Arctic Sea Ice

Record dominoes 9: PIOMAS sea ice volume

The people from PIOMAS have done an extra data release (there'll be another one next week for all of the August data). This data shows us that yet another record domino has fallen, after so many others already. This is one of the biggest dominoes out there, especially now that observational data from CryoSat-2 is largely confirming PIOMAS modeled data. It's all about the volume.

Here's the graph that clearly shows the new record:

Here is Wipneus' version with the calculated "expected" 2012 values (dotted lines), based on the same date values of 1979-2011 and an exponential trend.
A caveat from Wipneus: "Note that the statistical error bars are quite large."
Statistical error bars aside, the trend line follows the dotted forecast line almost to a T.

Here's Larry Hamilton's excellent bar graph:

Similar melts from 1938-43?

I'm supposed to be on a holiday and should let this one slide, but it's too much. I was expecting fake skeptics to remain mostly silent in face of the ice massacre up north, but apparently they acutely sense how big this blow is to the remaining shred of their credibility, and so they upped the ante of misleading and distorting stupidity. Anyone can see and judge the silliness of paid shill Marc Morano, 5-sentence posts regurgitator/vomiter Steve Goddard and of course WUWT. But this Sunday Times article, written by well-known pseudo-journalist Jonathan Leake (search for his name on Deltoid) had a quote by presumed scientist John Christy that really got my hackles up:

Professor John Christy director of the Earth System Science Centre at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, said the Arctic had indeed warmed, but there was also anecdotal and other evidence suggesting similar melts from 1938-43 and on other occasions.

"Climate change is a murky science", he said. "To some it's an easy answer to say it's due to extra green house gasses. To the rest of us, separating natural variability from human impacts remains a wicked problem."

Commenters over at Skeptical Science quickly took this nonsense apart. First FrankD:

Danske Meteorologiske Institut published a series of annual reports on arctic sea ice covering most years from 1893 to 1956. The link has one folder per year, with each containing individual pages (month identified by the trailing digit) and the whole annual report (about 5 meg each).

Just referring to August extent...

Its true that ice extent was lower in the 1930s than it had been in the preceding 30 years. In particular, 1938 saw a dramatic reduction from the previous years - it was probably 1.4 M km^2 below the then long term average and maybe 0.6 M km^2 below the already low years in the late 30's (carefully measured using Eyeball, Mk I).

So, it is fair to say there were some big melts in the 30's. But Christy's false equivalence is an epic fail - "similar melts" is pretty nice weasel-wording for mine. 1.4 M km^2 below recent climatology? Considered like that, 1938 was like 2010, I guess.

But in absolute terms, August 1938 extent was much greater (4 M km^2?) than today. So any attempt to conflate the two is...well...I can['t think of an adjective suitable for polite company.

Taking the Kinnard graphic - the 1930's "similar melt" is the second last dip on the graph, the first decline with modern observational data. This saw a return to "normal" after a peak that had seen the greatest extents in 500 years.

Compared to the current decline on Kinnard (even without "enhancement")? Well, even on Sesame Street they could tell you when one of these things was not like the other...

And then Daniel Bailey posted these two graphs:

Arctic Sea Ice Extent August 1938:

[Source]

Arctic Sea Ice Extent August 2012:

[Source]

My question to Dr. Christy: Why do you lie?

Why Arctic sea ice shouldn't leave anyone cold

The sea ice is leaving us a bit more every year. It's time to start contemplating its absence, which is why I teamed up with Kevin McKinney to write an extended version of the shorter piece you might see pop up here and there. Because you know, disappearing sea ice isn't without consequences.
And that's why it shouldn't leave you cold.

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Why Arctic sea ice shouldn't leave anyone cold

The first world in ancient Norse mythology, Niflheim,
sounds just like the Arctic ice. Its snow- and ice-melt gave rise to the frost giant Ymir, from whose body the whole cosmos was formed. Today, science tells us a different story about the sea ice, but in that story, too, the ice is far older than humans. According to Polyak et al. (2010):

…sea ice became a feature of the Arctic by 47 [million years before the present], following a pronounced decline [in carbon dioxide concentrations]… Ice was apparently most widespread during the last 2–3 million years, in accordance with Earth's overall cooler climate.

Since modern humans are just 200,000 years old, the ice might as well be eternal.

But not unchanging. We live in that part of an ice age that is termed an interglacial, when some of the ice retreats in summer. During modern human history the ice cap has melted back each summer as Earth tipped toward the sun, then grown again with new freezing as the year turned toward the Winter solstice.

Polyak et al. continues:

ASI 2012 update 10: (wh)at a loss

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) and Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2011 period (NSIDC has a good explanation of sea ice extent and area in their FAQ). I also look at other things like regional sea ice area, compactness, temperature and weather forecasts, anything that can be of particular interest.

Check out the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website for
daily updated graphs, maps and live webcam images.

August 25th 2012

I apologize for having provided so little analysis lately, but things are moving so fast that analysis can't keep up. Now I know what an IPCC regional model for the Arctic must feel like. ;-)

Basically, I'm at a loss for words, and not just because my jaw has dropped and won't go back up as long as I'm looking at the graphs. I'm also at a loss - and I have already said it a couple of times this year - because I just don't know what to expect any longer. I had a very steep learning curve in the past two years. We all did. But it feels as if everything I've learned has become obsolete. As if you've learned to play the guitar a bit in two years' time, and then all of a sudden have to play a xylophone. Will trend lines go even lower, or will the remaining ice pack with its edges so close to the North Pole start to freeze up?

Basically I have nothing to offer right now except short posts when yet another of those record dominoes has fallen. Hopefully I can come up with some useful post-melting season analysis when I return from a two-week holiday.

I'm at a loss at this loss. The 2007 record that stunned everyone, gets shattered without 2007 weather conditions. The ice is thin. PIOMAS was/is right.

Sea ice extent (SIE)

WindSat or no WindSat, the 2012 trendline on the IJIS SIE graph has dropped like a rock:

I had to adjust the Y-axis on this graph already once (compared to the one in the last ASI update), and it looks like I'll have to adjust it again. I already announced the new IJIS SIE record minimum yesterday, although it was based on the preliminary number. But after the revision the record is still standing and IJIS still hasn't stopped producing century breaks.

The current difference between 2012 and other years (without the unrealistic last data point that gets revised upwards) is as follows:

Record dominoes 8: NSIDC daily sea ice extent

There are several scientific organisations that keep an eye on the Arctic sea ice cover and put out graphs to inform us of the amount of ice that is left. You can see most, if not all, of them on the ASI Graphs webpage. I expect the record on most of these graphs to be broken in weeks to come.

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The daily sea ice extent graph of the National Snow & Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, one of the foremost and best-known organizations observing the Arctic, is showing a new record. Actually, the graph went crazy and is showing new record year 2012 only (will be fixed soon, I'm sure; edit: smart crandles says "it performs exactly what was asked i.e. display current year and year with the record low."):

Edit 2: the graph has been fixed and updated, so I have made an animation that shows how the trend line dropped from the Arctic storm onwards:
But we have the numbers this time, because NSIDC decided - kudos to them - to release their daily numbers (hat-tip to Larry Hamilton):

Record dominoes 7: Arctic ROOS sea ice extent

There are several scientific organisations that keep an eye on the Arctic sea ice cover and put out graphs to inform us of the amount of ice that is left. You can see most, if not all, of them on the ASI Graphs webpage. I expect the record on most of these graphs to be broken in weeks to come.

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This used to be the last bastion of fake skeptics who cannot come to terms with what is happening in the Arctic and have to keep misleading till the bitter end (über-conservative IMS is now providing them refuge, like a cardboard box provided shelter to a Pakistani family in 2010's monsoon that wouldn't stop), but Arctic ROOS sea ice extent has fallen too:

Have to rush now, another big domino has fallen: NSIDC daily sea ice extent.

Record dominoes 6: IJIS sea ice extent

There are several scientific organisations that keep an eye on the Arctic sea ice cover and put out graphs to inform us of the amount of ice that is left. You can see most, if not all, of them on the ASI Graphs webpage. I expect the record on most of these graphs to be broken in weeks to come.

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After Uni Bremen extent, Arctic ROOS area, Cryosphere Today sea ice area, DMI sea ice extent and CT Arctic Basin SIA, another big domino has fallen, one of the most popular graphs in recent years, mostly because they have downloadable daily updated data: IJIS sea ice extent.

Here's how the graph I use for ASI updates is looking right now:

The 2012 has plunged below all previous minimums, but I have to add the caveat that this is based on a preliminary data point for August 24th, which will be revised tomorrow. It needs to be revised upwards by 66 thousand square km for this record not to remain standing. Even if this happens, the record will almost certainly be broken tomorrow.

Here are the numbers for the IJIS SIE minimums in the 2005-2012 period:

• 2005: 5.315 million square km
• 2006: 5.781 million square km
• 2007: 4.255 million square km
• 2008: 4.715 million square km
• 2009: 5.250 million square km
• 2010: 4.814 million square km
• 2011: 4.527 million square km
• 2012: 4.189 million square km (and running)

Another caveat is that the IARC-JAXA Information System (IJIS) - an international collaboration between the International Arctic Research Center (IARC) in corporation with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) - has switched from the AMSR-E to the WindSat sensor, when AMSR-E stopped functioning last year. WindSat isn't as sophisticated as AMSR-E, so this could cause slight inconsistencies between the yearly numbers.

However, it seems that IJIS is soon switching to ASMR-2, the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2, that is similar to predecessor ASMR-E, but better. All data will be consistent again when that happens. More on that later.

Next up is NSIDC daily sea ice extent or Arctic ROOS sea ice extent...

Peeking through the clouds 5

Commenter dabize has sent me the latest 'declouded' version of the False-Colour Composite images Environment Canada makes of the LANCE-MODIS satellite images. They give us an excellent view of week to week changes that are blocked by cloudy conditions in the Arctic.

Changes in the ice pack really stand out, but also keep an eye on the Canadian Archipelago and Northwest Passage, where in situ melting is jaw-dropping this year:

Record dominoes 5: Arctic Basin sea ice area

There are several scientific organisations that keep an eye on the Arctic sea ice cover and put out graphs to inform us of the amount of ice that is left. You can see most, if not all, of them on the ASI Graphs webpage. I expect the record on most of these graphs to be broken in weeks to come.

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This is just a regional sea ice area graph put out by Cryosphere Today, but it happens to be the most important regional graph out there. This is the place where the last ice is expected to be if and when the Arctic is approaching an ice-free state. On this graph we clearly see the minimums for all the years in the satellite period (click for a larger version):
The data on this graph has been the source of a recurrent discussion on the ASI blog, revolving around the question: Was a plateau of around 2.3 million square km reached in 2007? This year might give us a clue. The trend line has already surpassed 2.25 million square km, but maybe things will level off now. Or it could dip below 2 million square km. We'll know in a few weeks, but either way, this is yet another record that was broken this year.

Record dominoes 4: DMI sea ice extent

There are several scientific organisations that keep an eye on the Arctic sea ice cover and put out graphs to inform us of the amount of ice that is left. You can see most, if not all, of them on the ASI Graphs webpage. I expect the record on most of these graphs to be broken in weeks to come.

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If I were addicted to records, I'd have OD-ed by now. Out of the approximately 9 sea ice extent and area graphs on the ASI Graphs page, 4 have broken their record so far. After Uni Bremen extent, Arctic ROOS area, Cryosphere Today sea ice area (big one), we have a new sea ice domino: Danish Meteorological Institute sea ice extent. DMI uses a 30% threshold instead of the more habitual 15% (meaning every grid cell containing a concentration higher than 30% gets counted for total extent).

Larry Hamilton sent me graphs and numbers:

     Year | min(totaldmi)
----------+--------------
     2005 |         4.138
     2006 |         4.336
     2007 |        3.0523
     2008 |        3.4441
     2009 |        3.8455
     2010 |        3.6416
     2011 |        3.3207
     2012 |        3.0311

Thanks, Larry!

As a bonus I've made an animation of the daily DMI graphs from the moment that cylcone hit to the new minimum: