PIOMAS August 2013

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

Although the gap with 2011 and 2012 has become smaller, this year's volume is still quite a bit higher: 597 and 1139 km3 respectively (last month the difference was 1729 and 1720 km3 respectively). Apparently that one week of weather conditions that were conducive to ice loss allowed this year to catch up a bit. But the return of cold and cloudy weather can be seen at the very end of the trend line as well, keeping 2013 just slightly above 2010.

Last month I ventured to say that the cloudy weather could perhaps be throwing PIOMAS' parameters off, but the fact that these results echo what's going on elsewhere on the various area and extent graphs, makes me conclude for now that PIOMAS is still very much on the ball. I think that it's fair to say that this year's weather conditions have prevented a repeat of last year's massive volume drop during the first two thirds of the melting season. I keep harping on that melting potential and one must never say never in the Arctic, but the time for time to slowly run out has just about started.

Here is Wipneus' version with the calculated "expected" 2013 values (dotted lines), based on the same date values of 1979-2011 and an exponential trend.
A caveat from Wipneus: "Note that the statistical error bars are quite large."

Instead of leaving 2 standard deviation territory, the anomaly from the linear downward trend has shot up again, a first since 2010:

Still, average thickness (crudely calculated by dividing PIOMAS (PI) volume numbers with Cryosphere Today (CT) sea ice area numbers) had a very steep drop in July, similar to the drop in 2010. This year's trend line is now lowest, probably signifying that the ice pack is spread out and thin at the edges (read: melting potential):

Here's average thickness for July 31st in metres, with change from last month between brackets:

• 2005: 2.38 (-0.09)
• 2006: 2.41 (-0.03)
• 2007: 2.15 (-0.04)
• 2008: 2.43 (+0.07)
• 2009: 2.06 (-0.05)
• 2010: 1.57 (-0.34)
• 2011: 1.56 (-0.19)
• 2012: 1.52 (-0.19)
• 2013: 1.48 (-0.23)

If you want to have a look at the data yourself, you can download the spreadsheet I use and update from GoogleDrive.

On the thickness graph from the Polar Science Center 2013 is now slightly above all three previous years:

Again, this year's weather seems to have been influential enough to stop the year-on-year drop in volume, which could lead to the same type of situation after 2007, where a very large drop was followed by a bounce or two. But let's wait another month or two before drawing any definitive conclusions.

Comments

[Dromicosuchus]

Reprieved, reprieved! This is a lot better than it could have been. Not good in any sense of the word, and the Arctic being the unpredictable beast it is things could always change at the eleventh hour, but this could have been a heck of a lot worse.

[Phil263]

As you rightly point out Neven, the PIOMAS results are consistent with SIE and SIA observations. This is a tick for the validity of the model.

[Tor Bejnar]

Even as I expected the PIOMAS volume and Polar Science Center thickness to be less than they are, the PICT thickness is what I expected. If PICT is "right" and PIOMAS is "off", then my gut sense of "the right ordering of the universe" is not consistent!

[Pete Williamson]

Sorry OT but any ideas what might be causing the .... dare i say pause ...... in the melt in the cryosphere today sea ice area?

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

[Pete Williamson]

OK it wasn't that OT and was partially answered in the post.

(Note to self: must remember to read the posts before commenting)

[Wipneus]

I have updated my graphics at ArctischePinguin for the latest data.

Monthly Data
Daily Anomalies
Daily data

[Fairfax Climate Watch]

the graph reading could be an artifact of their processing/rules. The Navy CICE model animations show a better approximation in my opinion than area charts of what's really happening.

[Neven]

any ideas what might be causing the .... dare i say pause ...... in the melt in the cryosphere today sea ice area?

Pete, I will discuss that very thing in today's forthcoming ASI update.

And thank you, Wipneus!

[Glenn Tamblyn]

So if the developments HYCOM are suggesting, certainly supported by concentration changes in the arc towards the Laptev, continue, what are the odds for a REALLY bizarre minimum? PIOMAS not lower than 2012 AND the Eastern Hemisphere and perhaps the Pole virtually ice free.

What a hair-raising 6 months it has been.

Also the fact that PIOMAS has pretty much paralled 2012 after the delayed melting in May says that even with the colder season with more clouds, ice dynamics, storms and maybe warmer water were still able to carry the load.

Imagine what we would have had if it had been more like 2007.

[John Christensen]

Great post for Sunday-morning reading Neven - looking forward to the ASI update later today!

And thanks also to Wipneus for the PIOMAS graphs! I am still trying to figure out a useful way to look at the 'Monthly Data' view, but daily anomalies and daily data both are very helpful.

From 'Daily Anomalies' it seems the strong decline in volume in 2010, '11, and '12 was caused by the significant anomalies developing from late April to late/end June, after which the volume anomaly would tend to normalize.
In 2013, this trend has been at least partly discountinued with a slower drop in anomalies from end April to end June, which was unexpected considering the state of the ice by the end of the freezing season, and where cyclonic activity has appeared as a key factor.

We know that the summer of 2007 was dominated by a strong high, which melted away lots of MYI, but has any comparison been made between late spring/early summer for 2010, '11, and '12 to consider any common reasons for the volume anomaly increases (A similar lack of usual cyclonic activity as in 2007, high air temps, compacting of ice, etc.)?

Referring to my frequent (and sorry about that!) comments around cyclonic activities, it is worth considering the factors causing cyclones, and what coming years will look like.
Summer cyclones require (Referring to discussion on 'On persistent cyclones' thread):
- Sea ice cover
- High land temperature

Land temperatures went up quickly this year, and perhaps helped kick-off the summer cyclone season, which then helped in keeping temps down and conserved the ice volume.

But:
As sea ice cover is declining, will we see more springs like 2007 (and perhaps 2010, '11, and '12), where the summer cyclone season does not kick off due to decrease in temperature difference? 2013 could then be the rare reappearance of 'old times', when summers had a high frequency of cyclones (see again 'On persistent cyclones').

Or:
Will we see the opposite: Early spring is the time of year, when SIA is holding up the best, with fractured, broken ice still covering a relatively large area. Will the broken ice cover combined with increasing land temperatures be enough to continue triggering the summer cyclones, so that we could see the 2013 type of weather extending for some years still (or even perhaps and increase in summer cyclones), which would extend the point where we will experience a summertime ice free Arctic Ocean?

[anthropocene]

Phil263,

IIRC from discussion on this blog on PIOMAS from a few years back: recent sea ice area values (and maybe extent too) are an input into the PIOMAS 'model'. I do not know the details of PIOMAS but I would expect these parameters to be a large factor in the PIOMAS results. Therefore PIOMAS being consistent with sea ice area values and/or extent is not a surprise.
Is there a brief summary of PIOMAS somewhere e.g. inputs, assumptions and method? It could be useful for all to learn and/or refresh on the PIOMAS model.

[P-maker]

Neven,

just saw your note about insanity on the Forum.

I would like to remind you, that this story: http://doc-snow.hubpages.com/hub/A-Love-Story-And-A-Clearance-Sale gave you a prominent place on the Gugl hitlist.

May I suggest a new thread under the headline:

End of Summer Clearance Sale

Cheers P

[P-maker]

Neven,

just saw your note about insanity on the Forum.

I would like to remind you, that this story: http://doc-snow.hubpages.com/hub/A-Love-Story-And-A-Clearance-Sale gave you a prominent place on the Gugl hitlist.

May I suggest a new thread under the headline:

End of Summer Clearance Sale

Cheers P

[Neven]

Sorry for the off-topic, but:

I would like to remind you, that this story: http://doc-snow.hubpages.com/hub/A-Love-Story-And-A-Clearance-Sale gave you a prominent place on the Gugl hitlist.

What exactly does this mean?

[Mike Constable]

Probably going off at a tangent, but:

What has happened to the smoke from the big wildfires, especially as they started early this year? I well remember watching smoke from a bonfire drifting in front of the sun one February - the light became orange and the warmth disappeared. If the smoke from the wildfires drifted into the Arctic early that could account for the dip in the DMI Daily Mean Temperatures in the Arctic graph.

I also wonder if smoke absorbed the sun's energy higher in the atmosphere whether that would tend to block air coming up from lower latitudes, so that areas like Siberia would not be able to dump heat to the Arctic. That could help explain the high temperatures experienced further south?

Would smoke also increase the out-going LW radiation, especially as it would be above much of the CO2 which is thought to be contributing to global warming?

Then there is also the possibility of the particles aiding the formation of extra clouds, increasing the albedo in the Arctic?

So are there any measurements that have been taken that show where the smoke has gone, or its effects?

[P-maker]

Neven,

I was referring to this post of your's: http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/the-untold-drama-of-northern-snow-cover.html

which came out, when I Googled "End of Summer Clearance Sale". I'm sorry I did not provide this link, but I thought that Kevin's story provided the best context for a new searchable headline, which would allude to the current gloomy prospects for the remaining sea ice towards the end of this summer.

In case you wish for an alternative headline, I would also like to suggest:

"Three strikes and you're out"

to symbolize the expected impacts of the forthcoming third persistent Arctic cyclone this year.

[P-maker]

Sorry Neven!

Wrong link. Here is your original one:

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/a-love-story-and-a-clearance-sale.html

Cheers

P

[Kevin McKinney]

Well, thanks for all those extra views, p-maker! Didn't expect that.

But I must say, I don't think it's really the end of the 'clearance sale'--unfortunately. In fact, I'm guessing that at the end of the season the 'price'--based as it is on volume, not extent or area--won't have changed much.