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Jim Williams

That just about sums up my understanding dabize. The nice graph overlaying area anomalies for the last few years will have 2012 neatly surrounding the rest, and a slightly delayed return to 'normal'. (Not really normal, folks.)

I suspect next year will make this year seem like a piker, but there are too many variables and the next big drop could be pushed off a year or two.

As soon as there's no more ice to melt by mid summer the water will start getting saltier and the halocline will quickly break down, ending Winter refreezes.

dabize

As soon as there's no more ice to melt by mid summer the water will start getting saltier and the halocline will quickly break down, ending Winter refreezes.

Jeez, I hadn't factored that one into my scenario, which has things going kablooey fast enough as it is (i.e. as soon as there is significant albedo loss over the Arctic as a whole during the high insolation period (late May-early August)). The latent heat of evaporation needed will be huge, but the insolation rate will be huge also.

This might stave off massive increases in SST, 2M temps and GIS melting a bit though..............

This REALLY makes me want to know where the Gompertz/sigmoid type predictions for SI loss with time are coming from.

dabize

That first para is Jim's, of course. I wish Neven had an edit function here for us ADD types.........

Kris

Record-lovers,

For a change now a minimum record at
Anchorage, AK. :-)

dingojoe

This says the low yesterday was 48 and the high 60

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/PAMR/2012/9/18/MonthlyHistory.html#calendar

Nightvid Cole

As soon as there's no more ice to melt by mid summer the water will start getting saltier and the halocline will quickly break down, ending Winter refreezes.

I don't think so. if that were true, Baffin Bay, the Bering Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk would not have extensive ice cover in March.

Enno Zinngrebe

"As soon as there's no more ice to melt by mid summer the water will start getting saltier and the halocline will quickly break down, ending Winter refreezes. "

I am not sure I can follow that. I agree that is is one crucial issue for estimating what really will be the consequence of all the newly summer ice free seas. But I am completely layman in oceanography, so I would have to ask, very basically, what keeps up the halocline in the first place? Can someone explain that?

I have read statements to the effect that ice formation would act to *destratify* a top layer because it would form downwelling rejected brines and these would sink through & thereby mix the toplayer. So if there were suddenly high ice formation rates where there formerly were low ones because ice was perennial, that should tend to destratify. But if it were doing that to such an extent that it destroyed the upper layer stratification as a whole, then lower Atlantic warm water would come up and destroy the ice for good. So can someone explain this riddle?

I thought that the top fresher layer was due largely to the riverine freshwater input and the prevention of mixing by the perennial ice. Is that right?

If it is then shouldnt be the main danger for the top stratification that the summer-deiced seas could be much better mixed by wind and storm action?

But the Sea of Okhotsk, or the Gulf of Lawrence, they all cant hardly be less well mixed that a seasonally ice free arctic might become. Yet they form ice every winter. Why can they do it while the Barents Sea can´t?

sorry if these questions seem basic. I´m still quite struggling with all this.

dabize

Nightvid,

All of those bodies of water now receive extensive freshwater drainage after sea ice has melted out (from Greenland, the melting icecap or surrounding well watered land areas (respectively). They also don't completely melt out until relatively late in the season.

Not sure if they are a good test of the thesis - yet.

Jim Williams

Enno, the guesses are somewhat contradictory (and I've been reading a lot about this lately), but the evidence so far is that the Atlantic water is spreading more into the Arctic surface waters instead of diving under as much as it has in the past. This is the exact opposite of the speculation on a slowdown in the Atlantic overturning there's so much literature on.

The freshwater lens in the Arctic is a mixture of river runoff, glacial melt, and ice cap water. I am guessing that wind driven mixing and reduced freeze-freshened water will be sufficient to change the basic nature of the Arctic water. Remember that we have good evidence that the Arctic has been warm during the interglacials, and some evidence that the changes were abrupt. The most obvious candidate for an abrupt change to a warm regime would be the loss of the freshwater lens and an overturning of the halocline resulting in the warm Atlantic layer reaching the surface and raising the average SST several degrees.

Enno Zinngrebe

Jim thank you. I quite agree. (And then shouldnt scientists try to litter the Arctic marginal seas with buoys, so that they could detect such a change?)

Then if it goes as you say, one should expect that the *winter* sea ice extent would follow - and thereby mark - the gradual progress of the Atlantic surfacing into the Arctic Basin? Marking the line where that new water has become cooled enough to allow winter ice?

So, that would mean that maybe areas like the Laptev or East Sib Seas lose thier winter ice cover before the Baffin Bay does? Interesting angle. Again thanks for the explanations.

"freeze freshening" is a term I still have difficulties with. Making Ice means taking out the non-salt part out of the water so it should make saltier water, no? Whereas melting ice should make fresher water? That still confuses me.

Jim Williams

Enno Zinngrebe: "Then if it goes as you say, one should expect that the *winter* sea ice extent would follow - and thereby mark - the gradual progress of the Atlantic surfacing into the Arctic Basin? Marking the line where that new water has become cooled enough to allow winter ice?"

I'd wonder most about that "gradual," but I think that is what we've been seeing. It's the disconnect between the speculation on a decrease in North Atlantic overturning and the evidence of a further north ice free zone north of Norway which drew me out of just watching the CT ice area into a more wide ranging questioning.

Enno Zinngrebe: "'freeze freshening' is a term I still have difficulties with. Making Ice means taking out the non-salt part out of the water so it should make saltier water, no? Whereas melting ice should make fresher water? That still confuses me."

I can understand that. My notion here is that there is an annual cycle involving that water. The rejection of brine each winter is followed by the melt of the fresher ice each Summer. The salt(ier) water generated each winter would tend to fall out of the system of surface water, leaving fresh(er) water at the surface after the melt.

This is only a portion of the fresh(er) water and may not even be important. The longer availability of surface water to the wind, however, is important. The mixing of water previously hidden under ice is clearly a change. I think both are happening, but it may not even be important whether I am right about the reduction in brine production.

Nightvid Cole

All of those bodies of water now receive extensive freshwater drainage after sea ice has melted out (from Greenland, the melting icecap or surrounding well watered land areas (respectively). They also don't completely melt out until relatively late in the season.

Not sure if they are a good test of the thesis - yet.

How did you determine the summer fresh water inflow per unit surface area for all those bodies, and how much higher is it (proportionally speaking) for those bodies than for the Arctic Ocean? If you don't have numbers, how can you claim that that makes the analogy between those seas and a future summer-ice-free Arctic Ocean break down?

Enno Zinngrebe

jim williams, you will like this site (from a random wild goose chase).

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=41795

"The observations additionally suggest that efficient lateral mixed layer restratification processes may be active in the Arctic, also impeding mixed layer deepening."

that may be a hint that the change in the waters might come sideways, rather than by basin wide simultaneous "layer collapse". Might be nice to find the papers that must have come out of this work.

Kris

Enno Zinngrebe asked:

Why can they do it while the Barents Sea can´t

For a starter, seas don?t do nothing, they just endure environmetal circumstamces.

And yes, it's about basis.

On the Northern hemisphere:

- continental West coasts are under the influence of currents streaming from the equator to the Pole. From France and the British Islands till Nordkapp, Nova Zembla and even Servebaya Zemlya. From the North of California till the Aleutian Islands.

- The East coast are hit by cold streams coming down from the Pole. Baffin Bay, New Found Land, St Lawrence till cold hits warm around Maine IIRC.
Same history for the Sea of Ochotsk. It's entirely at the cold zone of Eurasia.

Twemoran

Lodger posted a very good piece a while back (which I neglected to bookmark), that explained what is now known about Arctic stratification.

Another interesting post concerned the melting of FYI leaving a very saline melt that was dropping 200 meters and disrupting the fresh water lens (it's bookmarked, but missing)

After reading both it seemed to me that without MYI melt providing a source for fresh water in the central regions, and with open water mixing due to storms, we could have huge polynia structures forming away from coastal fresh water sources.

Terry

Jim Williams

Nightvid Cole: "I don't think so. if that were true, Baffin Bay, the Bering Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk would not have extensive ice cover in March."

All are continental climate, with the partial exception of the Bering. The Arctic is more a part of the Atlantic, and except for a bit downwind from Greenland is not continental. (I also haven't checked depths; which can be a factor.) The Arctic already has all the heat it needs to be completely ice free. It is just a matter of exposing that heat to the surface.

I think Warm Water Cold Continents will become the norm.

Werther

Lights are out...temps are dropping. DMI north of 80dG is finally falling. Next week shows build up of cold.
Time to reflect the records...

Jim Williams

We finally have a bit of a drop in DMI Arctic Air Temperature.

Frankd 1977

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the NSIDC is going to call this years minimum SIE on 9/20 or 9/21 with a 5 day rolling mean of 3.40 million km2.

Taking all bets folks!

Nightvid Cole

All are continental climate, with the partial exception of the Bering. The Arctic is more a part of the Atlantic, and except for a bit downwind from Greenland is not continental. (I also haven't checked depths; which can be a factor.) The Arctic already has all the heat it needs to be completely ice free. It is just a matter of exposing that heat to the surface.

I think Warm Water Cold Continents will become the norm.

The central part of Baffin Bay is definitely more maritime in climate during the early freeze season (October) than the Canadian Maritimes, which are the classic example of a maritime climate - and yet ice often forms there "from scratch" (i.e. beginning in a place surrounded by open water rather than an advancing ice edge) as in e.g. Fall 2009.

Even in the North atlantic the ice edge in March is well south of where the saltwater drops into the abyss.

Upwelling saltwater or no, it's very hard to fight the forces of Old Man Winter when there is darkness for 4 months and a loss of ~150 W m^-2 from the surface...

Nightvid Cole

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the NSIDC is going to call this years minimum SIE on 9/20 or 9/21 with a 5 day rolling mean of 3.40 million km2.

Taking all bets folks!

To be frank, I think you're crazy!

It bottomed out at 3.41 the day before yesterday and quite a lot of ice has formed in just the last two days in the vicinity of 82N 120E and some also around 83N 160E.

Espen

Severnaya Zemlya / Laptev Sea:

Have you guys noticed the "green stuff" between Severnaya Zemlya and the ice pack?
Maybe a new sort of "ice algae"?

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2012263.aqua.4km

Seke Rob

As we occasionally discuss the Antarctic, mostly when the escape clause is called on again by the concern trolls and fake skeptics, spend some time to add the NSIDC Southern Hemisphere extent data to the db, process the anomalies in the anomalies and verifying that the picture ties with the official, this one:

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png

The new chart is this one:

http://bit.ly/NSAN01

and is same in content as the one for the Arctic, http://bit.ly/NSAR01 .

What is found is, that the "positive" anomaly is the whole of 0.744 million or 4.0% off from climatology. Compare that to the -49% that the Arctic is off at this time and you got the idea.

On the Todo is also a global chart integrating the Ant+Arctic which will likely come out similar as for the CT-SIA data http://bit.ly/CTGB01 , but without the "year of denialists slapping foreheads en mass" comments on them ;P.

Enno Zinngrebe

re: Espen, the Green Ocean. I don´t know - I guess something biological would have to be the first suspect?

But it happens to be that in the same location there is something funny with the buoys? Yesterday´s discussion sent me clicking through the live buoy oceanographic data and the two in the Laptev Sea seem to show something strange:

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=111936

unfortunately I am not knowledgeable in interpreting such data. Are they even real or are they malfunctions? Maybe someone here can explain. It just strikes me that this is about in the same area where you & Neven noticed this greening.

Espen

Enno,

On a second thought, it might be because of that "shinning star" right in the pole that always appears this time of the year????
But I am not sure!

Enno Zinngrebe

Hi,

since I´m new to this, I don´t know what you mean with this shining star :)

But I don´t think it is something like the sunglint in MODIS images of tropical seas where the sun shines from right behind the satellite. How are satellite, pole and sun configured around the 21st Sept?

Again looking at it I find the Green to be locally variable, like NE of Frz. Jsf. Lands, or r03c04 as it´s called on this blog. That doesnt seem to be astronomical? Or would it?

I´m also impressed how well the new Uni Bremen AMSR2 map and the MODIS image agree, once the clouds are gone.

Nightvid Cole

NSIDC has called the minimum!!!!!!

Bfraser

The "shining star" is the area where not enough sunlight falls for MODIS to capture an image. (Also called the "Pole hole" on this blog if you want to search for it.)

I am pretty sure that the green is real, and it seems likely to be algae or something similar (though I am no expert).

Enno Zinngrebe

Thank you bfraser. Just on cue to support you:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/story/2012/06/07/sci-phytoplankton-blooms-arctic.html

"Giant algae blooms thriving under thinning Arctic sea ice"

It actually makes sense if one thinks about it: not long ago on this blog was discussed how the solar energy input through thin first year ice was really measurably many times greater than through perennial ice. Should not come as a wonder if little things take their advantage! Still, I would never have thought of it.

Enno Zinngrebe


Here is a very nice NASA video on this green arctic soup sea ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpUf2EAmHxk

(for me that seems to fit quite convincingly to Espen/Neven´s observation)

logicman

Enno:
the green tinge is observed every year as the sun shines lower in the polar skies. An observer on the ground sees red or orange because the green is scattered to space. As proof that the green is not due to marine algae, check the Antarctic mosaic for the same green tinge over land.

The minimum:
the 2007 record was broken a month earlier than the average date for minimum. This may imply a prolonged stalling of re-growth. When we see a winter minimum around 7th October we shall be witnessing the beginning of perennial summer open water over most of the Arctic. We may not yet have seen the 2012 minimum.

Patrick.

Espen

Hi Patrick

Good to see you, hope you are ok!

Espen

Artful Dodger

Hi Patrick,

Welcome back, hope the new Season finds you well.

Joe Romm blogs with voice recognition software. He uses Dragon Naturally Speaking to dictate his blogs.

Just an idea to help get you up and posting again. We miss you!

Cheers,
Lodger

skywatcher

Hi Patrick, excellent to see you here again!

Re the green tinge, I commented yesterday on SkepticalScience about it, and agree with Patrick.

"my guess would be it's something to do with how the open water is appearing with low sun angles - looking at yesterday's[two days ago now] mosaic (and the previous two days too), you can see a distinct latitudinal lower limit to the greenish tint on the right-hand side of the Arctic mosaic - looks a lot like wherever there's open water above ~80N there's the green tint, perhaps the blue spectral channel is not getting as good signal at low sun angles."

Expanding on the idea a little, ocean water is likely to be predominantly visible in blue and green channels of the MODIS visible light imagery. Scattering of some blue light at low Sun angles may cause the resulting parts of the image to appear more green than they would otherwise. You would expect the green tinge to spread a little further south as polar night extends in from the north.

Frankd 1977

Yahoo put this AP article about the NSIDC SIE minimum on their headline banner (will be bumped down to the "science" section very soon).

http://news.yahoo.com/arctic-ice-shrinks-time-low-half-1980-size-175242723.html

It's not very well written and kind of a rush job but it is mainstream attention. Just don't read the comments section... under any circumstances (seriously)

Russell McKane

Disagreeing with Patrick could be a dangerous thing But I would will. Looking at the 3,6,7 image the tinge here is purple. Now this image does not contain any green spectrum. 3 in red (given the colour blue) 6 is far infra red and 7 is thermal. (note thermal has a lower resolution than the other six channels so thus the banding) I would like to see bands 4 and 5 as a 4,5,6 image gives good distinction in plant matter. (Does anyone know if full multispectral images are available to the public and where, as I have the software - multispec {free download} to process.)Also if it is as suggested there would also be some green tinging on ice areas (as antarctic over land). also we would see the affect on opposite sides of image giving a donnut effect.
Given also reports last year of algal growth under thin ice my main suspect remains algal.

Wayne Kernochan

fwiw - the nsidc announcement notes the minimum could still go lower :| - w

Russell McKane

I knew it could be dangerous to disagree with Patrick, :) looking at water in Nares Strait the same appears so I am going to go against my last post and agree with a green due to blue scatter but I would still like to view some near Infrared bands before I discount an algal presence.

LRC

As this did impact how the ice moved around thought this was as good a spot to post this as any other. Found video (bottom video) a time lasp of the wind patterns over the Arctic since Aug 1.
http://www.wjla.com/blogs/weather/2012/09/wild-storms-in-the-arctic-last-month-16709.html

Apocalypse4Real

LRC,

Am assuming it is the same as this NOAA released video of Arctic storm impacts of SLP's and winds from 1 August to 13 Sept.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Gsr1503TNg

This is one of the reasons I have been posting about ongoing formation of SLP's - since even though refreeze has started, the storm potential may break up ice or slow redevelopment in some areas as the heat is drawn from the Pacific and Atlantic areas with high SST's into the Arctic through these storms.

The Arctic sunrise comments about 2 meter ice floe breakup due to wave action would seem to apply to thinner ice as well.

LRC

A4R: Same one. As for thin ice no joke. Point observers seem to be making is that no ice seems to be making a dent in the big swells.
Another thing I noticed about the video, the Jet seems to be making some wild waves and spins especially between eastern NA and western EU.

Espen

Copenhagen Denmark ( North West Europe)

I are at moment having a kind of "Tropical" Rain Storm, and it is September 20 2012, they we were even rare during the summer just a few years ago! I wonder how and why?

Seke Rob

Regular word from the Netherlands, not far from Denmark is, that it's been kind of an intermittent, autumn type, brief warm-feeling like summer. The weather is a mess, completely and far from the *normal* climatic indicators. If you see birds leaving in flocks early, you know there's something coming of the colder type. Few years ago certain geese to swans [cant remember their name] just stayed put up north, not doing their winter track to e.g. the southern UK. The birds were right, which they are most of the times. The birds are the fast track indicators of climate change, what they eat is even faster, or too slow, so the new territories don't have enough food for the brood. Recently Spanish vultures tracked all the way to Belgium/Netherlands/the German plains, but that may have been the doing of an EU rule of not allowing livestock carcases to remain on the land to feed off. We, HSS have impact on every aspect of live on this planet.

dabize

Listen, here in the northeast USA we have had multiple tornado watches and warnings - this NEVER used to happen here. I know there have been multiple sightings of funnel clouds in New England this year, and there were multiple tornadoes (with fatalities just last year), together with a number of waterspouts.
I think that even New York City had one earlier this year.

Not sure about the actual incidence rate of such storms - I know that there was a severe outbreak here (in Massachusetts) about 50 years ago, but that was always considered to be an outlying event.

I do know that I've seen no more than 2-3 local references to them in the period between 1970 and 2005 in this area.

Something is definitely going on

Espen

I am convinced that we in this part of the world (North West Europe), will be the first to watch the results of the loss of sea ice at the North Pole. It will be in the form of major changes in the weather, simply because we are already so weather dependent of the Gulf Stream which we in no way for certain know how will react to the changing conditions up north. We all ready had 2 "strange" winters and heavy rain like in the monsoon season in South East Asia?

Seke Rob

GISS LOTI just updated for August, with lots of revisions of prior months and years. The most prominent change, July'12 to August Southern Hemisphere from 0.2 to 0.48C anomaly. The NH went from 0.74 to 0.65C anom. Global, 0.47 to 0.56C.

Jim Williams

Espen, the trend for the western boundary currents is poleward. In the Atlantic this is the exact opposite of all the speculation about the shutdown of the thermohaline circulation.

I've no clue what this would mean for Europe if the Gulf Stream were to decide to flow west of Greenland.

Espen

Jim,

"I've no clue what this would mean for Europe if the Gulf Stream were to decide to flow west of Greenland."


Scandinavia will be very much like Canada today weather wise, same latitude, but all the other unknowns?

Jim Williams

Espen, my mother was born in Moosejaw and I grew up in Tacoma Washington. Two very different climates, with where I grew up much like Toronto, so I don't know what "like Canada" means. (I also live on the East Coast; which adds yet another Canadian Climate.)

It is conceivable that the Gulf Stream will actually flow west of Greenland, but more likely that it will just trend further north in the Barents. Gulf Stream flowing more through the Barents seems like it would be warm and wet in most of Europe. Gulf Stream flowing west of Greenland sounds like a good reason to move to Switzerland.

Espen

I guess like "Canada" means something like Newfoundland I would guess, but I could be completely wrong, but then of course there are a pile of other factors too, all heading in different dirctions!

Steve C

Another vote for the greenish color to MOSTLY represent phytoplankton bloom. Ice color could be from spectral aspects of low light angle or camera color correction in low light....
But the green in the water in this mosaic tile, at least, can only be phytoplankton:
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r04c04.2012263.terra

It would be interesting to look at dissolved oxygen content around the arctic. There isn't enough light now for much photosynthesis. All this organic stuff in the water will only consume oxygen until spring.

Wipneus

September Sea Ice Outlook: Late Summer Update with contributions as of 10 September 2012:

http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2012/august/update

Klon Jay

Uh, posted this wrong first...
I've been looking at the green water for several days, and I'm not sure if light angle or bloom. However, here you can see a non-green patch within the green area, which sways me toward bloom.
http://www.arctic.io/observations/8/2012-09-19/8-N83.421226-E42.418621
Wish someone was out there sampling.

Chris Reynolds

Espen,

The MOC/THC/Gulf Stream isn't the main issue.

The House of Commons Environmental Audit committee have quoted Wadhams as saying that cooler temperatures in the UK are due to a reduction in the THC. He's wrong on this.

It is quite clear that various processes are going on at different times of the year. Cohen has shown that the lack of winter warming in Northern Europe is likely ocnnected to changes in snow cover over Siberia and increased easterly air flow. This February we saw a cold snap in an otherwise mainly mild winter, that was due to the low sea ice in Barents - the synoptic pattern is just what Petoukohv & Semenov found in their model study.

Then the UK's cool wet summers since 2007 are clearly due to a circulation shift from the Greenland high since 2007, and attendant Arctic Dipole.

In contrast there is no evidence of a reduction in THC dropping heat transport to Europe. Check out GISS Maps.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/
Drop the radius to 250km, so you can see which grid boxes are reporting over the sea. From the US Eastern seaboard up to around the southern tip of Greenland there are warm anomalies for Summer and Winter periods. While across the Atlantic there are warm anomalies - exactly where this THC heat would pass on its way to Europe.

On this issue Wadhams is wrong.

Werther

Tonight the Dutch television daily news broadcasted a short item on the new minimum sea ice extent record. After showing the map and the graph for the differences they focused on what is seen as changing lifestyle for polar bears. The punch line being ‘ice may recede but the polar bears seem to adapt’, thus diminishing drama and giving the subject a funnier and manageable aspect.
It makes me wonder when the editors might decide to give this for goodness sake some thorough, documentary attention.

BTW They produced some interesting footage of a bear inspecting a Svalbard (?) settlement.

PS I think the bear lifestyle is almost done. But then, I often get a bit gloomy...

Klon Jay

Uh, posted this wrong first...
I've been looking at the green water for several days, and I'm not sure if light angle or bloom. However, here you can see a non-green patch within the green area, which sways me toward bloom.
http://www.arctic.io/observations/8/2012-09-19/8-N83.421226-E42.418621
Wish someone was out there sampling.

Seke Rob

An interesting announcement page over at the National Ice Center [NIC], discussing in amongst the end of melt, Northern Passages not to have fully opened http://www.natice.noaa.gov/announcements.html and the ending of pdf file generation of maps. It's now make your own at Products on Demand: http://www.natice.noaa.gov/products/products_on_demand.html Zoom/drag [F5 if getting grainy] and right click, then select "Save map to file"

Otto Lehikoinen

In Science News, another sort of minimum is likely established: http://phys.org/news/2012-09-chemists-smallest-molecules-ice-crystal.html
So one cannot apply the heat of fusion directly to ultra-small quantities of water.

Wipneus

The KlimaCampus of Hamburg university has been steadily adjusting its estimate of the NSIDC September average:

from 3.4+/-0.0
to 3.5+/-0.0
to 3.6+/-0.0

and today 3.7+/-0.0

Clearly those error bars don't include what you'd hope the would: an meaningful estimate of the uncertainty in the final value.

ftp://ftp-projects.zmaw.de/seaice/prediction/2012/estimate.png

Artful Dodger

Hi Wipneus,

The method used by Lars Kaleschke is susceptible to the instantaneous slope of the SIE graph.

This is expected given the unprecedented loss of SIE in the Laptev bite.

Now that it has skinned over, their methodology will stabilize, as SSTs battle with edge melt and winds with compaction.

Remember there's still over a million km² of open water INSIDE the pack. Will it freeze in place, or will it shrink?

I expect there's lots of excitement in the deniosphere over the slope of the 'recovery' in the last 3 days.

I'm more interested in snow cover over sea ice this Fall/Winter. I hope the AMSR2 product I used to get will be available again soon.

Cheers,
Lodger

Wipneus

That is the point AD, they report the error in their estimate of the model parameter. Not an estimate of the uncertainty in real-world behavior.

(A distinction I was taught long ago as an "internal" vs. "external error)

In August their estimate was 4.1+/-0.1 Mm2

Account Deleted

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/masie_extent_sqkm.csv

MASIE at new low

Russell McKane

Neven Can we have a new open thread. Not sure where to post this. But minimum open thread is now 4 pages long and it will probably get lost.
Only an observation - Check out the Barrow web cam for today 28 at 15.04.27 hours - massive ocean waves, massive for Barrow at least. Damage along arctic coast will be significant this year. There is a lot of time for arctic low pressure storms with open water left in the season. Unprotected Permafrost coast lines will continue to be hit in the extended open water seasons.

kiwichick

hi guys

first post here

just to say congrats to all concerned

Apocalypse4Real

The Giovanni and IASI methane maps for September 21-30, 2012 are posted. The IASI maps data changed from 970-600 mb to 600 mb only in August, 2012.

AIRS/Giovanni:

https://sites.google.com/site/apocalypse4realmethane2012/home/2012-vs-2011-airs-ch4-359-hpa

IASI:

https://sites.google.com/site/apocalypse4realmethane2012/home/iasi-2012-vs-2011-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb

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