Looking for winter weirdness

The Arctic is refreezing fast. Trend lines that were way below all other years for weeks on end have returned to the pack, as can be seen on the Daily graphs page of the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website. Of course, there's still much more open water now than during the long-term average, and so we start looking for signs of weird or WACC-y weather, anomalous snowfall on the Northern Hemisphere land masses, outbreaks of cold air, atmospheric blocking patterns...

Here's something I don't remember seeing often in the past 3 years:

That's the latest surface pressure map from the Danish Meteorological Institute. It looks pretty impressive. The red and yellow are high pressure areas, meaning clear skies, low temperatures and fast freezing. These huge high pressure areas have caused the Arctic Oscillation index to go way down into negative territory:

In the meantime, south of the Arctic, a hurricane called Sandy is wreaking some havoc in the Caribbean. Sandy is projected to move northwards along the US east coast. Some weather models forecast a potential landfall in the Mid-Atlantic or New England that could cause a large amount of damage:

What could be weird is this: Apparently those huge high pressure areas in the Arctic can potentially cause Sandy to veer off towards the US. To quote this wonderfully informative piece on Climate Central (hat-tip idunno):

During the past 24 hours, the models have come into better agreement about how Sandy will interact with several unusual weather features. Those converging events include a large dip in the jet stream into the eastern U.S., a powerful subtropical jet stream moving across the southern U.S., a massive area of high pressure that will be parked over northeastern Canada and southwestern Greenland, and a storm in the Central Atlantic. These features may help steer Sandy right into the Mid-Atlantic or New England.

(...)

The high pressure area near Greenland, in particular, may act as a block (it's technically known as as a “blocking high”), which may help prevent Sandy from moving out into the open ocean. While it is not unusual to have a high pressure area in that location, its intensity is striking for this time of year. As Jason Samenow of the Capital Weather Gang wrote, the North Atlantic Oscillation, which helps measure this blocking flow, "is forecast to be three standard deviations from the average — meaning this is an exceptional situation."

Recent studies have shown that blocking patterns have appeared with greater frequency and intensity in recent years, which some scientists think may be related to the loss of Arctic sea ice as a result of global warming. The 2012 sea ice melt season, which just ended one month ago, was extreme, with sea ice extent, volume, and other measures all hitting record lows. The loss of sea ice opens up large expanses of open water, which absorbs more of the incoming solar radiation and adds heat and moisture to the atmosphere, thereby helping to alter weather patterns. Exactly how weather patterns are changing as a result, however, is a subject of active research.

What a coincidence, eh? I need another crash course on interpreting weather maps. And let's hope Sandy either doesn't develop into a massive storm, or doesn't make landfall. But this could be one for the weird category.

Comments

[Chris Biscan]

Jaxa updated.

I am sure the Sea Ice thread on Americanwx will go empty now since 2007 is 305K behind 2012 and has huge gains right now.

2011 is 505K behind 2012. What a joke. The day 2012 passed 2011 and 2007 there was pages of posts with the denier and "skeptics" throwing a party, you know they only get a few weeks of the year to do so like April 2011. September 2009 and so on.

The excuse for why the thread will go dead will be Sandy.

But we all know the real reason why.

[Neven]

That's something I'm working on. :-)

But hey, tonight was daylight saving time adjustment! Besides, how did you know I was still awake if you weren't awake yourself? :-)

[Steve Bloom]

Neven, as of a few hours ago Sandy became the largest Atlantic TC on record based on size of gale force wind field.

[Chris Biscan]

http://i174.photobucket.com/albums/w109/frivolousz21/slr_sla_gbl_keep_all_66.png?t=1351416454

Oh and the SLR graphs from NOAA updated.

Some adjustment from Weather.

Some from Thermal Expansion

and Some from the 1 Trillion Tonnes+ of land ice that melted out this year.

[Neven]

Da niente, Bob. I often get links to your pieces in my Google Reader. They're very good.

To all: here is Bob's latest on Sandy.

There is nothing remotely like the sharp left hook and coastal approach from the SE being predicted for Sandy. Not only is this track indicative of something extremely unusual in the steering flow, it's very problematic for NJ/NY because it'll slam water toward the NY harbor from almost a right angle.

Yes, and as I've understood, it shortens the path the storm will take over colder waters, reducing weakening.

But again, for me it's all about that strange sharp left hook and if the lack of sea ice is influencing that atmospheric pattern.

[Neven]

There's a guy producing video updates on the storm on his blog called Tropical Tidbits, and they're packed full of info. Somebody put a link up to his blog on ClimateCrocks, but I thought some of you might be interested to check out the vids.

[Apocalypse4Real]

Steve Bloom:

"Sandy became the largest Atlantic TC on record based on size of gale force wind field."

Steve, do you have a source for that?

That is a major problem for what is coming....it takes weeks to get power restored with massive amounts of trees down.

Also, the October storm with the closest path that I found was an 1866 hurricane that was a 59knt surface winf tropical storm which came ashore near Atlantic City, NJ, but its center went just west of NYC.

See: http://www.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#app=3d30&3e3d-selectedIndex=1

This does not mean it fully mimics Sandy, but is the one storm that reflects the potential for impacts.

The PSD Arctic temp anomalies are extreme in the Beaufort and over south Greenland. It's been this way for at least a week.

For the 10-25-12 map, see: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.day.pl?var=Air+Temperature&level=Surface&iy%5B1%5D=&im%5B1%5D=&id%5B1%5D=&iy%5B2%5D=&im%5B2%5D=&id%5B2%5D=&iy%5B3%5D=&im%5B3%5D=&id%5B3%5D=&iy%5B4%5D=&im%5B4%5D=&id%5B4%5D=&iy%5B5%5D=&im%5B5%5D=&id%5B5%5D=&iy%5B6%5D=&im%5B6%5D=&id%5B6%5D=&iy%5B7%5D=&im%5B7%5D=&id%5B7%5D=&iy%5B8%5D=&im%5B8%5D=&id%5B8%5D=&iy%5B9%5D=&im%5B9%5D=&id%5B9%5D=&iy%5B10%5D=&im%5B10%5D=&id%5B10%5D=&iy%5B11%5D=&im%5B11%5D=&id%5B11%5D=&iy%5B12%5D=&im%5B12%5D=&id%5B12%5D=&iy%5B13%5D=&im%5B13%5D=&id%5B13%5D=&iy%5B14%5D=&im%5B14%5D=&id%5B14%5D=&iy%5B15%5D=&im%5B15%5D=&id%5B15%5D=&iy%5B16%5D=&im%5B16%5D=&id%5B16%5D=&iy%5B17%5D=&im%5B17%5D=&id%5B17%5D=&iy%5B18%5D=&im%5B18%5D=&id%5B18%5D=&iy%5B19%5D=&im%5B19%5D=&id%5B19%5D=&iy%5B20%5D=&im%5B20%5D=&id%5B20%5D=&monr1=1&dayr1=1&monr2=1&dayr2=1&iyr%5B1%5D=&filenamein=&plotlabel=&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=250&label=0&cint=&lowr=&highr=&istate=0&proj=Northern+Hemisphere&xlat1=&xlat2=&xlon1=&xlon2=&custproj=Northern+Hemisphere+Polar+Stereographic&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot

[Apocalypse4Real]

I have updated the Arctic methane maps for October 11-20, 2012. The area of strongest readings in the IASI imagery is the Chukchi Sea.

The AIRS-Giovanni data at 359 hPa shows the highest CH4 concentrations in Siberia.

See: https://sites.google.com/site/apocalypse4realmethane2012/home/2012-Arctic-CH4-AIRS-359-hPa-vs-IASI-970-600-mb

[Lynn Shwadchuck]

I wish there were more news stories out there quoting Jennifer Francis.

'“It's exactly the kind of thing I was talking about,” Francis said. “I can't say for sure this particular pattern was influenced by the ice loss, but it is certainly the kind of thing we were expecting to see more of.'

Very nice graphic on page 1 explaining the blocking of Sandy's track to ordinary folks like me.

http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20121026/ARTICLE/121029673?p=3&tc=pg

[Apocalypse4Real]

For more on historic October and later storms and hurricanes to hit the US coast north of Cape Hatteras, see:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=95

[Neven]

PickledGinger writes but can't post the following comment:

In its latest Hurricane Sandy "discussion" -- issued at 11 pm on Saturday, 27 October -- the National Hurricane Center writes (but all in one even-longer-than-this paragraph):

[...] SANDY REMAINS IN AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE CAUSED BY A TROUGH TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LIKELY HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE HURRICANE DESPITE SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR 36 HOURS...

THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE DURING THIS TIME...AND IF THAT HAPPENS SANDY COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

AFTER 36 HOURS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL FORECAST THAT INTERACTION WITH THE U. S. TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE SOME INTENSIFICATION ALONG WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE COMPLETE BY 48 HOURS. […]

That'll be just in time for the by-then extratropical Sandy's anticipated Mid-Atlantic landfall, at forecast plus 48 to 72 hours, so probably sometime Tuesday.

Unless things change a bit, as they well might -- and if the storm slows just a smidgen, its eye could make landfall in November. Even if landfall is on schedule, the storm still is expected to be churning its way northward when November arrives.

Coastal flooding around NYC could get ugly, from the looks of it. (At least they have warning.) And heavy rains anticipated in many places with mountains could spell trouble downhill and downstream.

It looks fascinating, if not much like the storms so far on record.

[Ggelsrinc]

Of course WUWT is BS, but if you ask AGW supporters who is winning the PR on the debate, the Denalistas are winning. I think waiting until we are suffering enough consequences from AGW that it convinces people is a waste of time. From what I've seen of the evidence, people are sometimes paid to spread this misinformation. It isn't just the blogs, it's political discussion sites.

WUWT has been spreading propaganda for around 6 years, the site is well visited and the Denialistas are unchallenged for the most part. What the Denialistas need are large amounts of people refuting their propaganda with facts, even if it's just a post a day. It isn't like it's hard to find the errors to correct.

Getting back to the hurricane, it's going to be devastating in this mid-Atlantic region, because no one has listened for years how much damage another hurricane like Hazel will do. The beaches have been really built up since then.

[Apocalypse4Real]

One more forecast tool for Sandy and the US is:

http://hp6.wright-weather.com/eastnmm.shtml

[Apocalypse4Real]

There is one more tool form Wright Weahter that is helpful in modeling - that is the model run for all forecasts. Not all models depict the turn. The runs also forecast wind speeds.

See: http://vmcluster.wright-weather.com/model_tracks.html

[Twemoran]

Has anyone been noticing the west coast of Greenland?

Ogimet is showing 167km gusts and 62km sustained at Mittarfik Upernavik, with temps of 4C and rainfall.

Storm surges in the fjords must be tremendous & I doubt if anyone lives too far above sea level.

Terry

[Espen Olsen]

Twemoran,

Nothing special to be noted on the DMI site regarding South West Greenland?

[wayne]

Ggelsrinc I don't think it useful to go to a lower plain of confusion and basically back to the time before the 19th century. Svante Arrhenius who lived then is light years ahead of whatever they come up with. You know that they are absolutely inconvincible, might as well chat with a rock an obtain the same result. I rather discuss the subject with people who are skeptical when there is an error in physics, which is rather common, a person who is humble enough to recant mistakes is worth while to relate with. A reasonable dialogue starts from the recognition of the achievements of successful science. Of which neither WUWT or followers even dare admit. The larger public need be better educated, and Neven's and other websites alike are much needed to multiply in popularity. So the best thing you can do is focus the larger population to study correct science.

[P-maker]

Wayne,

I agree with you in this debate.
WUWT and similar sites are clear examples of the "Tragedy of the Coal, Oil & Gas Companies" (COGCs for short), whereas this site on the other hand is a fine example of where the "Trajectory of the Commons" is taking us.

Have a nice day.

[Ggelsrinc]

This one definitely goes into the weird category. Sandy is expected to still be at hurricane strength when it hits Delaware and may be Cat 2 before landfall around Cape May, NJ. I'm not aware of any history of Delaware being hit by a hurricane that was still classified as one.

Since we've had rain throughout the mid-Atlantic and in Pennsylvania before Sandy, I expect large power outages and trees uprooted by being water soaked, though the loss of leaves will help. The good thing is this path spares some more populated areas, like NYC. The path is about 5 miles north of me and I hope it goes south a little, because I live near where the state has less population. Even 10 miles could make a difference for some people and the Delmarva Peninsula should slow it down some before it gets near Baltimore. The hurricane could thread the needle through here and avoid areas with large populations.

It's about 19 hours before Sandy will be here and if I have electricity in the next few days, that will even be more weird than the hurricane.

[Neven]

Good luck, Ggelsrinc! Hope you're safe and back online soon.

[L. Hamilton]

Breezy now with a steady rain at our house. The university has shut down for two days.

Farther north, DMI and IJIS are both down to record low points for the date.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/sea_ice_DMI_this_date.png

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/sea_ice_DMI_this_date2.png

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/sea_ice_IJIS_this_date.png

[Ggelsrinc]

From what I know of the internet, more people read what is written than participate in a discussion or debate. If you aren't a Denialista, then you're just going to get an argument around those WUWT types, so even calling it a discussion is being polite. Whenever someone like that speaks about convincing them, I make it clear I'm not interested in convincing them. My purpose is to voice the alternative opinion so someone reading what is said isn't just getting only the Denialista's side.

I understand why people don't want to waste time talking to the hardheads and that's why I just use what they say to instruct others by refuting them.

I started off on Q&A sites and quickly learned to find out information, even if I had very little knowledge of the subject. I became involved with climate change on political sites, which can be anywhere on the political spectrum. I never visited a blog and used primary sources to make my cases. I noticed blogs in the images I posted, so I became aware of them, but avoided them to form my independent opinions and strategy.

I've had people tell me they are paid to spread misinfomation on the internet and that's why public opinion is what it is. The public are usually getting the Denialista's side.

This was my first visit to a blog, meaning I actually read the comments and didn't just use a chart or some image. I've checked the sources for images, so I'm aware of the reputation of blogs, be it good or bad. WUWT is about as much crap as someone can stuff in the subject of climate change. I'd like to see a hundred people a day go on there and say that doesn't make sense because of this, but it isn't wise to waste too much time there for most people. Some people can stay focused and handle a flock of trolls making ad hom attacks.

Neven has an excellent site for information on arctic sea ice and weather. I like the articles related to climate change and the glacier blog. If the best thing I can do is focus the larger population to study correct science, I have to spend some time where the larger population is and direct them to the sites that deal with science. I've recommended both Neven's and the glacier blog to people interested in those subjects.

[Jim Hunt]

A quick straw poll suggests around 35,000 "customers" are already without electricity in the Eastern US.

380 of them are in Washington DC.

[Fairfax Climate Watch]

here in Fairfax County, the storm center is still far away, and expected to make landfall much to the north, but winds are high, stressing the trees already and the rain is constant, very heavy at times. Pictures from before the rain started last night (Sunday night) are here: http://climatewatch.typepad.com/blog/2012/10/frankenstorm-sandy-begins.html#more with more planned to come as the storm moves along.

[idunno]

Hi all,

During the discussions of the Arctic Cyclone, there was discussion of "Ekmann pumping" affecting the water down to a depth of several hundred metres.

A very recent news article, which I have lost, suggested that the excessiive heat in last few months in the Gulf Stream off NE USA could be destabilising methane hydrates.

Does anyone here have a view on whether Sandy could potentially pump this extra Gulf Stream heat downwards, causing a much more significant methane release?

[idunno]

The Gulf Stream/methane hydrates link:

http://theidiottracker.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/gulf-stream-destabilizing-methyl.html

Does Sandy have the potential, via Ekmann pumping, to make this far, far worse?

[Fairfax Climate Watch]

excellent question.

[Fairfax Climate Watch]

Surface wind can induce a lot of changes. We know the storm has piled water up along the coast and that the waves are big everywhere and that the total size of tropical storm strength wind is the second largest since 1988. So, possibly yes.

Hopefully we have a temperature monitor system in place (that survives the storm) to capture this change if it happens.

As far as heating the methane hydrates, Wetzel cites a figure of 1 meter of sediment depth temperature diffusion per month. So if the temperature of the overlying water rises 5 degrees, then one month later the sediment at 1 meter deep would also record a 5 degree increase (assuming the overlying water stays constant at the +5 temp).

In relation to the arctic hydrates which are estimated to be at ~200 meters depth, and which have already seen the top 25 meters of sediment thaw, that would mean that a sudden and sustained increase in overlying temperature above thaw level would take 175 months to reach the methane.

[wayne]

#122 Ggelsrinc I agree the best thing to do is to enhance the understanding of real climate as opposed to the supernatural pre 19th century one.. The best we can do is explain it to those who choose to listen and study. That is time well spent. Eventually the knowledgeable will outnumber the superstitious, big weather events linked to AGW help. By all means educate and advise those who have learned to educate.

[FrankD]

idunno,

My first response is probably no (always subject to input from the better-informed). Sandy has (and will) mixed water between Cape Hatteras and Newfoundland. As far as I know there are no substantial methane clathrate deposits along those coasts.

Sandy was certainly pumped by the high SSTs off the NE US coast, and those high SSTs are consistent with / linked to (etc) high SSTs in the whole Gulf Stream that have persisted for some time, as seen in the anomalous conditions we have been seeing this year in the Barents Sea (and the Kara, to a lesser extent).

But the mixing you are talking about is "local", and would need to occur reasonably near a large deposit to have a marked effect. That might occur if it remains an intense storm over the North Atlantic and runs into Norway, which has some deposits along its coast.

Otherwise, yes Sandy has caused warmer water to be mixed deep, but by the time that water is carried on the Gulf Stream far enough to impact on some deposits, it would have dissipated a lot of that heat, and I doubt deep water temperature would be notably different where it matters, so I can't really see it being an issue.

If the wacc'y jetstream + cold front setup that drew it westwards on to land had not occurred, it would have hooked out to sea (the more normal path for these hurricanes). In that case it would be more likely to have had such an effect on Norwegian deposits.

Just a guess.