Persistent Arctic and sub-Arctic warmth

There are a couple of reporters out there who write really good articles about the Arctic, and Alaska Dispatch News' Yereth Rosen is one of them. Just a couple of days ADN published this article of hers on the extreme temperature anomalies in the Arctic this year. Below is an excerpt, and below that I have a couple of notes on recent temperatures and the short-term forecast.

Persistent Arctic and sub-Arctic warmth expected to continue for months

Sun glints off a sea ice lead in an otherwise heavily ridged ice pack in the Arctic Ocean above Canada. (Sinead Farrell / NASA)

The Arctic has been gripped in extraordinary warmth since December, when an Atlantic storm blew in from the south and pushed temperatures near the North Pole to about the point of thaw.

Expect that unusual warmth to continue, at least in the short term, experts advise.

Temperatures in eastern Siberia and parts of Alaska could reach above 80 degrees in coming days, according to the University of Maine's Climate Reanalyzer. Temperatures are likely to be above normal in all of Alaska this June and all the way through October, according to the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center. Most of Canada is also likely to have higher-than-normal temperatures, at least through fall, according to Environment Canada's seasonal forecasts.

That fits with a trend, mapped out by Andrew Slater of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, of unusual warmth for the high Arctic that has run for the entire year to date.

"It has been an outlier year," Slater said.

He identified four "notable zones" of unusual warmth in the Arctic and circumpolar north — the central Arctic, which was warmed up by the December storm; the Barents and Kara seas, where lack of winter ice allowed heat and moisture to stream into the atmosphere; southwestern Alaska, where ice was especially low in the Bering Sea; and the land areas of Siberia.

Read the rest here.

Finally, fi-nal-ly, the trend line on the DMI 80N temperature graph has dipped below average, after being in positive territory for the entire year so far (something never seen before). This graph shows the (modelled) daily mean temperature of the Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel, shown on the image to the right (found here):

As the entire region north of 80° is filled with ice it's difficult for temperatures to stray too far from the average during Summer. So far, the warm temperatures have mainly hindered sea ice growth, but as freezing temperatures have now all but vanished from almost the entire Arctic, the heat will aid solar radiation in melting the ice.

But not just the ice. As I've pointed out in various blog posts, snow cover has been very low all over the Northern Hemisphere (especially in North America) for months now. This is important, as there seems to be a correlation between June land snow cover and the Arctic sea ice September minimum. Compared to previous years 2016 is looking low, second only to 2012 (see here).

In Alaska and East Siberia all the snow has almost completely melted out, and the largest remaining patches of snow are situated in Nunavut, just south of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and Central Siberia, south of Taymyr Peninsula. And this is where the current temperature forecast comes in. According to Climate Reanalyzer a lot of anomalously high temperatures are forecast to envelop just these last snow-covered regions:

This animation is a combination of the GFS temperature anomaly forecast and the IMS Snow & Ice Chart as provided by the US National Ice Center. We'll see how much snow is left after next week. Build that snowman while you still can.

Current weather conditions aren't as conducive to extent decrease as they were the past couple of weeks, and will remain so for the coming week, but there's plenty of stuff going on nonetheless. We now await the PIOMAS update to see what May has meant for sea ice volume.

PS Here's May SAT for the 2005-2016 period (NCEP Reanalysis Dataset):

PPS Over at The Great White Con, Jim Hunt has posted some additional info on what the anomalous warmth in Siberia is doing to the ice. Check it out.

Comments

[Neven]

Also check out RobertScribbler's latest: Siberian heatwave wrecks sea ice as Greenland High settles in

[Villabolo]

I think it's time to harass Tony Heller. :-)

[Ian Allen]

It is easy to forget that The DMI 80 degree number is not really a sane measure of anything as it treats the area as a cylinder with 89 degrees counting the same as 80. We should just use the area-weighted (sane) Andrew Slater graph next door unless making historical comparisons. This looks bang on average to me.

[DavidR]

The ESRL-NOAA data, with area weighting, shows the 80N+ area as the hottest since 2010 in May and as the hottest on record by a big margin for the first 5 months of the year.

SO DMI may not be perfect but its a good first estimate.

[Ian Allen]

I only meant that the recent dip below average doesn't seem to be present on the equal-area measure.

[Jim Hunt]

Villabolo - I'm already "Harassing Heller":

Arctic Fraud Continues Unabated

Have you noticed that the world’s leading expert on satellite imagery of the Arctic during the first 3/4 of the Holocene epoch has compared MODIS imagery of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from May 2015 with May 2016 and confirmed that there is no noticeable difference in sea ice extent between the two?

Feel free to join the fun!

[Jim Hunt]

My own take on the "official" start of the 2016 surface melting season:

Summer 2016 Surface Melt Takes Off

The ESS and NW Passage are obviously melting. The cryodenialosphere are trying desperately to deny it. There are almost no buoys left out there measuring it.

[Villabolo]

Yes, Jim, I've seen you there.

I'm currently debating with them on their thread "Atmospheric Temperatures Plummeting At A Record Pace".

I'm sure they'll change their tune come September.

:-)

[Colorado Bob]

Everyone eyeball this - Make a note of it .

SNPP/VIIRS
2016/155
06/03/2016
05:30 UTC

Smoke and fires in eastern Russia

https://lance.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Russia.A2016155.0530.1500m.jpg

[Jim Hunt]

Bob - Such things are more easily tracked via Worldview. See for example:

http://go.nasa.gov/25H07os

and:

http://go.nasa.gov/1Zo5dPa

[Jim Hunt]

Those "Temperatures in eastern Siberia" have reached the ice. Here's the latest JAXA/ADS surface melt map:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/06/summer-2016-surface-melt-takes-off/#Jun-05

[wayne]

Hi Jim

Is this surface melting? Sure looks like it, or melt ponds. Note open water in Frobisher Bay at both ends there is ice though, could it also be sea water on top of sea ice?

It is correct to interpret automatic melting when temperatures are high especially above 0 C. But this can be only detected for the surface part. Neven's readers here may know the underside of the story. Now for a look at what Jim's insightful links may be seen like in reality on the same day:

http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/06/sometimes-top-and-bottom-melting-looks.html

Top ice core is colder than the air, despite warmer than 0 C surface air, water is not everywhere. There is also surface sea water rising above on thinner ice surrounded by thicker multiyear ice (tidal activity). This would also affect the JAXA precision. Note North of Ellesmere is not exactly wide open water now, neither is the warmest place, the bluish surface may be such events.

[Jim Hunt]

Wayne - Wipneus explains in more detail over on the ASIF:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg79261.html#msg79261

Thickness is explained on the ADS site, but "melt ice concentration" is not. I assume that it is the same as "melt pond concentration"

[wayne]

Thanks Jim

So its surface melt, very well, but there is the other wondrous ice universe, the underside.

Are all the buoys minimum core temperatures near -3? A way to confirm melt ponds, would be with core minimum temperatures. A match with existing buoy data, a melt "pond on top" buoy profile would be most excellent info.

[wayne]

Neven, Jim

Come to think of it, data numbers of the following active buoy data would be most useful on Arctic Sea Ice Graphs page:

Average sea ice temperature in the column, minimum temperature in the column and maximum temperature------ of each buoy and all of them combined.

[Jim Hunt]

Wayne - 2015F is the only ERDC/CRREL ice mass balance buoy currently reporting. There are "funding constraints" apparently. Here's what data I have:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2016-imbs/#2015F

Click the pushpins on the map to reveal the sort of thing you're looking for. Additional suggestions are welcome.

Since it's currently located at around 82 degrees north I think it will be a while before it's sitting in a melt pond!

[wayne]

Yikes Jim

one buoy will have to do, the only 2016 one was ideally located near Barrow now has power problems! Bad luck. 2015F -3.34 core temp minima seems very warm, note there should be reflectance, core minimum temp should be similar to surface temperature, and it is, give or take about +-.5 C. Of course by recently obtained vastly more precise, 0 C error, refraction relation top of core minima has to be = or colder than surface air. Therefore surface air matters if measured, by transposition extensive melt ponds cover should make surface air temp greater than -1.8 C. But there is hope, looking at surface temperature map:

https://weather.gc.ca/data/analysis/935_100.gif

2 more mysterious buoys are reporting surface data, 48594 situated off NW coast of CAA reports -1 C, possibly melt ponds or warmed sea water on top of much thinner sea ice surrounded by much thicker multiyear ice. 48769 reported -2 C well North of Alaska, suggesting minimum core ice temp just below -2. 48769
is equally at a great location, almost smack centre of the Gyre.
When its temperature exceeds -1.8 suspect water.

[Andy Lee Robinson]

Arctic Death Spiral - another record:
Average volume for May lowest ever at 20,991km³

http://haveland.com/share/arctic-death-spiral.jpg

Averages for May:
2007 23,078
2008 24,102
2009 23,851
2010 22,181
2011 21,108
2012 21,677
2013 21,839
2014 21,878
2015 23,000
2016 20,991

[Sarat]

As expected remnants of NA snow cover retreating rapidly in the heat:
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/NH_SNOW/

[wayne]

In this new age of overwhelming data availability, the Arctic is a desert of isolation, offers very little fact checking observations. Of those which are available,
very few may be accurate about the surface to air interface:

http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/06/the-models-may-be-calculating-sea-ice.html

I conclude that mass buoy surface temperatures are good, top thermistors leave a lot to be desired, but the rest of their data seems very plausible. With this, ice models missing 2007 melt by 31 years, have very little to work with.

[Colorado Bob]

‘We’ve never seen anything like this': Arctic sea ice hit a stunning new low in May

Link

[Colorado Bob]

But here’s what the National Snow and Ice Data Center has to say about that:

Daily extents in May were also two to four weeks ahead of levels seen in 2012, which had the lowest September extent in the satellite record. The monthly average extent for May 2016 is more than one million square kilometers (386,000 square miles) below that observed in May 2012.