Record dominoes 4: DMI sea ice extent

There are several scientific organisations that keep an eye on the Arctic sea ice cover and put out graphs to inform us of the amount of ice that is left. You can see most, if not all, of them on the ASI Graphs webpage. I expect the record on most of these graphs to be broken in weeks to come.

---

If I were addicted to records, I'd have OD-ed by now. Out of the approximately 9 sea ice extent and area graphs on the ASI Graphs page, 4 have broken their record so far. After Uni Bremen extent, Arctic ROOS area, Cryosphere Today sea ice area (big one), we have a new sea ice domino: Danish Meteorological Institute sea ice extent. DMI uses a 30% threshold instead of the more habitual 15% (meaning every grid cell containing a concentration higher than 30% gets counted for total extent).

Larry Hamilton sent me graphs and numbers:

     Year | min(totaldmi)
----------+--------------
     2005 |         4.138
     2006 |         4.336
     2007 |        3.0523
     2008 |        3.4441
     2009 |        3.8455
     2010 |        3.6416
     2011 |        3.3207
     2012 |        3.0311

Thanks, Larry!

As a bonus I've made an animation of the daily DMI graphs from the moment that cylcone hit to the new minimum:

The next domino might take a bit longer than the previous ones, but it will fall. And then another, and  another, and... I think they're all going to fall. It's 2007 all over again, but then worse.

Comments

[AmbiValent]

DMI's graph seems a bit odd to me... when all the other graphs are moving downwards, DMI seems to stand still, and then jerks down the double amount on the next day. Is the movement really just too small too see, or is it zero because when adding up the numbers those numbers weren't updated yet?

[Sheridanmayo]

Thanks Larry and Neven.

[Espen Olsen]

IJIS: 4,405,156 km2

[Espen Olsen]

This is a re post:
Here is the new ice report from DMI who expect a new record this season. Ice thickness within 100 kms from the Pole is around 1 meter, much less than earlier years!

Use Google for translation from Danish:

http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/havisen_i_arktis_pa_vej_mod_ny_bundrekord

[Neven]

Ambivalent, there's no use in comparing graphs on a day-to-day basis. There are so many difference between algorithms, averages used (some use a 2-day average, some 3-day, some 5, some 9), satellite sensors, frequencies, the way they handle clouds, melt ponds, etc, etc...

Thanks for that DMI info, Espen!

[Peter Ellis]

Next domino is IJIS, I think, and that will be by the end of this week.

[Peter Ellis]

Though NSIDC may yet beat it to the punch. Both of them by the end of this week, I'd say. Possibly even by Friday.

[Neven]

Let's hope so, Peter. I'm going on a 2/3-week holiday on Sunday and it'd be nice to have all the records in the pocket by then.

It'd be even nicer to have the ice recovering because the entire western world decides to become serious and mature, and take its responsibility. But okay...

[Glenn Tamblyn]

Have a good holiday

Sadly, I think it will be the other way around. The western world won't get serious and mature for a while yet, although loss of the sea ice will be an extra prod in that direction. On the positive side, Sea Ice will be one of the earlier facets to recover when CO2 levels are eventually lower. Sure going to recover quicker than land ice sheets for example.

[Glenn Tamblyn]

One more number that will come out while you are on holiday, and bound to be a record as well. PIOMas.

[NeilT]

Total silence on this from Watts. He's still having a rant at McKibben on Atlantic Hurricanes and going on about the low temp records.....

He's on a one track vertical mission and looks like reality is in the back under the baggage of his ego...

[Seke Rob]

The JAXA prelim to final had a 51K upward adjustment, rather large compared to previous days. They also just hurdled the 10 million decline since the annual maximum day. The historical standing depicted in http://bit.ly/JAXDSM , 1 million more decline than any previous year at this date. With 10 days to go and a record minimum of 4254531 (2007), that's 200K to go from current Aug.20.12 Final... unlikely not August for the domino to drop.

[Artful Dodger]

4 days to an IJIS record if we maintain the last 7-day rate-of-loss. 7 days to a record if the daily average drops to match the lowest day in the last 7. And 10 days if the avg drops to match the lowest day yet in August 2012.

Instead, if we match the avg rate-of-loss for any of the top three years from Aug 21 to min SIE, all three scenarios take IJIS SIE below 4 Million km^2. In fact, if we just match the avg rate-of-loss for the 2000's, then IJIS still goes to 4.0 M km^2

Nonetheless, for the period Aug 1st thru Aug 21, 2012 has shown the highest avg rate-of-loss in the IJIS record. I don't see how we stay above 4 Million in any circumstance.

Unless there is a premature end to the melt season, I think 2012 continues to, what, 3.8 M? The compaction potential is huge right now. With just 2.8 M km^2 of thin ice out there, a strong and steady wind would really round up the goats ( from Denistan ;^).

[Downil1]

Look at the predicted ice transport through Fram strait the next couple of days!

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrf_nowcast_anim30d.gif

[k eotw]

The last 7 day rate of loss in IJIS is quite high. On one hand that would suggest the domino fall is imminent, and I strongly think it is, but on the other-hand I am always suspicious when fast declines happen that the decline may be getting a little ahead of itself and a subsequent correction in the form of a prolonged stall in decline is due. Quite close to September now so a prolonged stall in decline could possibly keep the domino from falling.

And yet all other years decline from this point, so it would be unusual if 2012 didn't decline more. But then 2012 is an unusual year.

[Artful Dodger]

The Integrated Ice Data Center at UniHamburg is predicting 3.5 M, +/- 0.1 M km^2 for Sep min SIE:

ftp://ftp-projects.zmaw.de/seaice/prediction/2012/estimate.png

Their methodology generates a revised prediction each day. The prediction history for 2012 is here:

ftp://ftp-projects.zmaw.de/seaice/prediction/2012/prediction_timeseries.png

[Artful Dodger]

More good news for amateur modelers from UniHamburg:

Cloud fraction from RADAR/LIDAR

"As a first step towards providing data about clouds, ICDC now offers data about cloud cover: vertical profiles of the cloud fraction as well as low level, mid level, high level, and all level, i.e. total, cloud fraction. The data set has been derived from sensors of the two A-Train satellites CALIPSO and CloudSAT and is available under http://icdc.zmaw.de/calipso-cloudsat_cloudcover.html. The data comes with monthly temporal and 2 degree spatial resolution for 2006-2011."

Should provide good optical depth values for estimating surface insolation.

[Sheridanmayo]

CT SIA = 2.742 at latest update.
Anomaly = -2.359
still firmly on a downward trajectory...

[Efredri]

With the latest update CT area is for the first time less than half (49,8%) of the highest minimum, 5,50771 in 1980.

[Apocalypse4Real]

Thanks to Larry for the numbers and graphs, and Neven for posting.

Espen, your DMI report supports the Godiva2 generated ice thickness model. While there seems to be higher ice concentration towards the pole, it has a wide band of about 1 meter ice.

https://sites.google.com/site/apocalypse4realseaice2012/home/sea-ice-concentration-and-thickness-comparison

A4R

[Kevin McKinney]

Great info here, once again. Albeit not so cheerful--though perhaps some folks will wake up a bit--I'm hoping, hoping...

[Mdoliner43]

What can they do if they wake up? Surely it's too late now.

[Artful Dodger]

First Rule of Holes:
When you're in a hole, the best thing to do is stop digging.

Second Rule:
The best way to get someone to stop digging in his heels is to dig out the sand around him.

[opensheart]

Forgive me, but a previous post mentioned the subject of bumper stickers. I now have a small collection of climate change stickers up at http://www.zazzle.com/hobertshouse
further suggestions welcome.

[Jim_pettit]

A quick CT SIA update:

--With yesterday's unexpected century loss--the 47th of the year--area is now 163k km2 below last year's record. That's an area larger than the U.S. state of Georgia, and there are still roughly three weeks left in the 2012 melt season.

--2012 has moved into first on the all-time ice area loss list, having already dropped 10.967 million km2. (http://iwantsomeproof.com/extimg/sia_8.png)

--2012 is also in first place in terms of percentage of maximum ice lost. With yesterday's decrease, this year has lost an incredible 80% of what it had back in the spring. (http://iwantsomeproof.com/extimg/sia_9.png) By way of contrast,

--As pointed out by Efredri, for thr first time in the record, CT area is less than half of what it was at its highest minimum back in 1980.

--It's almost a boring statistic at this point, but, well, here you are anyway: 2012 has been in first place for 53 consecutive days now, and 69 of the last 74.

--This year's SIA anomaly has been below -2 million km2 for 20 consecutive days, or more than a quarter of the 76 days in the record at or below that mark. The current anomaly is the 16th largest in the record, and the largest since 27 October 2007.

[L. Hamilton]

Regarding the first domino, Uni Bremen, Neven mentioned in his original post that their data are provisional and not fully comparable to earlier years. UB have just posted a cautionary note on their own website as well:

"A note of caution: In the diagrams below, the Arctic sea ice extent after mid-August, 2012, is below last year's minimum. While the drastic decline since early August is confirmed by other sources, the absolute value is not. It can be a consequence of the rather simple time series adaptation method used. While the result was in agreement with other data over most of 2012, the discrepancy has grown since early August. The issue is being investigated. This is probably not a record (yet)!"

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/ssmis/index.html

[Espen Olsen]

Petermann 2012,

The Renegade Ice Island is now within a distance of 10 kms from Hans Ø. Imagine being on this island of pure rock, measuring approx. 1,3 km inn diameter and being 1,3 km2 in total area. The ice island is now approx 110 km 2.
Would the collision be felt being on the the island?
If it got split in the collision it could be shared by Greenland/Denmark and Canada!

[Seke Rob]

More charts from the kitchen, NSIDC data based. An integration of Annual Maximum, Minimum, Trend, Dates and some stuff discovered in the sink itself: http://bit.ly/NSARMX Visually, the linear regression for Maximum and minimum is diverging... as if we did not know that already, but this is from one house, and not a CAPIE from 2 different processing entities.

Latest update through the 21st, the below reductions are needed to let NSIDC-SIE stone fall over

2007 -170,671
2011 -29,301

(A very small change from the 20th).

[Timothy Chase]

Mdoliner34 wrote: What can they do if they wake up? Surely it's too late now.

Its never too late because further delay could always make things much worse, at least on any timescale of inaction in this century.

[Seke Rob]

Re Espen Olsen | August 22, 2012 at 16:03

Presume the white blob in the water and the little dot left of it is Hans & PII-2012 aka your Renegade.

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c03.2012232.terra.1km.jpg

Sensing with instruments [if there are any] is surely in the speed it is moving and how vertical the cliff of Hans goes down to the bottom of the channel. From what you're saying, it's moving west south west re the discussion of a flow going towards the Arctic Basin.

[Chris Biscan]

Jaxa uses windsat with not only lower resolution.

Look at the giant data hole:

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/data/201208/WNDSI20120821IC0.png

Yeah, not gonna be accurate at all.

and will surely be denialist saving grace

[Ecojosh]

Arctic sea ice area is now the 9th largest "country" in the world, dropping below Argentina in area today. Kazakhstan is next in line. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_countries

[Seke Rob]

Re Chris Biscan | August 22, 2012 at 16:20

What's your motive of posting this? You would know well [but you let it hang in the air you dont] there is a 310,000 km^2 hole the respective sats don't cover [out of view]. It's [till now] considered covered i.e. added to the publsihed numbers and thus increasing the totals!

[Seke Rob]

Comparing 2007 & 2011 with 2012 at CT/Atmos for the 8.20.xx looks from way up it's an easy paddle on the Siberian side, but the NWP still substantially obstructed at the Beaufort side of the CAA.

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=08&fd=20&fy=2011&sm=08&sd=20&sy=2012

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=08&fd=20&fy=2007&sm=08&sd=20&sy=2012

Taking half way a 90 south and the alternate route though could work (zoom).

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png

Some new blurp of 6 days ago: http://news.discovery.com/earth/northwest-passage-opening-faster-than-expected-120816.html . The ice looks weirdly shaped/arranged.

[Peter Ellis]

Seke Rob: That's a picture of newly-formed nilas ice in Baffin Bay, from Wikipedia. Got nothing to do with the NWP at all.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Nilas_Sea_Ice.JPG

[Kris]

Chris Biscan wrote.

Look at the giant data hole:

Right.

But it doesn't really matter as it (= the hole) has been there since the very beginning. Always the same standards, so you can compare the years with each other without a problem.

Unlike at Uni-Bremen which still is struggling with it's own standards apparently.

By the way, IARC=JAXA at 4.405.156 km2 now, against about 4,482.000 km2 yesterday August 21th.

So the extend still is shrinking at a high pace. Less than 300.000 km² to go, and record lovers might alreay order some spumante bottles in order to put the stuff into the frig. :-)

[Seke Rob]

Re Peter Ellis | August 22, 2012 at 17:03

I know, was looking for latest NWP news and this one mentioned it, but nothing current, then me eye fell on that interesting arc shaped ice... nilas, the name escaped me. Thx

[Wipneus]

CT's 2.74 10^6 km2 means that now 5 out of 8 options of the August poll are no longer in the game.

Fortunately 78 % the voters did vote for one of the three remaining possible options.

I am afraid the end result will be in the last category (< 2.5) selected by 35% of the voters.

[Seke Rob]

Kris, was in a spumante shop yesterday, looking for some red, the only thing running was the ceiling fan, and the wall thermometer reading 31C. Little more and there's spontaneous PEing.

[Seke Rob]

RE: Wipneus | August 22, 2012 at 17:13

My latest extrapolation has 2.42M residual. There's not much left from past history to take as a base reference. http://bit.ly/CTNHMn

[Jim_pettit]

Wipneus: CT's 2.74 10^6 km2 means that now 5 out of 8 options of the August poll are no longer in the game.

Fortunately 78 % the voters did vote for one of the three remaining possible options.

I am afraid the end result will be in the last category (< 2.5) selected by 35% of the voters.

The smallest loss of ice for any year from this day until that year's minimum was 2007's 151k km2. Were that repeated this year, the final would end up just under 2.6 million. On the other hand, a repeat of the largest drop--1989's 974k km2--would leave 2012 with just 1.77 km2. (FWIW, 2011 lost 323k km2 after this day; such a drop this year would render a final tally of 2.4 million.) Over the satellite record, the average loss from this day to minimum has been 397k, while over the past ten years that average has been 486k.)

Down and down and down it goes, and where it stops, no one knows...

[Wipneus]

Seke Rob, Jim:

The last slot is actually "less than 2.6".
(confused it with my own guestimate of 2.5)

My estimate for 2013 will probably be around 2.25 10^6 km2, hopefully Neven will provide a category - not the lowest - for that.

[idunno]

Hi all,

Sorry to stray off-topic for this thread, but I wanted to recommend this post from Joe Romm:

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/22/727501/arctic-death-spiral-how-it-favors-extreme-prolonged-weather-events-such-as-drought-flooding-cold-spells-and-heat-waves/

The video from Jennifer Francis within it is a very good explanation of the effect of the Arctic on lower latitude weather patterns.

[Werther]

...Down and down and down it goes, and where it stops, no one knows...
Manassas, Jim? Appropriate song.
You may like this one too, from Illegal Stills:
...There's something we gotta do
Something radical, something different...

[Jeffrey Davis]

Surely the record that matters the most for future global warming is the one mentioned above about how long up to this point 2012 has held the position of lowest amount of ice. By this time of year, insolation is low enough that melting ice reflects what has already happened. There's little new energy being stored in the ocean due to albedo change. What ice melts from here forward is pretty much mostly an artifact of wind and weather. Since refreeze to a certain extent is a given -- until temps get dangerously high -- it would be interesting to calculate what is the most amount of heat possible, and to judge a melt season by the percentage of that heat that gets absorbed rather than by what happens at the tail end of the melt season.

[SteveG]

Re: Artful Dodger: "Look at the predicted ice transport through Fram strait the next couple of days!"

Actually, take a look at the Arctic Buoy drift chart (ASI page or available links from the NP Web Cam) which has shown virtually all the buoys drifting towards the Fram St. for months now.

Steve

[Klon Jay]

RE: Steve
http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/maps_daily_northpole.html
It looks as though the buoys slowed down for a bit (the 10-day tails aren't so long) but are picking up again. Interesting, the buoys closest to Greenland are on the move too...

[AmbiValent]

We just never see the ice drift past the Fram since whenever it gets there it's melting quickly.

[Seke Rob]

Re Werther | August 22, 2012 at 19:23

Manassas, Stills, and much alike, Neil Young's Round and Round and Round it goes... it wont be long, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmkqUbCU7xE ... the paper illusion

(for lighter digest, or not)

[Chris Reynolds]

Does anyone know what Fram Strait export was like in May - July 2010?

[Seke Rob]

Haven't, but guess you found/had this one http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL039591.shtml 2003-2008 . Looked it up out of interest. 420 km^3 is one monthly observed.

[Neven]

Does anyone know what Fram Strait export was like in May - July 2010?

Chris, does this help?

May 2010

June 2010

July 2010

From the IFREMER/CERSAT link on the ASI Graphs page.

[Artful Dodger]

SteveG: Surely u mean "Posted by: Downil1 | August 22, 2012 at 12:08". And don't call me Shirley ;^)

To all: For now, IJIS reports based on Windsat, which does have a bigger data hole at the N. Pole. But AMSR2 entered Regular Observation Operations on Aug 10, 2012, so AMSR2 data for the Sep 2012 Minimum will become available retroactively.

NSIDC continues to use the same SSM/I satellite observations for it's sea ice data. It's the NSIDC Sep Avg SIE record which is the benchmark, and the one used for the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook.

But Shirley, you knew that... ;^)

[Chris Reynolds]

Thanks Neven,
I found this paper by Smedsrud, with a timeseries.
http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/5/1311/2011/tcd-5-1311-2011-print.pdf

[Artful Dodger]

Børge Ousland is looking for crew mates to sail to the North Pole in 2013.Anyone care to have a go?

Full Length Canada To North Pole Expedition:
In 2013 we try to gather a strong, motivated and enthusiastic team to challenge this 50 day ordeal. Information upon request.

http://www.ousland.no/trips/north-pole-last-degree/

[John Christensen]

I'm just amazed by how the meltout we are experiencing completely departs from the flattening trend around 3 10^6 km^2 from prior years..
This year is defining a new reality, which most likely will impact subsequent years the same way that 2007 had a lasting impact - but probably even more so this time.. scary

[Kris]

The next storm is paying now his respects to the Bering and Chucksi seas!

Meanwhile frost has returned in Alaska's "interior".

[Chris Biscan]

Guys, different satellites cover different areas.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/data/201208/WNDSI20120821IC0.png

Now look at this:

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/data/201108/P1AME20110821IC0.png

Notice the wind sat hole is FREAKING HUGE.

Filling that will 100% ice coverage is going to alter the results, considering the current system is opening up more water in that hole, it's a big reason Jaxa is currently behind.

And that is just one issue. They also have to use channel 10.7 blended with channel 37 for ice edge and concentration data.

Channel 10.7 spatial footprint is 25km x 38km that is terrible for ice resolution. At least they are still using 12.5 x 12.5 grids instead of 25km x25km grids or Jaxa would be closer to Norsex. But at least norsex uses channel 85 ghz for temperature brightness.

Regardless that is a giant data hole.

[Peter Ellis]

It would matter if Jaxa were doing ice area plots, or if the ice edge retreated far enough that it was actually in the hole (Laptev bite is getting close). Since they're doing extent, it only matters if there's an polynya of < 15% within the hole region. There isn't, at least at present - so it has nothing whatsoever to do with the current standings of different data sources.

[L. Hamilton]

Just realized that in a few more days I will need to rescale the y axis in my DMI curve graph above, to accommodate extent below 3. A very mundane sign of what everyone here knows, that we are entering new territory.

[Neven]

Today I adjusted the August CT SIA and IJIS SIE graphs I use for the ASI update.

2012 is to 2007 what 2007 was to 2005.

[Twemoran]

"2012 is to 2007 what 2007 was to 2005"

Ouch!

Probably OT, but the water in Milne Fjord, behind Milne Ice Shelf might indicate that the now largest remnant of the Ellesmere Ice Shelf could be preparing for an ocean cruise.

It's 3 Fjords west of Ward Hunt and clearly visible on today's MODIS r03c03. What appears to be a crack through the center doesn't look good, and although it's been in place for thousands of years it could well be gone if not this year, certainly in the near future.

Terry

[Artful Dodger]

Here is the IJIS SIE mask at the 2011 minimum, which occurred on 2011/09/09

As you can see, there was no portion of open ocean near the North hole last year as per Peter, upthread.

[Artful Dodger]

Compare with the IJIS SIE mask for today, 2012/08/22. You can see only the 'Laptev Bite' feature has open ocean, and nothing else toward the N. Pole.

[LRC]

Unfortunately we have too many around us, especially in politics who seem to use the famous Sargent Schultz approach to distressing topics as quoted from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hogan%27s_Heroes
"Schultz was quite aware the prisoners were carrying out some sort of mischief, but deliberately ignored it to maintain the status quo. He would just state, "I know nothing","I hear nothing" or "I see nothing", sometimes all three."
Almost always ending with Nothing.
OT reminds me of seeing last night a forum where a guy declared about 30 times that there can not possibly be a drought in the US because he lives in the midwest and he has gotten a lot of rain. Looking at a drought map one can find a tiny little spot of blue in the SW area of the drought area. Any one want to take a guess at his address? You would be down to just a few sq miles of possible territory. It is just scientist creating fictitious maps just like in the Arctic.
Back on topic. Can not remember where I saw it (think it was on this sight) where someone mentioned the possibility that as more clear water is exposed in the Arctic we could be in for more cyclones that could possibly run into lasting for weeks. Have the oil companies built into their equations for their oil platforms that kind of weather pattern?

[LRC]

Some have wondered where the media has been? Huffington Post has pulled in a reasonably good post on what is going on right now and included a fairly good slideshow to let people know how their lives will be changed in the next few decades or less.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/22/arctic-sea-ice-record-low_n_1821550.html#slide=1211930

[Neven]

Have the oil companies built into their equations for their oil platforms that kind of weather pattern?

Excellent question, LRC. I have often wondered about this too. If the ice goes, I hope that at least it will make oil exploration too risky/expensive in the Arctic, but it might take large-scale protests like we saw/see for Keystone XL. I will probably do a piece on this when the melting season is behind us.

[Michael Fliss]

Lodger,

The Laptev Bite is looking pretty ratty:

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r04c04.2012235.terra.1km

A Lincoln Nibble has developed:

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c03.2012234.terra

[Fairfax Climate Watch]

Yes indeed it does look very bad.

[Chris Biscan]

that is what I was wondering. There is clouds there, but it looks terrible, I thought there would be more open water by now.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r04c04.2012236.terra

That opening you see there us opening up under the large Jaxa hole.

Maybe it won't end up open water, but now there is sunlight there which is still strong enough with those 2-5C 850s to add heat to water and melt ice.

[Rob Dekker]

Domino 2 (Arctic Roos sea ice area) fell already, but it taking another nose dive :
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_area.png

Neven, this is NOT the right time to take vacation. This melting season is making history and is not over yet, blows all model projections out of the water, is largely ignored by main stream media, and to make things worse : there is not even a clearly identifiable 'weather' reason for the 2012 mega-melt.

Sorry for the pressure, but we need your reports while history is made in the Arctic...

[Artful Dodger]

Meh, just open up the threads with a Post for each potential record, Neven. We'll fill in the data. Enjoy your time with family, it will never come 'round the same way again!

Cheers,
Lodger

[Rob Dekker]

NSIDC daily extent record was set on September 14, 2007, at 4.16070.
We are currently running a whopping 580 k below the 2007 line :

2007, 08, 21, 4.91775,
2012, 08, 21, 4.33137

which makes the Hamburg projections (thanks lodger!) for a minimum of 3.6 rather realistic.

[Artful Dodger]

Year	dAVG	dSIE	SIE-9Sep
2008	-47,558	-625,155	3,629,376
2011	-39,465	-471,406	3,783,125
2010	-38,742	-457,656	3,796,875
2007	-32,105	-331,562	3,922,969
2009	-30,518	-301,405	3,953,126
2000sAvg	-26,657	-228,047	4,026,484
2002	-26,439	-223,906	4,030,625
90sAvg	-26,204	-219,437	4,035,094
2004	-23,174	-161,874	4,092,657
2003	-22,985	-158,281	4,096,250
80sAvg	-22,309	-145,437	4,109,094
2005	-14,688	-625	4,253,906
2006	-7,706	132,032	4,386,563
Wtd	-27,581	-245,597	4,008,934
Wt5	-37,678	-437,437	3,817,094

[Artful Dodger]

For the Table in my 10:43 comment above, we take the drop in IJIS SIE from Oct 21 to Sep 9 for each of the periods in the IJIS record. Then we compute the Sep 9 IJIS SIE if sea ice loss proceeds as per that period. Sort the results by the computed Sep 9 SIE, in ascending order of SIE.

The final two rows are 'Wtd', the Weighted Average of all periods, and 'Wt5' which is the Average for only the last 5 years, 2007-2011.

As you can see, there is only ONE scenario, 2006, where IJIS SIE does NOT set a new record by Sep 9. My best guess is 3.82 M km^2 on Sep 9, which represents an 'average' year in the post-2006 era.

Of course, 2012 is not behaving like that so far in August...

[Roman Polach]

JAXA SIE: 4333281

Wow...

[Artful Dodger]

Yup, another -71,875 km^2 off yesterday's prelim SIE.

[martinw]

So I notice (from limited observations over the past week or so) that the prelimimary JAXA number seems to be systematically revised upwards by around 40k one day later. Not a big deal, just a little curious why it is such a consistent offset. Or is my sample just too small?

[Wipneus]

Martin:

The preliminary JAXA number is calculated with data not covering the whole area.
You can observe this at their ice monitor:
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi

Most days only parts on the Beaufort/East Siberia are available for the current day.

Now my guess is that most of the melt takes place there, and is extrapolated to the missing parts to calc the prelim number.
When the next day all that data is available, a positive correction must be made for the melt in other parts is not as extensive.

[martinw]

Thanks Wipneus. That seems entirely plausible.

[crandles]

>"Today I adjusted the August CT SIA and IJIS SIE graphs I use for the ASI update.

2012 is to 2007 what 2007 was to 2005."

Ouch indeed. However NSIDC has 2012 0.59 M Km^2 ahead of 2007 in extent. 2007 was 1.09 M Km^2 ahead of 2005.

On area 2012 is 0.33 M Km^2 ahead of 2007. 2007 was 1.13 M Km^2 ahead of 2005.

Aren't things bad enough without overhyping it?

[Superman]

Rob Dekker,

"This melting season is making history and is not over yet, blows all model projections out of the water, is largely ignored by main stream media,"

If a tree falls in a forest, and there is no one around listening, does it make a sound? Similarly, if an ice melt in the Arctic sets records, and there are no politicians around to listen, does it make an impact?

Romney and Obama are the two main candidates for USA President. Yesterday, the Romney platform on energy was announced. In a nutshell, they are pulling out all the stops to exploit and develop fossil fuels. This is exactly 180 degrees opposed to where we need to go to abate global warming. If the past is any indication of the future, the Obama campaign will move somewhat in the Romney direction on this issue.

So, while these melting records may be interesting (and frightening) from a scientific and research perspective, do they have any relevance to the politicians and public at large?

[LRC]

Aren't things bad enough without overhyping it?
In the numbers game you could right, but if you take it from the point of rewriting what we are finding out about the Arctic ice , it is not overhyping. In 2007 we found out that with the perfect set of events a stable thick ice sheet (at least from our understanding at that time) can have a major collapse. Know we have to understand that Arctic ice is much more fragile then we first believed and that there are forces at play that we do not understand. I believe that if you take what we can learn from what is happening now, and look at Greenland and the Antarctic. We could find out to our horror that what we know think will take 1000 yrs could end up only taking decades. If you remember, the alarmists in 2005 were talking about getting to this point by 2100 at the earliest, and they were given a very rough time.
On another note Hansen is being laughed at by some because he predicted ice free by the end of this season. Well if we had a repeat of 2007 events I do not think there is any question that there would be any ice left. That is what makes it so bad what we are seeing right now.

[LRC]

Note: Forgot the slash to end the quote. Still a noobie at using tags.

[Neven]

2012 is to 2007 what 2007 was to 2005."

Ouch indeed. However NSIDC has 2012 0.59 M Km^2 ahead of 2007 in extent. 2007 was 1.09 M Km^2 ahead of 2005.

On area 2012 is 0.33 M Km^2 ahead of 2007. 2007 was 1.13 M Km^2 ahead of 2005.

Aren't things bad enough without overhyping it?

1. How about percentages, Chris?
2. Don't take me so literally. It's not about the numbers, it's about 'relative'. 2012 is as spectacular compared to 2007, as 2007 was compared to 2005.

It is not overhyping to suggest this is HUGE! It's a factual statement. Really.

Rob, don't worry about the holidays. I have some things prepared, and I'll probably have a 56K connection there, which at least will allow me to read comments.

[Seke Rob]

Someone fixed it.

In the funny [JAXA] number department:

2012 Maximum 14,433,281
2012 8.23 Prlm 4,333,281

A max to now decline of 10,100,000 km square.

NSIDC Extent 4331370 (8.21)
JAXA Extent 4333281 (8.23)

The monthly NSIDC file still says as footnote per July 2012 to the hole that cant be seen:

1) The "extent" column includes the area near the pole not imaged by the sensor. It is assumed to be entirely ice covered with at least 15% concentration. However, the "area" column excludes the area not imaged by the sensor. This area is 1.19 million square kilometers for SMMR (from the beginning of the series through June 1987) and 0.31 million square kilometers for SSM/I (from July 1987 to present). Therefore, there is a discontinuity in the "area" data values in this file at the June/July 1987 boundary.

[Wipneus]

In the funny [JAXA] number department:

2012 Maximum 14,433,281
2012 8.23 Prlm 4,333,281

A max to now decline of 10,100,000 km square.

This was discussed before. All Jaxa numbers are multiples of 156.25, the area of a 12.5 km square.
The numbers look random, but numbers ending with (lots of) zero digits are surprisingly common.

[Jim Williams]

It's early yet, but the DMI Arctic Temperature (post "Summer") is looking a lot like 2007 and not at all like other years post 2000. Probably due to the amount of open water north of 80 degrees.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

[Andrew Borst]

With the extent so low and the large gap west of the LB between the Arctic and Atlantic oceans allowing additional wave energy transfer are there any educated guesses on the effects of additional wave energy.

[Seke Rob]

Re Wipneus | August 23, 2012 at 16:31

Belated wink, the Dutch are good at "hap hap hap" (I just like them falling in line) ;>)

[L. Hamilton]

Updating the Aug 22 original post on Sep 5: DMI extent has continued to edge downward, now more than 400,000 km^2 below the previous record from 2007:

Year | min(totaldmi)
----------+--------------
2005 | 4.138
2006 | 4.336
2007 | 3.0523
2008 | 3.4441
2009 | 3.8455
2010 | 3.6416
2011 | 3.3207
2012 | 2.6186

Or statistically speaking, 2012 extent is now 2.33 standard deviations below the mean (of minimums) for 2005-2010.

[L. Hamilton]

Correction, last sentence should end with "for 2005-2011."

[Seke Rob]

Update of the 4-way extent graph: http://bit.ly/MASDMI . Per Larry's post that last black DMI tip then 2.6186M. JAXA/NSIDC/MASIE are working hard to converge. MASIE is now 900K below 2011 [the insurance companies of non-arctic rated vessel going out there will love it... all that premium they wont have to pay out on... but there's a cyclone on the way]. Wonder if there's a Google map that shows all *assets* that are traveling or is stationary ATM in the Arctic Ocean (read in the Barentsz Observer that the shipping season is not as brash till now.

[Seke Rob]

DMI continues to pitch in... a distinct dippy at the end 30% concentration curve [no numbers], visually lowest point in the year: http://bit.ly/MASDMI

[L. Hamilton]

Yep, DMI bounced just a bit lower.

. list edate total delta in -10/l

+------------------------------+
| edate totaldmi delta |
|------------------------------|
2708. | 01sep2012 2.7068 82.2 |
2709. | 02sep2012 2.6252 -81.6 |
2710. | 03sep2012 2.6473 22.1 |
2711. | 04sep2012 2.6186 -28.7 |
2712. | 05sep2012 2.6178 -.8 |
|------------------------------|
2713. | 06sep2012 2.5681 -49.7 |
2714. | 07sep2012 2.5694 1.3 |
2715. | 08sep2012 2.5658 -3.6 |
2716. | 09sep2012 2.5763 10.5 |
2717. | 10sep2012 2.5449 -31.4 |
+------------------------------+

And NSIDC did too.

. list edate extent delta in -10/l

+------------------------------+
| edate extent delta |
|------------------------------|
10700. | 1Sep2012 3.60776 -81.35 |
10701. | 2Sep2012 3.58558 -22.18 |
10702. | 3Sep2012 3.54015 -45.43 |
10703. | 4Sep2012 3.56411 23.96 |
10704. | 5Sep2012 3.51108 -53.03 |
|------------------------------|
10705. | 6Sep2012 3.48834 -22.74 |
10706. | 7Sep2012 3.57635 88.01 |
10707. | 8Sep2012 3.53345 -42.90 |
10708. | 9Sep2012 3.49977 -33.68 |
10709. | 10Sep2012 3.46646 -33.31 |
+------------------------------+

[Seke Rob]

Larry, are the DMI data trailing the chart, because you have the 5th as last data point, where the web image has an 11th time stamp.

[L. Hamilton]

My last number for DMI (above) is Sep 10. The graph at Photobucket (linked from the daily graphs page here) was updated to Sep 10 this morning, and that's what I see at this link:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/sea_ice_NSIDC_min_to_date.png

Sometimes I don't see the newest graph, even though I just posted it, for reasons having to do (I think) with Photobucket's cache or servers. If it's just my browser, clearing the cache will bring things up to date.

[L. Hamilton]

DMI down -31k for 9/10 and -29k for 9/11, to a new record at 2.52m, more than half a million below 2007.

. table year, contents(min totaldmi)

-------------------------
Year | min(totaldmi)
----------+--------------
2005 | 4.138
2006 | 4.336
2007 | 3.0523
2008 | 3.4441
2009 | 3.8455
2010 | 3.6416
2011 | 3.3207
2012 | 2.5164
-------------------------

Graphically, looks like this:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/sea_ice_DMI_this_date2.png

or this:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/sea_ice_DMI_min_to_date.png

(Those graphs *should* show with 9/11 dates.)