There are several scientific organisations that keep an eye on the Arctic sea ice cover and put out graphs to inform us of the amount of ice that is left. You can see most, if not all, of them on the ASI Graphs webpage. I expect the record on most of these graphs to be broken in weeks to come.
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This used to be the last bastion of fake skeptics who cannot come to terms with what is happening in the Arctic and have to keep misleading till the bitter end (über-conservative IMS is now providing them refuge, like a cardboard box provided shelter to a Pakistani family in 2010's monsoon that wouldn't stop), but Arctic ROOS sea ice extent has fallen too:
Have to rush now, another big domino has fallen: NSIDC daily sea ice extent.
2008 looks more 'wiggly' than other years in this figure. It looks more 'wiggly' than in figures I've seen before. Is this an artifact of this measure of sea ice? Or is this reflecting something special about weather patterns in 2008? General question: is there anything to learn from how steadily or not the ice oscillates between max and min?
Posted by: S Latham | August 25, 2012 at 17:10
That 2008 wiggle is why I've always been a bit cautious with the Arctic ROOS graphs.
Posted by: Neven | August 25, 2012 at 18:22
Earlier I posted (first time ever) about my quest to estimate the solar gain impact of these snow and ice anomolies, on an annual basis. The number is bigger than I imagined, and rather than post that number, I am going to check for help from some former UW Solar Lab alumni from my long ago Master's work, here: http://sel.me.wisc.edu/
My investigation leads me to this conclusion:
Between the 2012 annual actic sea ice anomolies and the northern hemisphere snow cover anomoly, I think we are looking at two dead canaries. I think we are in the midst of a step change in the climate system.
Posted by: Bellemisc | August 25, 2012 at 20:53
But what about the negative feedback of loss of heat in the winter? Stoat has mentioned before that just losing the ice in summer isn't enough - the positive feedback is counteracted.... I've never tried to tally it up, so I'm just asking if you're considering it.
Posted by: S Latham | August 26, 2012 at 08:04
That's one negative against a bunch of factors pushing in the other direction.
Loss of snow cover is both a loss of albedo and the opportunity for water and soil to store more heat for late summer melt.
Likely we'll have El Nino conditions in the Pacific. The Atlantic and the atmosphere will be a bit warmer. Water will open sooner, allowing more fetch and higher wave action.
Winter temps in the Arctic are increasing. CO2 will be higher this winter and next year. Quick transport of heat from water to air may form ice quicker, but warmer air will slow thickening.
(I can only count the inputs, can't put strength values to each.)
Posted by: Bob Wallace | August 26, 2012 at 08:19
Why is the SSMIS Sea Ice Map still showing new 80% areas opening up north of 85 degrees north?
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/ssmis/arctic_SSMIS_nic.png
Posted by: Jim Williams | September 02, 2012 at 22:16