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S Latham

2008 looks more 'wiggly' than other years in this figure. It looks more 'wiggly' than in figures I've seen before. Is this an artifact of this measure of sea ice? Or is this reflecting something special about weather patterns in 2008? General question: is there anything to learn from how steadily or not the ice oscillates between max and min?


That 2008 wiggle is why I've always been a bit cautious with the Arctic ROOS graphs.


Earlier I posted (first time ever) about my quest to estimate the solar gain impact of these snow and ice anomolies, on an annual basis. The number is bigger than I imagined, and rather than post that number, I am going to check for help from some former UW Solar Lab alumni from my long ago Master's work, here: http://sel.me.wisc.edu/

My investigation leads me to this conclusion:

Between the 2012 annual actic sea ice anomolies and the northern hemisphere snow cover anomoly, I think we are looking at two dead canaries. I think we are in the midst of a step change in the climate system.

S Latham

But what about the negative feedback of loss of heat in the winter? Stoat has mentioned before that just losing the ice in summer isn't enough - the positive feedback is counteracted.... I've never tried to tally it up, so I'm just asking if you're considering it.

Bob Wallace

That's one negative against a bunch of factors pushing in the other direction.

Loss of snow cover is both a loss of albedo and the opportunity for water and soil to store more heat for late summer melt.

Likely we'll have El Nino conditions in the Pacific. The Atlantic and the atmosphere will be a bit warmer. Water will open sooner, allowing more fetch and higher wave action.

Winter temps in the Arctic are increasing. CO2 will be higher this winter and next year. Quick transport of heat from water to air may form ice quicker, but warmer air will slow thickening.

(I can only count the inputs, can't put strength values to each.)

Jim Williams

Why is the SSMIS Sea Ice Map still showing new 80% areas opening up north of 85 degrees north?


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