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My gut feeling is that PIOMAS is going to bottom out earlier than usual this year. Northern ocean areas are very warm, the ice is weak and vulnerable. There's been a significant increase in pollution carried from continental Asia up north and the jet stream is wobbling :(


Kate, there also seems to be quite a bit of transfer out the Fram going on right now (as discussed here https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,624.msg16645.html#msg16645), and that could also lower PIOMAS in the coming months if it continues.

I also wonder if next year will see returns to the lower PIOMAS volume numbers (as well as area and extent) because of the heat that the fast freeze up this year is doubtless keeping in the water.

I'm curious to learn more about the recent significant increase in pollution from Asia. Do you happen to have a link to an article on that? Thanks ahead of time.

Colorado Bob

Vortex factor in E. Antarctica glacier melt


Colorado Bob

Another Victim Of Global Warming: Pakistan’s Glaciers Will Completely Melt Away By 2035


Colorado Bob

Comprehensive study shows cosmic rays are not causing global warming


james cobban

Colorado Bob,

Here's a quote I like, to add to your others:

“It's the tide. It's the dismal tide. It's not the one thing.”

― Cormac McCarthy

Colorado Bob

james cobban -
Pretty deep quote buddy.

Oddly enough I just wrote a new one on another thread speaking about the carbon kings:

"These are the richest people in the history of mankind. The French kings are shoe shine boys compared to these people."

Colorado Bob

Some good news, my constant bitching for months at Joe Romm's site has born fruit................

Kristan Uhlenbrock is the Associate Director for Ocean Communications at the Center for American Progress.

Her first post :
Louisiana Permits Coal Terminal Adjacent To $300M Wetlands Restoration Project


Go over there , give her an "Atta Girl" .

Colorado Bob

Why is this good news ? Because Climate Progress now has woman covering the oceans.

70 percent of the Earth's surface. And they never had that before.


I'll be _very_ interested to see both October and November data.

Cryosphere today trend for area has almost levelled at 2011 levels.


It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

I was talking about 2006 and the Day300 onwards move into 2007. How the very low ice levels out of 2006 kicked the ball off for the 2007 melt season.

Also I note:

2012 CO2 growth was exactly the same as 2005
2005 was a _shock_ melt year
2006 was a slow year

Followed by 2007.

I'm just wondering if events will repeat themselves again. Although I expect the CO2 growth in 2013 to greatly exceed that of 2006 which was, decadally speaking, below average.


I'm interested in the Arctic and also run a blog in Poland.
Freezing Arctic Ocean stopped. We'll see what happens in a few weeks.


A little of topic, but I'd like to make you aware of an iPad app called MeteoEarth HD (0,99€ this weekend, I have no financial or other relationship with them). This app shows you amongst others winds/pressure systems in real time projected on a globe, polar projection is very well. I had this "seeing Google Earth for the first time" experience.

This is the first time I've seen the cold air actually flow of of Greenland. The Philippine Typhoon was also spectacular. I think it'll help me better understand next years ice movements on the Pole. Highly recommended.

L. Hamilton

In case anyone is interested, I updated the long-term bar graphs showing minimum PIOMAS volume 1979-2013:

minimum Arctic and Antarctic sea ice 1979-2013:

and September mean Arctic sea ice extent. Note that this extent series includes my own estimates (which are similar to those used in the Uni Bremen time series) going back to 1972:

Gerhard Trausner


A little forethought for the Arctic.

After some more ice is left , we are currently seeing a faster freezing of the East Siberian Sea and the Kara Sea . This does not automatically mean that we have to expect there next year thicker ice because rapid freezing may also have the effect that the underlying water is previously isolated before it can cool down the cold winds up at greater depths . As we saw in the previous year despite late freezing surprisingly thick ice in the Kara Sea . Similarly, it was also in the Hudson Bay . I am of the opinion it
could mean a negative feedback effect this isolation . This
would mean a 2 year cycle with the minimum cover , which also seems quite logical to me .
The Bouforth Lake got by the strong winds in the summer much MYI
( multi-year ice ) was inserted , which is still the direction Tschukschensee
drifts . I expect from mid- November, a rapid decrease in the drift velocity .
Worries me the thin ice of Greenland north of Morris Yessup to Fram Str . . It is currently only half as thick as in October 2012. What will mean that there will not be far to the south in the coming melt season . Also the Jöklbucht is already occupied with fresh thin ice , so no MYI can drift to the coast to spend the winter there . This will have a rapid warming of Greenland's east coast next summer to follow . Be particularly felt that the East Greenland glacier as
Zachariah , 79, and Storstossen Bistrup . Above all, the melt of the basal
Kalbungsfronten will not miss its effect . Whether there is a large increase in the flow rate when Zachariah remains to be seen .
He is in my opinion a sleeping giant .
Now to the Barents Sea . The ice cover there is a distinct question of wind patterns and can lead to very large differences in coverage.
Currently, we have very strong winds from the Arctic basin towards the Barents Sea will continue for one week. That is why on the atlantic side of the Arctic ice are more advanced than the previous year , although this year it is melted over there , 2012.
The Bering Sea , I expect this year not as fast as ice-covered last year ,
because the temperatures are relatively warm layers of water up to 30m deep and are therefore not adapt with certain inertia changing winds. In the next summer, it will be interesting to see how quickly the Bering Sea
is ice-free and the Tschukschensee opens. But anyway , I think that is the Achilles heel of the Arctic Barents Sea .

Doug Lofland

Larsboelen, thanks for the tip about MeteoEarth. Best weather app I have ever seen, and also for the Droid people too. Amazing coverage in the arctic and everywhere else. Only thing it does not do (yet) is a sea ice layer, waves, sea temperature and take out the trash.

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