Looking Forward, Looking Back

Here's a blog post that Kevin 'Doc Snow' McKinney published today over at HubPages, wherein he discusses last year's melting season, mentions some of the interesting science that has popped up since then, and ends with a look forward. The image below is commenter A-Team's improvement on art, depicting Caravaggio's Narcissus. In this version Narcissus' reflection is distorted by cracks in the mirror/ice. I'm sure you'll appreciate the metaphor.

Arctic Sea Ice Melt 2013:
Looking Forward, Looking Back

The spring equinox has now come and
gone, opening the latest 'melt season'
in the annual cycle of the Arctic sea ice.
But this spring is different from the thousands of springs that have come and gone as humans began to settle in cities, grow crops in the country and create kingdoms and complex religious establishments. This spring follows a remarkably low fall minimum--one that has observers of the ice paying very close attention indeed. What will the

The Records--How Bad Was It?

First, just how bad was the sea-ice in 2012? Approaching the annual September minimum, we knew that, compared with the beginning of the era of satellite observation in 1979:

• The sea ice extent was down about 32%;
• The sea ice area had declined around 39%;
• The sea ice volume, shockingly, was down roughly 76%.

(For an extended discussion of the differences among these measures, see A Love Story And A Clearance Sale; for a short statement of the difference between extent and area see the NSIDC FAQs.)

But, as we now know, previous records were thoroughly eclipsed this September. An increasing number of organizations have begun to provide data on the sea ice. They include the Arctic ROOS, a European consortium; the American National Snow and Ice Data Center; the Danish Meteorological Institute; IJIS, a Japanese-American collaboration; IMS, from the US National Ice Center; MASIE, also from NSIDC; Cryosphere Today, at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; and PIOMAS, at the University of Washington.

For MASIE, CT and PIOMAS, the previous record came from 2011; in all other cases, the record was from the 'death spiral' year of 2007.

Here is a summary of 10 different measures, their previous and new records, and the percentage change the new record represents.

Read the rest of this excellent article over at HubPages.

Comments

[Ssupak]

#DeniersTax: I'm really going to miss Intrade this summer. Hopefully someone will take advantage of the new internet gambling laws in NV, NJ and DE, which the DOJ surprisingly announced they wouldn't mess with, and bring back some prediction markets where I can get back to collecting my climate change denier's tax.

[Kevin McKinney]

Ah, 'chastising the ungodly,' quite in the tradition of Simon Templar--sometimes pecuniary revenge can be quite sweet...

[Sam]

I commented some time ago that I expected based on the trends that we would see the first ice free arctic summer day/week in 2015, possibly 2014 or 2016.

I also commented that I had somewhat expected and yet had not seen a change of state, that there hadn't been a step change as new conditions take over.

With the extensive shattering of the ice, including the multi year ice, I think we are now seeing precisely that. The ice has become thin enough that at the very end we are seeing a change in the governing forces. Now breakage of the thin sheet is taking over.

Unsurprisingly that increases the exposed surface, and allows for greater wave action to stir the ocean beneath. The calm flat surface is no longer an impediment.

It is still too early to say with any certainty, but I expect we have a very good chance that this will be the first year of at least a day with essentially no ocean ice (<1% of total area) in the entire arctic. I think the probability is now greater than 50%.

If it isn't this year, it is hard to see how the ice can recover sufficiently to prevent 2014 from being the year of the first ice free arctic summer.

And once that happens, the warming takes on new power. Very quickly we should see the melt extend far into the fall. Within a year of the first ice free summer arctic day we should see the first ice free arctic month, and possibly 2-3 months.

The breakdown of the jet stream that I think everyone here expected before it began, will continue and get worse.

As was noted today or yesterday, it may mean the complete breakdown of the northern circulation as the ferrel cell moves north due to the loss of thermal gradient.

It is all so stunning. Even expecting this doesn't make it any easier.

We are now embarked on a great transformation of the entire Earth.

We long ago passed the point of no return. The roller coaster long ago passed zenith and is now rocketing down the highest ride imaginable.

Sam

[Jim Hunt]

The mirror crack'd from side to side

With apologies to Sidney Harold Meteyard. Did I mention that my middle name is Holman?

[Kevin McKinney]

Nice, Jim! So, "the curse is come upon [us]," is it?

Oh, well, at least we're finally seeing the emergence of a "Post-Raphaelite" school of image-making. Just in time, apparently...

[Susan Anderson]

Jim Hunt, was just thinking of that quote in this context. That is brilliant too! Also viewing this video of snowbound cars in Cumbria:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21910180

(yes, highlands near Scotland, quite different from the southwest, I know. Our base was Port Isaac. Promise to desist on OT now.)

I would like to know what the prognosis for the Gulf Stream is, currently (AMOC).

[Jim Hunt]

Three people died in the West Country floods:

http://www.thisisdevon.co.uk/die-storm-strikes-Devon-Cornwall/story-18502559-detail/story.html

I'm in my customary position as the South West's least popular commentator! See this video for more on the AMOC:

http://econnexus.org/the-day-after-tomorrow-coming-soon/

The "conventional wisdom" is that the GIS would have to melt over a ludicrously short time period of time to stop it completely.

[Conrad Schmidt]

Could the cracked moving ice result in smaller melt ponds, thereby slowing the melting process?

[Espen Olsen]

Conrad;

That is a possibility, with the cracks we will probably not see the blue ice we saw last year, and many melt ponds will not be developed, the cracks will simply work like drains.

[Neven]

Interesting question, Conrad. Someone else asked the same thing yesterday or the day before.

Intuitively one would say: yes, less melt ponds, because they get drained. But I think it's also important to remember that although ice floes look small when seen from a satellite, they are actually huge, spanning several miles/kilometres across. In other words, there is plenty of room for melt ponds.

Melt ponds is the first thing I'm looking out for when the melting season gets underway, as it played quite an important role last year, I believe.

[Jim Hunt]

Thanks for your kind words Kevin.

I'm not sure that "the curse is come upon us" just yet. It certainly looks (to me at least) as though it's closing in rather more quickly than most would have us believe.

As Sam puts it "The calm flat surface is no longer an impediment."

To winds or waves or tides or sunbeams.