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Werther

Photobucket

I couldn't resist putting this pic in the thread. It is Arctic Sunrise in the loose floe-belt N of the Olga Strait.
According to Joe Vidal, who is on board, they are at 350 miles from the Pole. The Ice Edge blog, which presents Dr. Stroeve as a vivid writer, gives 83.2 N.
This journey can give us realtime info while southern winds are going to deal a last, maybe awesome blow to the remaining CAB sheet.
Yes, It is on the move. Maybe a little part to Fram, but most to the other side, tearing the attachment to Greenland and the CAA...

Apocalypse4Real

Werther,

The picture is sobering - off the charts.

If it is reconfirmed that we have less ice than being depicted by satellite, it will be brutal on the Arctic ice that is remaining, if how I am interpreting the wind effects - along with others that have helped us understand this situation.

Otto Lehikoinen

That picture looks like Baltic in early march. so I'd say it's about 1 months worth of energy to melt that. I'd say thats about 40 cm of somewhat rotten ice? There's no time this year to do that that far north before sun goes down, so those floes are the future 2nd year ice. (Provided there's not much bottom melt, that is undoubtly different in the Arctic than in the Baltic.)

LRC

Can it really be termed 2nd year ice if it is that rotten. Technically yes it is, but reality it would act more like 1st year.

Apocalypse4Real

After checking a number of buoys in the Arctic, the sea surface temps are above the freezing point of sea ice...we could still have melt as long as heat is in that surface layer.

See:
http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shiplocations.phtml

Wipneus

Update Sep 15, new low (-6k):

2012.6904 -2.3519816 2.3682005 4.7201824
2012.6931 -2.4117363 2.3153491 4.7270856
2012.6959 -2.4779313 2.2620590 4.7399902
2012.6986 -2.5008738 2.2397964 4.7406702
2012.7014 -2.5154748 2.2340095 4.7494841


Jim Williams

Slowly, but still going down. When is the latest it's ever hit bottom?

Seke Rob

The day after tomorrow, or as I've heard quite a few times in Cairo: Inshallah bukura, malesh (If godwanting, tomorrow, maybe when forgiven)

Jim Williams

Given the way the DMI Arctic Temperatures are acting I think it will be the day after that. Still quite a bit of surface heat out there.

crandles

21 Sep 79 looks like the latest to me. (9 data days time.)

Seke Rob

In the not so ultra fringe, the 2012 YTD average anomaly is now -1.172 million and just now has passed 2007 on that metric by -2K. The year to beat is now 2011 which YTD average stands at -1.239 and Sept.14 is now -0.7M lower than 2011. Matter of [little] time to have that record gone to the archives.

Jim Williams

Is it that or 2006 crandles? (I'm just using their interactive graph; which isn't the easiest thing to work with.)

Seke Rob

All the minimum dates you find e.g. on http://bit.ly/CTNHMn , Sept.30, 1995, yes 2 weeks.

crandles

Oops sorry. I looked at https://sites.google.com/site/pettitclimategraphs/

Is it me again or is there a problem with the top graph on that page?

Wipneus

Update Sep 16, up 31k:

2012.6959 -2.4779313 2.2620590 4.7399902
2012.6986 -2.5008738 2.2397964 4.7406702
2012.7014 -2.5154748 2.2340095 4.7494841
2012.7041 -2.4942927 2.2648528 4.7591457

Wipneus

Update Sep 17, up 15k:

2012.6986 -2.5008738 2.2397964 4.7406702
2012.7014 -2.5154748 2.2340095 4.7494841
2012.7041 -2.4942927 2.2648528 4.7591457
2012.7069 -2.4905059 2.2799201 4.7704258

Jim Williams

I think we need an update article on this record. It's getting rather hard for me to find my daily fix on the area.

Tor Bejnar

Wipneus and others,
Thanks for keeping up the data and remarks in this thread, even if it does take several clicks and several scroll downs to reach it.

Two days of increase - is that a trend? I daren't express an opinion!

Dan P.

Tor -

If you see the post show up under "Recent Comments", you can click on the name of the commenter to get to that recent comment. It's counterintuitive but once someone pointed that out (after I'd been laboriously paging through for months) my life got much better, birds began to sing, the arctic stopped melting, etc.

Artful Dodger

Hi folks,

There's an even easier way to follow a thread: Run a 'Search' with a keyword or two from the post's title. Then on the search results page, use the 'Subscribe' button to create your own custom RSS feed for the topic.

Here's a Sample RSS feed using 'CT SIA' as the search term.

Add the RSS feed to your Browser's Favorites/Bookmarks toolbar for easy access.

Create others such as 'NSIDC', etc as required to follow your favourite topics.

Cheers,
Lodger

Wipneus

Update Sep 18, down (-35k5):

2012.7014 -2.5154748 2.2340095 4.7494841
2012.7041 -2.4942927 2.2648528 4.7591457
2012.7069 -2.4905059 2.2799201 4.7704258
2012.7096 -2.5455823 2.2444446 4.7900267

Wipneus

Update Sep 19, down ( -6k5):

2012.7014 -2.5154748 2.2340095 4.7494841
2012.7041 -2.4942927 2.2648528 4.7591457
2012.7069 -2.4905059 2.2799201 4.7704258
2012.7096 -2.5455823 2.2444446 4.7900267
2012.7123 -2.5824287 2.2379336 4.8203626

Seke Rob

Just not a new year/all-time record, but the anomaly keeps rising... -2,582,487 and the chart y-axis needs rescaling again soon it feels like: http://bit.ly/CTAR02

crandles

Last data was within 4k of the record, so was very close. I am not guaranteeing it, but I think there is a good chance that the 2.234 from 2012.7014 is going to be the low point this year. (At just 4k above record, this is probably foolish.)

Jim Williams

Climatology for the Laptev says it should be starting to freeze over now, and the other seas are soon to follow. The anomaly is about to go into free fall.

Werther

Hi Jim,
You're right. If refreeze looks like fall '07 we should be on the '07 (and satellite era) anomaly record within a few days.
The corresponding CT graph is going to look like a 'bag' instead of a 'canyon' this year.

Apocalypse4Real

One factor to consider re: the Laptev. A forecast SLP of 977 mb begins to impact the area by Friday-Saturday.

http://polarmet.osu.edu/nwp/animation.php?model=arctic_wrf&run=00&var=plot001

Jim Williams

Werther, I think there will still be a canyon at the bottom of the bag. Look at the graphs for the seas for the last year, notice where the anomalies head south, and think about the fact the the CAB is still open north of those seas. (Also, the CAB had been filling in for at least a week this time last year.)

Each sea might only add in a tenth or so to the anomaly in October, but there are several looking to do so.

In the end, I think the freeze-up will be just as quick as always, if a little bit late and a little bit less.

Someone mentioned the possibility of the seas freezing up from the shore rather than the CAB, but even then I think the basic shape of the total anomaly will be the same.

Jim Williams

I'm not sure how the characterize a flat bottom rather than a steep bottom, though I'm sure people will know what I mean. I also don't have a good sense of which it will be, though the SST anomalies make me want to say flat.

Will the bottom be flat or steep this year?

Wipneus

Update Sep 20, up (+65k):

2012.7069 -2.4905059 2.2799201 4.7704258
2012.7096 -2.5455823 2.2444446 4.7900267
2012.7123 -2.5824287 2.2379336 4.8203626
2012.7151 -2.5145433 2.3031538 4.8176970

Wipneus

Update Sep 21, up +62k

2012.7096 -2.5455823 2.2444446 4.7900267
2012.7123 -2.5824287 2.2379336 4.8203626
2012.7151 -2.5145433 2.3031538 4.8176970
2012.7178 -2.4447763 2.3654904 4.8102665

Wipneus

Update Sep 22, up +47k5:

2012.7123 -2.5824287 2.2379336 4.8203626
2012.7151 -2.5145433 2.3031538 4.8176970
2012.7178 -2.4447763 2.3654904 4.8102665
2012.7206 -2.4334037 2.4129515 4.8463550

Wipneus

Update Sep 23, up +60k5:

2012.7151 -2.5145433 2.3031538 4.8176970
2012.7178 -2.4447763 2.3654904 4.8102665
2012.7206 -2.4334037 2.4129515 4.8463550
2012.7233 -2.4002821 2.4734249 4.8737073

Wipneus

Update Sep 24, area +23k, anomaly up +7k,

2012.7178 -2.4447763 2.3654904 4.8102665
2012.7206 -2.4334037 2.4129515 4.8463550
2012.7233 -2.4002821 2.4734249 4.8737073
2012.7261 -2.4074554 2.4960780 4.9035335

Apocalypse4Real

Wipneus,

Thanks for continuing to post your info daily.

Wipneus

Update Sep25, up 37k7. Anomaly +7k

2012.7178 -2.4447763 2.3654904 4.8102665
2012.7206 -2.4334037 2.4129515 4.8463550
2012.7233 -2.4002821 2.4734249 4.8737073
2012.7261 -2.4074554 2.4960780 4.9035335
2012.7288 -2.4142034 2.5337086 4.9479122

Wipneus

Update Sep 26, up 35k, anomaly -4k7 (in absolute sense):

2012.7233 -2.4002821 2.4734249 4.8737073
2012.7261 -2.4074554 2.4960780 4.9035335
2012.7288 -2.4142034 2.5337086 4.9479122
2012.7316 -2.4189425 2.5689600 4.9879022

Wipneus

Update Sep 27, up 34k3, anomaly -9k7 (in absolute sense):

2012.7261 -2.4074554 2.4960780 4.9035335
2012.7288 -2.4142034 2.5337086 4.9479122
2012.7316 -2.4189425 2.5689600 4.9879022
2012.7343 -2.4286900 2.6032345 5.0319242

crandles

Antarctic reaches 3rd highest day

2007.7206 1.1396104 16.2323818 15.0927715
2007.7233 1.1240095 16.2156487 15.0916395

2012.7316 1.1447686 16.2041264 15.0593576

only 28k from highest day.

Highest antarctic anomaly is +1.84 versus -2.63 for arctic. Not only is 1.84 rather smaller than 2.63, the Antarctic is rather symetrical with negative anomaly reaching 1.82 almost same as 1.84

2007.9672 1.8403077 8.4898138 6.6495061
1980.3726 -1.826151 6.0354848 7.8616357

Arctic is rather less symmetric with range 1.36 to -2.63

2007.8 -2.6349814 4.4081578 7.043139
1987.7616 1.3601073 7.0889764 5.728869

I suspect that reflects accelerating pattern of Arctic not being present in Antarctic.

Jim Williams

May I suggest that comparing Arctic minima to Antarctic maxima is like comparing apples to apple cores?

What was the Antarctic anomaly last March?

Wipneus

update Sep 28, up 3k, anomaly down 53k5:

2012.7288 -2.4142034 2.5337086 4.9479122
2012.7316 -2.4189425 2.5689600 4.9879022
2012.7343 -2.4286900 2.6032345 5.0319242
2012.7369 -2.4821250 2.6062055 5.0883307

JohnC

The area has been below the old record for 40 days. And still counting.

Seke Rob

As said in wrong thread, the anomlay again went below -2.5 Million

2012.7316 -2.4189425 2.5689600 4.9879022
2012.7343 -2.4286900 2.6032345 5.0319242
2012.7369 -2.4821250 2.6062055 5.0883307
2012.7397 -2.5004177 2.6334040 5.1338215

L. Hamilton

Tracking the anomaly:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/sea_ice_N_anomaly_to_date.png

Seke Rob

Like this chart, with just a nitpick... the baseline years are not noted anywhere [1979-2008] (Which is "friendly" baseline since it includes 2007.]

The glossy variation: http://bit.ly/CTAR02

(Photobucket continues to aged copies to portions of the world)

Seke Rob

More explicitly, the red 365 rolling average line in the CTAR02 graph in a bar chart.

http://bit.ly/CTARCA

As of the 27th, this matches 2011 for the same date, from here on, new territory being explored, no doubt.

L. Hamilton

"Like this chart, with just a nitpick... the baseline years are not noted anywhere [1979-2008] (Which is "friendly" baseline since it includes 2007.]"

Thanks for the suggestion, Rob. I just added a baseline note to the caption. As you say, Photobucket might/might not let you see the update right away.

Your graphs are real works of art compared with my minimalist visions. I could imagine Edward Tufte liking your information-rich graphics, but maybe John Tukey preferring simple can't-miss-the-main-point displays.

Seke Rob

Ctrl-F5 was enough to get the extended chart title to appear. :thumbsup smiley:

Wipneus

Update Sep 30, up 63k, anomaly up 15k

2012.7343 -2.4286900 2.6032345 5.0319242
2012.7369 -2.4821250 2.6062055 5.0883307
2012.7397 -2.5004177 2.6334040 5.1338215
2012.7424 -2.4857094 2.6967959 5.1825051

Bfraser

Oh, discussing nits reminds me, on the Rob's Masie spaghetti plot there is an extraneous "13) Baltic Sea" in the lower left hand corner of the map.

Seke Rob

Bfraser, yes, I put it there and forgot about it. Now it´s same color as the Baltic plot line and shifted a bit. Did not do as much this year as 2011 :D

For those keeping eye on on the globe as a whole and the interesting discussions on why the Antarctic [might?] be showing extent growth [lots more 2C sooner freezing sweet water run-off from the shelves and the thick calving keeping the summer minima up, and thus winter maxima, and of course, snow is sweet too and there's more falling, not only on the ice], the latest combo plots:

CT-Atmos area: http://bit.ly/CTGB01

NSIDC extent: http://bit.ly/NSGL01

Seke Rob

The Antarctic's cooperation with denialoland was short-lived... click links above to see how the bottom is falling out... anomaly sans equal building. The data last 4 days:

CT-Arctic:
2012.7369 -2.4821250 2.6062055 5.0883307
2012.7397 -2.5004177 2.6334040 5.1338215
2012.7424 -2.4857094 2.6967959 5.1825051
2012.7452 -2.4796035 2.7632315 5.2428350
Antarctic: Almost 500K anomaly gone in 4 days... how broken up was that [rotten?] ice? Concentration data from NSIDC due in under a week may given an indicator.

2012.7316 1.1447686 16.2041264 15.0593576
2012.7343 1.1654477 16.2217293 15.0562811
2012.7369 1.0325397 16.0858021 15.0532627
2012.7397 0.8711884 15.9102163 15.0390282
2012.7424 0.6993837 15.7249889 15.0256052

The Globe, of which we've really only got one... follwing the Antarctic, an anomaly hike of 350K, noting that the CT Antarctic data is always 1 day behind the Arctic. Don't know the reason.

2012.7316 -1.2741688 18.7730866 20.0472546
2012.7343 -1.2632374 18.8249645 20.0882015
2012.7369 -1.4495864 18.6920071 20.1415939
2012.7397 -1.6292305 18.5436211 20.1728516
2012.7424 -1.7863262 18.4217854 20.2081108

FrankD

Rob, perhaps I misunderstood you, but the Antarctic Ice isn't "rotten" - its first year ice, so it's too young for that.

The pack around Antartica is loose at the margins. I haven't been watching it avidly, but it seems to have been compacted on the margin facing the eastern Pacific over the last few days (at least, at present, it is high-concentration ice almost to the pack edge). Would read too much into it, myself.

Jim Williams

Not sure how to put this question delicately.....what is the Antarctic blog equivalent to this one?

(I still say discussing Antarctic maxima at the time of Arctic minima is wrong. Antarctic minima has shown a very slight rise; which might be largely due to increased ice stream velocity -- though I'm not nearly as well versed on that pole.)

Seke Rob

Good to know... "loose at the margin", but then what was the FYI percent in the Arctic come to think of that? Maybe it was that ripping circumpolar current going at 2km hour that increased the extent... or it is the shelves calving and increased melt water run off reducing surface salinity being presently discussed [I deem to be the best yet as explanation].

Anyways... the NSIDC data was quick to appear.

Some record, extent: ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Sep/S_09_plot.png

2007 9 Goddard S 19.25 15.29 79.4%
2008 9 Goddard S 18.50 14.31 77.4%
2009 9 Goddard S 19.20 14.99 78.1%
2010 9 Goddard S 19.22 14.32 74.5%
2011 9 NRTSI-G S 18.90 14.38 76.1%
2012 9 NRTSI-G S 19.39 15.23 78.5%

Not a concentration record, not an Area record either.

Someone commented on earthquake impact of 3/11. Scientists actually ran for their satellite imagery and data before hand and observed how the, I think 1 foot wave, that arrived there had a noticeable impact.

Artful Dodger

Hi Jim,

Patrick 'Logicman' Lockerby has announced an intention to cover Antarctica during the coming Southern Summer:

http://www.science20.com/chatter_box/blog/its_great_be_back-94098

"I was sorry to miss all the excitement over the Arctic this season. If I remain able to type I hope to make up for that by writing about the Antarctic. It's going to be an exciting summer down there also! Just for starters, here's the latest PIG news..."

Cheers,
Lodger

Jim Williams

Thanks Lodger.

Wipneus

Okt 2, +58k, anomaly -10k7:

2012.7397 -2.5004177 2.6334040 5.1338215
2012.7424 -2.4857094 2.6967959 5.1825051
2012.7452 -2.4796035 2.7632315 5.2428350
2012.7479 -2.4903851 2.8211446 5.3115296

Wipneus

Okt 3, +84k, anomaly +7.6:

2012.7424 -2.4857094 2.6967959 5.1825051
2012.7452 -2.4796035 2.7632315 5.2428350
2012.7479 -2.4903851 2.8211446 5.3115296
2012.7507 -2.4827724 2.9050195 5.3877921

idunno

So CT area is now greater than the previous record from 2011.

It spent 44 days in record low territory - about a month and a half, or 1/8 of the whole year.

Jim_pettit

--Cryosphere Today Arctic sea ice area gained 109k km2 yesterday, the largest daily gain since March 20, and the twelfth century increase of 2012.

--As noted above by idunno, 2012 area spent 44 days below the previous record annual minimum set just last year. By comparison, 2011 area was only below the previous record minimum (2007's) for a single day.

--2012 SIA was below 3 million km2 for 49 days. 2011 spent just 12 days below that mark.

--2012 SIA has now held the daily minimum record for 96 consecutive days, and 112 of the last 117.

--The 2012 negative anomaly has been larger than 2 million km2 for 63 consecutive days. That stretch has included 10 of the 20 largest negative anomalies on record.

idunno

Looking at the bottom of the graph:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

2012 does not seem to me to be especially broad in the beam, compared to several recent years.

While I defer to the expertise of the Daily Mail in this area, IMHO 2012 does not have a "fat arse".

Jokes aside, before this year's data, with several years readings hovering for a long time in the range of 3.1M-2.9M, it was possible to imagine that there was some important threshold there, below which it was difficult to pass. This year's data suggests not.

Wipneus

Irregular update Oct 8, approaching the final? 2012 domino:

2012.7534 -2.4685204 3.0142555 5.4827757
2012.7561 -2.4674611 3.1010351 5.5684962
2012.7589 -2.5023038 3.1507795 5.6530833
2012.7616 -2.5110347 3.2178345 5.7288690
2012.7644 -2.5438836 3.2639320 5.8078156

In 2007:
2007.7644 -2.3278396 3.4799759 5.8078156

13 day before abs. min. anomaly:
2007.8000 -2.6349814 4.4081578 7.0431390

idunno

Also, so far uncommented on as far as I recall, and as witnessed by this graph:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/sea.ice.anomaly.timeseries.jpg

there has been a massive record in the range of the CT anomaly this year. From close to zero to under -2.5M.

At a guess, the average range has been more like 1.2M, ocsasionally as low as 0.6M (in 2000).

Recent years seem to exhibit much wilder swings, and 2012 is a record year for unstable, chaotic behaviour by a large margin.

Seke Rob

Yes, the chart was previously commented on... it's a part of a bigger chart as can be seen right top where the normal area plot comes through the top.

What we have ATM is that the Jan.1-present joined the 365 rolling average and is now lowest ever [in modern history] since a few days

Jan.1-present: http://bit.ly/CTARCA
365 Rolling Avg: http://bit.ly/CTAANM

We're kind of waiting on the all time anomaly for the Arctic and Global to happen.

Wipneus

2012.7589 -2.5023038 3.1507795 5.6530833
2012.7616 -2.5110347 3.2178345 5.7288690
2012.7644 -2.5438836 3.2639320 5.8078156
2012.7699 -2.4731667 3.4188128 5.8919797

One day is missing, and I think a mistake is made in the average area (4th column):

2011.7699 -1.7374508 4.2537479 5.9911985

Anomaly should be about -2.57

Jim_pettit

A quick note about CT SIA: the dataset wasn't updated yesterday (for .7671), but was updated this morning to include only .7699. That's not an issue. However, at the moment, the line for 2012.7699 contains the average anomaly for day .7671 (not .7699 as it should), and thus reflects an incorrect anomaly for the day of -2.4731667. The actual anomaly as calculated against the average for .7699 is -2.5723857, making it the eighth largest ever in the CT SIA record.

I hope that made sense... ;)

Wipneus

Yes, I sent an email on the issue.

Neven

Very sharp, gentlemen. The issue has been fixed. Just one or two slow days and the anomaly record is in the bag.

Wipneus

I received a reply, the issue is now corrected:

2012.7616 -2.5110347 3.2178345 5.7288690
2012.7644 -2.5438836 3.2639320 5.8078156
2012.7671 -2.5474968 3.3444827 5.8919797
2012.7699 -2.5723860 3.4188128 5.9911985

Jim_pettit

@Wipneus: excellent. Thanks!

@Neven: I believe you are correct, sir!

Seke Rob

Interestingly, MASIE shows "ice free" periods as below:

Kara:
2011 Never Ice Free
2012 Sep.10-present
Barentsz
2011 Sep.21-Oct.3
2012 Aug.18-Present

Absent numerical data, the MASIE plots for 2008-2010 do not show even remotely such conditions as what's now appearing in 2012.

Atmos shows just very little in those seas.

BTW, read somewhere last week that SHELL, notwithstanding what they said before, is now simultaneously drilling in 2 locations in the Arctic.

Wipneus

Oct 12:

2012.7671 -2.5474968 3.3444827 5.8919797
2012.7699 -2.5723860 3.4188128 5.9911985
2012.7726 -2.5548999 3.5111563 6.0660563
2012.7754 -2.5848627 3.5689819 6.1538448

The next week the mean area increases on average by a century. A perfect setting for big anomaly drops.

Artful Dodger

Hi Folks,

The 2012 sea ice area (SIA) anomaly is currently -273 K km² below 2007 on the same day.

In 2007, SIA Anomaly decreased an additional 320 K over the next 9 days.

If that pattern repeats this years, we will see a minimum SIA anomaly around -2.9 M km² on 2012.8000

That's more than Western Australia and the state of Victoria combined.

Just sayin'.

Werther

Lodger, hi,

The minimum anomaly will probably fall in the coming days. But refreeze is surprisingly fast and similar to what we saw last year.

Referring to my calculations yesterday evening on skin surface temps first week of October, it looks like Chris Reynolds is right in his assumption that there's not as much excess heat in the top sea layer as in October 2007.

After having chewed this, I acquired a new perspective on the bizarre 2007 downfall. If a similar configuration might happen again next year, there'll be no shred of ice left.

Under accelerating forcing, effects are manifested in different aspects/locales of our biosphere. Arctic Sea Ice being one of these, is bumping down to its demise.
Others, like the GIS, the Great American Plains ASO, took a less expected blow.

Wipneus

RECORD ANOMALY RECORD

2012.7754 -2.5848627 3.5689819 6.1538448
2012.7781 -2.6094835 3.6361835 6.2456670
2012.7808 -2.6235602 3.7192922 6.3428521
2012.7836 -2.7054472 3.7270412 6.4324884

6 days before 2007

2007.8000 -2.6349814 4.4081578 7.0431390

Jim Pettit

As Wipneus correctly noted, a new CT SIA anomaly record has been set. 2012 has now seen 76 days with a negative anomaly greater than 2 million km2, including the last 74 consecutive days. (Only 130 days in the entire CT SIA record have seen a negative anomaly greater than 2 million km2.) During this ongoing 74-day stretch, 11 of the 20 largest anomalies have occurred, including the first, fourth, sixth, and ninth largest ones (The remainder of the top ten occurred in October 2007).

2012 daily SIA has set a new daily record minimum for the last 107 consecutive days, and 123 of the past 128.

L. Hamilton

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/sea_ice_N_anomaly_to_date.png

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