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Seke Rob

Comment: Maybe we best stick to putting the relevant source updates in the appropriate domino thread. Seen the IJIS 4.04M news in 3 threads now... can't keep up. Most dominoes are still listed on the left hand in or below the active post list.

Jim Williams

I've been wondering about the areas of high methane last Fall and SST anomaly this Summer. There's quite a bit of overlap, and I've been thinking about the question of mixing layers through bubbling methane.

Anyone know of any readings of temps and salinity at depth in those areas? (Mostly that line from Beaufort to East Siberian.)

Apocalypse4Real

Somebody putting lead weights on ice?

We are running out of superlatives to describe this process...

Peter Ellis

Jim: I did a back-of-the envelope "smell test" on that a while back (might even have been on this blog), and it failed. Don't recall the figures offhand, but it was something like a single 1cm bubble of gas per square metre per hour. That's not going to mix anything.

Artful Dodger

Hi Jim and Peter,

Yeah, I think the question puts the cart before the horse. The proposed method of clathrate destabilization is by surface mixing bringing heat down to the depths where to methane deposits have frozen.

If the methane is bubbling up, the mixed layer has already reached the sea bottom. The water layer is no longer stratified, and doesn't need any more mechanical agitation to be well-mixed.

Cheers,
Lodger

Seke Rob

NSDIC Update:

2012 8 22 4290620
2012 8 23 4190430
2012 8 24 4089200
2012 8 25 3973320
2012 8 26 3943260

Which puts the 5 days trailing average to 4,097,366 for a final notch in this stone?

Jim Williams

Loger, I was more interested in the mixing as an immediate effect upon ice through churning rather than the longer term greenhouse effects, but I'll assume Peter's estimates were averaged over the localized region rather than the whole basin. If the the local gassification isn't enough to break down the layers then there'll be no immediate effects.

Seke Rob

That's of course NSIDC, not NSDIC

Click: http://bit.ly/NSARMn
Click: http://bit.ly/NSARMX

Artful Dodger

Hi Jim. It's a good question, and one of the myriad potential feedbacks in the Arctic system. I think, events will outpace our knowledge. Cheers!

dabize

Dodger and Peter,

My understanding of the risk of clathrate release posed by AGW was that increased convective overturn might play a role in increasing the rate of warmth penetration on shallow sea floors in the ESAS, Laptev and Kara. Such an increase might even occur just as the result of increased bottom current velocity, since this would destroy thermal boundary layers that would tend to retard melting of the clathrates i.e. the "convection oven" principle.

Is this possible?

I also posted earlier about the possibility that clathrates in some of the shallowest sea floors (in the ESAS mainly) might even see enough increased pressure variation (due to increased storminess) to favor clathrate stabilization.

The problem for non-experts like me with these Ideas is that I have little feel for the context and scale of these contributions - do they pass the "laugh test"?

Espen Olsen

Dabize,

Your ideas are just as good as the "experts", for the time being!

Seke Rob

dabize wrote in snip

...

I also posted earlier about the possibility that clathrates in some of the shallowest sea floors (in the ESAS mainly) might even see enough increased pressure variation (due to increased storminess) to favor clathrate stabilization.


*De*stabilization of course?

dabize

Excuse me, that should read "destabilization" in my last post.

Espen, you are kind and I appreciate it, although I probably don't deserve it. My day job is research in a totally different area of science (cell biology).

That said, its funny how the same kind of issues re conventional wisdom and the "best" people utterly failing to think outside the box keep coming up there as well........

Al Rodger

Hi Lennartvdl,

You say up-thread "Al Rodger, You're right off course," Well, yes I usually am pretty far off course although I suspect you may have wanted to type just a single 'f'. If this were the case, I would point out that your flattery would be misplaced. I am as wrong as everybody else. It is just that I am a stickler for good behaviour & my countless errors and blunders are trained to ask permission before they leave the house to cause trouble. :-)

Re Energy imbalance.
If net forcing rises, if more feedbacks kick in (caused by GHG warming) or if the warming slows (which would reduce feedbacks), the imbalance will grow, thus providing more energy for melting. And one reason warming could slow could be mass iceberg calving, which thus allows for more melting.

Lennartvdl

Hi Al Rodger,

Your suspicion is right, but after hitting the post-button I thought it seemed sort of funny, so glad you take it that way :)

But back to Hansen's concern: what worst-case rate of SLR would you think possible under BAU? Does 80 cm in 15 years sound at all possible to you (so not 4.5 m/century, but 5.3 m/century, as I see now)?

Mark_Steven1

LRC said:

http://www.thearcticinstitute.org/2012/08/where-did-all-ice-go-arctic-ice-extent.html
Has a couple a good interactive IJIS graphes to show what is happening. That slop is still mighty steep.

I just saw that they also have a stand-alone page which has interactive graphs showing daily and monthly ice extent for JAXA/IJIS, NSDIC and PIOMAS.
http://www.thearcticinstitute.org/p/ice-graphs.html

Espen Olsen

It is official:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Espen Olsen

WUWT: Is blaming the storm, just a natural cause!!

Jim_pettit

To supplement Espen's announcement: NSIDC has an article out today about the extent record. A snippet:

Arctic sea ice extent breaks 2007 record low

Arctic sea ice appears to have broken the 2007 record daily extent and is now the lowest in the satellite era. With two to three more weeks left in the melt season, sea ice continues to track below 2007 daily extents.

Arctic sea ice extent fell to 4.10 million square kilometers (1.58 million square miles) on August 26, 2012. This was 70,000 square kilometers (27,000 square miles) below the September 18, 2007 daily extent of 4.17 million square kilometers (1.61 million square miles).

Including this year, the six lowest ice extents in the satellite record have occurred in the last six years (2007 to 2012).

After tracking near 2007 levels through July, the extent declined rapidly. Since then, the loss rate has slowed some, averaging about 75,000 square kilometers (29,000 square miles) per day—equivalent to the size of the state of South Carolina. However, this is still much faster than the normal rate at this time of year of about 40,000 square kilometers per day (15,000 square miles).

Seke Rob

Re Espen Olsen | August 27, 2012 at 18:21

Categorically refuse to enter that site, but someone [with kevlar skin] may want to ask him how that storm could have formed in the first place, presuming he's understanding the basic premiss of how hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons form and the point in time it occurred, and more are occurring. It's simple: Tonino has a serious pathology of L or M, period. Could of course also be a D&K case, in advanced state... but we knew he was going to say that as much as we know for sure that a baby soils the diaper. Now you upset me. Let's put what's popularly referred to in Belgium a "cordon sanitaire" around that place.

Espen Olsen

Just to inform you guys, it cant be true, remember what this boy told us earlier:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-G-ozEvSFVg

Chris Reynolds

Following NSIDC releasing the record broken announcement - the BBC (News 24) has included the news about the Arctic as 3rd item in their 1800 bulletin.

A fair and accurate report pointing the finger at human activities and including Dr Wadhams stating we'll see a fast transition (talking about massive losses in the next 2-3 years).

FWIW I'm largely convinced now that we'll see a virtually sea ice free state (<1M km^2) by 2020 (I had previously thought later next decade). And I am actively looking at physical mechanisms that might mean I agree with Dr Wadhams - massive losses of which this year will only be the first.

Bob Wallace

Chris - do you mean a 'short days' sea ice free state or a all year ice free state?

Things are lined up pretty well to give us a few days of ~ no sea ice in the next year or two. All we need is another year of two of this year's unexceptional weather.

Seke Rob

With MASIE having *lost* another 200K Km^2 and being 435K below same time last year, how can we determine if this domino has fallen [if wanting to entertain this one]?

http://bit.ly/MASIE

So far > 70% of their maximum has gone and their Central Arctic Basin measure is really taking off.

Chris Reynolds

Hi Bob,

Sorry, should have been specific. I mean end of season. Certainly not all year round.

idunno

Newbies here might be interested to read our discussion of the storm referred to on WUWT. It occupies several threads several pages back.

I dare say that the storm took up a similar amount of discussion on WUWT. They must have had a thread up there on this at the time, because they clearly think it is the only thing that explains the disappearance of an area of sea ice about the size of a small continent.

I do occasionally visit WUWT, but I can't remember this thread. Must be getting old.

Al Rodger

Hi Lennartvdl,
Strangely, the SLR difference between BAU v a reduced emissions scenario is not something I've picked up on. Possibly the main difference would be post 2100 (?).
As for the numbers you present, I think I've already said I'm sceptical of multi-metre SLR projections. SLR of 1 - 2 metres per century will be dramatic enough without speculations of some immenant mass ice berg event.
This is Hansen's concern - the effective collapse of ice caps, his doubling periods for ice loss. Indeed the glaciers have speeded up, it is not a linear process & GRACE suggests the net losses from Greenland & Antarctica have doubled within seven years.
Note however, this is the net ice loss. The actual ice flow has speeded up perhaps 30% - it has not doubled.
Hansen is entirely correct to warn of the 2100 rise being far higher than the 0.2 - 0.6 metres quoted by IPCC AR4 and also to emphasise that the rise to 2100 will be exceeded by each following century. He is right to warn of ice sheet disintegration but here I consider the specific mechanisms at play at specific ice sheets should be the point of study, not general mass loss of an area. Thus I would argue that Hansen's projection of 5 m rise by 2100 is too high.
Other studies are clustering in the 1.0-1.5 metre rise by 2100. Add in increased storm surges & wave heights - these are bad enough numbers already.

crandles

>"With MASIE having *lost* another 200K Km^2 and being 435K below same time last year, how can we determine if this domino has fallen [if wanting to entertain this one]?"

2011 minimum was 4302977.96. Don't know about 2007, possibly slightly lower based on 2011 area breaking record but other extent records not being broken.

Anyway still 400k higher than 2011 for last data.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjpGniYbi4andFdrTEZrdGVjaXBfWHpIb2VhNHNrM1E#gid=0

Steve Bloom

Thanks for posting the NSIDC news, Jim. At the end I had a brief reverie involving South Carolina melting. :)

Espen Olsen

Seke Rob:

FYI:

Hi Anthony,
Since you are blaming the record ice loss in the arctic sea, to the storm.
Can you please answer and me this simple question : How did a “tropical cyclone” end up in the Arctic Sea in the first place?

Frankd 1977

It looks like I picked the right category for CT SIA minimum of "under 2.6 million km2" seeing as how its almost there with over 2 weeks of melt left. I've been guessing since the beginning of Aug a minimum of (from a stats standpoint) 2.25 million km2 +/- 150K km2. The high end of my estimate at 2.4 million seems more correct.
As for NSIDC SIE, I guessed 4.0 to 3.8 million km2 because the ice did not seem to be compacting so much. Looks like I will be dead wrong on this poll :)
Do we have any more last minute bets as to SIA and SIE minimums ladies and gentlemen!?

Chris Reynolds

Frank,

CT SIA, around 2.5M km^2.

I'm still betting that from this week it will level.

Espen,

More to the point - CT area anomaly baseline 1980 to 1999,
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8284/7874765920_345d7983d3_o.jpg

The anomaly for CT area has been dropping off a cliff in early June as the ice edge enters the Arctic Basin, it did so this year and has been at records lows since.

The storm had very little to do with it.

Watt's and his peanut gallery are just fumbling around in the dark. Bunch of W....

Seke Rob

Re crandles | August 27, 2012 at 21:09

Thanks for waking me... dozed off ;) Now I did plot 2011/2012 with their data. Very rough, 0.4M to go indeed: http://i137.photobucket.com/albums/q210/Sekerob/Climate/MASIE_2011-Present.png

For prior years have not found a MASIE NH chart for the 2005-2012 period to guide on where they are for the short history. At any rate I've send NSIDC through the MASIE website a data request with some samples of graphs generated with their available data. Who knows it's me lucky day.

Ghoti Of Lod

I'm betting that the message taken from the NASA/NSDIC teleconference today by many is that this year's loss was all due to the storm. They didn't actually say that specifically but they hemmed and hawed and kept talking about how the unusual storm melted so much ice. I will be surprised if most of the reporters don't come away thinking 2012 is unusual because of a single weather event.

Espen Olsen

Yes, from what nursery home did they bring that old bugger.

johnm33

Al Rodger I used to think antarctica would show the big changes first, and with the collapse of the ice shelves around the turn of the century, it started that way.Then it ground to a halt caused, i think, by the vast quantities of 'fresh' water damping down the ocean and allowing an easier refreeze /late melt,but there's still a massive amount of melt going on beneath the ocean surface, of the grounded ice further south than the WAP.
No idea when, but some local weather event will strip the ice from the coast, leaving the ice on northern part of the peninsular, which has the same upturned keel topography as Norway|yawroN, without constraint and a little sunshine and rain in the mountains could see a shocking amount of ice come off in a few days.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b7/AntarcticBedrock.jpg
This blog post talks about the retreat of the grounding line
http://icyseas.org/2012/02/01/pine-island-glacier-ice-island-2012-shoving-off/

Al Rodger

johnm33,
Indeed. When I said specific ice sheets & specific mechanisms, this is the sort of 'stuff' I have in mind. If an entire glacial region could spew out its guts in, what, a decade, less, the crazy 5m/century starts looking rather tame. However, I have yet to hear 'responsible' sources say this 'stuff' is not crazy talk. (Then I haven't specifically heard such sources say there is no geological part of the cryosphere that cannot do this!)

Otto Lehikoinen

Are there any guesses/bets/polls on global ice anomaly? Looks it hit the 8th lowest just yesterday, with some potential to hit the bottom by a wide margin in the coming weeks - 2 months
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.global.anom.1979-2008

SH sea ice is still likely growing (this year) as the average maximum date is still some 3-4 weeks away, but with an early turnaround down there this graph might need an extension of couple of hundred pixels downwards.

Apocalypse4Real

The Godiva2 Arctic Sea Ice Concentration and Thickness are updated through August 26.

https://sites.google.com/site/apocalypse4realseaice2012/home/sea-ice-concentration-and-thickness-comparison

Artful Dodger

Hi A4R, appreciated! Any progress on releasing the latest .kmz files for sea ice concentration. I know a few of us regulars here at the ASI blog would like to make a few measurements in Google Earth ;^)
Cheers,
Lodger

Wipneus

NSIDC continues the dive:

2012, 08, 25, 3.97332
2012, 08, 26, 3.94326
2012, 08, 27, 3.85419

Seke Rob

One of the more advanced things one can do with the Euro 39,99 charting software used here is create live camera shots and zoom them, then superimpose these live-cam shots on top of any place, charts the snapshot was taken from themselves, automatically updating to keep an area of interest in focus. In the below, took the NSIDC data through the values Wipneus above posted and computed the Walt Meier 5 day trailing average for 2012 and put that into a pre-existing chart to get this:

http://i137.photobucket.com/albums/q210/Sekerob/Climate/NSIDCArcticSIEDev1979-present.png

2012 8 25 3973320 4174988 201668
2012 8 26 3943260 4097366 154106
2012 8 27 3854190 4010080 155890

The last column is the trailing values. Difference of the 2 lines presently about 155K... almost through the 4M mark by that measure.

BTW, am contemplating to produce an extent step chart just for NSIDC data, now that we have that current. This would be an homogeneous presentation, where the NSIDC > JAXA have that suspected break effect in 2002. We'll see when that's done... will cost some hours work to realize.

Artful Dodger

Hi folks,

NSIDC Aug 27, 2012 SIE dropped -89K km^2
5-day trailing is avg now 4.010 M km^2

With 4 reporting days remaining in August, it's highly likely September will begin with NSIDC SIE 'in the threes'

Artful Dodger

Hi folks,

Has anyone done an 2012 SIE prediction based on the exponential trend? I know Wipneus has done this for PIOMAS, but I don't recall seeing one for IJIS, NSIDC SIE, or CT SIA.

Cheers,
Lodger

crandles

NSIDC SIE Sept gompertz extrapolation is 4.275

I think exponential is hardly any less (like 4.27)

CT SIA daily min gompertz 2.706

Seke Rob

Where to put it... MASIE seeing the dark ;>) ... another double century

21-Aug-2012 4999105 -18857
22-Aug-2012 5278250 279144
23-Aug-2012 5012113 -266137
24-Aug-2012 5044216 32103
25-Aug-2012 4912252 -131964
26-Aug-2012 4707733 -204519
27-Aug-12 4488836 -218896

crandles

CT SIA daily minimum exponential 2.64

NSIDC daily minimum SIE exponential 3.956

For IJIS, I would suggest record is too short to get reliable estimate or needs work to weight a 10 year average appropiately.

Is this enough?

crandles

NSIDC SIE Sept avg exponential is actually 4.221

L. Hamilton

"Collect the whole set!"

Yet another bar graph, this one showing minimum daily (nrt) NSIDC extent to date:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/sea_ice_NSIDC_min_to_date.png

Apocalypse4Real

Lodger,

KMZ's are still on the "do" list. I am interested in figuring it out... even more now that so many miniumums are getting clobered.

A4R

Espen Olsen

CY area: 2.594km2 anomaly -2.380km2 new low!

johnm33

Al Rodger
I kind of hope its a crazy idea but, if the sea ice constraining the ice around the north of that peninsular goes, it seems within the realms of possibility that the whole north section down to say 68deg could be virtually ice free in one event. Set aside what may happen further south, that's still maybe 1/10th of the ice on the peninsular so 60cm potential SLR rise in a month! Thats what i mean by shocking.
Years ago [20?] i read an article about viking sea maps which had shown 2 gyres one south and one west of the faroes, these had been held in scorn until some bod spotted that these were over [almost] the two submarine waterfalls of arctic waters tumbling into the depths of the atlantic. I've assumed [never a good idea] that the anomolies to the south of svalbard on this http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_anomaly_NPS_ophi0.png are over the same sort of things http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/9232/arcticoceanfloor.jpg and i think of it as the plug hole.
Last week when the latest low was heading through the bering i took a punt that it would head to 150/75N cause a hole north of ellesmere and the anomoly would turn red [from black] Despite the low more or less fizzling out, on todays [28th] chart there's an anomoly more or less where i anticipated [a hole] north of ellesmere and the plug hole has turned red. I think whats happening is a lot of the colder fresher water just below the ice is being drawn out and sucked down. [and replaced with that warmer water from near banks island?]Its looks very similar to what happened after and late in the GAC.

Seke Rob

This ain't real, please tel me it is not. If this spokesman of the NOAA/NSIDC speaks of 0.5M extent to go worst case at a CAPIE of 0.6, that's 0.30M Area to go. My chart only projects to 2.36M ATM to the end, or -0.23M from 2.594M km^2

http://i137.photobucket.com/albums/q210/Sekerob/Climate/CT_SIA_Annual_MinimaProj.png

Jim_pettit
Artful Dodger wrote: Has anyone done an 2012 SIE prediction based on the exponential trend? I know Wipneus has done this for PIOMAS, but I don't recall seeing one for IJIS, NSIDC SIE, or CT SIA.

I threw together a quick CT SIA version I mocked up (using Wipneus layout and color scheme for the sake of continuity). It obviously needs a bit of work, but you can see it at the link anyway. Both the SIA and the SIE version of Wipneus's great graph show how much shallower the area and extent decreases are than that for volume. This is because, obviously, while the ice becomes considerably thinner every year--and therefore less voluminous--it still refreezes in winter, sometimes (such as happened this past winter) with greater area/extent coverage than occurred the preceding year.

http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/7120/a4d092c7ed7e41658a8992f.png

Artful Dodger

Nice work, Jim. It's seems 2012 SIA will be about 1 Stdev below the exponential prediction, and that's fair. Eager to see the SIE chart!

BTW, PIOMAS looks likely to come in real close to the 3,000 km^3 volume predicted by the exponential curve fit. CryoSat2 early results show that Spring 2012 was 900 km^3 below 2011...

Interesting times. History-altering times. Mind-alternating time.

Twemoran

Seke

Had you noticed how closely grouped the min SIA dates have been since 2007, after a much bouncier ride before then.

Sept 8 through 11 would seem reasonable - if this were a reasonable year.

http://i137.photobucket.com/albums/q210/Sekerob/Climate/CT_SIA_Annual_MinimaProj.png

Terry

Seke Rob

Terry, it can't escape the eye and wont eat my hat if this year's SIA minimum falls on the 10th or 11th. Setting this against SIE, they have the usual later/earlier/later. Physics, who knows... it's the sun I tell you, the sun it's always been all along ;>)

Seke Rob

... but to add, with the main pack boundary moving further north, it could skip to an earlier date. We've discussed this a few weeks ago and last year when first publishing the CT-SIA version. The 33 year trend... R2=0.0052

Artful Dodger

Seke Rob wrote "it's the sun I tell you, the sun"

More on this later, but you might be on to something here...

Cheers,
Lodger

Wipneus

Jim:

I threw together a quick CT SIA version I mocked up (using Wipneus layout and color scheme for the sake of continuity)

I think that helps, keeping the colors the same. I am not that happy with this one, just using a standard R color set, so if you want to improve I could change mine.

Now about the exponential fit. I fit to a three parameter function A+B*exp(C*t). That means there is no maximum (or minimum).
Some of the curves you draw do max (oktober is most pronounced)

What fit have you used?

Seke Rob

Got a reply from MASIE on the request for back data:

Hi Robert,

We don't archive the MASIE data for distribution because it is not meant to be used in a time series (it is akin to an operational product for maritime activities where source and analysis of the data can vary.) Our Sea Ice Index is to be used for long term comparisons. However, there are some charts available for MASIE: http://nsidc.org/data/masie/masie_plots.html

The Sea Ice Index can be found at:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/

Regards,

We can see from the regional plots referred to in the answer, that they use archived data to compare all the years they've been operating. It is how it is.

Wipneus

NSIDC:

2012, 08, 26, 3.94326
2012, 08, 27, 3.85419
2012, 08, 28, 3.80019

Wipneus

Trailing 5 day average now below 4: 3.932

Seke Rob

So that's that... an anomaly of -3.203 million km^2 on day 241 or -45.7% from the 1979-2000 base: http://i137.photobucket.com/albums/q210/Sekerob/Climate/NSIDCArcticSIEDev1979-present.png

5 Day trailing 132K up from the daily number... barely visible even with the zoomed in frame.

Seke Rob

Then there is the 33 years *earliest* date that NSIDC-SIE bottomed out at 9.2 (Sep.2), but opposed to SIA, there is a small trend on the date this occurs, small that is.

http://bit.ly/NSARMn
http://bit.ly/NSDARMX

Ghoti Of Lod

I think the second link was meant to be

http://bit.ly/NSARMX

Seke Rob

Yup, they're always 6 characters. Rushing is never good (We seem to be when some updates of the same numbers are posted 3-4-5-6 times a day)

Whilst, the sideshow of MASIE also supports what the HEALY aloftcam is showing. -784,000 reduction in 4 days.

24-Aug-2012 5044216
25-Aug-2012 4912252
26-Aug-2012 4707733
27-Aug-2012 4488836
28-Aug-2012 4259834

Navigation at max knots... hope these guys dont run into that flat earth spot, off the ledge.

(Are the Shell boys already drilling?... Well, now they're seeking an extension [with all that melt http://royaldutchshellplc.com/2012/08/29/shell-seeks-extension-of-alaska-chukchi-drill-season/ )

L. Hamilton

NSIDC down -48k, new record 3.75251
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/sea_ice_NSIDC_min_to_date.png

Seke Rob

Slow downloading from NSIDC but theirs is in higher demand these days:

2012, 08, 28, 3.80019, 0.00000,
2012, 08, 29, 3.75251, 0.00000,

Bout -47.6K Extent reduction for day, near same as CT-SIA, but for a day earlier. This makes the 5 day trailing change from 3932032 to 3864694

Seke Rob

The maximum - present minimum change now stands at -11538340 or 75.5% gone in 1 not-ended melt season: http://bit.ly/NSARMX

Lord Soth

In case anybody missed it; PIOMAS is down to 3599 km^3 for volume.

A stupid question, I have seen AMSR-E2 sat pics floating around on the web. Any ideas when IJIS will switch from the low res windsat to the high res AMSR-E2 for extent.

L. Hamilton

The PIOMAS fall (to date) looks definitive:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/sea_ice_PIOMAS_min_to_date.png

Al Rodger

POIMAS year-on-year anomalies up to day 238. (usually 2 clicks to 'download your attachment')
The kick form the early-August storm is quite evident.

Espen Olsen

Ijis 3801406 km2

Wipneus

Update Aug 31:

2012, 08, 28, 3.80019
2012, 08, 29, 3.75251
2012, 08, 30, 3.79271

Wipneus

Trailing 5 day avg: 3.828572 (from 3.864694)

Espen Olsen

North East grenland,
I believe we see Nilas creation as "south" of Scoresbysund, it may be an early winter this season?

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl2_143.A2012244121000-2012244121500.2km.jpg

Lord Soth

Except for some ice in the Gulf of Boothia, Fox Basin, and victoria channel in the Canadian Archepelago, which will melt for the next three weeks, most of the ice pack is North of 80.

Also, the AO is heading back into positive territory, which is not conductive to compression.

With the melting of ice south of 80 and the freezing of the ice pack, north of 80, I believe we have reached the end of large drops. For the next two to three weeks, we are going to see a flat bottom. Their will be small ups and downs, but I'm expecting a minimun in the 3.7 million km^2 range for extent.

Next year should be interesting. This winter the Transpolar Drift and Beaufort Gyre will result in placing first year ice over the pole; just like in 2008. Next year we stand a good change of having the pole melt out.

Wipneus

Arcus SEARCH sea ice outlook has a late August update:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2012/august/update

Espen Olsen

ijis: 3740781 km2

Wipneus

Update Sep 1, new low:

2012, 08, 27, 3.85419
2012, 08, 28, 3.80019
2012, 08, 29, 3.75251
2012, 08, 30, 3.79271
2012, 08, 31, 3.68911

5 Day tr. average : 3.777742

Seke Rob

Thanks for posting those numbers. It takes here between 3 to 6 minutes to open that ftp file, or times out. Puts the YTD decline from Max day at 11.6Million and anomaly from base at 46.6%. See http://bit.ly/NSARMX

Notably, the earliest NSiDC minimum date I have as 9.2 [Since 1979]...

Lord Soth

Great, I suggest a slowdown, and we lose another 100K with NSIDC.

This season defies logic.

I am beginning to wonder,that the only thing that is going to stop this melt, is the sun finally going down over the high arctic.

Jim Williams

Lord Soth says: "I am beginning to wonder,that the only thing that is going to stop this melt, is the sun finally going down over the high arctic."

I wonder how that bottom melt is doing lately?

Seke Rob

Somewhere saw a monthly statistic from observation data of top/bottom loss during different parts of the melt season... we're most pronouncedly into the bottom melt section [lost it in the thousands of not yet indexed bookmarks]. It's a hard to formulate a query [for me] to get a Google answer, but modelers try to integrate this with brine content, insolation etc.

"The important influence of variable brine volume fraction within the sea ice acts as thermal inertia in the sea ice – delaying the arrival of the summer melt season and fall freeze-up. The brine volume is modeled as internal melt that effectively increases the heat capacity of sea ice and reduces the amount of energy needed to melt the ice from the top or bottom surface. Modeling the reflection, absorption, and transmission of sunlight in sea ice is essential to capture the energy exchange with the atmosphere and ocean, as well as the proper light levels utilized by sea ice and ocean biota."
Seke Rob

Source of the above snip: http://mathaware.org/mam/09/essays/Golden_etal_Sea_Ice.pdf

Seke Rob

Was just curious to see if the monthly numbers published by NSIDC could computed with dailies. This is the July monthly (ext+area):

2012 7 NRTSI-G N 7.94 4.70

Taking the 5 day trailing averages got... 7,946,584 km square. Testing a few more months, think to predict that their August extent number is in the close proximity of 4.98 +/-0.02 (Depends on where in the process they round off). With some area extrapolations then came to this prediction (sorry Area dropped off the bottom).

http://i137.photobucket.com/albums/q210/Sekerob/Climate/ArcticSIASIEAugust.png

Most pronouncedly, a domino of sorts... and if playing with numbers and units and words [like Paul Ryan doing the marathon in 2:50 hours +/no minus 1.:15 hours], that's getting very close the "virtual ice free", of 1 million [on the second y-axis ;-]


Artful Dodger

Sep 1, 2012 NSIDC daily SIE is now 3.608
M km^2, down 81 K since August 31.

Wipneus

+ Five day trailing average: 3.728456 Mm^2

(down 49 k)

Artful Dodger

Some speculation on NSIDC SIE data:

2007, 09, 01, 4.48236
2012, 09, 01, 3.60776
Sep 2007 Monthly Avg Ext: 4.30 M

If 2012 has a similar trajectory to 2007 the stall/regrowth curve, then Sep 2012 monthly avg SIE could come in around 3.42 M sq. km

Yowsers,
Lodger

Wipneus

Update 2012/09/03, new low:

2012, 08, 29, 3.75251
2012, 08, 30, 3.79271
2012, 08, 31, 3.68911
2012, 09, 01, 3.60776
2012, 09, 02, 3.58558

5 day tr. avg: 3.685534 Mm2

Seke Rob

Ahum:

2012, 09, 01, 3.60776
2012, 09, 02, 3.58558

-2K

Seke Rob

-2K times 11 :D

Seke Rob

My plotter says NSIDC extent is now running outside 7Σ anomaly from the 1979-2000 baseline.

Artful Dodger

... that'd be 7σ, i thinkma ;^)

Gobsmackio.

Wipneus

Update 2012/9/4, new low -45k:

2012, 08, 30, 3.79271
2012, 08, 31, 3.68911
2012, 09, 01, 3.60776
2012, 09, 02, 3.58558
2012, 09, 03, 3.54015

5 day tr. average: 3.643062

Lord Soth

The random chance of a 7.2 sigma event, occurs once per the current age of the universe. Now thats one big Black Swan!

Jon Hurn

Keep an eye out for the NSIDC graph...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmfcJP_0eMc&feature=youtube_gdata_player

Wipneus

Update 5 september, up 24k:

2012, 08, 31, 3.68911
2012, 09, 01, 3.60776
2012, 09, 02, 3.58558
2012, 09, 03, 3.54015
2012, 09, 04, 3.56411

5 day trailing average: 3.597342

Seke Rob

Anyone still got hair to pull? A red nightcap looks good to cover that balding spot.

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