During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) and Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2011 period (NSIDC has a good explanation of sea ice extent and area in their FAQ). I also look at other things like regional sea ice area, compactness, temperature and weather forecasts, anything that can be of particular interest.
Check out the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website for
daily updated graphs, maps and live webcam images.
July 1st 2012
The ASI update from two weeks ago ended with a couple of questions:
Will the conditions that were so conducive to melting have an inertia-like effect on the SIE and SIA numbers? And what is that big low going to do? Will it tear up the ice pack so we get to see the holes we did in the 2010 melting season? And how about those highs over the Siberian coast during Summer Solstice?
As expected the speedy decrease slowed down considerably, but enough was going on all around the Arctic for the 2012 SIE and SIA trend lines to stay close to the bottom years. That big low-pressure system definitely left a mark all over the Arctic, see for instance the holes in the ice pack on this satellite image for June 26th. It is very reminiscent of 2010, but earlier this time around. And those highs over the Siberian coast? I think they had something to do with SST anomaly charts needing extra colours.
On the day the last ASI update came out, LiveScience had an article about this year's potential new record, with a couple of quotes from the NSIDC's Dr Walt Meier (also known as Saint Walt because of his missionary work in certain corners of the blogosphere):
The tilt of the Earth's axis means the sun does not set above the Arctic Circle on the summer solstice, with summer days growing longer even farther north. As a result, the more dark water exposed to sunlight around this time, the more heat it can soak up.
"In a way it is almost like building up a bank account of heat," Meier said.
Everything is pointing towards a lot of savings in this respect, and interest will probably be high too. But 2012 also has a little piggy bank of melting potential that the other years with low SIE and SIA did not have. While melting very rapidly on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, 2012 decrease is still relatively slow in easy ice places like Hudson Bay and the Greenland Sea. If the weather allows 2012 to break that little piggy bank we will witness another radical nosedive.
All of this and more in ASI update 6.
Sea Ice Extent (SIE)
The trend lines on most SIE and SIA graphs are already pointing downwards and have 2012 in first spot (yes, even fake skeptic darling Arctic-ROOS), but again, IJIS is more conservative:
The fast decline in the first two weeks of the month leveled off somewhat, but 2012 has nevertheless just dipped below 2011, and is now in second place behind 2010.
The current difference between 2012 and other years (without the unrealistic last data point that gets revised upwards) is as follows:
- 2005: -496K (-57,531)
- 2006: -169K (-59,609)
- 2007: -288K (-63,328)
- 2008: -578K (-58,500)
- 2009: -667K (-55,938)
- 2010: +282K (-74,120)
- 2011: -3K (-66,010)
Between brackets is the average daily SIE decrease for the month of June. 2012's average daily SIE decrease for June turned out -76,771 km2 per day, which is the highest average daily decrease for June in the 2005-2012 period.
Sea Ice Area (SIA)
After the recent spectacular decline on the Cryosphere Today SIA graph, the 2012 trend line stayed relatively low, but was joined by big melter 2010:
As 2012 keeps producing century breaks it has dipped below 2010 again. One interesting thing to keep an eye on is the CT SIA anomaly graph because we're getting awfully close to the minus 2 million square km anomaly mark, which would be really early for the time of the year:The current difference between 2012 and the other years is as follows:
- 2005: -1,025K (-93,233)
- 2006: -730K (-88,414)
- 2007: -540K (-101,301)
- 2008: -822K (-86,647)
- 2009: -1,340K (-86,332)
- 2010: -43K (-105,310)
- 2011: -373K (-101,230)
Between brackets is the average daily area decrease for the month of June. With one more day to go, 2012's average daily area decrease for June is currently -110,729 square km per day. I think it's safe to say that this will be the highest daily average decrease for June. Can you imagine how high it would've been if the weather wouldn't have switched?
Cryosphere Today area per IJIS extent (CAPIE)
Our CAPIE or compactness ratio went up a bit again, but with CT SIA going down again faster than IJIS SIE in the past couple of days, the ratio is hovering in the record zone again:
Where the main reason for the relatively low CAPIE we saw in the last ASI update was melt ponding, this time around I think a role is also played by those holes that were blown into the ice pack by cyclonic winds. But the Sun is still beating down on the ice and ocean big time, let there be no doubt about it. So lots of melt ponds, but lots of absorbed solar energy in those melt ponds as well.
Regional SIE and SIA
Regional graph of the week:
Baffin Bay SIA is low for this time of the year. Not only because the ice is disappearing fast, but also because there is no ice transport from the straits and channels in the Canadian Archipelago. The Northwest Passage has started to break up at the western entrance, but in Lancaster Sound, the eastern entrance, an ice arch is still holding up (see blog post). The ice arch in at the southern end of Nares Strait has just started to disintegrate, and it will take a week or two for ice transport to get going from the Arctic Basin towards Baffin Bay (see blog post). However, it increasingly looks like the bay will be a death trap for that ice as waters seem to have warmed up significantly in the last three weeks, due to insolation and high air temperatures. I discussed the effects of that for the adjacent southwest coast of Greenland in a blog post that was posted earlier today: The dark side of Greenland. With no sea ice as a buffer temperatures might shoot up even more.
This corner of the Arctic looks particularly bad this year. In a couple of days I will write a blog post comparing the region in 2012 with other years. If you can't wait, you can compare concentration maps yourself on the ASI Graphs page.
Sea Level Pressure
As usual I start with an animation of SLP images from the Danish Meteorological Institute to see what has happened in the past two weeks:
So what the ECMWF model forecasted, came about: a low moved over the Beaufort Sea, increasing cloudiness and bringing the Beaufort Gyre to a grinding halt. This was the main reason that SIE and SIA decrease slowed down. But as we can see, the blue cyclone has disappeared and some yellow has started to reappear. This is already getting reflected in the numbers, with decrease on the increase again, which just goes to show how poised the Arctic still is for rapid decline.
But what does the ECMWF weather forecast have in store for the coming 6 days? Here's the panel:
There's no two ways about it: a big high is taking over. This will almost certainly lead to a rapid decline, as high pressure systems bring clear skies and thus a lot of solar energy will reach the ice and water. 2012 would be taking an even more vertical nosedive on graphs than it did in the first two weeks of this month, if it weren't for that high being so big and spread out. The lack of isobars and strong lows over the Laptev Sea, signals to me that the Beaufort Gyre won't be turning very fast, and so I'm suspecting we won't be seeing an above average transport of ice out of Fram Strait. In other words, no strong Arctic Dipole Anomaly.
Temperatures
Air temperatures are relatively high in important places like the Siberian Seas and the Canadian Archipelago...
...but all in all air temps aren't anything out of the ordinary, with no orange or yellow at northern latitudes. The DMI mean temperature above 80N graph agrees:
On the other hand, I can't remember ever seeing a DMI SST anomaly map like this one:
The colours can jump from one day to the next, but it has been progressing towards this more and more. And it only makes sense, as we knew those highs over the Barentsz and Kara Seas would let a lot of sunshine through to be absorbed by the dark waters below. In the past there used to be ice here to reflect that solar energy back into space. Not any longer.
The only positive thing I see on this SST anomaly map is the purple, blue and green colours in the Bering Sea and Strait. This just might be the one thing (after weather patterns of course) that can keep this year from smashing all the records. But more on that in a separate blog post later this week.
Update conclusion
Arctic sea ice decrease had a small hiccup that lasted about 10 days, but 2012 remained close to the other big melt years 2010 and 2011, and now it looks like the weather will give it another turbo boost. Right around the start of July, one of the most important months in the melting season (especially for extent). Clear skies will do destruction, but the winds will determine whether this second nosedive of the melting season will be just a nosedive, or the mother of all nosedives.
There's still enough easy ice potential in Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay, the Greenland and East Siberian Seas for 2012 to take a very big headstart and start nibbling at thicker ice at the edges of the Central Arctic much earlier than other years. Of course, there's no use in looking too far ahead, as weather patterns can completely switch in just a few days. But not the coming week. Look for 2012 to go low again in the 7-10 days to come.
PS the first oil tankers have left port to take advantage of an early opening of the Northern Sea Route.
That Joulee image likely needs some adjustment. It's probably underexposed. The surface is most likely a lot brighter than what is shown.
Posted by: Bob Wallace | July 09, 2012 at 23:39
More on Joules and Watts :
I've been keeping an eye of the Mass Balance Buoys from CRREL.
http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/newdata.htm
Unfortunately, CRREL seems to update the mass balance (ice thickness) data of their buoys only on a monthly or bi-monthly basis, which is eternity during the melting season.
Still, I found this very interesting graph from buoy 2011, which is situated in the Canadian Archipelago.
Little ocean heat influx current going on there, so most melting comes from the top.
Here you see that snow melt started in beginning of June, but with the high albedo of the still fresh snow it took a while (almost 3 weeks) for the snow to melt out.
When that happened, albedo changed quickly (didn't we see that reflected in the Modis pictures and the regional "ice area" a few weeks ago?) and since then, ice melt started to progress very rapidly.
The graph indicates a top-melt of 4 cm/day, which suggests that a whopping 153 W/m^2 is currently absorbed to melt the ice.
With clear skies dominating the Archipelago close to 300 W/m^2 insolation could be expected on the ice in June. With an albedo of about 0.5, this suggests that local albedo (of the ice itself) is the main cause of top-melt in the Archipelago right now.
Interesting huh ?
Posted by: Rob Dekker | July 10, 2012 at 02:00
It is Rob, but it's a shame that many of the buoys are showing.
Top &/or Bottoms Sounders unreliable since
Must be that those pesky polar bears are trying to hide the decline.
Posted by: Account Deleted | July 10, 2012 at 02:27
Great find, Rob Dekker!
I always find it hard to interprete these buoy data. I haven't been able yet to cook out the graphs produced by the Ice Tethered profilers, too. Friv on Awx often produces them to illustrate warming layers under the pack in the Beaufort/Chukchi region.
On UB today: you may see what the big high and dipole have been rearranging yesterday. While the pack maze on the CAA side was clearly torn open on MODIS yesterday, UB shows the Siberian polynia's coming together and spreading like an inkstain on a cotton blouse.
Posted by: Werther | July 10, 2012 at 08:05
Rob,
Let me know if you want me to shut up over on WUWT. It just burns me up to see, again, how wrong-headed authoritarians take that tone with you, when you are just trying to point out some basic math about ice albedo. By the way, again, nice pick up on your post here.
Posted by: Timothy Hanes | July 10, 2012 at 08:46
Melt is getting close to 3 MK off since beginning of June. SIX MK loss by mid August is possible. Yesterday minus 159 K, today an extreme prelim.
Posted by: Werther | July 10, 2012 at 12:13
Holy, another Prelim to Final < 25KKm square adjustment at IJIS/JAXA (Werther was quick-er)
Final__ Prelim
8400938 8375938 (8th)
8241719 8218281 (9th)
?????????? 8048906 (10th)
And, another prelim-prelim of now -169K. More Scorchio.
Posted by: Seke Rob | July 10, 2012 at 13:07
Near perfect synchronous SIE "swimming" of the JAXA/DMI/MASIE extent threesome... near, because MASIE is a few hours behind updating their dailies.
http://bit.ly/MASDMI
Posted by: Seke Rob | July 10, 2012 at 13:17
CT has fallen to below 6M:
latest 5.975, a fall of 63k overnight.
The negative anomaly is getting smaller, though, and is now just -1.68M.
Posted by: idunno | July 10, 2012 at 14:18
--CT SIA fell just 62k yesterday, Day 191, but that drop was enough to push area under 6 million km2, the earliest that threshold has been crossed (second place, Day 192, is held by 2007).
--Though the drop wasn't a lot--and, in fact, the 2012 anomaly has fallen five of the last six days as melting has slowed, at least temporarily--it was still enough to keep 2012 in the lead, as it has been for the past 10 consecutive days, and 26 of the last 31.
--It took a mere 101 days this year for area to fall from its maximum to below 6 million km2. That's the fastest on record by far; the 1979-2011 average was 144 days, with a maximum of 176 days (1996) and a minimum of 123 days (2003).
While most anything is possible, of course, it seems that something pretty unexpected would have to happen over the next nine weeks or so for 2012 to not set a new record minimum. The five million line should be crossed somewhere between July 20 and 24, and four million between August 5 and August 20. That earlier date, which looks very reasonable, would leave five weeks or so of melting/flushing, while even the later date would allow three weeks or so.
This should be very interesting...
Posted by: Jim_pettit | July 10, 2012 at 15:13
Churchill, Manitoba, 30.4°C home to the Polar Bears.
http://text.www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/forecast/city_e.html?mb-42&unit=m
Tonight's overnight low of 20C will be 3C above the normal daily maximum.
Wednesday's forecast? Scorchio!
Posted by: Artful Dodger | July 11, 2012 at 11:21
And the century-hits keep coming...
CT area minus 186 K, IJIS extent yesterday minus110K, prelim today again minus 150K.
Posted by: Werther | July 12, 2012 at 15:08
Arghh, IJIS stayed just 5157 km square over the 8 million hurdle to drop below. It will then be 10 days for the current million to go, 2 days more than last year, 2 days later than last year.
Prelim-Prelim is -125K, so an anticipation of another century is not premature.
One eye glancing over to the Antarctic... that corner mirrors the loss of the Arctic with a plus sign.
Posted by: Seke Rob | July 12, 2012 at 15:49
Just for interest's sake, I glanced at the Bremen imagery to see when shipping lanes opened last year.
It was about July 22 for the Northern Route.
August 22 for the NWP. We could be on track for similar openings about the same times.
Posted by: Apocalypse4Real | July 12, 2012 at 15:52
Noted [or in the news sidebar] some weeks ago that a few Russian arctic class oil tankers http://www.sciencepoles.org/news/news_detail/low_arctic_sea_ice_extent_allows_first_tankers_to_depart_murmansk_earlier_t/ had left earlier than ever before to supply some North Siberia towns i.e. partway is navigable already. The CAA, if following this comparison of the 9th http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=07&fd=09&fy=2011&sm=07&sd=09&sy=2012 could use some melt/transport help
Latest Shell drilling news lets me hope that heck will freeze sooner http://royaldutchshellplc.com/2012/07/11/la-times-editorial-shells-arctic-gamble/ Lawsuit filed on Tuesday may be another spanner in the wheel.
Posted by: Seke Rob | July 12, 2012 at 16:25
With NSIDC/MASIE in, not shy either at -174K reduction for the day and -743K for the rolling 7 days, the 3 way chart is up to date again: http://bit.ly/MASDMI
Okhotsk dropped to zero and Bering has 15.36 km square left... for accuracy. With Chukchi, Laptev and East Siberia hardly making a move this is leaving the total just very nimbly below 2011. See http://bit.ly/MASIEA
Posted by: Seke Rob | July 12, 2012 at 16:54
I notice the Jason Box graphs of Greenland albedo are being kept up-to-date.
http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=514
The dramatic dips in the 2000m & 2500m graphs have now reached a bottom. Assuming its all up from now, but the drops still remain eye-catching.
Posted by: Al Rodger | July 12, 2012 at 21:52
In what were the old days (only three years ago) the big low in the central-east Arctic would be stalling extent/area.
Today again CT minus 131K, IJIS extent minus 105 yesterday and again 150K prelim.
To be verified instantly on MODIS. The Basin region north of ESAS/Laptev, r04c04, is a mess, holes showing up to 10x5 km2.
The Laptev is shedding it's piggy account.
North of the line Svalbard-Severnaya Zemlya a 100 km wide band is stretching and falling apart as individual floes.
Posted by: Werther | July 13, 2012 at 15:24
That will more or less be the theme of this weekend's new update. :-)
Posted by: Neven | July 13, 2012 at 20:19
Well, that was three years ago. Haruhi rules this world now. Her giant creatures are smashing the structures of this world, and we've got to hope we can keep her at changing the world instead of completely replacing it with a new one.
(Incidentally, haru=spring, hi=day)
Posted by: AmbiValent | July 13, 2012 at 20:57
It's pretty amazing how within 10 days the anomaly at CT area swings from -1.92 to -1.5 back to -1.92... a loss of 240K Km square in a day... melt ponds that remelted after a short refreez maybe?
http://bit.ly/CTAANM
nttp://bit.ly/CTARCA
http://bit.ly/CTAR02
date_____ Day Date_serial Anomaly __Actual_ Base Line
2-Jul-2012 184 2012,5042 -1,9153515 6,2164788 8,1318302
3-Jul-2012 185 2012,5068 -1,8358341 6,1921525 8,0279865
4-Jul-2012 186 2012,5096 -1,7798750 6,1642051 7,9440799
5-Jul-2012 187 2012,5123 -1,7906500 6,0599308 7,8505807
6-Jul-2012 188 2012,5150 -1,7124857 6,0385265 7,7510123
7-Jul-2012 189 2012,5178 -1,6786253 5,9758739 7,6544995
8-Jul-2012 190 2012,5205 -1,6502831 5,9155774 7,5658603
9-Jul-2012 191 2012,5233 -1,7423959 5,7292461 7,4716420
9-Jul-2012 191 2012,5260 -1,7798516 5,5981722 7,3780236
10-Jul-2012 192 2012,5288 -1,9248636 5,3582525 7,2831163
Something is leaking cold off the planet.
Posted by: Seke Rob | July 14, 2012 at 15:36
Oops, that -1.5 to read -1.65
Is update ASI 2012 Update 7 in the making, "A False Lull"?
Posted by: Seke Rob | July 14, 2012 at 15:41
Now having figured out how to make Animated PNG files or for short APNG (more resolution to the more common GIF, but using more bandwidth/storage), here a first attempt at doing this to the DMI/JAXA/MASIE curve for the last 2 days.
http://i137.photobucket.com/albums/q210/Sekerob/Climate/MASIE_JAXA_DMIa.png
Moving in near-perfect unison, still, frames at 500 msec update.
As time progresses, will try not to forget to snapshot the daily updates so it may be rolled off later in the season for some more, or less, entertaining moments in Arctic ice eyeing.
Posted by: Seke Rob | July 14, 2012 at 17:14
Seke Rob;
That makes good sense, extend it to a week, will be more educational!
Posted by: Espen Olsen | July 14, 2012 at 17:32
Anyone else noticed all the fragmented ice flowing inshore at Barrow, presumably where it will melt quickly?
Phil.
Posted by: me.yahoo.com/a/nSjChi4X3vr8X3DRw93GkY1.cerja.8nvWk- | July 14, 2012 at 17:39
Phil:
No it is the ice recovering! ;)
Posted by: Espen Olsen | July 14, 2012 at 17:40
Phil., I noticed. Looked funny. :-)
Posted by: Neven | July 14, 2012 at 19:36
Weekly report Polarstern 3-8 july:
As we were able to see on UB charts and MODIS, the crew reports anomalous (for june-july), thick MIY on the west side of the Fram Strait transect. They speak of dense, 2-3 m thick floes, passing so quick that recovering and deploying moorings was difficult.
Posted by: Werther | July 14, 2012 at 22:29
This SLP is going to compact a lot of ice.
I am not sure how this has not been discussed vs the lack of melt from clouds/cooler air.
There is so much thin ice with holes that will compact.
Posted by: Chris Biscan | July 14, 2012 at 23:52
Perhaps we need an office pool on the next buoy to get flushed through the Fram.
http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/maps_daily_track-map.html
83465 has blazed the trail. 100084 has a lead on the pack, but might not be on the fastest part of the track.
Posted by: Bob Wallace | July 15, 2012 at 00:25
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/07/the-wet-side-of-greenland.html#comments
The ice is in deep bleep.
This vortex is going to churn the ice to bleep bleep and more bleep.
Compaction from many angles. Almost Angular but not angular, while colder air will pool under the lower albedo cloud cover and ice. Warm air will get pulled in but far more important is the compacting strong winds.
Posted by: Chris Biscan | July 15, 2012 at 08:36
Bob, looking at the North Pole site the webcams are travelling South at about 1deg/day so on that basis I'd expect it to enter the Fram in about a month.
Phil.
Posted by: me.yahoo.com/a/nSjChi4X3vr8X3DRw93GkY1.cerja.8nvWk- | July 15, 2012 at 12:17
Should be 0.1deg/day.
Phil.
Posted by: me.yahoo.com/a/nSjChi4X3vr8X3DRw93GkY1.cerja.8nvWk- | July 15, 2012 at 12:19
60 day area decline record. Only 1985 had managed an average of over a century a day for a 60 day period until the last 2 days
2012 102.58
1985 101.04
2007 99.45
Posted by: crandles | July 15, 2012 at 12:50
Companion chart to the Extent Step chart for the 8 Million history of NSIDC/IJIS: http://bit.ly/EXT08M
Posted by: Seke Rob | July 15, 2012 at 13:15
For those familiar with this one http://bit.ly/CTGB01 depicting a Global Sea Ice Area plot with standard deviation range, there's now http://bit.ly/CTAR01 for the Arctic breakout, For what it's worth [Buffalo Springfield].
Posted by: Seke Rob | July 15, 2012 at 17:56
New ASI update is up.
Posted by: Neven | July 15, 2012 at 19:23