ASI 2014 update 8: neck and neck

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has a good explanation of sea ice extent and area in their FAQ). I also look at other things like regional sea ice area, compactness, temperature and weather forecasts, anything of particular interest.

The animation on the right consists of NSIDC
sea ice concentration maps, one for each ASI update.

Check out the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website (ASIG)
for daily updated graphs, maps, live webcam images and
the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (ASIF) for detailed discussions.

August 24th 2014

Purely from a melting perspective - never mind the consequences which are already happening, or the way the public views AGW - this has been quite a boring melting season. It has some interesting features nevertheless, like the Northern Sea Route opening yet again and clear sailing up to 85N (more on that later this week). And we still don't have an answer to the question which of the two rebound years, 2013 and 2014, will end up with the lowest minimum. Which in itself is still kind of exciting.

The late momentum that started 2-3 weeks ago has kept ice decline steady, but it wasn't enough to cause massive drops. There was some compaction and quite a bit of melting on the Pacific side of the Arctic, but this was offset somewhat by refreezing melt ponds and a lack of transport on the Atlantic side of the Arctic. The momentum has now stopped building up, as insolation has practically stopped playing a role and the minimum will largely be determined by compaction and transport.

We'll have to see what the year of in situ melting can come up with as we enter the last few weeks of the melting season.

Sea ice area (SIA)

With that massive melt pond refreeze on the Pacific side of the Arctic, the 2014 trend line (on the Cryosphere Today graph) was highest in the 2005-2014 period for a couple of days, but has now started dropping again. According to Wipneus, who estimates the CT SIA numbers two days ahead on the ASIF, it will continue to do so, and thus will get closer to the 2013 trend line:

Here's the link to my CT SIA spreadsheet.

Sea ice extent (SIE)

On the IJIS graph the 2014 trend line has continued to drop very steadily, and is now slowly dipping under the 2013 trend line, which had started to stall around this time last year:

Here's the link to my IJIS SIE spreadsheet.

Cryosphere Today area per IJIS extent (CAPIE)

I think it's safe to say that CAPIE reached its minimum percentage a while back, on July 25th to be precise, which is very early (just like last year). It wasn't just very early, but very high as well: 70.4%. For comparison, 2012 noted a minimum of 59.7% on August 12th.

But it didn't stop there. After the minimum, the CAPIE percentage for this year shot up like crazy, making for an amazing sight on the CAPIE graph (see below). This year has really been marked as the year of in situ melting, with little momentum (melt ponds and open water between floes) and transport. That makes this possible:

Read the CAPIE segment in ASI 2014 update 2 for a more thorough explanation of what CAPIE stands for.

Here's the link to my updated CAPIE spreadsheet.

Regional SIE and SIA

Regional graph of the week, taken from the Regional Graphs page on the ASIG:

This week we turn to the Chukchi Sea, where the ice took quite a battering during the last two weeks, with lots of Sun and warm compacting winds from the North Pacific. It resulted in this custom-made Wipneus™ map using ASMR-2 data from Uni Hamburg, that shows the changes in the Chukchi in the past two weeks. Red = ice two weeks ago, open water now; blue the other way around:

There was a hole, but it got assimilated by the open water.

As said, the Northern Sea Route has opened yet again (what, 8th year in a row now?) and it's possible to sail up to 85N thanks to the Laptev Bite, much earlier than last year. More on that this week.

Sea Level Pressure (SLP)

Here's the two-week animation of Danish Meteorological Institute SLP images:

We see how the high-pressure area that dominated for a couple of weeks dissipates and moves away from the Beaufort, with lows now pushing in from Siberia. This in turn has caused something of a pressure gradient right across the Arctic, causing some transport on the Atlantic side of the Arctic. Not that much through Fram Strait, but rather through Victoria Channel (formerly and erroneously known as Olga Strait) between Svalbard and Franz Josef Land, leaving patches of low concentration in its wake.

It will be interesting to see how large these can get before freezing over again. Last year saw rather large patches of open water near the Pole. But then again, 2013 was the year of persistent cyclones pushing the ice pack apart. This year it's more compact.

The 6-day ECMWF weather forecast shows more of the same, with cyclones taking over the Arctic (click for a larger version):

This is a bit of a double-edged sword. Normally, low pressure areas mean clouds, lower temps, ice pack dispersion. But as we now enter the transition phase between melting and freezing season, open skies can cause more heat to leave than enter the Arctic. In this sense, clouds can dampen the fall in temperatures.

It's very complex, and so there's no telling (at least, for me) what will happen exactly in the coming week. It does seem as though there will be a stop to what little transport there has been on the Atlantic side of the Arctic.

Temperatures

The relative heat over the North Pacific is still visible on the NOAA/ESRL/PSD/NCEP surface air temperature map:

But north of 80° latitude, just like every year, temps have started to go down, as can be seen on the DMI 80N temp graph:

An indication of massive refreezing taking place, is when there are large upward spikes on this graph, because of the ocean releasing its heat so that it can refreeze.

Speaking of which, SSTs in the North Atlantic still don't look too high on the DMI SST anomaly map, although elsewhere there's still a lot of red to be seen (here are the maps for August 25th 2012 and August 18th 2013):

Conclusion

With just 2-4 weeks left in this melting season, we wait and see where the minimum will end up. With 2014 relatively high, but steadily declining, and 2013 stalling around this time, the race is still somewhat exciting. Unless 2014 completely stalls over the next two weeks, which of course, is also possible.

But more important than this rearguard action, are the implications for ice pack health. As we have seen, modeled volume is now higher than it has been for a couple of years, and with a substantial part of the ice on the Pacific side of the Arctic surviving, multi-year ice will see another rebound. Last year's volume rebound had been all but wiped out at the start of this melting season, but maybe the ice pack gets some more flesh on the bones after this year of in situ melting.

Comments

[Jim Hunt]

Thanks for yet another comprehensive update Neven. I too am taking a keen interest in the current sequence of Arctic cyclones.

The connection may not initially be apparent but I am currently in the midst of organising an Arctic basin (fantasy!) big wave surfing competition for next week:

The Arctic Surf Forecast For Late August 2014

The relevance is, of course, that what's very good for the surf at Point Barrow is very bad for health of the sea ice in the Beaufort Sea Marginal Ice Zone

A pulse of swell is heading in that direction even as we speak:

[iceman]

Another thorough and thoughtful summary. With its lack of pressure gradients and attendant ice transport, "the year of in situ melting" is a good capsule summary for 2014.
btw under SIA I think you mean "...that massive melt pond refreeze on the Atlantic side of the Arctic..."

[Lewis Cleverdon]

Neven - to what extent does the pronounced cold patch east of Spitzbergen in the SST Anomalies plot reflect a lack of penetration by the Gulf Stream ?

Here in Britain we had a very warm summer until the start of August, so there should presumably have been plenty of heat heading north.

Regards,

Lewis

[Sam]

The momentary opening of a narrow channel through the northwest passage appears to have become clogged and reclosed.

http://1.usa.gov/1AKsP53

Sam

[sofouuk]

Le Manguier going west to east has been sailing and waiting along the east coast of Prince of Wales Island to a point further north than the Bellot Strait ... S/V Arctic Tern has almost reached Bellot as well ... Looks like S/V Catryn is also heading south of Port Leopold on the way to Bellot Strait.

It will be interesting to see how they do on the west side of Bellot Strait when they get into 9+/10 concentration with 2/10 big floes of Multi-year ice in it (see chart below). When the tide is running there is a phenomenal amount of pressure at the west end of Bellot. They will need icebreakers and luck...

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,762.0.html#lastPost

[Neven]

btw under SIA I think you mean "...that massive melt pond refreeze on the Atlantic side of the Arctic..."

No, I did mean Pacific, East Siberian Sea to be specific. There was a huge amount of yellow and green two weeks ago, signalling low concentration (I think melt ponds because of insolation and warm winds). This then turned purple and pink again, ie higher concentration. I think it's one of the main reasons CT SIA stalled despite all of the action.

Neven - to what extent does the pronounced cold patch east of Spitzbergen in the SST Anomalies plot reflect a lack of penetration by the Gulf Stream ?

Very good question, Lewis. I'm wondering the same. I don't know to what extent sea surface temperatures say something about what happens lower down.

But the relative cold, SST as well as SAT, in the Barentsz and Kara Seas have also been a defining characteristic for this melting season. Quite a change from previous years.

[wayne]

Sam, is the winds, and the channels will concentrate the ice on one side or another, it does not mean that its closed to traffic, which by the way, if these ship mates read me or followed Neven's ASIB would have left later!! Sailors are a hardy bunch following their instincts, but rarely if ever seeking advice about sea ice conditions, they just go into the fog.
"Inadiman" Norwegian style. The only one seeking advice was none sailor Ousland who circumnavigated the Pole for a rousing reception back at his home.

Neven, Ice is never boring unless the scotch is all gone. :)

So far a very interesting year, and the melt pond excuse is very tenuous, now that its a bit colder you'd think CT would stall in ice area loss. I gave up on trying to understand CT results , although very interesting, there is something fishy about Extent loosing less than Area as per right now. Extent overlaps the area, already more compact than last year. The mathematics does not make any sense, unless the melt ponds have melted in colder surface air. I scratch my head, it is still nevertheless intriguing…..
but weird…..

More open water invites cyclones, already making their return felt, Now is the time when they may disperse ice in wide open water.

[Fwmbrown]

With the AO switching to positive after a long negative period, the cyclonic activity and bouy chart information, it looks like there will be a short-lived 'Fram Flush', pushing the sea ice southwards for it to disperse and melt. This should accelerate the melt for a bit. How much would depend on the duration of the event and the strength of the winds and currents.
For this reason i suspect 2014's minumum will be a little later and a little lower than 2013's, though I have given up on the nid range of my June prediction...

[Phil263]

Hi Neven

Thank you for the weekly updates and the good work again this season. I haven't been contributing too much to the site this season, but i am still checking the ice on the daily basis. "Un-eventful" rather than "boring" is how I would describe the 2014 melting season. Nothing is boring about nature! I think this is the "rebound" we all sort of expected, but we might be in for nasty surprises in the coming years!

[John Christensen]

Lewis, Neven,

"Neven - to what extent does the pronounced cold patch east of Spitzbergen in the SST Anomalies plot reflect a lack of penetration by the Gulf Stream ?

Very good question, Lewis. I'm wondering the same."

Let me help: The cold patch on the Atlantic side of the Arctic is caused by the NAO being near neutral much of this summer.

I have referenced the NAO data for prior summers a number of times, so will not repeat this, so let me instead refer to DMI in their analysis of the record melt in Greenland in July 2012:

"In 2012, as in recent warm summers since 2007, a blocking high pressure feature, associated with negative NAO conditions, was present in the mid-troposphere over Greenland for much of the summer. This circulation pattern advected relatively warm southerly winds over the western flank of the ice sheet, forming a ‘heat dome’ over Greenland that led to the widespread surface melting. Both sea-surface temperature and sea-ice cover anomalies seem to have played a minimal role in this record melt, relative to atmospheric circulation."

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3743/abstract

So if you want to know more about the Atlantic side of the Arctic, you need to know about the NAO.. ;-)

[wayne]

Jim Hunt the ice prophet:

"The relevance is, of course, that what's very good for the surf at Point Barrow is very bad for health of the sea ice in the Beaufort Sea Marginal Ice Zone"

But its not only the waves Jim, but rather sea and ice higher temperatures combined with a Low pressure system in the mix.

http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2014/08/spontaneous-meltdown-matter-of-ice.html

[wayne]

wow, a follow up of my preceding would be North Pacific and Atlantic temperatures, despite a weak or undeclared El-Nino. The minima should be quite delayed because sst's are really very warm.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.8.25.2014.gif

Yes it means also much warmer weather everywhere in the Northern Hemisphere. Of which our best friend, the under studied sea ice is the only thing cooling things down along with winter. Perhaps even El-Nino has trouble starting because the South Pacific is remarkably cooler, and you know who is the cause of cooling over there.

[Jim Hunt]

Wayne - Whatever the combination of causes, here's an AMSR2 animation revealing the disappearing Beaufort sea ice in August 2014:

Note that the dates are UK style, and the pulse of swell I highlighted at the top was on August 24th.

[L. Hamilton]

Off topic for this thread but of wider interest, NOAA has just updated their global ocean heat and salt content data.
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/

I've updated the annual/three month graphs for 0-700 meters
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/OHC_7an.png

and 0-2000 meters
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/OHC_2an.png

[Jim Hunt]

Thanks very much Larry. Most interesting, and only very slightly off topic! I've taken the liberty of embedding your graphs:

I hope that's OK?

[L. Hamilton]

Thanks, Jim. On my screen the images are slightly truncated at right, but click and you see the full series.

Y'all are welcome to make use of these graphs if they're helpful.

[Jim Hunt]

Thanks again Larry! Your suggestion provided me with the inspiration for:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/climate-graphs/

I hope that's OK with you too. Please let me know ASAP if not!

[philiponfire]

comedy central:-

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2738653/Stunning-satellite-images-summer-ice-cap-thicker-covers-1-7million-square-kilometres-MORE-2-years-ago-despite-Al-Gore-s-prediction-ICE-FREE-now.html

anyone for some cherry picking?

[Jim Hunt]

Shock News Philip! I thought I'd get my retaliation in early this year:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/08/is-arctic-sea-ice-extent-up-because-the-ice-is-thicker/

N.B. Perhaps entirely coincidentally we currently seem to be suffering from a DDoS attack. Normal service will be resumed as soon as possible!

[Jim Hunt]

We've moved to CloudFlare, and penned some purple prose of our own, not to mention a stiff note to Rose's editor at the Mail on Sunday:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/08/has-the-arctic-ice-cap-expanded-for-the-second-year-in-succession/

[michael sweet]

The Queen Maud area of the North West Passage has melted dramatically in the past two or three days. See Canada Sea Ice Graphs. Last week I thought it would not clear this year and now it looks like it will clear enough for the yachts waiting there to make it through.

[Phil263]

2014 MINIMUM extent: 5,215,532 sqkm on August 30 ?

May be or may be not, but likely very close to it! This would put 2014 in Number 8 position, the highest minimum since 2006.

[Entropic man]

Phil263

We don't seem to have reached the minimum yet.

NSIDC show a continued downward drift.