Last week, NSIDC scientist Andrew Slater died unexpectedly. It goes without saying that the news shocked me, and I wasn't the only one (here's the memorial web page).
I had never met him, although we mailed once or twice in the past year. He also occasionally commented on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum, to chime in or explain one thing or other about some of the work he did.
Most of all, I increasingly used images and graphs from his wonderful personal website, for blog posts and on the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website, that features several of his graphs on the front page.
I guess that's why the passing of this near-stranger really struck me emotionally. The fact that a scientist would spend so much of his energy and own time to freely share all that info and visualized data, not just for fellow scientists via the peer-review process, but for the lay public as well, on a website chock-full of near-real time graphs (snow cover, sea ice, model forecast)...
It's invaluable. It really says something about a person.
Speaking of model forecast, here on the blog and on the forum, people continuously referred to Slater's model, which over the years performed really well in the SIPN Sea Ice Outlooks:
Back in July I paid extra attention to his prediction for this year's September minimum, writing a few things about it in this blog post. Who knows, Slater would perhaps even have improved his method, as it seems he was looking into the relationships between terrestrial snow cover and sea ice extent (based on this poster at the 2016 Polar Prediction Workshop). We'll never know.
Andrew Slater was about to enter the best and most productive phase of his career as a scientist, in a field that is in my view one of the most important on the planet, doing research and guiding students, helping science forward so that we collectively learn as much as we can about sea ice. Not to perfectly forecast when the Arctic will be ice-free, but to be able to bring it back safely one day.
We can't afford to lose such an important person, but we did. And that's life. Aside from the tragic loss for his relatives and friends, Andrew Slater's knowledge and skills will be sorely missed in decades to come. Even by people who didn't know him.
About predictions : When your model is consistently making skillful predictions, it increases your understanding of the system.
For me personally, as a participant in SIPN, I have come to respect Dr. Slater's modeling as an example of how to do better forecasts of September ice extent. He used ice-concentration as a precursor for September extent, and was very successful in doing so.
This year, his forecast (of 4.4 M km^2 for September average) will again be pretty darn close to "spot-on", which suggests he is on the right track in understanding the system better than anyone else.
I sincerely hope that his work (incorporating land snow cover in the model) will be continued by his colleagues.
Dr. Slater, I miss you. May you rest in peace.
Posted by: Rob Dekker | September 20, 2016 at 08:00
As I mentioned previously, the news shocked me too Neven.
"Blizzard of Oz" took the time and trouble to pop into the Arctic Sea Ice Forum, and not just announce the latest news but also engage in meaningful discussions.
He will be sadly missed, and his shoes are big ones to fill.
RIP Blizzard.
Posted by: Jim Hunt | September 21, 2016 at 13:15
Hi folks,
What a tragic loss for his family, friends, and the science community. He will be sorely missed, but never forgotten.
Full Scientist Interviews: Andrew Slater - Aug 2012
Does anyone know what happened? Feel free to send a PM to me on the Forum if you don't feel comfortable sharing here.
Best regards,
Lodger
RIP Drew.
Posted by: Artful Dodger | September 21, 2016 at 13:59
Thanks for this post, Neven. The photo captures Drew's sense of fun and enthusiasm for his work. He brought new perspectives and energy when he came into the room, and of course outdoors as well. It was a sad shock to learn that we've lost him.
Posted by: L. Hamilton | September 22, 2016 at 16:02
Neven, what happened ?
Posted by: Rob Dekker | September 26, 2016 at 07:11
You mean to Andrew Slater? I don't know. Someone mailed me and wrote that he was found in his home. So my guess is a heart attack or some such.
Posted by: Neven | September 26, 2016 at 08:02
Wow, that's terrible news.
So long Blizzard.
:(
Posted by: Chris Reynolds | October 02, 2016 at 12:45
according to http://www.legacy.com/obituaries/dailycamera/obituary.aspx?n=andrew-slater&pid=181701841 Dr Slater " passed away unexpectedly of natural causes at his home in Boulder in the beginning of September."
Posted by: Bdwo | October 04, 2016 at 02:56