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2012.7754 -2.5848627 3.5689819 6.1538448
2012.7781 -2.6094835 3.6361835 6.2456670
2012.7808 -2.6235602 3.7192922 6.3428521
2012.7836 -2.7054472 3.7270412 6.4324884

6 days before 2007

2007.8000 -2.6349814 4.4081578 7.0431390



I've been following that too, but there had to be someone paying attention to refreeze all these years and I know I wasn't. When you are paying attention, you notice things like weather and also notice how things change over time.

I'll bet if you check, people independently decided to observe this refreeze.


WOW! SIE is recovering at a record pace!


Thought I'd just stir the pot.

L. Hamilton

Sea ice area anomaly doing Felix Baumgartner:


Chris Reynolds

I hadn't thought that the CT area anomalies would beat 2007, on that I was wrong.

What is interesting is that there's a big drop in anomalies over the last two figures, this drop is because the absolute area hasn't changed much over the last two days (about 1/10 of the previous day to day gains), and as the baseline average is rising strongly at this time of year, that blip has caused a big drop in anomalie (~100k between the last and previous days). This is why the anomalies have dropped below 2007 some days ahead of when it seemed likely.

The upturn in anomalies should start by day 300, start of the last week of October, if this year follows 2007 and 2011.



I don't think it's insane to fight against superior odds, where sound judgment says you are going to lose. I don't think I'm unique by being that way and somebody put to the test will do the same.

One of my favorite quotes, from Emiliano Zapata: It is better to die on your feet that to live on your knees.

I have every intention of going down fighting, if I have to. The fight won't be against Nature but against the very likely totalitarian ugliness that will break out at some point.

I am as married to our broken systems just as much as anyone else, mostly just by being alive and wrapped in the technology of our modern culture, but I do what I can to fall more towards the side of sanity, in various ways large and small, like making a conscious choice not to have children.

What I mean by "insane" is this: our cultural consciousness and "ways of being" in the world, whether liberal environmentalist or redneck, or budding Asian middle-class wannabe or dying EU denizen - all our very matter-of-fact and "normal" attitudes about how the world works, all of these are utterly disconnected from reality.

What reality? Of course, just the larger reality of being mammals on Earth, and everything that implies.

Being human and creating real "newness" in the world always has the touch of Icarus about it. So much so that one would think there might be a more generalized awareness, and conscious avoidance, of taking things too far. But that lesson hasn't gotten into our genetics yet, and that is the real problem.

What we can do to change course, and the worthiness of fighting for the light and finding some way to save ourselves - I am all for this. Unfortunately our tendencies so far in these directions are still wrapped up in all the confusion of our "old ways."

Back to the topic! I would peg the likelihood of a whack in the 2013 max, big enough to get more attention, at no more than about 20%. Nature just seems to have a diabolical way of stringing this out in such a way that we (the larger "we") keep getting lulled to sleep again and again. Honestly, that infuriates me almost as much as the denialists!


Before I quit for the night, I want to give you a reply. It is not usual we expose ourselves on a more personal level here on the blog. I think you’re a brave person. Though I was trained as a sergeant, I was never obliged to fight. Still, I see it as an honour to combat this self-induced threat we created. For me that combat lies in gardening through what comes, never quit trying to find solutions and helping others. But the future of one beautiful daughter that was given to me and my wife is enough to get me into action…

On the ice...
I just saw Henrietta Island got in the grip of the ice on MODIS. It's the last pic for this season. Have a nice time looking for that tiny rock!


I started my watch on naive... so I'll stick around here, Neven..

When looking for circulation effects produced in relation to low sea ice E/A/V, it is hard to sift through weather volatility.
The first 10 October days were characterized by a bulge on 500 Mb over the Alaskan Gulf and a stationary trough over western Europe. SLP was gradually going anomalously high over a large stretch of the Polar Circle.
Through the last four days these SLP highs extended up into the mid-troposphere. Now, there’s a long Eurasian stretched bulge over the PC. On the American side, Greenland gets a streak of warmth as it’s wrapped by a trough on the Canadian side and a ridge over the North Atlantic.
I can’t resist the image that cold, boundary layer winds rush from Ellesmere and Greenland to Siberia. They spread a thin layer of grey ice on the way. Heat is released on the Siberian peripheral Seas. Must show in snow over there, while the relatively warm, moist air rises up to form the stretched bulge. See all the evaporative clouds on MODIS?
Meanwhile, west Greenland is losing its first snowcover. Resembles 2010.
ECMWF proposes Europe to bask in the moist warm slipstream created by TC Raphael in its 10 days model. And a strong warming jet rises over Alaska and the Beaufort in the same period. That results in the strong low entering through Bering below. But models change…



The winds around bering st. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?sat=1
are all blowing from the north, driving surface water south, if this is a repeat of last years loss of fresher water i guess we can expect a similar big melt out from a lower base. Based on these assumptions, 1 the loss of fresh water inhibited the refreeze, having induced more AW into the beaufort, which was both warmer and saltier than the water it replaced. 2 being more saline the consolidation of the ice was also inhibited. 3 Any evaporation was replaced by AW, once the bering sea had frozen, leading to a heavier burden of salt at depth, increasing basal outflow. 4 the basal outflow from the beaufort takes place at the siberian end of the lomonosov ridge, adding turbulence, and the increased outflow induced AW all the way across to this area, 5 a certain amount of inertia in the flow of AW waters had built up and, so with the thaw the fresh water from the russian rivers pushed this AW to depth and eastward where it eventually ended up against banks island and the CAA, incidently keeping the pacific waters nearer the surface [which were in any case fresher than usual]. 6 the increased outflow from the beaufort led to an increased basal outflow through fram http://www.arctic.io/zoom/yDzd/0.5;0.5;1/Bathymetry inducing the increased outflow at the surface with the accelerated loss of ice that went with it.


Just read these, the first very interesting form of global engineering. http://arctic-news.blogspot.ca/2012/10/radio-and-laser-frequency-and-harmonic-test-ranges-for-the-lucy-and-haarp-experiments-and-their-application-to-atmospheric-methane-destruction.html
this on antarctica http://esciencenews.com/articles/2012/10/16/ice.sheet.retreat.controlled.landscape
and this http://people.uib.no/tel083/PeerReview/arthun_etal_2012.pdf which compliments this http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/24-3_beszczynska.pdf
but since what we had this year was different it's not covered in either nor ruled out.


I read your comment and will try to give my critique.
“winds…Bering St…blowing from north…loss of fresher waters”. Though I’m partially on the side of the oceanic influx alarmists, I’m not sure whether what you describe is a significant loss. Lodger has blogged several times on the role of the Bering St. in FI the 2007 event, so it’s possible the small profile might be more important than its 2,8 km2 suggests.

1. “ …fresh water inhibiting the refreeze…” I assume you’re talking fall 2011 here. As for relevant Atlantic Water reaching the Beaufort during the following winter, by a replacement draw: encouraged by FI the Arthun et al study I have speculated on AW diving under the winter sheet last year. There are not many other mechanisms that can explain why mean thickness in the Laptev was near 50cm and in the Beaufort 180cm (after relatively cold winter weather).
Whether loss replacement was the trigger I have my doubts. To me, the flow fits in the Arctic Boundary Current (ABC).

2. Both temp and salinity in the AW layer play a role, yes. But against any significant role speaks the fact that it is common knowledge that the AW layer lies quite deep, under the halocline, starts at -50 and ends at -600 m.
My own POV is that the parameters of the AW layer come from scientific work more than two years old. While change is so rapid, there may be new forces at work.Ekman pumping, small-scale eddying under polynia’s and large, hundreds of km’s long leads, upwards radiation of warmth (oh yes I know the halocline normally should kill that…). These might get the AW influence up, not evenly spread, but as many repeated mini-events. There are so very little buoys operational… easy to miss that.

3. I can’t initially follow the sequence of your events here… “…evaporation replaced by AW…once…Bering Sea had frozen…”. To my humble insight the Arctic Basin and its peripheral Seas were completely ice covered before the Bering Sea started showing off it’s anomalously large ice cover last winter. I don’t see that mechanism leading to much more Arctic Deep Water.

4. http://psc.apl.washington.edu/HLD/Lomo/Lomonosov.html
In this link I find work suggesting that the Lomonosov Ridge is more a barrier against the not very deep flux of the ABC. So I’m not sure whether you’re right in assuming that the portal for Beaufort Deep Water to get to the Atlantic is there. So for AW to be ‘induced’ by it to flow to that area is very speculative. Mind, I do think the ABC carried some!

5. For the Siberian rivers to get into your action here you stretch the process-time to a period September ’11 to May ’12. It is hard to distinguish between cause and effect! So I’m not compelled to see a deplacement of AW under the May-June sheet to the coast of Banks.
You don’t suggest as a sidekick that your mechanism was also a cause for the Beaufort polynia to open up and get really warm last summer. I'm glad you didn't because I hold a long period of insolation right there as the driver.
But you suggest the ‘piling up’ of watermass over there…
6. …would result in forced outflow of Arctic Deep Water through the Fram St.

I wonder… Scientific report was made of an anomalous bulge of fresh water in the Beaufort Gyre last summer. I never heard any proposal that that bulge would have the effect you suggest.
You sure have a point in ‘what goes in…has to come out’. And I agree that Atlantic influx plays a role in the demise of the ice cover. But IMO a creative set of mechanisms like you suggest isn’t necessary to nail that. Arthun et al show it as it appears in the Fram, the Olga St and St.Anna Trough.

So what mechanisms and to what extent would I suggest drove loss during ’11 and ‘12?

Tropospheric circulation change 25%, albedo loss 20%, insolation 15%, enhanced humidity 15%, mechanical stress 15%, Atlantic influx 10%
More than enough…

Thanks for inspiring me to think (in try and error).


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