SEARCH 2012 Sea Ice Outlook: July report

The second Sea Ice Outlook of this year has been released. The SIO is organized by the interagency "system-scale, cross-disciplinary, long-term arctic research program" SEARCH (Study of Environmental Arctic Change), and is a compilation of projections for the September 2011 Arctic sea ice extent, based on NSIDC monthly extent values. These projections are submitted by professionals as well as amateurs, such as our own Chris Randles and Larry Hamilton.

Here's the summary for the July report:

With 21 responses for the Pan-Arctic Outlook (plus 5 regional Outlook contributions), the July Sea Ice Outlook projects a September 2012 arctic sea extent median value of 4.6 million square kilometers (Figure 1) [The median value for the 2011 July SIO was also 4.6 million square km, N.]. The consensus is for continued low values of September sea ice extent. Individual responses are based on a range of methods: statistical, numerical models, comparison with previous rates of sea ice loss, composites of several approaches, estimates based on various non-sea ice datasets and trends, and subjective information. Again, it is important to note for context that the estimates are well below the 1979–2007 September mean of 6.7 million square kilometers. The quartiles for July are 4.2 and 4.7 million square kilometers, a rather narrow range given that the uncertainty of individual estimates are on the order of 0.5 million square kilometers. This is also a narrower range than last year, which was 4.0 to 5.5. The July Outlook is generally similar to the June Outlook; the July median is higher by 0.2 million square kilometers than the June estimate, but the quartiles are similar.

And here's the figure showing all the projections (click for a larger version):

These are the September monthly average minimums in the 2005-2011 period:

• 2005: 5.57 million square km
• 2006: 5.92 million square km
• 2007: 4.30 million square km
• 2008: 4.73 million square km
• 2009: 5.39 million square km
• 2010: 4.93 million square km
• 2011: 4.61 million square km

If you want to compare this outlook with those of previous years, there's an archive on the SEARCH home page (in the left hand bar). Here's an overview of blog posts on this subject in 2010 and 2011.

Next up is a blog post with the results of the two polls in the right hand bar, but I can tell you in advance that the result of the June poll for the NSIDC minimum monthly/September sea ice extent was an average of 4.29 million square km, just below the 2007 record.

Comments

[idunno]

Hi all,

I recommend checking out the regional forecasts on the SEARCH site, as interesting as the Pan-Arctic forecasts.

I've also not previously noticed the Walrus forecasts, which have stopped now for this year, but which may provide an early-season insight into the Arctic which we are currently overlooking?