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Paul Beckwith

@Remko Kampen
I am interested in getting your opinion on the impact of the 60 odd ships that crossed the Arctic (north-east passage) last summer in relation to sea ice regrowth.

Assuming the Arctic is completely clear of sea ice near the end of summer melt this year (or within a few years), there will be an almost instantaneous massive increase in shipping traffic across the whole region. Presumably, that traffic will cause large water mixing and delay the onset of winter freeze-up. How large do you think these feedback's will be?

I would guess that when there is zero sea ice in the Arctic for a month or so we will literally see many 1000s of ships crossing...

Derek

The Mauna Loa weekly CO2 data is being shown as daily values at the moment, as the first 400ppm value seems to be imminent.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

sofouuk

Paul, ship numbers won't jump from 60 to 1000s within a year or two. and even if they did, you know how big the Arctic Ocean is. the mixing due to shipping, compared to the mixing due to wind/wave etc action, will be somewhere between negligible and nonexistent

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