolute rose a degree in the last hour and the solar chart says the sun angle is increasing and is currently at 13-14 degrees and almost reaches 40.

We will see. But it looks very warm in the entire region.

[Espen Olsen]

Nares Strait.

The Nares express just taking of:

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl1_143.A2012185003000-2012185003500.250m.jpg

[Chris Biscan]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html

Last nights Euro would be in the Category of Epically bad for the Sea Ice.

[Neven]

The Nares express just taking of:

All aboard!

I will turn these gorgeous images into an animation at the end of the week.

[Apocalypse4Real]

In regard to sea ice melt and GHG's,

Barrow has recorded an anomaly of approx 70 ppbv in the last part of June.

The annual-monthly pattern looked "normal" at around 1865 ppbv in mid-June. The next three CH4 readings have been between 1935-1940.

Whether this is due to melt and algae bloom, methane release from permafrost, or other sources, or just bad data - time will tell.

[Lord Soth]

A little off topic, but we now have melt ponds forming, at the North Pole Web Cam Site:

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2012/9.jpg

Up till now the webcam pictures have been pretty boring. It' appears that they placed the webcam in an area of deep wind swept snow. So up till now, the cam pictures had very little contrast. This is quickly going to change.

[Werther]

Hi Neven,

Chris links weatheroffice Canada. I get nice lists through this:
http://www.wetteronline.de/namkstdf.htm
You can change through Canada (Nunavut, Nordwestgebiete), Alaska, but also through the 'Russische Federation' in Asien. You get to Greenland through 'Europa-Nord' and Svalbard through 'Norwegen'.

[Werther]

Lord Soth,
Was that you messing in front of cam1? Left your footprints...

[FrankD]

Neven,

The Environment Canada site is great, but you need to take a little time to wander around it to get full value. Stations have differing quality / detail behind them, but the good stations are a real treat.

For Resolute, for example, in the Historical Data section, open the +:
Record Values has some nice info about daily records for "today" but
Historical Weather is the good stuff (for mine). It opens a summary for the month, and when you open the 1971-2000 "Climate Normals" link you connect to a large amount of data - monthly records and some excellent statistical info. (There are other ways to link to that info, but I find that path the easiest on a station-by-station ramble through the Arctic).

Some other stations in the Arctic have similar, but many do not - you just have to explore a bit to see what you can find.

[Artful Dodger]

Frank & Neven,

Resolute Wx history for June 2012:

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?StationID=1776&Month=6&Day=2&Year=2012&timeframe=2

Notice that you can also download CSV data files:

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/bulkdata_e.html?StationID=1776&Month=6&Day=2&Year=2012&timeframe=2&format=csv

[Seke Rob]

MASIE again skipped a day to go from day 182 to day 184. Days combined logged a 164K extent reduction. Bering/Okhotsk total, latter finally dropping 11K to 16K left, is now 34K... considered to be gonned at any time.

JAXA had it's century [-122K] and may by the skinny also record a final for the subsequent day, July 3. 99K pre-final change is too close to tell. Last year saw the 9 to 8M step disappear in 8 days. All die Hohen und Tiefen im Wetter don't bode well for the rotten/soggy ice.

CT dropped 77K actual, anomaly -1.85M km square for day 182. 6.5M area is left.

[Seke Rob]

NSIDC monthly not out yet [any day], the last 5 years show this [extent, area, which excl. the 0.31M km square assumed to be 100% filled blind spot]

2007 6 Goddard N 11.49 8.15
2008 6 Goddard N 11.36 8.52
2009 6 Goddard N 11.46 8.92
2010 6 Goddard N 10.82 8.02
2011 6 NRTSI-G N 11.01 8.14

Will be Slaughter at 10th Avenue (Mick Ronson) when 2012 data is released.

[Neven]

Werther, FrankD and Lodger, thanks for the info.

With all these people keeping an eye on temps (I don't really) it'd be cool to have some kind of widget showing the latest daily records that get broken all around on the Arctic. Ah, if only I knew how to program such a thing...

But I'm going to do something on the Webcams page. Probably just a list with links to weather stations that also have historical data to compare.

[Espen Olsen]

A nice piece of Art at the harbor front at Kimmirut, I did not know they were spending money on such things up there?
http://www.kimmirutweather.com/

[AmbiValent]

I should have waited a few days, now it would fit in so much better... nice piece of Art indeed.

[DrTskoul]

Good work Neven. Lot's of good information.

MASIE Day 184 Update - Regional Extent since Day 82

[Account Deleted]

NSDIC confirm data Cryosphere Today about record low area in June!
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Jun/N_06_area.txt

[Seke Rob]

June area record for NSIDC, but *not* extent record, that remains with 2010 at 10.83 v 2012 at 10.97. There is a new concentration low for June at 73.11% v the previous of 73.57% set in June 2007.

http://i137.photobucket.com/albums/q210/Sekerob/Climate/ArcticSIASIEJune.png

http://i137.photobucket.com/albums/q210/Sekerob/Climate/ArcticSIA-SIERatio2.png

[Seke Rob]

And so from a prelim-prelim change of 99K at IJIS/JAXA, the final extent change for day 184 was -122K. The new prelim change of -122K hints at 3rd sequential day century.

http://bit.ly/JAXDSM
http://bit.ly/JAXEXA

Notably, the YTD average for 2012 has now gone from 7 to 6 in ranking.

[Climate Changes]

@ Neven

http://coolwx.com/record/globemovie.week.php

[Neven]

Yep, it's hot over here. So hot that there were serious thunderstorms last night, which took out my internet connection (right now I'm sitting on the town square that has free WLAN). So if you don't see me for a couple of days, you'll know why.

BTW, ironic that that coolwx site is run by Ryan Maue. Isn't he part of the WUWT team?

[Seke Rob]

Maue runs the hurricane analysis site http://policlimate.com/tropical/index.html ... and falls in my book in the [let's not admit I'm really having a conflict what I want to believe and my data] department.

[Account Deleted]

СT -233k

[L. Hamilton]

So CT area remains well below other years on this date:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/sea_ice_N_this_date.png

DMI extent has not dropped much the past few days, but is still about 100k below the second-lowest, 2011:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/sea_ice_DMI_this_date.png

[Werther]

6.313807 km2 area
600K under last year for the date.
When I look at ECMWF SLP/wind 850 mb I start wondering where this is going. Beginning today weather is in for the arctic dipole. It lingers on until mid July. The max is modelled for Monday 9 July, featuring a strong windfield centered near the pole. It’ll push from the Pacific region right into Fram Strait.
Someone ( Idunno?) expressed the imprseeion that the pack is already being pushed to the Atlantic side. Rob Dekker also mentioned compression at work. On MODIS I think it is clear that the gap between the icerim and Svalbard is diminishing. Especially on the Fram side.
If this will pass, MODIS could show an entirely different sight mid July. Chukchi and ESAS ice left as pockets, a broad almost cleared zone from the Beaufort to the Laptev?

[Seke Rob]

My abacus going by the name Office 2010, makes it rounded -222... what's in a number, and still shicking :|

365 rolling and current in 2 charts, with some new discovered [dynamic labeling tricks added]

http://bit.ly/CTAR02
http://bit.ly/CTARCA

Well outside 2 StdDev for the Arctic.

[L. Hamilton]

And here's the DMI "average" graph Rob requested a while back:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/sea_ice_DMI_this_date2.png

[Chris Biscan]

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/03/seat-ice-news-volume-3-number-7-the-next-arcus-sea-ice-outlook-forecasting-poll-for-2012-is-online/#more-66691

I am sorry if this is inappropriate but I can't help it. So many of these comments are ignorantly uninformed:

Just read, I won't post the comments here, but wow.

[Seke Rob]

Chris, when I put links in to places ass *that* one, I put rel="nofollow" in the html code. Here's an example: Watts' cesspit . In Firefox, select the Watt's cesspit and rightclick, then view selection source, which details out the code used. Think Neven one time expressed he did not like Watts & co tracking when traffic redirects came from hit blog.

Here's a good help page how to use html in forum/blog posts: http://www.w3schools.com/tags/tag_p.asp

That all said, maybe Neven already automated this? If it's ultra stupid stats related, you're sure to find a topic over at Tamino's. That's as far as what I'm reading... not following links to there.

-- Rob

[Neven]

Chris, I mostly skim (after 4-5 words it's clear what kind of a person is writing) the comment threads below posts on Arctic sea ice on WUWT. Most of the commenters are uninformed, and Watts likes to keep it that way. But sometimes it does inspire me, or gives me an insight.

If it becomes too much, here's an antidote in the form of an excellent piece by Tamino: Denier Denier Denier...

I'm going to try and adopt his 'fake skeptic' from now on. It describes what they are best and the victim bullies cannot make use of it by acting all insulted over it.

[Neven]

Oh, and BTW, my Internet connection has been resurrected. Will try to write the Chukchi post tonight.

[Neven]

With my revived Internet connection I now have the opportunity to look at the LANCE-MODIS satellite images. Nares is breaking up at record speed, the NWP is breaking up from the inside, but can someone please tell me this: When are the holes in the Central Arctic, just north of the Chukchi Sea, getting compacted again? We don't want any patches of open water there with the Sun beating down.

[Seke Rob]

"We don't want any ...". more reference needed... genuflect to those upper beings [you know them now], bare knee on the cocos-mat, for appropriate punishment and you may get heard ;>)

http://bit.ly/NSAR06

Just 26.9% was considered not covered by water in June 2012 within extent, per NSIDC. Don't know if the CAPIE monthly bested that.

[Seke Rob]

JAXA slowed... no century, and prelim-prelim only has a 47K change for the 5th, so no 100K day in the cards. Whilst, DMI by eyeball took another plunch, whilst MASIE is slow to report their daily numbers.

http://bit.ly/MASDMI

Watching a dance macabre as we can only sit on hands whilst the decision makers are astute at illegalizing SLR is happening [costs money too]

[maltose]

CT out, down ~100k to 6.21 km^2!

[Seke Rob]

With that -100K, the anomaly did hardly move for the Arctic

http://bit.ly/CTAR02

And the globe has resumed it's path of what was seen in 2007 and 2011.

http://bit.ly/CTGB01

The combined NH/SH path followed from mid April to Mid June has seen no equal that I can discern... quasi sideways to > 2 Std.Dev. Did someone reconfigure the Milankovich cycle?

[Apocalypse4Real]

The NH Polar View ERSL/NCEP/NCAR Surface temp anamoly for July 3 portrays the temp variances over the Arctic quite starkly.

Link

[Shortened the link, N.]

[Apocalypse4Real]

According to the 4 July NCOF/Godiva data - the sea ice has opened above Barrow. The ice concentration is below 20 percent all the way to the NWP.

[Neven]

I had some contact with someone from the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, a couple of days ago and he told me that break-up occurred on June 29. This would have been the earliest since 2004, which was a year when the landfast ice was poorly grounded and broke-up earlier due to wind and ocean currents. They hope to have another break-up forecast next year.

[Neven]

Diablobanquisa has a post up discussing the June 2012 SIE, with SLP composite images for the first and last two weeks of the month (nosedive and slowdown).

Extensión media mensual de la banquisa ártica en junio 2012

[Seke Rob]

That peaked my interest and hopped over to the NSIDC to find that their June report was in with some interesting ice images, and this snippet:

A note on the daily sea ice data NSIDC has published the underlying data used for the Daily Sea Ice Extent image and the Daily Sea Ice Extent 5-Month Time Series graph. Please see the links below for documentation for the Sea Ice Index and links to the data:

Daily time series extent data... yummy. http://nsidc.org/data/docs/noaa/g02135_seaice_index/index.html#daily_data_files

[Seke Rob]

P.S. Have to play with this but see 2 files that combined have daily data from 1978 to July 4, 2012

[Artful Dodger]

Seke Rob wrote:

prelim only has a 47K change for the 5th

Courage, Willow! The July 5 data ain't all in yet... (esp. Hudson Bay ;^)

So a good chuck of that prelim number is from yesterday's data. When in doubt, check this page to see which data is current:

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e

Cheers,
Lodger

[Rob Dekker]

NSIDC June report is out :
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

A few highlights :
As somebody here at ASI had already mentioned last week, NSIDC confirms that 2012 incurred the largest June ice loss in the satellite record.

Also, you may remember that real-time ice-thickness measurements at Barrow were taken off-line in February (apparently a Polar bear ate the transponder),
and the thickness info would become available later this year.
Now it seems that Chris Polashenski of CRREL at least has a brief report about what happened with the ice at Barrow during June, and since many of us wondered if the harsh winter makes the ice off Alaska resist melting this summer, you simply have to read that section !

[Rob Dekker]

Also, an record low snow anomaly is presented for June 2012 :
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2012/07/Figure5a.png
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2012/07/Figure5b.png

6 million km^2 less snow-covered land than the long-term average.

These last graphs made me wonder how much more heat was accumulated over June just because of that snow anomaly. Here goes :

From our discussion a few weeks ago, we know that around the Arctic perimiter, insolation during June is on average something like 280 W/m^2 (remember the 'close to Sahara' discussion).

If you count that albedo changes from something like 0.8 to 0.1 when snow melts, that means that on average, the now snow-free land absorbed 200 W/m^2 heat MORE than what it would do on average.

Over 6 million km^2, that means the Arctic absorbed a whopping 1180 TW (yes, that is Tera Watt) extra solar power.
Know that global energy use (all fossil fuels and the rest) combined is some 17 TW.
And to keep the Barents sea open ocean during winter requires 70 TW (see Neven's reference blog on ocean heat flux).
Ouch.

1180 TW over the entire month of June is 3 * 10^21 Joule. This is enough heat to melt some 9300 Gton ice (1/3 of total winter Arctic sea ice volume), and the equivalent of 6 M km^2 of FYI (1.5meter).

Since the wind blows both on and off the ice, roughly half that increased heat may go to melting the ice (and the other half warms (cools less) the NH), then just this June snow anomaly would explain a drop of some 3 million km^2 ice area w.r.t. the long-term average. Which kind of sounds about what we are observing.

[crandles]

>"P.S. Have to play with this but see 2 files that combined have daily data from 1978 to July 4, 2012"

FWIW, I still find Cryosphere today area numbers better than these new extent numbers for predicting the minimum extent.

[Wipneus]

I have updated my graphics at ArctischePinguin for PIOMAS July data:

Monthly data:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/piomas-trnd2.png

Daily data:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/piomas-trnd4.png

Daily data with a "prediction" based on exponential trend:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/piomas-trnd4-1.png

This month an extra graph that to shows the "exponential predictions" based on
the limited data that was available in the previous years:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/piomas-trnd6-1.png

(if you prefer Gompertz curves, those are there as well)

[Neven]

Thanks, Wipneus. I've also updated the PICT numbers. Post is up: PIOMAS July 2012.

[Neven]

Rob and others, my posting tempo is currently too high (start to feel a bit like Steven Goddard), so I'm holding that Chukchi post until this weekend. Which isn't hard as I still have to write it. ;-)

[Neven]

So 4-5 more days of Dipole-ish weather and that's it? This year starts to look like 2010.

[L. Hamilton]

I haven't updated the cycle plot in a while. This is through June, NSIDC area and extent:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/2012_Cycle_Arctic.png

[Seke Rob]

Courage, Willow! The July 5 data ain't all in yet... (esp. Hudson Bay ;^)

We look at different input streams and close enough the same comes out. From Prelim-Prelim of -47K, the final was -62.5K. It's the *wind* in the willow. :D

Probably already posted, while typing. Atmos/CT updated:

2012.5042 -1.9153515 6.2164788 8.1318302
2012.5068 -1.8358341 6.1921525 8.0279865

-24K or so.

[Account Deleted]

Information about the thickness of ice in the Russian Arctic.
http://meteoinfo.ru/news/1-2009-10-01-09-03-06/5400-05072012-2012-

[Seke Rob]

Aha, TUVM AIL80. My universal translator picked out the bit below... NSIDC/MASIE is not recording mirages, glistering or glistening:

In the Okhotsk Sea, to the middle of June, drift ice was observed in the Shantar islands in the Okhotsk and Tauiskaya lip. At the end of the second decade of June in the drift ice Tauiskaya lip disappeared and remained only in the Shantar islands. Sea ice extent, therefore, is not more than 5%. Purification of sea ice in the North Sea was observed at 20-25 days later than the norm in some places - for 35-40 days later than normal. Ice conditions at the end of June - some heavier than normal.

[Account Deleted]

Seke Rob, there are many interesting facts. For example, the area of ice in June, the lowest in more than 100 years of observations.

[Account Deleted]

in the Barents Sea

[Daniel Bailey]

My Cyrillic being rustier than a 30-year old nail lying under a gutter downspout, I enlisted Google translate:

In the Barents Sea ice extent has been common for 30-35% less than normal ice in the southeastern part of the Barents Sea - to 15-17% less than the average of many years, sea ice cover in June 2012 was the lowest in more than 100-year series of observations. In the area of ​​the Pechora Sea and the mouth Haypudyrskoy cleared the ice early in the first week of June, which is 20-30 days, sometimes (in the art. White Nose) for 40-42 days before normal.

In the Kara Sea ice conditions in June 2012 were much easier to rule. By the end of June, the south-western part of the sea is almost entirely free of ice. Purification of ice south-western part of the sea occurred at 20-40 days before the norm in places (in the area of the island Vaigach) for 45 days before the norm. The thickness of fast ice in the first ten days of June were in the 60-70 cm and 80-90 cm in some places less than normal. At the end of the third decade of June from Novaya Zemlya straits to the New Port and Dudinka possible bezledokolnoe [ice-free?] swimming.

In the Laptev Sea landfast ice thickness in the west was 40-50 cm below the norm. At st. GM to them. Fedorov (District Strait Vilkitski) ice thickness was 90-95 cm below the norm in the open part of the strait - a drifting ice, which is very rare at this time. In the East Sea near the islands Lyakhovsky thickness of fast ice at 10 cm in the Bay of Tiksi - 40-50 cm below the norm. Ice conditions have been easier to rule.

In the East Siberian Sea landfast ice thickness was above normal by 20-40 cm in the art. Aion - about the norm. The destruction of fast ice in the west of the sea and in Chaun Bay occurred at 5 days before the norm. In general, the ice conditions were a bit heavier than normal.

In the Chukchi Sea ice thickness was about the norm in some places in the west of the sea - at 10-20 cm above the norm. To the east of the sea, near st. Whalen, a cleansing of the sea ice began in the 15 days before the norm. Ice conditions in the West Sea - heavier than the norm, in the east-lighter.

In the Bering Sea ice cover at the end of June was slightly higher than normal (5%). Drift ice was observed in the form of separate spots in the East Sea, more solid ice (8-10) - in the Gulf of Anadyr on the south and north Karaginskiy Bay Lake Bay. Breaking the fast ice in the Gulf of Anadyr and the Gulf of Cross came in time close to normal, the thickness of fast ice in the first week of June in the Gulf of Cross was at 10 cm below the norm.

In the Okhotsk Sea, to the middle of June, drift ice was observed in the Shantar islands in the Okhotsk and Tauiskaya lip. At the end of the second decade of June in the drift ice Tauiskaya lip disappeared and remained only in the Shantar islands. Sea ice extent, therefore, is not more than 5%. Purification of sea ice in the North Sea was observed at 20-25 days later than the norm in some places - for 35-40 days later than normal. Ice conditions at the end of June - some heavier than normal.

Translator gaffe's aside, an interesting bit-o-news.

[Daniel Bailey]

I took "decade" to mean "week". Google apparently abdicated the crown of omnisciency when translating Russian:English.

[Account Deleted]

bezledokolnoe [ice-free?] = without icebreaker

[Account Deleted]

"decade" it's 10 days of the month. 1-9 - the first decade, 10-19 - the second decade, 20-31 the third decade.

[Artful Dodger]

Seke Rob, congrats!

You've found the secret feedback: Arctic Willow.

[idunno]

Hi all,

If anybody's clinging on to a shred of optimism, and wants to dispose of it quickly, I recommend a visit to...

http://arctic-news.blogspot.co.uk/

Several interesting articles. All depressing.

[Steve C]

To idunno et al:

The first item there, the letter from "Arctic Methane Emergency Group" - AMEG, alarmed me more than the writers probably intended.

They focus on the risk that arctic warming could release ever-increasing amounts of methane in a positive-feedback mechanism. Most readers here are probably familiar with the concern.

Part of the controversy seems to be around the question of what proportion of seabed methane that may be released reaches the atmosphere (to then contribute as a greenhouse gas to more warming) versus oxidation in the water before reaching the surface. As if methane oxidation in the water were preferable !!!!

Methane oxidation releases heat, we see this every time we turn on a gas stove. Having the chemical reaction happen while the gases are dissolved in water does not reduce the amount of heat released by oxidation.

I can't begin to estimate how much arctic ocean water heating could happen from methane hydrate release at depth with oxidation in solution, but I suspect it could be significant.

Possibly even worse for the globe could be the effect of converting dissolved oxygen to carbon dioxide in this process.

Oxygen is only found in the deep ocean waters because of mixing of oxygen-rich cold water near the poles. If water near the poles were to become severely depleted of oxygen, the deep waters of the oceans would become anaerobic. Anaerobic conditions across the depths of the world's oceans could then turn the oceans into toxic solutions of hydrogen sulfide, as may have existed at the time of the Permian Extinction.

It strikes me as plausible that significant arctic ocean warming could unleash such a process over a matter of decades.

I fear AMEG may UNDERESTIMATE the global risk from methane release in the Arctic.

Steve C

[Kevin McKinney]

Steve, I'm pretty sure your concern about the heat released directly by the oxidation of methane in water is unfounded.

I haven't done the math, but I seem to recall that the greenhouse forcing of fossil fuel-derived GHGs is MUCH greater than the heat released by the combustion--like orders of magnitude. The same would be true of the methane under consideration.

So, the methane situation is bad, but most likely not as bad as AMEG paints it. More detail (or outright corrections) from the better-informed (and more mathematically adept) gratefully accepted...

[Al Rodger]

Regarding oxidation of methane in oceans, a lot of it is anerobic oxidation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anaerobic_oxidation_of_methane
I've no idea if this process is more or less exothermal than the methane burning on our stoves. The bugs munching on all than lovely hydrogen sulphide also have to add to the energy release.

Comparing the heating from burning fossil fuels with the resulting GHG effect from its exhaust, taking 45% of the GHG is absorbed by oceans/biosphere, the GHG takes about 9 months to equal the the burning of methane, 18 months for coal. Human primary energy use from FF is about 2% of the CO2 GHG effect.

[Kevin McKinney]

Thanks, Al.

[Kalle GZ]

A little off topic here, but I have something that I wanted to share with you all for a while. One night, I had a very... odd dream. It was the year 2016, and I, along with many other people, were on a big chunk of ice. I learned that we were on the last ice spot that was easily visible on the ice maps, and, with the sun coming down, we were seeing whenever or not the chunk of ice will melt or not and if the Arctic will go ice-free this year.

And eventually the chunk of ice did melt when huge waves crashed into it, and we were all riding on surf boards to get back to land. (THAT part was probably my dreams being all odd haha)

Yes, the post was off-topic, but I wanted to share it with you all and who knows, maybe my dream could be telling the truth, maybe the Arctic could go ice-free in 2016.

[Al Rodger]

Opps. I betray my prejudice against dirty-old coal in my post above.
I put coal & methane round the wrong way. I should have said 18 months for methane & 9 months for coal (with petrol in between).

[Neven]

Cool dream, Kalle!

whether this second nosedive of the melting season will be just a nosedive, or the mother of all nosedives

Looks like I'm getting my answer: a short-lived baby nosedive.

[Steve C]

Al Rodger wrote:
"Regarding oxidation of methane in oceans, a lot of it is anerobic oxidation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anaerobic_oxidation_of_methane
I've no idea if this process is more or less exothermal than the methane burning on our stoves. The bugs munching on all than lovely hydrogen sulphide also have to add to the energy release."

I suspect you're right that oxidation of methane that might bubble up from arctic seabed sediments won't directly warm the water column much. But on this point, I'm confident that the energy produced in first reducing sulfate to hydrogen sulfide by bacteria wouldn't affect the amount of warming much, when the energy of oxidizing all that HS to sulfate again is considered.

But this is no consolation in the overall picture. Hydrogen sulfide is highly toxic--the global ecosystem is not improved by production of hydrogen sulfide in quantity instead of CO2 or instead of releasing methane to the atmosphere. Especially so if the picture includes the consumption of oxygen in the water column.

I've had a pretty good science education but it didn't include physical chemistry. I know that O2 has a solubility in water at 0 degrees of 0.07 grams per kg water. If an arctic water column at this temp and oxygen content has its oxygen consumed by methane bubbling up through it, how much does the temp of each kg of water go up if the 0.07 g of oxygen is consumed by methane?

[Artful Dodger]

Oh, bad luck. Your crabeater days are sealed...

[fredt34]

I'm quite surprised and worried about this big hole in NE Greenland, I tried to find it on old images but couldn't. Are we going to see all the ice on the East coast disappear?? Who has checked the satellite images?

[Christoffer Ladstein]

The current situation is more or like as same time 2010, so unless the export through Fram come to a complete halt, I wouldn't be to much worried....yet!

[Bob Wallace]

With the current high temperatures and low ice concentration in the Northwest Passage might we see it open before the Eastern Passage?

[AmbiValent]

The Northwest Passage is indeed melting, but most of the remaining ice is still in place, reflecting sunlight back into space. I think melting will only speed up when the ice finally breaks and is carried out, opening more and more water to the sunlight.

[crandles]

Average decline over 30 days is now over 120k per day. This is a record beating 1991's 116k per day. (OK I am only 3 days late in reporting when the record was beaten, but the average was likely to go up.)

[Werther]

Some observations day 189…
On the British Parliamentary investigation…. I don’t see much difference in the offincial statements from the MetOffice and FI Dutch KNMI. They all do nice scientific work. But they are very, very diplomatic. That’s what politicians want. It gives them room for their powerplay. They’ll act when it is in their specific interest. General threats are too elusive.
On Nares Strait…. Yes, I think it opens up through a sort of in situ melt. The current runs under the arches on the north and south side, eddying up enough to break and help to melt. More or less the same near Resolute on the NWP
On Jakobshavn Isbrae… I did see prelim maps last week based on april ’12 icebridge data showing a lot more surface lowering than at Swiss Camp (even 20 m over a part of the glacier), but I can’t find them for reference (didn’t bookmark…). For some idea: lowering was measured over an area comparable to FI Connecticut or Northern Ireland.
On Neven’s baby nosedive… small extent and area steps hide the continuing volume loss. That 2012 proceedings start to look like last years’ is hardly a relief. Last year was the worst in the line.
On El Nino… As Wayne Davidson argues, it’s effects can create some cloud protection and stimulate low SLP over the ARCTIC. OTOH it can also evoke more warmth and humidity.
On modern science… Specific research will continue even as the object of study is generally disappearing. It will bring us neither truth nor value, just practical insight for limited application.
On consequences… Whatever minimum is reached in the Arctic, it´ll have ever larger impact on NH autumn and winter. Amplifying the extremes has started since GHG levels crossed an imaginary stage in the biosphere maze (I think around 1992) and the ‘rubber band-effect’ is not going to cover up much longer. The built-in lag is now large enough to realise an ice-free Arctic even during winter (as Lodger has often illustrated).

[idunno]

Hi all,

Following article begins by stating the bleedin' obvious, then gets very interesting:

http://www.springerlink.com/content/c4m01048200k08w3/

See, for example, figures 5, 6, 7 and 10.

And I understood some of it!!!

(I think)

[Seke Rob]

IJIS/JAXA recorded only a +25K upward adjustment to prelim, to end in a century and posted a prelim-prelim change of -157K, smelling of another century in the cards.

7th 8507813 final
8th 8400938 final

2012 on rank 2, noselengthed by 2011.

[Neven]

The fast ice in Lancaster Sound is about to go kaputt.

[Werther]

BTW I liked this Obuoy 4 webcam image made today. It illustrates our discussions on insolation; it's a bloody lot of Joules coming in!