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Werther

Thanks, Neven,
Wish you and your family a good and happy move into that fine home.May it also provide a place for you to, sometimes, catch up when you need it.That catch lies beyond the tasks, as ínfinity lies beyond things (free after Spinoza...).

Colorado Bob

Nice post, she's a beauty . I see your downspouts aren't connected to storage tanks for water harvesting.
If you ever decide to add them these are really great :

Contain water walls , I built this system -

http://www.containwatersystems.com/images/docs/003/Contain_Rainwater_Wall_Case_Study_1.pdf

Colorado Bob

Apr 28, 2014
Thawing permafrost releases more methane

Now a team from the US and Sweden has found that as the thaw proceeds, the organic matter becomes more biodegradable and more likely to produce methane than carbon dioxide. Methane’s greenhouse effect is 33 times larger than that of carbon dioxide.

“As permafrost thaws, the ground thaws, collapses and becomes flooded, and this increasing water inundation leads to changes in surface vegetation,” Suzanne Hodgkins of Florida State University told environmentalresearchweb. “Specifically, Sphagnum moss, which grows in partially thawed semi-wet areas, is replaced by sedges, which grow in fully thawed wet areas. These sedges produce organic matter that has lower concentrations of organic acids and other compounds rich in organically bound oxygen than the organic matter produced by Sphagnum.”
http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/57025

Colorado Bob

The paper -
Significance

We address the effect of thawing permafrost, and attendant subsidence-induced shifts in hydrology and plant community structure, on CH4 and CO2 production potentials and mechanisms driven by changes in organic matter chemical composition in a thawing peatland complex. Advanced analytical characterization of peat and dissolved organic matter along the thaw progression indicated increasingly reduced organic matter experiencing greater humification rates, which were associated with higher relative CH4 and CO2 production potentials, increasing relative CH4/CO2 production ratios, and shifts from hydrogenotrophic to acetoclastic methanogenesis. The effects of this increase in organic matter reactivity with permafrost thaw could intensify the increases in CH4 and CO2 release already predicted due to increasing temperatures, permafrost carbon mobilization, and waterlogging-induced changes in redox conditions.
http://www.pnas.org/content/111/16/5819

Neven

I see your downspouts aren't connected to storage tanks for water harvesting.

That's because this picture doesn't show what happens below the ground. The downspouts are connected to an underground concrete water reservoir, but it wasn't built properly and leaks.

I'm really unhappy about this, but luckily it's the only thing that has really gone wrong so far. The company that built it, has repaired it once already, and will repair it again later next month, but I don't think this can ever be fully repaired. Because the tank is alternately wet and dry, the cement sealants will eventually crack again. So this is something I'll have to solve in the future.

I initially thought I would hook up several tanks above ground, maybe put an insulated wall around them to block heat and light, and thus prevent algae forming in the tank. In the end I decided to go for the concrete tank, but was so stupid to go for the cheap version. It's not so much because it's cheap - concrete rings on top of each other - but the way it was built: big holes for the pipes, much bigger than the pipes, put the pipes in and fill up with foam (which of course isn't watertight).

It's a very fast way of building, but in the end takes up a lot more time. It's too bad I didn't have experience with this, or I would have stopped them straight away (in fact, they did the most damage in the one hour I wasn't there to keep an eye on things).

Oh well, one lives and learns...

Steve Bloom

Right, Bob, and not only that one but several other very recent papers pointing in the same direction. This is on top of the still-recent overturning of the old slow-melt paradigm ~5 years back. Under natural conditions, the quick massive melt we're facing is nearly impossible because the warming is nowhere near as fast.

I say nearly since all of this should be seen in the context of what is probably the only paleo-analog, the PETM, as described in DeConto et al. (2012). Probably we don't have as much permafrost as Paleocene Antarctica, but even so enough for a weaker repetition of the same type of event.

Steve Bloom
Steve Bloom

The house looks good, Neven! Just a few more months now, in the nick of time to keep you from being distracted from peak Arctic sea ice melt. :)

Robert S

The house looks great. Having built mine myself as well (took me four years), I know how that goes...

I've been following the ice movements on Worldview (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/) and the effects of the strong wind from the land along the western portion of the arctic coast in Canada are dramatic - lots of smashed and rapidly shifting ice. It may or may not be significant, but it looks a lot more like 2012 than 2013.

econnexus

@Robert - See also the in depth discussion on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,778.msg24873.html#msg24873

@Neven - Note from the same thread that two NPEO webcams and O-Buoy #9 have been beaming back pictures for a while now. Here's NPEO #2 for example:

A nice looking house indeed! I have a question to ask out of "professional" interest. Will you be installing any energy storage to complement your array of solar PV panels? If so, what sort?!

econnexus

P.S. There's plenty of open water visible on the Barrow webcam this morning:

Greg Wellman

Neven, what's the correct answer for an underground water tank - fiberglass?

George Divoky

The one-day animation at the Barrow Sea Ice Radar website show the rapid loss of shorefast ice that stranded a number of Barrow whalers on the ice yesterday.


http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_radar

Nightvid Cole

It's nice to see that you live in a place WITHOUT crazy zoning and construction permit restrictions and red tape that make it a huge headache to build your own house like in the US cities :)

Neven

@Neven - Note from the same thread that two NPEO webcams and O-Buoy #9 have been beaming back pictures for a while now. Here's NPEO #2 for example:

Thanks, Jim. I had seen some of that info pass by, but it didn't seem to have sunk in. I'll update the webcam page later this week (it seems the Tiksi webcam is gone).

I have a question to ask out of "professional" interest. Will you be installing any energy storage to complement your array of solar PV panels? If so, what sort?!

I thought a lot about energy storage, but in the end concluded we can't afford it right now. If I'd have to choose something now, I'd go for LiFeYPo batteries (16 pieces at 160 or 200 Ah each -> total capacity of 8-10 kWh), but maybe something (even) better will show up in a year or two.

Neven, what's the correct answer for an underground water tank - fiberglass?

That's a difficult one, Greg. Personally, and in hindsight, I would opt for either concrete (in one piece, not built up out of rings) or HDPE. There was something about fiberglass (used a lot in the US, I believe) that made it unsuitable. I believe it had to with the tensile stress below ground. And fiberglass isn't very eco-friendly, at least not if you're going to cut it or anything (I thought about making a shower stall from an old fibreglass wine cask).

It's nice to see that you live in a place WITHOUT crazy zoning and construction permit restrictions and red tape that make it a huge headache to build your own house like in the US cities :)

Cities are always more problematic. We live in a small village where they are thrilled to have families moving in.

Of course, there are some construction permit restrictions, like for instance greywater recycling systems. I will probably just build that next year without asking. ;-)

Colorado Bob

Oh well, one lives and learns...

Ah, I see. Never the less still a great job.
-------------------
The melting polar icecap is creating waves the size of houses

Compared with the monster seas of the Pacific, Arctic waters are a picture of calm—whipping up, at their most violent, into lake-like chop. Or, at least, they were. New research shows that something is whipping up waves that reach five meters (16.4 feet).

“That’s a big wave—that’s a house-sized wave. And that has never been observed before in the Arctic,” says Jim Thomson, a physicist at the University of Washington who led the study (paywall).

So why is it happening now? “As the ice retreats in the Arctic, which it is doing in a very remarkable way, we’re finding more and more waves,” says Thomson. “And we’re finding a very direct relationship between the height of the waves and the retreat of the ice.”
http://news.uk.msn.com/the-melting-polar-icecap-is-creating-waves-the-size-of-houses-1

Eli Rabett

No, Eli does not wish to live in an interesting melting season. He wants to live in dull times, where the climate is not changing much.

If there is one thing that makes Eli really really angry it is that because of the idiots we now watch with fascination as the climate takes us to hell.

Neven
No, Eli does not wish to live in an interesting melting season. He wants to live in dull times, where the climate is not changing much.

I did indeed mean it as a reference to the Chinese curse. :-)

Neven

I congratulate myself for posting the 33,333th comment. :-)

Hans Kiesewetter

Gefeliciteerd Neven!
(Could you give me a reminder when you approach 100,000? Should be possible to reach this milestone hopefully before you have to extend the topic of this blog to Antarctic.)

Bob Bingham

Just a comment on solar panels.Here in New Zealand we do not have a subsidised system so I produce a bit more than I use, to pay for the grid and it balances out with me paying just a few dollars for the year. Best investment I have made..
In speculating about the final extent fot the season, Will the El Nino arrive early enough to affect the total extent?

Lynn Shwadchuck

Neven, I'm so pleased that the donations added up to a significant amount – unusual for bloggers. Your house looks fantastic. Stupid question: could you not put a plastic tank inside the concrete one? My mate had a concrete rainwater cistern at his log house near Algonquin Park and left the lid off for a few minutes. He found out much later, the hard way, that a fairly large, by then unidentifiable, mammal had drowned in there.

Chris Reynolds

Neven, Eli,

It's not actually a 'Chinese' curse (I know you knew that anyway), but the three conjoined curses are rather clever, and I wouldn't blame any race for claiming them:

"May you live in interesting times.

May you come to the attention of those in authority.

May you find what you are looking for."

I often think that the latter is the most severe curse....

Colorado Bob

" May you come to the attention of those in authority. "

Unless you live in any of the following countries :
China
Egypt
Syria
Yemen
Nigeria
Russia
Ukraine
Iran
Iraq
North Korea
South Korea
India
Burma
Vietnam
Japan
Argentina
Great Britain
Australia
Canada
Mexico
The United States
All of central America
And most of South America
Pakistan
And all the other "stans"

Steve Bloom

Bob, IMO that wave study you linked provides a mechanism for an abrupt dispersal and melt of the remaining ice, pretty much any year now. Perhaps this is what Wadhams had in mind when he predicted that the first ice-free (or effectively so) event would be sudden.

David Goldstein

I am deeply interested in bearing witness to either the Arctic Sea ice melt or the Greenland ice melt. Does anyone know - is it possible, as a 'civilian' to join with scientists for, say, a week this summer while they monitor the melt? I would like to do this for my personal enjoyment and, as a climate writer, to get a more "felt" experience of what I am writing about. Any guidance is appreciated.

Magma

David, I can't answer with respect to every expedition but for reasons of space, cost and liability it would be difficult unless you had some institutional ties and/or were able to pitch it as reporting.

On the other hand, depending where you are based, you can fly commercially to Kangerlussuaq, Greenland and from there and some other towns on the west coast take trips to the edge of the ice sheet or observe icebergs calving near Ilulissat. And no doubt there are charter helicopter flights available offering the chance to fly over and possibly land on the ice sheet itself.

None of these activities come cheap, of course.

Survival Acres

Hi Neven,

Glad to see you're doing the 'stead thing.

I'm sure you know McPherson admits to "total failure" on this topic. Perhaps so - a bad choice of locations didn't help.

I built a 'stead too - a HUGE amount of work. It's still ongoing and will be until I'm dead. Including a very nice greenhouse, which is now going quite nicely (no new pics available I'm afraid).

Keep at it. Preparing a place "to be" takes many years of hard, consistent work. This year, I'm installing "horse trough" gardens outside (tired of rebuilding my raised boxes). Just got a load of "garden dirt" today... and with the frost gone (snowed last Saturday), we should be good to go.

I've made a lot of errors from my own efforts, but you do "live and learn". They make various products to seal tanks, it's possible you can still get these repaired (do it yourself if needed). Cisterns are going to be a HUGE requirement for many people to combat water shortages.

I really do wish more people would prepare. You need at least 10 years of prep time to do it even half-way right, even if you had an unlimited checkbook, which most of us don't have.

I strongly suspect most people think they can just "do it" all in the first year. That's going to a major eye-opener (if they survive) for most of the developed world.

Every day, push your preps just a little further. Get SOMETHING done, even if it's just a little thing. By the end of the season, you'll have made a lot of progress.

I don't care what the future holds... or what McPherson or anyone else says, it doesn't change a thing for me, so even if the doomers are right (including me!) it doesn't matter. The "try" is all that's left.

It's a great way to live life (fresh organic vegetables!) and enjoy living while doing something positive.

I read your blog pretty much everyday, but have stopped publishing the news regarding climate change. I will be coming back with a new format (video) from time to time.

(return to lurking now). Good luck!

jdallen_wa

I normally wouldn't jump in on this, but the context moves me.

Survivalism is all fine and good, as becoming more self sufficient is good for the environment, generally. However, that said, to imagine somehow that becoming "self sufficient" will help you survive a societal collapse is an illusory fantasy. In that kind of an event, everyone's survival will become a dice roll. Preparations will only delay the inevitable confrontation which chance and challenge.

Our best and I think only hope, is to try to shape both policy and direct action in ways which in general preserve us as a whole. To do otherwise I think bluntly, is "opting out" and consigning the rest of the world to its fate.

You may not care for the survivors you meet.

So, DO things like Neven is doing (I have less time, pushing 60, but I do what I can). DO take steps which generally, communally, make not just your own life, but your community more sustainable, and more local in its consumption patterns.

Reduce your foot print.

Educate the people around you.

Form communities which collectively can respond effectively to the challenges which will face us.

Do not abandon the world around you, however mad it may seem to have become. Doing so won't help you.

My two cents.

Ostepop1000

Beautiful house Neven. Looking forward to your house building blog. Would like to build something similar.

What do you make of the sudden change of pattern, where interanual changes were small from 19987-2007, while they have been muvk bigger from 2008 until present?:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png

Neven

They make various products to seal tanks, it's possible you can still get these repaired (do it yourself if needed).

Yes, there are definitely a couple of options. For now I still have a 2 year warranty left, so I'm first giving the guys who built it a chance to correct their mistakes.

And water is incredibly important, especially in this part of Austria where it can be really dry. That's why we also built a pond.

What we're trying to do with this house, is be prepared for several scenarios, and try to make that knife cut not just two, but three or four ways.

- For instance, if things get progressively worse (the economy, etc), we'll be better off than we were renting a place in the city. The translation sector (where I work as a freelancer) has been under pressure for years now, with the economic crisis exacerbating things. I have to be prepared for the possibility where there simply won't be any translation work that allows me to make a decent living.

- If things don't get worse, we'll still have driven down costs a lot, allowing us to do work other than just for money. And probably be healthier and happier (I hope).

- If there still is time to stave off collapse, then this would be the way to do it (in my perhaps not so humble opinion). Getting somewhat more independent with regards to food, water and energy (and health!), creates the conditions for another system, instead of the addiction-slavery-profit combo we're stuck with now. If more people do it, it will become easier and more attractive for others to do something similar. And that would be the best thing that could happen to democracy.

- If a widespread collapse does occur and AGW is unstoppable and causes yet another mass extinction event, well, you know what? So be it. We all die some day. I'd rather work at overcoming my fear of death, than trying to survive at all costs. If you die, you die. F**k it.

Either way, I'm happy to be able to DO something - even if it is hard - after years of just thinking and theorizing. Once the house and garden are taking up a bit less time, I want to try and see what can be done in the community.

Neven
Beautiful house Neven. Looking forward to your house building blog. Would like to build something similar.

Thanks, Ostepop.

What do you make of the sudden change of pattern, where interanual changes were small from 19987-2007, while they have been muvk bigger from 2008 until present?:

I'm not really sure and/or qualified, but I've read here and there that it could be that the system is displaying the oscillations that precede a shift to another state.

Climatehawk1

Self sufficiency seems like a good thing, I just wouldn't count on it saving you from a general collapse. There are 9 billion people in the world, and a few hundred of them are likely to find you no matter where you are. Better to slug it out and try to get things to change than spend precious time and resources nurturing the illusion you can survive while hundreds of millions do not.

Colorado Bob

Steve Bloom -
Yep, given the the way the melt works , and the winds blow, this paper seems very logical.

An interesting thing is once we melt out all the ice, it's still going to be a very extreme place , and it's basically a bowl. Wave heights
at the end of summer in 2050 may be so violent that sea water may have a hard time freezing.

Colorado Bob

Steve Bloom -
Plus it's a new engine of ocean currents. What once was stable at the top of the world is big player.

52 card pick-up .

Colorado Bob

Climatehawk1 -
Let Neven build his house. As for trying to change things, it seems Neven's little blog is already doing that.
It's clearly one of the webs richest resources.

PS
Last time I looked there are 7.2 billion people, not 9 billion.

Colorado Bob

Texas like California is in a state of denial. The 2 largest engines of our "growth" are about to start drinking water from out of toilets
Texas leads the way -
There are about 110,00 of them about to start drinking water from toilets at Wichita Falls. , Texas.

The idea that we could grow forever is over. the idea we must change has come to
Wichita Falls.

Colorado Bob

We are the largest asteroid to ever hit the planet.

jdallen_wa

Right there with you, Colorado Bob.

What continues to astonish me, is the ability of people to accept the most tenuous of data, in a desperate attempt to justify previously held conclusions.

R. Gates

Great job on the house Neven, and here's a great quote from you:

"If a widespread collapse does occur and AGW is unstoppable and causes yet another mass extinction event, well, you know what? So be it. We all die some day. I'd rather work at overcoming my fear of death, than trying to survive at all costs. If you die, you die. F**k it."
-----
Overcoming fear of death and even accepting the inevitable eventuality complete human extinction some day is a healthy release and greatly sharpens an appreciation for the "now". Each moment, each second with family and friends takes on the glow of eternity it should have.

Lynn Shwadchuck

JD Allen I'm with you. Building community (not that gardening isn't a great topic upon which to base friendships). Mister #1 Stop For Storable Food And Supplies is profiting on fear, very much part of the current system, so we needn't try to change his mind. I considered putting canisters of freeze-dried food under the bed during the aftermath of the 1974 oil crisis and decided if something that big happens, we're all in it together.

Otto Lehikoinen

David Goldstein asks: "Does anyone know - is it possible, as a 'civilian' to join with scientists for, say, a week this summer while they monitor the melt? I would like to do this for my personal enjoyment"

It's my understanding that occasionally the scientists studying glaciers employ experienced ice climbers, more preferably if they're also strong to carry some equipment, to help them with their experiments. Some of the more dangerous tourism activities come with a liability agreement that start with a statement 'In case of death or injury...' Once upon a time it was indeed possible to get as a tourist on a Russian ice breaker on a study mission with all the amenities of a freighter ship, such as common showers and common meals, with a crew that doesn't speak english, but I guess with the current political situation that's not possible. In any case if you are able to get on some western ice breaker studying ice you'd be extected to work or at least stay out of the way. I guess the easiest way to get to a research vessel as a tourist nowadays is to fund a research group and demand to be on the field crew. I don't know if any of these are enjoyable to you but I think this is approximately the current situation. Of course you'd also be expected to go through an extensive survival course. Of course I maybe wrong.

NeilT

Hi Neven, looks really good.

Can I ask a question about the solar array. Is that on both sides or is the 5kwh only on the sun facing side? Just to get an idea of area covered.

I've been looking into Solar for years. If my wife ever catches on I'll finally be able to get the panels made. She thinks my time is better utilised in different things. Pre manufactured is waayy too expensive for me here compared to home build.

What I did have to spend a huge amount of time trying to work out was the Inverter. My house feed is 12kw. Trying to find a 12kw inverter is extremely difficult if you want to really remove all grid input and you don't want to be bothered with certifications of grid tie. My initial investigations showed that the inverter was likely to be the biggest cost. 2/3kw was OK, ish. 4/6kw was sort of OK ish but getting pricey. But pure sine wave inverters for 10kw and up were astronomical, coming in at higher than the cost of the entire array. Grid, tie, of course is much cheaper as it's what most are going for.

Eventually I found a source which ships from China in the £2,000 category for a 48v input. Other searching tells me that you need copper wound or the thing will fail in short order. By weight, the unit seems to be copper.

I was wondering if you had thought about that?

jdallen_wa

Sound like you may want to start a completely separate small scale solar power blog, Neven ;)

Neven
Is that on both sides or is the 5kwh only on the sun facing side? Just to get an idea of area covered.

That's the whole array. 5.25 kWp, 25° off to the West.

I was wondering if you had thought about that?

I had thought for a very short time about building the panels myself, but then thought better of it (I'm not that technically gifted, and the efficiency is lower, etc).

The inverter is a 5 kW SMA TriPower inverter. I thought about buying one myself in Germany, in fact buy everything there, and then install myself. But the offer from a local company was so good, that I decided to take that up. In hindsight I'm extremely glad I did, because installing a PV solar array yourself is incredibly hard work, especially if you're afraid of heights. I did help a lot on both days, and was completely wasted afterwards.

P-maker

Neven

Nice to know that you have the eastern part of your roof top reserved for solar panels to provide a hot morning shower for you and your famlily.

In case you seek inspiration as to what you can do for your local community, here is a fresh example of up-scaling: http://www.whogreen.com/Dronninglund-Solar-City-Heat/ and the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8o5nAMGkbaw

It’s the World’s largest of its kind: 36,000 sq m of solar panels and a heat pond containing 63,000 cu m of 90 C water.

This plant will provide appr. 50 % of all heating needed in the nearby town of Dronninglund.

The plant manager, Johan Frey is planning to visit Berlin and Austria in the near future to tell the full story…

NeilT

Thanks for the input Neven.

Yes Solar Cells are a lot of work. But then my goal was to build small and scale up, taking over more of the home power circuits as I go. I have a 15M workshop to work in with a lot of woodworking tools, so it's not that much of an issue for me if I can have the free time.... My home has modular circuits which can be relayed to take solar, so I can grow my power farm and distribute it round the home with failover relays to the grid if required.

During the last major power outage I came home, bought a 6kw Generator and created a simple switched power circuit to run all the fridges and freezers plus some of the home power.

During my searches for inverters I found a quite innovative square wave inverter (US design spec), which, after much research and brain beating, I was able to find the parts to up the power to 15kw. Cost of components? About £200. The main issues I have with it are the 240v DC input which I'm not keen on working with and the fact that it can only be used for pumps, dumb motors and heating elements, as it will trash any fragile AC computing equipment. Square wave power supplies are very expensive and hard to come by. Surprise surprise...

Neven

Neil, there's nothing more awesome than doing things yourself. Unfortunately, being a city kid, I found out too late about this. If I'd have your skills, I'd definitely try more stuff out.

As it is, I'm tending my wounds after installing sockets and other electric stuff today. :-)

Survival Acres

"Mister #1 Stop For Storable Food And Supplies is profiting on fear, very much part of the current system, so we needn't try to change his mind."

Wow! What an ignorant, unread and unkind comment!

I supposed 20 years of publications and (global) effort to change the status-quo and support sustainable living don't meet the "cut" for some (idiots).

jdallen_wa

@Survival Acres - take it in context. There are in fact a LOT of people profiting on survivalism who really don't have much of a clue on how things might unravel, or worse, they do, and don't care about how they benefit in the short term. There are many (including possibly you) who do take the subject very earnestly, and who's offering is both germane and important.

A balanced approach does exist. A pragmatic approach is indicated. Part of that I think, is the realization that any of us escaping societal collapse will be a dice roll. Our survival will need to be a collective rather than individual effort in order to insure our survival.

NeilT

Indeed Neven, I'm sort of a city kid but of a family of electricians on one side and engineers on the other with a strong streak of military service. Although I now work in computing I do most of my own DIY, except the really heavy stuff. I know the pain of sockets, etc, wires and knives don't really know when to stop.... :-)

Quintrent13

Hey Greg Wellman, if you are having a hard time finding the right underground water tank fiberglass that you should go with, you should ask a company that sells them. That way you know that you are getting the right kind for your area and what you need. That is what I would do and is going to be the best option for you that is for sure.
http://www.economytanks.com.au/residential

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