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Bob Wallace

That Joulee image likely needs some adjustment. It's probably underexposed. The surface is most likely a lot brighter than what is shown.

Rob Dekker

More on Joules and Watts :

I've been keeping an eye of the Mass Balance Buoys from CRREL.

Unfortunately, CRREL seems to update the mass balance (ice thickness) data of their buoys only on a monthly or bi-monthly basis, which is eternity during the melting season.
Still, I found this very interesting graph from buoy 2011, which is situated in the Canadian Archipelago.
Little ocean heat influx current going on there, so most melting comes from the top.

Here you see that snow melt started in beginning of June, but with the high albedo of the still fresh snow it took a while (almost 3 weeks) for the snow to melt out.
When that happened, albedo changed quickly (didn't we see that reflected in the Modis pictures and the regional "ice area" a few weeks ago?) and since then, ice melt started to progress very rapidly.

The graph indicates a top-melt of 4 cm/day, which suggests that a whopping 153 W/m^2 is currently absorbed to melt the ice.
With clear skies dominating the Archipelago close to 300 W/m^2 insolation could be expected on the ice in June. With an albedo of about 0.5, this suggests that local albedo (of the ice itself) is the main cause of top-melt in the Archipelago right now.

Interesting huh ?

Account Deleted

It is Rob, but it's a shame that many of the buoys are showing.
Top &/or Bottoms Sounders unreliable since

Must be that those pesky polar bears are trying to hide the decline.


Great find, Rob Dekker!
I always find it hard to interprete these buoy data. I haven't been able yet to cook out the graphs produced by the Ice Tethered profilers, too. Friv on Awx often produces them to illustrate warming layers under the pack in the Beaufort/Chukchi region.

On UB today: you may see what the big high and dipole have been rearranging yesterday. While the pack maze on the CAA side was clearly torn open on MODIS yesterday, UB shows the Siberian polynia's coming together and spreading like an inkstain on a cotton blouse.

Timothy Hanes

Let me know if you want me to shut up over on WUWT. It just burns me up to see, again, how wrong-headed authoritarians take that tone with you, when you are just trying to point out some basic math about ice albedo. By the way, again, nice pick up on your post here.


Melt is getting close to 3 MK off since beginning of June. SIX MK loss by mid August is possible. Yesterday minus 159 K, today an extreme prelim.

Seke Rob

Holy, another Prelim to Final < 25KKm square adjustment at IJIS/JAXA (Werther was quick-er)

Final__ Prelim
8400938 8375938 (8th)
8241719 8218281 (9th)
?????????? 8048906 (10th)

And, another prelim-prelim of now -169K. More Scorchio.

Seke Rob

Near perfect synchronous SIE "swimming" of the JAXA/DMI/MASIE extent threesome... near, because MASIE is a few hours behind updating their dailies.



CT has fallen to below 6M:

latest 5.975, a fall of 63k overnight.

The negative anomaly is getting smaller, though, and is now just -1.68M.


--CT SIA fell just 62k yesterday, Day 191, but that drop was enough to push area under 6 million km2, the earliest that threshold has been crossed (second place, Day 192, is held by 2007).

--Though the drop wasn't a lot--and, in fact, the 2012 anomaly has fallen five of the last six days as melting has slowed, at least temporarily--it was still enough to keep 2012 in the lead, as it has been for the past 10 consecutive days, and 26 of the last 31.

--It took a mere 101 days this year for area to fall from its maximum to below 6 million km2. That's the fastest on record by far; the 1979-2011 average was 144 days, with a maximum of 176 days (1996) and a minimum of 123 days (2003).

While most anything is possible, of course, it seems that something pretty unexpected would have to happen over the next nine weeks or so for 2012 to not set a new record minimum. The five million line should be crossed somewhere between July 20 and 24, and four million between August 5 and August 20. That earlier date, which looks very reasonable, would leave five weeks or so of melting/flushing, while even the later date would allow three weeks or so.

This should be very interesting...

Artful Dodger

Churchill, Manitoba, 30.4°C home to the Polar Bears.


Tonight's overnight low of 20C will be 3C above the normal daily maximum.

Wednesday's forecast? Scorchio!


And the century-hits keep coming...
CT area minus 186 K, IJIS extent yesterday minus110K, prelim today again minus 150K.

Seke Rob

Arghh, IJIS stayed just 5157 km square over the 8 million hurdle to drop below. It will then be 10 days for the current million to go, 2 days more than last year, 2 days later than last year.

Prelim-Prelim is -125K, so an anticipation of another century is not premature.

One eye glancing over to the Antarctic... that corner mirrors the loss of the Arctic with a plus sign.


Just for interest's sake, I glanced at the Bremen imagery to see when shipping lanes opened last year.

It was about July 22 for the Northern Route.

August 22 for the NWP. We could be on track for similar openings about the same times.

Seke Rob

Noted [or in the news sidebar] some weeks ago that a few Russian arctic class oil tankers http://www.sciencepoles.org/news/news_detail/low_arctic_sea_ice_extent_allows_first_tankers_to_depart_murmansk_earlier_t/ had left earlier than ever before to supply some North Siberia towns i.e. partway is navigable already. The CAA, if following this comparison of the 9th http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=07&fd=09&fy=2011&sm=07&sd=09&sy=2012 could use some melt/transport help

Latest Shell drilling news lets me hope that heck will freeze sooner http://royaldutchshellplc.com/2012/07/11/la-times-editorial-shells-arctic-gamble/ Lawsuit filed on Tuesday may be another spanner in the wheel.

Seke Rob

With NSIDC/MASIE in, not shy either at -174K reduction for the day and -743K for the rolling 7 days, the 3 way chart is up to date again: http://bit.ly/MASDMI

Okhotsk dropped to zero and Bering has 15.36 km square left... for accuracy. With Chukchi, Laptev and East Siberia hardly making a move this is leaving the total just very nimbly below 2011. See http://bit.ly/MASIEA

Al Rodger

I notice the Jason Box graphs of Greenland albedo are being kept up-to-date.
The dramatic dips in the 2000m & 2500m graphs have now reached a bottom. Assuming its all up from now, but the drops still remain eye-catching.


In what were the old days (only three years ago) the big low in the central-east Arctic would be stalling extent/area.
Today again CT minus 131K, IJIS extent minus 105 yesterday and again 150K prelim.
To be verified instantly on MODIS. The Basin region north of ESAS/Laptev, r04c04, is a mess, holes showing up to 10x5 km2.
The Laptev is shedding it's piggy account.
North of the line Svalbard-Severnaya Zemlya a 100 km wide band is stretching and falling apart as individual floes.


In what were the old days (only three years ago) the big low in the central-east Arctic would be stalling extent/area.

That will more or less be the theme of this weekend's new update. :-)


Well, that was three years ago. Haruhi rules this world now. Her giant creatures are smashing the structures of this world, and we've got to hope we can keep her at changing the world instead of completely replacing it with a new one.

(Incidentally, haru=spring, hi=day)

Seke Rob

It's pretty amazing how within 10 days the anomaly at CT area swings from -1.92 to -1.5 back to -1.92... a loss of 240K Km square in a day... melt ponds that remelted after a short refreez maybe?


date_____ Day Date_serial Anomaly __Actual_ Base Line
2-Jul-2012 184 2012,5042 -1,9153515 6,2164788 8,1318302
3-Jul-2012 185 2012,5068 -1,8358341 6,1921525 8,0279865
4-Jul-2012 186 2012,5096 -1,7798750 6,1642051 7,9440799
5-Jul-2012 187 2012,5123 -1,7906500 6,0599308 7,8505807
6-Jul-2012 188 2012,5150 -1,7124857 6,0385265 7,7510123
7-Jul-2012 189 2012,5178 -1,6786253 5,9758739 7,6544995
8-Jul-2012 190 2012,5205 -1,6502831 5,9155774 7,5658603
9-Jul-2012 191 2012,5233 -1,7423959 5,7292461 7,4716420
9-Jul-2012 191 2012,5260 -1,7798516 5,5981722 7,3780236
10-Jul-2012 192 2012,5288 -1,9248636 5,3582525 7,2831163

Something is leaking cold off the planet.

Seke Rob

Oops, that -1.5 to read -1.65

Is update ASI 2012 Update 7 in the making, "A False Lull"?

Seke Rob

Now having figured out how to make Animated PNG files or for short APNG (more resolution to the more common GIF, but using more bandwidth/storage), here a first attempt at doing this to the DMI/JAXA/MASIE curve for the last 2 days.


Moving in near-perfect unison, still, frames at 500 msec update.

As time progresses, will try not to forget to snapshot the daily updates so it may be rolled off later in the season for some more, or less, entertaining moments in Arctic ice eyeing.

Espen Olsen

Seke Rob;

That makes good sense, extend it to a week, will be more educational!


Anyone else noticed all the fragmented ice flowing inshore at Barrow, presumably where it will melt quickly?


Espen Olsen


No it is the ice recovering! ;)


Phil., I noticed. Looked funny. :-)


Weekly report Polarstern 3-8 july:
As we were able to see on UB charts and MODIS, the crew reports anomalous (for june-july), thick MIY on the west side of the Fram Strait transect. They speak of dense, 2-3 m thick floes, passing so quick that recovering and deploying moorings was difficult.

Chris Biscan

This SLP is going to compact a lot of ice.

I am not sure how this has not been discussed vs the lack of melt from clouds/cooler air.

There is so much thin ice with holes that will compact.

Bob Wallace

Perhaps we need an office pool on the next buoy to get flushed through the Fram.


83465 has blazed the trail. 100084 has a lead on the pack, but might not be on the fastest part of the track.

Chris Biscan


The ice is in deep bleep.

This vortex is going to churn the ice to bleep bleep and more bleep.

Compaction from many angles. Almost Angular but not angular, while colder air will pool under the lower albedo cloud cover and ice. Warm air will get pulled in but far more important is the compacting strong winds.


Bob, looking at the North Pole site the webcams are travelling South at about 1deg/day so on that basis I'd expect it to enter the Fram in about a month.



Should be 0.1deg/day.



60 day area decline record. Only 1985 had managed an average of over a century a day for a 60 day period until the last 2 days

2012 102.58
1985 101.04
2007 99.45

Seke Rob

Companion chart to the Extent Step chart for the 8 Million history of NSIDC/IJIS: http://bit.ly/EXT08M

Seke Rob

For those familiar with this one http://bit.ly/CTGB01 depicting a Global Sea Ice Area plot with standard deviation range, there's now http://bit.ly/CTAR01 for the Arctic breakout, For what it's worth [Buffalo Springfield].


New ASI update is up.

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