« PIOMAS September 2012 | Main | Signs of Arctic climate change »


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Hi Neven, welcome back. Hope you had a good break.

And of course, the IMS sea ice extent graph, that has also reached a record low (again, meaningless, as this product is for navigational purposes and ship safety, and not climate research).

I wouldn't go quite as far as meaningless. I know it's not as good a proxy for the heat content as, say, the area is; but only in the same way that area is not as good a proxy as volume. And it documents an important regional effect of the changing climate: the Arctic is more open to navigation than ever on record. The political, commercial, and resource-extraction implications are just beginning.

Artful Dodger

Wasn't soddard (not his real name) in here with a 'drive-by' early this Summer blustering about a bet on no sea ice record in 2012?

Wott a Merry-anthony.

Wot a waste of time.

What a joke.


Another Domino not mentioned before, also a navigational site, is the Canadian Ice Service. They have also declared this year to be a record in their western region.



6p0134866ea772970c stated:

They have also declared this year to be a record in their western region.

A record? What record?

Although I'm not particulary a record-lover I really would like to know what we are talking about ...


Lowest extent observed there, I don't have access to a computer at present so I can't link it. If you go to the 30 day report for the Western Arctic on their site you'll find it.


Seke Rob

Could this be it?


Jim Williams

CT SIA anomaly is the record I'm most interested in, though more in terms of shape than anything else. Will the area be back to "normal" come end of November?

R. Gates

Nice to see you back Neven. Also nice to see you mention how Watts had his ass handed to him (politely of course) by Walt Meier. When it comes to sea ice and the Arctic in general I call Watts, Goddard, and Bastardi the Three Stooges. Their gyrations are quite comical in a sad sort of way as they spread much misinformation and misperception to their eager followers who lap up every cherry-picked morsel. Thanks to you and so many others who contribute here, the average reader on this blog knows tens times more true science related to the Arctic and about the cryosphere in general than the Three Stooges combined.

R. Gates

Jim Williams, the SIA anomaly has not been back to normal in November since 2001, and with this years Arctic basin so far below normal and of course the rest of the Arctic virtually ice free, the likelihood of that happening this year is very remote. The strength of this winters recovery will be the subject of much interest. No better place to get an ongoing analysis than here.

Espen Olsen

And this must be another record no sea ice north of 80 (>20%)

Timothy Chase

Espen Olsen wrote:

And this must be another record no sea ice north of 80 (>20%)
North of 80 what? I assume you aren't speaking 80°N latitude, at least not for all 360° longitude, otherwise things must have really moved fast while I was asleep.

Espen Olsen


South of! (Sorry)


Has the NSIDC sea ice extent been reached?
Could be.

I still expect September monthly average to be about 3.6 million sq km.

Alan Clark

Looking at the forecast for the next few days, it looks like there will be a lot of warm air flowing from Europe and the Atlantic towards the pole, so i expect a further decline.

Seke Rob

From the same house, MASIE 9.7 is 3,596,055 km^2

JAXA Prelim is 3,595,781 and 9.7 final was 3,664,531

There's lots of (un)stretch in the field, where by the looks DMI also lowered a teeny.


Jim Williams

Alan, I've certainly seen a lot of Atlantic heat being sucked up in a couple of storms and expect a good chunk of that to head north. They're likely to bring much of the Atlantic back to normal temps. Haven't been watching Europe. What's happening there?

Timothy Chase

Deepclimate wrote:

Has the NSIDC sea ice extent been reached?

Could be.

I thought sea ice area would bottom out before extent, but while NSIDC looks like it might be turning a corner, Cryosphere Today Sea Ice Area, from day 226 to 249 sea ice area has gone down from 2.98632 mil. km^2 to 2.29821 mil. km^2, and the trend seems fairly constant over that period.


Cryosphere Today's sea ice area shows no sign of slowing down its decline. It is now more than 600,000 sq. km below last year's record (year 2011, day 253, 2.90474 sq. km).

Latest record number: year 2012, day 249, 2.29821 sq. km


Am not sure which is more reliable, but Arctic ROOS has shown a big dip in the last couple of days. An anomaly that will correct itself or an indicator that things are still in flux in the Arctic

Jason Miller

"My advice to Anthony Watts: either you stop denying the seriousness of the disappearance of Arctic sea ice, or you just shut up about it."

Hear, Hear!

Alan Clark

Jim, much of mainland Europe has had very high temperatures (record in Czech Republic) and drought, and is still warmer than normal, including Russia where the wind is now blowing towards the North. In the UK it has been very different, with a very dry start to the year which was cured by the introduction of a hose-pipe ban, when it immediately started to rain heavily until the Olympics!


The full suit now in.


MASIE has got down to 3.457 day 256 (currently 3.488 day 257)

This seem remarkably close to NSIDC's 3.422 (11 Sept). Very little ice that NSIDC isn't detecting now? Or are there other differences? Perhaps MASIE excludes more at land boundaries?

Seke Rob

IMS updated their chart for a new record as of Sept.11 of 3.573 million km square, to closely align with the rest of the extent trackers. With a little eyeballing this is well over 450K lower than their lowest recorded in Sep.2007, the no longer reference year. Adding this data, the cheat sheet on arctic sea ice records is now fairly complete.

In percentage decline, CT-SIA is well ahead of the rest of the pack at -23.1% and that's *just* from the previous record set on that metric in 2011.

Peter Ellis

Rob: IMS is MASIE, the graph just shows a 3-day trailing mean. There's no need to look at them separately.

Seke Rob

Peter, MASIE 3 days trailing for the 11th is 3617000 were IMS has a published 3537000... oh dear, oh dear oh dear [from The New Statesman B'stard], El Toninô was holding on to the wrong straw at that, LoL. Anyway, just for completeness, since this is one of the dominoes declared.

Peter Ellis

Hmm, thought it was a trailing mean, but it must be a centred mean. 11th is day 255 in a leap year.

2012254, 3604995.96
2012255, 3548738.23
2012256, 3456695.22

Average: 3536809.80 (rounds to 3537000)


@Seke Rob,

I've been meaning to point this out for a while. You put "9.10.12" for the date of the prior record on PIOMAS daily, which I assume should be "9.10.11"


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