Record dominoes 2: Arctic ROOS sea ice area

There are several scientific organisations that keep an eye on the Arctic sea ice cover and put out graphs to inform us of the amount of ice that is left. You can see most, if not all, of them on the ASI Graphs webpage. I expect the record on most of these graphs to be broken in weeks to come.

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Using the paper sheet against the monitor method, I hereby declare a second record to have been established this year, that of Arctic ROOS sea ice area:
Next up is DMI sea ice extent and/or Cryosphere Today sea ice area...

Comments

[NeilT]

Cryoshpere Today has already passed it. That Domino fell a couple of days ago and is still dropping

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

DMI appears to be right on the line but, without corroborating numbers, it's hard to tell. Although it has weeks yet to meet the same low point of 2007.

[Ac A]

Hello Neven,

OT to your post, but maybe you can add to your animations following graph by Tamino (h/t Climate Change Psychology):

http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.cz/2012/08/arctic-sea-ice-volume-gif-by-tamino.html

and here are some other long-term graphs:

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2010/10/16/history-of-arctic-and-antarctic-sea-ice-part-1/

and here:

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/12/02/1400-years-of-arctic-ice/

regards, Alexander

[Artful Dodger]

On the subject of additional graphs, perhaps it's time we looked for a polar jetstream map. This seems to be one of the key emerging effects of the loss of sea ice area in the post 2007 era. I saw a map of N.A. yesterday with the polar jet way up around Great Bear Lake, perhaps 800 km North of the usual track?

[Ac A]

Nah... there are so many people out there (+99%?) who think there is no problem if arctic ice disappearance in the summer.. :)

Alexander

[Werther]

Lodger, I agree. It won’t take long before consequences of the very low extent and almost deleted volume will show up.
I use this link for convenient analyses: http://squall.sfsu.edu/crws/jetstream.html
They produced this for today.

It looks fragmented to me. Other years showed much more continuous bands through NA, the Atlantic, Asia and the Pacific. This map shows a short jet near Great Slave Lake.

[Neven]

Thanks for those suggestions. I'll see where I can fit those graphs in (Tamino on long-term graphs and jet stream on daily graph).

[Artful Dodger]

Bedankt, Werther! This link looks ideal: (static link, latest available data)

http://squall.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_norhem_00.gif

Cheers,
Lodger

[Artful Dodger]

Yikes! Run the 20 day animation, here:

http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/nhemjetstream_model.html

There is strong evidence that the polar jetstream initiated the Great Arctic Cyclone, GAC2012a.

Must save this...

[Espen Olsen]

extend: 4557031, 302500 to go

[johnm33]

AD these any use?
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hemi.00hr.html

[Werther]

You're welcome Lodger.
I've been following this San Francisco State Uni asset for some years now. Always thought I'd better double check 'm with NOAA ESRL data.
Never looked further for these animations! You're right; it looks that at least the high tropospere vortex was induced through a jet stream loop.
I saw something alike during the early february Kara Bulge melt-period.

[Werther]

Thanks Johnm33,
This NCEP site offers GFS model based forecasts of the jet stream. Very useful.

[Artful Dodger]

johnm33, those '200mb Streamlines & Isotachs' look very interesting. I wonder if there is an archive?

Werther, you are a clever man - in any time period. ( h/t Gene Roddenberry ;^)

[Werther]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F20%2F2012+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=250_wnd_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=POLAR&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=&areaDesc=North+Polar+Region&prevArea=POLAR&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

Thanks Lodger,
This is the-not-so-clever-URL to what I think is a very good instrument.
As the Arctic is now clearly reflecting Startreks' 'to boldly go where no man ...etc' it is now time to follow consequences. The days of the ice cover seem marked. For me, I'd change the adjective 'boldly' in 'uncertainly' OSLT.

[Werther]

PS amazing how this group can unlock ifo together. Johnm33 puts AmericanWx info in. Thus pointing me to NCEP. This is the nice part of joining Neven's blog.

[Artful Dodger]

We're going to be so surprised when we realize what caused the anomaly. But then, All good things must come to an end.

[Seke Rob]

All Things "Must" Pass... George Harrison: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_XiffXlDao

Very Next Up, NSIDC/NOAA. This is an evolution of the chart done for CT-SIA, showing how much past and how much still to go: http://i137.photobucket.com/albums/q210/Sekerob/Climate/NSIDC_SIE_Annual_Minima.png

Little WIP, Minimum day# curve still to overlay. 3 of 33 still to pass... as with CT yesterday, here 2008 is still a nose hair ahead of 2012 by a mere 1390 Km^2.

2007 - To Do: 395,380
2011 - To Do: 254,010

[Seke Rob]

Darn, the English with there never ending homophones "past" to read as "passed"

[Apocalypse4Real]

Werther,

I have saved more new favorites in five minutes than in days....This site and contributors are a collaborative powerhouse.

[Al Rodger]

Power up my compter for the first time in a day or two... ...and there she blows.
CT - 2.8775 M sq km.

[dabize]

Speaking of homophones, there = their?

But remember, no gender agreements needed in our fair language, mon ami.............

As for the SIA record, Rob and Jim will be needing another color soon..........

[Werther]

For Gaia this number means nothing. Just stages up to new equilibrium.
The number is merely a marker for us humans. And because we know what it means, it mostly marks our irresponsibility.

[Seke Rob]

For those paying attention [saw it the moment hitting enter ;P]

The 4M color is already in the step chart for SIA [Orange], in case it blinkers off again.

The newly created NSIDC-SIE Minimum mentioned above is now done, with the day of year in when it occurs and a new short http://bit.ly/NSARMn (Case sensitive)

[DrTskoul]

Damn you time zones..... Vacay at Greece and I cannot seem to enjoy my mornings without CT/DMI etc. updates.

Another record is blown huh Al?

[DrTskoul]

CT Arctic Basin Area going to

2 M km2 ??

[Seke Rob]

Orange for SIE that is (Don't know what Jim took for the SIA step).

So CT is 100% on day 2012,6301: http://bit.ly/CTNHMn

[Jim_pettit]

Though it happened 23 days earlier than it did last year, today's CT SIA value is already 27,281 km2 lower than last year's record (which itself only edged out the 2007 record by fewer than 15k km2). 17 days elapsed last year between the date the 3 million km2 mark was passed and the record was set; this year, that only took four days.

Over the course of the record--1979-2011--the average CT area loss from this day to minimum has been 521k km2. Based on a straight extrapolation from prior years, 2012 SIA would/could/almost certaionly will end up somewhere between 1.92 million and 2.77 million km2, with a mean minimum of 2.36 million km2.

Yowza...

[Artful Dodger]

Congrats, Neven you called it over at Tamino's. A new CT SIA record low on Aug 18. Well done. Now if we could only make these predictions in advance! ;^)

[L. Hamilton]

New CT minimum sea ice area:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/sea_ice_N_2011_2012.png

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/sea_ice_N_this_date.png

Northern anomaly:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/sea_ice_N_anomaly_to_date.png

Daily ice loss in August:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/sea_ice_N_delta_this_month.png

[L. Hamilton]

The 27k margin below 2011 is not quite visible in a bar chart,
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/sea_ice_N_min_to_date.png

[idunno]

Hi all,

In addition to being a record in absolute terms, I think the anomaly is very close to being a record in percentage terms.

Currently there is 44% of the ice that is missing.

Without having the software to check this properly, I think this looks higher than at any stage in either 2011 or 2007.

[idunno]

Sorry, to clarify, the above based on CT figures, not Arctic ROOS.

[Kris]

A special for our record lovers:

Yesterday at Barrow an 18,3 °C record max. temperature for the day of the year.

[idunno]

Further on percentages:

The lowest point on the average curve from 1979-2008 is 4.70M kmsquared, on day YYYY.6904 (which possibly is equivalent to September 8 in the old money.

If the anomaly remains as great as at present - 2.26M kmsquared - on that minimum day, then 48% of the ice is missing.

And - I worked this bit out in my head - if the anomaly has grown to 2.35, then HALF the ice is missing.

[Neven]

Record dominoes 3: Cryosphere Today SIA

[Andrew Dodds]

Idunno -

I think that the average curve is slightly misleading for this, what you need to do is work out a baseline average before significant declines set in.

For example, an eyeball of CT from 1979 to 1989 sees minima in the range 5.0-5.5 Mkm2. If we then take 5.25Mkm2 as the pre-AGW average, that means that 2.62Mkm2 is the 50%-missing number.

It also means that in absolute terms, the anomaly is probably bigger than commonly reported.

[Artful Dodger]

idunno wrote: "YYYY.6904 (which possibly is equivalent to September 8 in the old money."

Close! Sep 9. Recall that YYYY.0027 is Jan 1st. The rest follow from there.

Excellent point you make about the Anomaly nearing the remaining SIA itself. This is getting big, and it's NOT your father's Oldsmobile...

Cheers,
Lodger

[Neven]

The 2012 trend line on the Arctic ROOS SIA graph has definitely dipped in uncharted territory.

[Seke Rob]

Had not discovered this charting resource before at Arctic-ROOS, but here is http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ . Click on the Arctic Sep image or follow this direct link http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/icearea_Arctic_Sep.png They're in need of some retroactive rescaling of the Y axis, no later than when the Spetember monthly number is locked in... dipping stiill too: http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext.png Extra special Toninô winds. Just on earth is all that heat coming from, and where it came from, how did it suddenly get up there, whilst chief mentor Roger said it was all gone poof to space?

[Seke Rob]

"Using the paper sheet against monitor", Here's an actual "official" blog entry on the Arctic-ROOS new records [up until August 26], for both area and extent.

http://www.nersc.no/news/new-record-minimum-ice-extent-arctic-and-it-still-melting-rapidly

A record minimum sea ice area in the Arctic is observed now in August 2012 and the ice is still melting rapidly. The ice area is recorded to be 3,26 million square kilometres on 26th August (see figure below), while the previous record sea ice area minimum was 3.64 million square kilometres, reported in 2007. Also a record minimum ice extent (i.e. the ice edge position, see lower figure) is observed at 4.64 million square kilometres, which is significantly less than previous minimum (4,73 million km2) reported on 19th September 2007. The observations are based on the information published at the Nansen Center’s European ice information service www.arctic-roos.org

Could not remember to have read about their hovercraft expedition... it's maybe the best "all surface" a way of transport as any, to scale ridges and cracks.

[Seke Rob]

And the news of theirs keeps rolling, September 11 http://www.nersc.no/news

Nansensenterets Europeiske isinformasjonstjeneste Arctic-ROOS viser en ny minimumsrekord av isareal i Akrtis på ca. 3 millioner kvadratkilometer den 9. september 2012, som er 0,6 millioner kvadratkilometer mindre enn den forrige minimums rekorden fra 2007 (se figur, øvre).

Bokmal translation

Nansen Center's European isinformasjonstjeneste Arctic-ROOS shows a new record minimum ice extent and thickness of the Akrtis approx. 3 million square kilometers of the 9th September 2012, which is 0.6 million square kilometers less than the previous minimum record from 2007 (see figure, top).