ASI 2013 update 8: the end is nigh

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has a good explanation of sea ice extent and area in their FAQ). I also look at other things like regional sea ice area, compactness, temperature and weather forecasts, anything of particular interest.

The animation on the right consists of NSIDC
sea ice concentration maps, one for each ASI update.

Check out the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website (ASIG)
for daily updated graphs, maps, live webcam images and
the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (ASIF) for detailed discussions.

September 2nd 2013

We have almost reached the end of the 2013 melting season, perhaps even earlier than in the last couple of years. After months of predominantly cyclonic weather - that has pushed the ice pack apart, but at the same time preserved a lot of the first-year ice - there are large patches with low sea ice concentrations within the ice pack (also see this recent blog post). Here's an animation of images provided by Wipneus, based on Uni Hamburg data, showing what has happened from August 28th to 31st:

There's some compaction going on, but the open water within the ice pack is easier to freeze and ice floes get re-connected to each other. This will slow down whatever melt, compaction and transport there is left, or even supersede it and thus effectively end the melting season.

Of course, it all depends on the exact weather conditions (more on that later this week), and we have to keep in mind that a significant part of the ice pack is very fragile. In fact, a third of the ice pack that was almost cut off from the main ice pack north of Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago, would have probably melted out if weather conditions hadn't been the exact opposite from previous melting seasons. More on that later as well.

Let's first have that overview of the current situation.

Sea ice area (SIA)

Because Cryosphere Today SIA data wasn't forthcoming yesterday, I decided to wait one day with this update to have the full month displayed on the graph:

I didn't think it was possible, but area-wise 2013 is now even above 2009. Apparently this can happen when the weather isn't conducive to ice decrease (melt, compaction and transport) for almost the entire melting season, even if you start out with a record amount of first-year ice. Fascinating stuff. After the lowest average daily decrease since 2006 for the month of August, 2013 is almost 1.3 million km2 behind last year!

The SIA minimum usually occurs somewhere in the first two weeks of September, but given the way things have proceeded this melting season, I wouldn't be surprised if it happened a couple of days ago. Either way, it won't be going much lower than this.

Here's the link to my updated CT SIA spreadsheet.

The SIA anomaly is still below the -1 million km2 mark. We've gotten used to records getting broken in the past couple of years, but it's good to remember that the Arctic is still quite far away from the 1979-2008 average: 

Sea ice extent (SIE)

The IJIS SIE numbers are slightly less dramatic than CT SIA, with 2013 on a par with 2009 and 2010:

The 2013 trend line went below the 2005 minimum today and already was below the 2006 minimum. It will probably go under the 2009 minimum in a couple of days, and with a similar end sprint to the one we saw in 2010 it could even end up below 5 million square kilometres. But that's still 1.5 million above last year's stunner.

Here's the link to my updated IJIS SIE spreadsheet.

Cryosphere Today area per IJIS extent (CAPIE)

CAPIE also keeps showing us that this year has been cold enough to completely minimize the role melt ponds have in this metric:

Although I still think that clouds also influenced the high CAPIE numbers throughout the melting season, it's clear that the massive divergence we saw this year has been fully compensated by the cold. The lowest CAPIE percentage of 65.87% was reached on July 23rd, almost two weeks earlier and 10% higher than last year.

For a thorough explanation of what CAPIE is, read the CAPIE subsection in this ASI update. Here's the link to my updated CAPIE spreadsheet.

Regional SIE and SIA

Regional graph of the week, taken from the Regional Graphs page:

With some late compaction action on the Siberian side of the Arctic (see animation at the top of the post), SIA in the Laptev Sea has made a final dip. This basically has caused the Northern Sea Route to finally open up, but ships would have to go around the islands of Severnaya Zemlya if they really want to see as little ice as possible, as there's still some left in Vilkitskiy Strait. So that streak is still running (since 2007), but the main route of the Northwest Passage has remained closed for the first time since 2008.

We can see the changes in the past two weeks on this map that Wipneus has custom-made for this ASI update (based on Uni Hamburg data, see here).
Red = ice two weeks ago, open water now; blue the other way around:

The edge of the ice pack has retreated even more on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, almost reaching 85° N. With temps dropping low, freezing the water in the 'holes' I discussed last week, we're not going to see a completely ice-free North Pole (that is connected to the Atlantic Ocean even). But this year came even closer than 2010.

Sea Level Pressure (SLP)

This animation of Danish Meteorological Institute SLP maps from the past 15 days shows us just how weak weather conditions have been for melt, compaction and transport:

No big highs, no big lows, except for a short reverse dipole nothing noteworthy really. This is the atmospheric neither-fish-nor-flesh set-up that is best for preserving sea ice.

So let's have a look at what the 6-day weather forecast from the ECMWF model has in store, as it might give us a clue about when we're going hit that minimum (click for a larger version):

Now there's an interesting forecast. It seems a large - though not intense - high is taking over the central Arctic and then moves over the Beaufort. In previous years this meant that the minimum would take a while longer to be reached. Although this year nothing quite went the way I expected, I think that we won't be seeing an IJIS extent minimum in the next week. I'm not sure about CT SIA though.

Temperatures

Air temperatures have gone up quite a bit over the Arctic Ocean, when compared to two weeks ago:

This is also reflected on the DMI 80N temp graph:

The quick turnaround makes me suspect that perhaps some of the water in the Arctic Ocean is already releasing heat so that it can start to freeze up, but it could just be warm air being blown in from somewhere.

This is also reflected in sea surface temperatures on the DMI SST anomaly map, showing lower temps all over the place compared to two weeks ago:

I'm really curious to see whether - and if so, how much - SIA and SIE can still drop some more.

Conclusion

We're nearing the end of a melting season that would've fit in snugly between 2008 and 2009. Weather conditions have been completely opposite to what I've seen since the inception of this blog in 2010, highlighted by the three cyclones we witnessed from May onwards. But let's save that analysis for when the minimum is reached and we can weigh the difference between expectations and reality.

Later this week I will try to post about a new feature I haven't finished yet on the ASIG that helps somewhat in determining the timing of the minimum. It's just one of several things that slipped through my fingers this year, and so I apologize for not having been able to cover this melting season as closely as I did the previous three melting seasons. I have great excuses, of course, like the fact that I'm in the process of building a house (slowly reaching its climax in the next 2-3 weeks), and the melting season being less of a spectacle with slow melting and an extremely cloudy Arctic. But still, there's always plenty of stuff to talk about when it comes to that fascinating place that is the Arctic. Next year will probably be better.

I don't know about you, but I'm looking forward to the next PIOMAS update!

Comments

[NJSnowFan]

Good Post Neven, If you can get close up of satellite while that Russian ice breaker is heading toward the north pole. I bet you will be able to see it's path while it crushes through the ice. So many icebreakers world wide now and I have no idea how many new ones will be sailing soon.

My post from today on the Healy blog.
Any answers???
Another Large Russian Ice Breaking/Destroying ship headed in the Direction of the North Pole.
The Russians love to Crush the Arctic ice up. Since they started their fleet in the late 70's the Ice has been crushed ever since. More and more ships are taking shorter route and Russian ice breakers are keeping the route ice free.
http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=UGSN
http://www.arctic-lio.com/node/188
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admiral_Makarov_(icebreaker)

Large Ice breaking ships cause more damage to the Ice then everyone believes.

Look at south pole Ice breaking ship has been doing so called research in an area for some 400 or so hours. Look at the sea ice sat loop and where the ice crushing ship was. The ice was thin and water opened up from the ship.
put in 400 hours in tracker box.
http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=WBP3210
Run this loop of the area and where the Ice breaking ship was at the time, few days latter ice opened up/thin.
Some of you have better access to Actual satellite pictures , match them . http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/CT/animate.antarctic.color.4.html

Ice Breaking ships are a main cause of Arctic sea ice loss is my feeling.

[Shared Humanity]

Heh!

[NJSnowFan]

Interesting how this buoy is on a large ship, Another Ice Breaker? with no tracking signal.#9 http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#overview/gpstracks
No ships in area but data shows it was in warn location for a day like inside the ship to 18C on 8/31 http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy9/weather
Picture of some one now on the deck of the ship in the cam pict. http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy9/camera
No ships in the area, http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shiplocations.phtml

[Pete Williamson]

Neven, I think at some point you're going to have to stop being surprised at the lack of melt (or the persistence of extent) this year :P

It looks like this might be a 'new high' post the 2007 MYI clear out. It may be better understood as part of the natural variability and if we want to understand what's going on then we should be looking at the average extent since 2007 rather than expecting records to be broken. There is probably too much focus on record-breaking in the arctic. Given that ice can persist (or fail to persist) for 5 years or more suggests we should be trying to understand processes on that timescale as well.

Not only has a lot of FYI survived but so has much of the SYI (2nd) which is going to start showing up in the MYI category next year. It possible that at least a bit of a 'recovery' in the MYI is on the cards.

[Pete Williamson]

Just meant to add the survival of alot of the Beaufort Sea ice make contribute to that.

Cheers

[Jim Hunt]

NJSnowFan - It seems the Admiral Makarov will be continuing past the North Pole in order to rescue Sébastien Roubinet and Vincent Berthet. See the forum for more details.

[NJSnowFan]

Another Large Ice Breaking ship crushing the ice around Antarctica.

The more I dig the More ships I am finding but some have their tracking device off.

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/Polarstern_AMSR2_visual.png

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=DBLK

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/Polarstern_AMSR2_visual.png

[NJSnowFan]

Try this again. Another large Ice breaking ship crushing the ice around Antarctica.

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=DBLK

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/Polarstern_AMSR2_visual.png

[Neven]

Neven, I think at some point you're going to have to stop being surprised at the lack of melt (or the persistence of extent) this year :P

I know, I know. I just can't get over it! :-D

Not only has a lot of FYI survived but so has much of the SYI (2nd) which is going to start showing up in the MYI category next year. It possible that at least a bit of a 'recovery' in the MYI is on the cards.

Just meant to add the survival of alot of the Beaufort Sea ice make contribute to that.

Definitely. This is now the number 1 point of interest for me. A couple of melting seasons like this one in a row, and you could really start speaking of a recovery. But just one 2007/2011/2012 year could negate all of it as well.

As always, it's all about the thickness and volume. Ice age doesn't guarantee thickness.

[John Christensen]

Thanks for another great - and awaited - post Neven!

From the slow refreeze at the center of the pack I would agree that area will be close to its minimum, and also comparing to 2009 on CT, I would not think it would be possible for the SIA to drop 300k km^2 to equal 2009 at this point.

While SIA and to a lesser degree SIE have done exceedingly well this year, it will be very interesting to review the next PIOMAS update, but just looking at the ice I would expect daily volume to stay right above 2010 and not reaching 2009 levels. But let's see..

[Jim Hunt]

NJSnowFan - As luck would have it I'm keeping very close tabs on the position of the Babouchka. Her tracking device is currently still turned on. Why don't we perform a joint experiment? Let's see if we can find any evidence of the Admiral Makarov's approach and/or subsequent departure from any of the satellites?

In the meantime please stop repeating yourself. I think we've all got the idea by now.

[Phil263]

2013 has just past 2009 minimum SIE (bar a correction!)
2009 minimum: 5,249 k, SIE 2/9/2013: 5,240 k
SIA is still well above the 2009 minimum though (3,424 k). I agree with John above and cannot see that SIa will drop by another 300 k this year.

[Ned Ward]

Large Ice breaking ships cause more damage to the Ice then everyone believes. [...] Ice Breaking ships are a main cause of Arctic sea ice loss is my feeling.

No. Really, no. In the big picture of Arctic/Antarctic sea ice extent, the effect from icebreakers is too small to detect.

Example calculations here

[John Christensen]

On breaking records:

Unless something extraordinary happens in the coming week, we will be looking at the largest interannual difference in SIA minimum between 2012 and 2013.

It goes to illustrate a key feature of post-2007 ice pack behavior: A very mobile ice pack, which would be subject to strong melting in most years, but could be preserved under ideal conditions as we have seen this year.

[Doomcomessoon]

I must admit that I have a bad record when it comes to making sea-ice-predictions, though, I have to say, that I will be extremely surprised if we were to see an even close to normal refreeze rate during late september and early October this year. The areas north of Franz Josef, that one would expect to freeze early, are perhaps hotter than ever, and the areas of the Central basin, ESS and CAA that would usually freeze in October are allready covered in close to 100% consentration ice. When the relativly small amount of easy-to-freeze ruble have frozen, I expect to see some steep drops in SIA anomaly, especially if that high pressure system decides to stay for a while.

[Jim Hunt]

Would you believe that the Barents is biting back?

Click the link to explore on NASA Worldview. Click on the image for a larger version.

[Hans Verbeek]

"Ice Breaking ships are a main cause of Arctic sea ice loss is my feeling."
Well,... I guess they contribute a little bit.

Anyway, it costs a lot of diesel fuel to break up Arctic seaice. Peakoil will also mean peak-icebreaker. ;-)

[Magma]

To me it seems remarkable how little data is being released from Cryosat-2, or how slowly it is coming out. One would expect at least a few researchers would be reporting ice thickness measurements in a more timely fashion.

[Neven]

Magma, I believe CryoSat can only measure thickness during fall and winter.

[Paddy]

@NJSnowFan,

We looked into the potential impact of increased ship traffic, including but not limited to ice breakers, over on the sea ice forums, and based on some basic number-crunching it really didn't look like they could account for very much of the melt.

@Hans Verbeek

"Anyway, it costs a lot of diesel fuel to break up Arctic seaice. Peakoil will also mean peak-icebreaker. ;-)"

Not necessarily; the biggest ones are nuclear-powered.

[Nigel Williams]

Not necessarily; the biggest ones are nuclear-powered.

Really? Nuclear-powered main bearing lubricating oil. Interesting! :)

[Colorado Bob]

Warmest August on Record at South Pole

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/show.html

[jdallen_wa]

@Jim Hunt - wow - is what I'm seeing the disintegration of the pack between Svalbard and the "Pole Hole" - looks like it - seems all of the "small stuff" interstitial between the larger flows has vanished. I'd also say there's what looks like a lot of "foam" on the water underneath the clouds being spawned by the warmer water.

Are we *sure* temps are dropping enough to prevent more bottom melt via deep mixing? I wouldn't expect much, but it might allow the slow glide to the bottom to continue a little longer.

[Ostepop1000]

It is a rebound.

The winter max rebounded a decade ago.

The average is flattening out.

And the summer minimum is now following suit.

There was a big change after the incredibly huge 1997 El Nino, after which the patterns changed.

Warmer weather now in lower northern latitudes, and colder in northern latitudes towaeds the pole.

We live up here in the arctic and we feel it from day to day. There has been a big change now, it is warmer in middle northern latitudes, but the Aectic is getting colder.

This pattern will persevere.

This freezing season will be abrupt and severe.

We have seen first:

The winter max stalling.

Then the year average stalling.

Now we will see the summer minimum stalling and start to rise.

You heard it here first.

From someone who actually lives north of the arctic circle.

[Ostepop1000]

Not sure I got it quite across but here it is:

Conclusion: the pole is refreezing.

And it will for decades.

[jdallen_wa]

Conclusion: the pole is refreezing.

Ostepop1000, I hope you're right, but I'm afraid I'm a bit more pessimistic.

2001 & 2008 saw major pull backs from the decline in volume, 1200 and 700 KM3 respectively, yet they were followed respectively, by continuing decline. I fear that pretty much summarizes what is happening here, not a reversal in trend.

Yes, I think the pole will refreeze for decades to come, but I doubt we will see a significant pull back from the steady march to an ice-free arctic sometime in the next century or so.

I wish I could be around to watch.

[Neven]

Conclusion: the pole is refreezing.

And it will for decades.

Ostepop1000, I won't casually dismiss what you're saying as you were right back in May about how this season would play out. I'm repeating your statement, because I'm very impressed by it (in retrospect, at the time I was annoyed by your comments ;-) ):

I will go with 5.5.

Weather patterns are noticably changing in this northern land and this time. AO is turning positive. Polar vortex strengthening. Arctic temperatures below average.

Based on experience with similar years, I predict, with the aid of my crystal ball, that these conditions will persevere throughout this summer, significantly reducing the melting of the sea ice compared to the previous few years.

Still, to be sure you're right in the long-term as well, I'd have to see two or three melting seasons such as this one in a row. And preferably I'd also like to understand the mechanism behind it, and how it negates AGW.

Oh, and volume. Don't forget volume.

[marktime]

It's interesting to note that there is another indicator apparently "flatlining": global mean temperature over Land and Sea for the last 10 to 15 years or so.

Nonetheless, the signal at Mauna Loa continues to rise and the slope of monthly ice extent anomaly is inexorably negative so whatever is going on will one day, I'm sure, come back to bite us in the bum!

The Arctic pole re-freezing? Not for much longer if the data is to be believed.

[John Christensen]

Regarding weather this summer and melting,

As we have discussed the cyclones were significant and also a main factor in determining the Arctic weather and temperatures this summer.

However, as argued in the 'On persistent cyclones' thread, the main driver for these cyclones is the temperature differential between ice-covered ocean and heated surrounding land masses. A positive AO index is mentioned as having a slight positive correlation, but as we now know AO has been switching with no significant pattern, and was not in a positive phase when PAC-1 2013 entered the scene (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html).

As I argued as well early in the summer, we had considerably more ice in the CAB and neighboring seas compared to 2012, and combined with strong early heating of land masses in North America and Siberia, this was probably enough to kick-off and sustain 'the summer of cyclones' we have had.

In theory this could act as a negative feedback; increased continental heating acting to isolate Arctic air masses by enforcing a kind of polar vortex, even if this is not the right term for what we have seen this year.

That said ice area and extent is one thing, but it will be very interesting to follow the net result of this summer from a volume perspective, and how it positions us for the coming freeze.

[John Christensen]

In the last PIOMAS update we had almost 1.75k km^3 more ice than last year at the same time, a 29% increase. A lot of this may be weaker FYI, but it is still ice, and a lot of it.

If the ice has been able to sustain that level in August as well, we will have a much more solid base on which to build the winter ice, and I do not think it matters much that a wide area consists of scattered floes, since the floes will help get the temperature low enough to freeze up the water.

But as Neven and others are pointing out - just one more year like 2007 or 2012, and we will be much worse off again, so I would consider this year a variation rather than recovery.

[Neven]

John, I believe you're referring to the PIOMAS update before the last PIOMAS update where I wrote this:

Although the gap with 2011 and 2012 has become smaller, this year's volume is still quite a bit higher: 597 and 1139 km3 respectively (last month the difference was 1729 and 1720 km3 respectively).

[Neven]

Hmmm, very big drop on IJIS today, almost 112K. I think this will be revised, but if it won't, it will be the latest century break in the 2005-2013 record.

[John Christensen]

Neven, I actually just took my ruler and measured the difference between the end of the 2012 and 2013 lines on my screen from the PIOMAS daily Arctic ice volume chart, so not very scientific, sorry.. ;-)

When we get to end of season, it would be great to compare daily PIOMAS data with the weather events to see if you can tie the daily volume melt level directly to the cyclones, or if the correlation is more indirect, ie. that the cyclones caused lower temperatures overall, but that volume reduction did not correlate strongly with the events.

One preliminary result I see, is that while I had previously considered changes in ocean currents to be a much bigger and significant player for Arctic sea ice melting, it does seem that atmospheric conditions are more important, while the heating of the oceans is a more subdued while contributing factor.

[Jim Hunt]

NJSnowFan - Séb and Vincent (and Babouchka!) were picked up by the Admiral Makarov earlier today. See:

http://econnexus.org/admiral-makarov-meets-babouchka-in-the-central-arctic/

Whilst conditions have been a bit cloudy recently, I'm blowed if I can see any evidence of the Admiral Makarov's passage on Worldview or AMSR2. Perhaps you will have more luck?

[Kevin McKinney]

ostepop said:

"The winter max rebounded a decade ago."

I have to say, I can see little evidence of that here:

http://i137.photobucket.com/albums/q210/Sekerob/Climate/ArcticSIEDaysMillionStepMelts.png

Admittedly, a quick and dirty way to look at the question. But still, I would be interested to know the basis for ostepop's 'max rebound' claim.

[Climate Changes]

@Kevin
I'd guess based on a negative ENSO. That strong SST anomaly off the pacific coast of S. America and the below average cold Arctic temperatures have gone hand in hand over the melt season.

[Kevin McKinney]

"...the below average cold Arctic temperatures have gone hand in hand over the melt season."

Well, sure. I've commented several times on how cold the CAB has remained this melt season.

But he's talking about a rebound of the seasonal *maximum* which is of course not within 'the melt season,' and specifically refers to the timeframe of a decade. I'm puzzled, as I haven't noticed anything suggesting that myself, and am interested to know what the claim is based upon. (It's always particularly interesting to be surprised by something.)

Perhaps if I get a little time I'll try to crunch the numbers for the seasonal maxima and see what some basic regression has to say about this.

[NeilT]

nsidc sie shows it as 5.22 as of yesterday. It's swinging pretty much back and forth right now with a retained downward trend.

Might break 5m before it stops but is unlikely to maintain that as an average.

Unless all the water heat up there stops re-freezing for a while. Possible but unlikely.

[Villabolo]

Ostepop:

"There was a big change after the incredibly huge 1997 El Nino, after which the patterns changed."

Ostepop, take a look at 2010's El Nino here http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_July_2013_v5.6.png

[Jim Hunt]

The latest Arctic Sea Ice News is out. A Real Hole Near the Pole.

It may seem contradictory for a polynya-like opening to form near the pole while temperatures are lower than average, but it highlights the complex interplay between the ice, atmosphere, and ocean.

[Sam]

Osteopop1000,

Whistling in the dark, hoping the bears don't bite I see.

One data point does not a trend make.

Annual variation is expected. As many noted, just applying probabilities to the observed exponential downward trend to zero with observed annual variation, the probabilities suggested a high liklihood for a bounce this year.

Seeing the changing states of the ice and atmosphere, others of us climbed out on a limb thinking that we were seeing signs of a state change here at the very end of the ice. Not so. Despite all these signs, the changes are behaving as statistics suggests they should.

On balance that still means an ice free Arctic summer (<1% I've) in 2015 plus or minus a year or two.

[LRC]

IMHO just as 2007 was the perfect scenario for melting ice. 2013 has turned out to be the perfect one for retaining ice. The forecasters also are having a tough time with Atlantic hurricane numbers this season also. Which our favourite 'experts' are jumping all over as to proving that everyone else is wrong. Although they have done their usual of picking the wrong main reason as to why. They have said is was because of cool waters, whereas if you had followed an almost day-to-day account, it had more to do with very dry air off the African coast.
My uneducated thinking is that weather systems got in the way of each other this year and ended up messing up the forecasters predictions. As to long term all the ingredients for a continuing lower ASI are still around: high and rising CO2, rising ocean temps, rising sea levels, weak erratic jet stream, rising northern hemisphere land surfaces and so on and so on.
As I have said many times before, you can not look at what is happening in the Arctic in the long term in isolation of the rest of the world. A prime example is the Antarctic. It was thought by some because of the ocean currents and wind patterns that the very vast majority of its ice sheets would remain untouched for a long time to come. We are now finding that was wrong. The heated up ocean currents are doing an end around and coming in the back door by first melting the ice between the land and the ground ice edge farther out to sea. The most pessimistic are now talking about major collapses around the majority the Western Antarctic in the next few decades.
Back to the Arctic it is my belief that although the extent and area have made a major rebound this season, the quality of that ice is still very poor and all we need is a 'normal' summer next year and all the gains will vanish very quickly.
The case in point is that for all of the negatives for ice melting this year, if you take the 2013 max and the 2013 min. you still end up with a fairly substantial melt off. That is no real rebound whatsoever.

[VaughnA]

LRC, I am wondering if the cold Arctic summer and the lack of intense hurricanes in the Atlantic so far are directly related. There have been numerous comments about the Ferrel Cell, the Polar Cell, and the Hadley Cell either combining or splitting into 4 cells. As I see it, the evidence points to 4 cells forming with the Polar cell becoming more isolated thereby keeping the Arctic colder and the Hadley cell being squished closer to the equator. This would certainly explain why there is lots of dry air suppressing the tropical storms where they normally live. This does not mean this pattern will continue into the colder months. It could be a transitory phase to a two cell system as well.... I would like to hear more about any new evidence that supports or debunks this possibility. I read this blog extensively, so I do not need to be pointed to earlier articles discussed here. Thanks.

[Sam]

VaughnA,

If anything, it looks to me like the Ferrel and polar cells have merged, squishing the Ferrel cell out of existence.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?npole_h250_wind+/-168//

I have been looking for any imagery or analysis tools that might tell us whether the air column is rising or falling across large areas, but to no avail.

I haven't followed this for anywhere near long enough to have any idea whether what I am seeing is part of a normal annual pattern, or something new, or a complete lack of understanding on my part.

If the Ferrel cell is indeed gone, then at least as an argument, we might be seeing air rising over the pole, cooling in the upper atmosphere, flowing south and then diving on the north side of the now unitary jet stream to then flow north near the surface, and cooling everything north of there.

Is that reflected in ground based data, or satellite data? Or is it refuted? I do not know. As a first blush thought model it suggests things we might look for, but little else.

If true, or if some variation on the idea is true, it is hard to imagine how a two cell (or any even number cell) system could be stable. If it isn't, then this might be the temporary step to reach the single cell, jet steam free, equible climate. But that suggestion stands on the shoulders of way to many uncertain speculations to stand much scrutiny.

Sam

[Werther]

Hi Sam,

I use NCEP/NCAR data available on www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl (the monthly version) to get some grip on general patterns. On the Forum I hope to array analysis for this year’s melt season in a clear thread, that might also be extended to surveying atmospheric rearrangement.

My amateur work gave me the impression that, at least, last winter a general rise in geopotential height over the Arctic was traceable. I’m looking at summer, now that data are in for August.

I also have the impression that the Ferrell cell fades, not in a sense of being gone abruptly, but getting less and less present.
I’m focusing on the Rossby waves, that seem to “overrun” the ideal Ferrell circulation and contribute to a “doughnut” low circling Greenland.

[John Christensen]

Sorry, a bit off-topic with a PIOMAS teaser and what kind of recovery we have seen this far:

Volume reduction in selected years between max and end-July/day 212 (latest PIOMAS data for 2013):

2006: 13.252k km^3
2007: 14.631k km^3
2009: 15.191k km^3
2012: 15.958k km^3
2013: 14.719k km^3

We typically regard 2009 as a decent year with reduced melting, but as you see the melting was actually substantial. The big difference between 2009 and 2012 was that 2009 started out with much more ice at max, 25.082k km^3 rather than just 21.923k km^3 in 2012.

In 2013 we started out equally bad with 21.823k km^3 at max - 100k km^3 lower than 2012 max - and to make things worse with the highest volume of FYI recorded since 1979.

What IMO has made the past twelve months a fantastic period is both the incredible volume build-up during the winter season, and then followed by a lower than usual volume melt-out. What makes that lower volume melt spectacular is that it had the highest percentage of FYI recorded, so it was reasonable to expect faster melting rates.

Looking at daily freeze rates for the 2012/13 winter season, it does seem like the amount of days with stronger freeze rates (above 100k km^3) was higher than in recent years and especially that strong freeze extended further into 2013 (day 24-47, and day 54-58) - the period where we saw extensive cracking of the central ice pack, combined with the SSW event.

August has been kind to the ice as well (considering SIA and SIE data, as well as limited transport via Fram), so I would expect that this month will make the total melt of 2013 lower than in 2007 as well, even if not by much.

But again: The freeze last winter actually appears to be slightly more spectacular than the reduced melting this year..

[Werther]

On the UniBremen graph/map for today...
A detail, maybe small, but I see the ice boundary on the Atlantic side has reached 85dG North.
Yes, the Laptev Bite came further up last year, but had the form of a polynia. This is straight, icefree ocean N of Svalbard and Frantsa Yosefa. Over the deep Nansen Basin.

[Jim Hunt]

This is from the University of Hamburg rather than Bremen, but tells much the same story:

There's even a hint of a "Laptev Bite" this year as well.

[John Christensen]

From the DMI data, you see that it is cold in the vicinity of the Pole (-5 - -10C), but also that the low placed in Fram must be pushing warmer air and water into the area between the Pole and Franz Josef Island, helping to break up the ice:

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/weather/arcticweather.uk.php

On this map you see even more clearly that the salinity level has increased north of FJ Island (Select Surface Salinity as parameter and Arctic as geographic domain), which I guess indicates currents playing into this as well as wind/weather:

http://ocean.dmi.dk/anim/index.uk.php

[NuinZeeland]

i like that Wipneus animation. Hope to see more...

[Werther]

Thanks for the UH graph/map, Jim!
Having layered this in my CAD, I see exciting retreat on the Atlantic side in the margin of an almost finished season.
The MODIS ice boundary for today seems to have retreated another 35 km since the last UH-map, right N of St. Anna Trough (a deep undersea ravine leading from the continental shelf into the Nansen Basin between FY- and Ushakov Island).
In the Laptev, retreat has been so strong that there's just a shimmer of ice left on its outer boundary with the CAB.

[wayne]

Werther the Wipneus animation above is showing a great deal of compaction, EOSDIS scant cloudless views demonstrate what appears to be grey or very thin ice forming, But that is nothing, it offers no resistance to the larger thicker flows, so compaction is in along with wave action bashing the rotten sea ice especially over the significantly warmer European and Russian side of the Pole. The Arctic Ocean basin Gyre is making a slow comeback, compaction is more persistent and may reveal just how great this years melt was.

[Eli Rabett]

The temperatures on the Arctic coast of European Russia are off scale today. 26C in Khatanga, which is maybe why that part of the ice pack is melting.

[Allen McDonnell]

Werther I am with Sam on this one, I think the cell structure of the northern hemisphere is becoming unstable, and I don't believe even numbered structures are stable for extended periods of time. The sooner you can get back to us on the summer data the better I will like it ;) though I hope I am wrong of course.

[VaughnA]

Sam and others, I was suspicious that an even numbered cell system would be short lived at best. So, if we are indeed headed to a one cell system that will really mess things up. We could have freezing conditions in the tropics and tropical conditions in the Arctic. I guess 26C is pretty close to tropical. The new analyses of what is happening to the cells will be very interesting.

[Espen Olsen]

IJIS:

Major changes, please read more:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,230.msg14570.html#msg14570

[Espen Olsen]

IJIS:

Major changes with the IJIS numbers, please read more over at the forum, cant link because it ends up in the spammer!

[wayne]

Since weather wind dynamics affected the very appearance of the sea ice pack, so will compaction may affect the minima date. It goes like:
the pack is not compressed and therefore the minima is not as consolidated as usual, when really compacted quick 'cementing' happens and start of new ice is triggered from a colder air base, causing a natural over the pack anticyclone. Today is another matter, the mixed not so compact pack is not the same as last year, favoring a warmer anticyclone at about the Chuckchi sea. Causing the compaction to continue creating an illusion of further melting, it is melting but compaction makes it appear stronger. What may happen is a false bottom minima, where it freezes between the pack while it compaction continues, again leaving the impression that minima is reached. Surface temperatures are just about there for this to happen.

[Susan Anderson]

Eli and anyone else re Khatanga temps at Arthropolis:

The 26C temp there has not been revised for a very long time, and the minutes since last reading appears to be a random number as it does not change in an orderly fashion from day to day.

Don't know if anyone has a contact, but in the meanwhile, that temperature should be ignored, as it is meaningless.

I searched (DuckDuckGo) and got three different temps, all of which are more likely:
http://www.weatherforecastmap.com/russia/khatanga/
-3C
http://www.wunderground.com/US/Khatanga/.html
47F (annoying, couldn't get degrees C)
http://www.worldweatheronline.com/Khatanga-weather/Taymyr/RU.aspx
44F

Despite the differences, all of these are reasonable. I tend towards Wunderground and suspect time of day and exact location are the culprits.

They all show above freezing, but it is September and Khatanga appears to be quite far from the outlet of the River Ob.

This is not to say that the warm outflow has not been spectacular!

[Susan Anderson]

oh sigh, not "all" show above freezing, clearly.

Meanwhile, the Ostepop assertion about decades seems to ignore anything other than Arctic ice and weather this season, with not yet complete information. The mechanisms of greenhouse gas effects on global warming and worldwide weather weirding have not stopped because of one summer's mild refreeze. We live on an integrated planet.

It would be nice, wouldn't it, to discover that two centuries of research and many decades of observations have suddenly been cancelled out ... We could all get back to worrying about getting through the days without this nightmare hanging over our futures.

[Lord Soth]

Well, 2013 has broken below 5 Million Km^2 for extent. However it took an algorithm change to do it (I'm sure Neven will have an entire article on the change)

The arctic has thrown the coldest summer in over 50 years at us, and we still broke 5 Million Km^2. With CO2 above 400 ppm, it will probably take something close to an extinction level event, to stop the transition to a summer time ice free arctic in the next decade.

It will be interesting what an ice free arctic in the summer will look like in the winter.

We may be in the situation where the center of the arctic ocean (which is not the north pole) will be ice free, during the winter.

At the onset of winter, ice starts forming in the shallow bays, and then progress away from shore. With no ice in the central arctic at the start of the melt season after an ice free summer, ice will expand from the existing shoreline, with any ice forming in the central arctic ocean will be pushed by winds and currents towards the pack extending from the shore. Also storms will have the full exposure of the arctic to whip up the waves, and bring up the deeper warm water. It will be interesting to see if my theory will be correct, once we are rid of the summer ice pack in the arctic.

[Wipneus]

PIOMAS update:
Latest value: Updated, 2013-8-31 5.077

I have updated my graphics at ArctischePinguin for the latest data.

Monthly Data
Daily Anomalies
Daily data
Daily data with a "prediction" based on exponential trend

[Wipneus]

PIOMAS updated, my announcement when Neven retrieves it from the spam bucket.

[Retrieved, apologies; N.]

[Neven]

However it took an algorithm change to do it (I'm sure Neven will have an entire article on the change)

I wish I could, but I don't think I know what you mean.

There will be a PIOMAS update later tonight. Thanks, Wipneus!

[Neven]

I wish I could, but I don't think I know what you mean.

Ahaa, I see now. This is new. Still, I don't think I will write about this that much, probably in the next ASI update. It doesn't change all that much when it comes to the rankings, I guess.

[LRC]

@ VaughnA:
I have no idea of how weather patterns effect each other, but if you see the earth as one whole system full of sub systems then it could be that the reasons for the cold cloudy conditions in the Arctic are the same effecting the conditions in the equatorial region of the Atlantic. What the reasons probably have to include all the environmental changes in the last century.

[Kevin McKinney]

Lord Soth and Neven are talking about JAXA's just-announced "version 2":

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/revision_v2.html

Scooped again... but at least I get to provide the actual link!

[philiponfire]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2415191/Global-cooling-Arctic-ice-caps-grows-60-global-warming-predictions.html
phew thet is a relief! everything is fine and we can all get back to normal. :)

[Phil263]

IJIS SIE is up a tad for the 10th. Could have reached the minimum on Sep 9: 4,831,603 ( in Version 2)??? However Version 1 is still down for Sep 10 to 5,069,219...

SIA (CT) is also up slightly on Sept 9 from 3.571 to 3.575 Minimum? 2013 is still higher than 2009 by about 150 k.