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It really depends on the degree to which polar stratospheric clouds have formed and to an extent on how long they have been there. It is not clear how much time is needed for denitirification via ClONO2 deposition. Since it is only a month or so to first light and Dec-Jan were quite warm, a cold stratosphere by itself may not be enough


FishOutofWater here.

The stratospheric polar vortex has been strong and cold this winter. Dec.-Jan was not warm in the middle stratosphere in the polar vortex, it was cold as Neven's article states.

There are several factors this winter behind the cold temperatures including, the QBO phase and the re- strengthening of the overturning circulation in the north Atlantic. When the overturning circulation is strong sudden stratospheric warmings are very rare.

Strtospheric cooling is a predicted consequence of increasing levels of GHGs, but the physics becomes extremely complex - above my pay grade.


Honestly, I'm not convinced its as esoteric as stratospheric cooling or CLONO2.

Quantity has its own quality.

And the quantity of moisture and raw heat exported north by the storms both along the Gulf Stream and the East Asian coast provide more than the necessary heat.

Add the Barents 4-8C above normal, and that's quite sufficient explanation for current conditions.

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