PIOMAS October 2016

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

The minimum was reached in September for modelled sea ice volume as well, and 2016 came in third, just behind 2011 (99 km3 difference) and well behind 2012 (728 km3). In the meantime, despite the early date of minimum and the rapid increase in extent that followed it, 2016 caught up with 2011 a bit and they are practically at a par at the end of September. 2016 clearly belongs in the 2010-2012 group and is much lower than the years preceding that period and the rebound years that followed 2012.

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

And here are the numbers and bar graph that show how this year's total melt stacked up against other years. It is 5th highest, bearing in mind that maximum sea ice volume was second lowest on record back in April after a mild winter, with total accumulation being third lowest in the 2006-2016 record:

Wipneus' version of the PIOMAS volume graph also shows how this year's trend line almost dropped as low as 2011, and has been on a par ever since:

Of course, the trend line on the PIOMAS sea ice volume anomaly graph is still well below the linear trend, in the lower range of the 1 standard deviation zone:

When extent increases as fast as it did in the last two-three weeks of September, it usually means that it's mostly very thin ice that is forming at the edges of the ice pack. The PIJAMAS graph, based on my crude calculation of PIOMAS volume numbers divided by total JAXA sea ice extent, is showing that this is the case, with average thickness going lowest for a while and still being quite low at the end of September:

The thickness plot from the Polar Science Center is showing something similar:

This month Wipneus' comparison maps are even more interesting than they have been all melting season. I've picked out the comparison with the 2011 and 2012 Septembers (red means ice is thicker there now, blue the opposite):

I see two things. First of all, the dark red in the channels of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago compared to 2011 and 2012. That's because this year we witnessed again the phenomenon of thick multi-year ice being pushed south (see the 2016 melting season in images blog post). This ice is basically done for in years to come. On the whole, ice is not getting thicker or older.

Second, and more importantly, there's this big red blob alongside the Atlantic side of the Arctic. This is the ice that dodged the bullet this year (and explains the difference with the 2011 and 2012 minimums), but alas, it will likely prove to be a Pyrrhic victory, as this ice is perfectly poised for transport to the Barentsz and Greenland Seas over winter.

Unless this coming winter proves to be exceptionally cold, the ice pack is likely to remain near the low levels of the post-2010 period. Of course, it all depends on conditions. Will the extremely high global temperatures affect the Arctic and keep temps as high as they have been this year so far (except for June, July and August), as shown on this image provided by Zachary Labe:

As the Sun shifts away from the top of the Northern Hemisphere, we wait and see what winter has in store for our Arctic. I would like to wish it well, but that's not something one says to a terminally ill patient. I'll say it nevertheless:

Comments

[viddaloo]

Great post, Nev!

Count to 3 not required:

Big: http://i.imgur.com/1bq0rjG.png

2016 year–to–date average goes below 10 million km2 as the earliest year on satellite record, a full ten days before 2012.

Before the shocking 2016 collapse season, 2012 was regarded as the lowest year for Arctic sea ice.

[Gerald Spezio]

...terminally ill patient.
Be well Arctic.
Paradoxical???
Try to be well until we can't?

Have you seen James Hansen's recent videos with his young grand daughter,Sophie?

LAWSUITS, LAWYERFISH, & THE ROBED LAWYERFISH SUPREMES WILL SAVE OUR SHIP???

JIM, YOU JEST?

[John Christensen]

Thank you for another great PIOMAS update Neven!

The only item I would question is this:

"When extent increases as fast as it did in the last two-three weeks of September, it usually means that it's mostly very thin ice that is forming at the edges of the ice pack"

Based on the dispersing winds in September, the high SSTs around the remaining pack and air temps not being low enough, I suspect very little new ice has formed at the edges of the ice pack.
Rather, new ice has formed at the center of the pack, while surviving floes have been spread out, thereby increasing the SIE.

[Andy Lee Robinson]

5 days of rendering later!
Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Volumes 1979-2016:
https://youtu.be/9NP0L1PG9ag

Retweets would help!
https://twitter.com/ahaveland/status/786297743144656896

[viddaloo]

Amazing work, Andy! As for 'kilometers' (thousands of lines) of code: I hear you! Sometimes it doesn't even help that you wrote those lines yourself.... :)

[Andy Lee Robinson]

Thanks vid, very few can really appreciate the amount of work that went into producing this - I even wrote the 3D matrix transformations, trigonometry, splines and interpolations using Perl as well, and parellelized the code to distribute and collate rendering tasks among disparate local and remote servers using Mysql to hold frame stats.

Bonus was that I could turn off the central heating while the servers were humming away, though my UPS was squealing under the stress!

Why didn't I use Blender and Python? Well... it might have been easier after climbing that learning curve, but Perl and Povray are what I know really really well, so the code grew incrementally as I thought of new things to do.

At least it makes it easier to re-run with new data, but after a year of dormancy I have to spend a day relearning where everything is and what parameters to tweak.

Still, amazing what can be achieved using Linux with a text editor and command lines!

[Susan Anderson]

Just like in Spring, Arctic is oddly warm. I can't imagine that is a good sign. So much for the "recovery" assertions from denialland.

[viddaloo]

Agree, Susan. Right now we see Annual Average Extent going straight down the toilet, resembling early or mid August of 2007 and 2012, respectively, and from a MUCH lower starting point:

Big: http://i.imgur.com/9uIEAJk.png

IMO, it's always possible for 'denizens' to cherrypick start & end dates, like Sep 7—27, and dream up some 'record fast recovery' or whatever they need for their agit–prop. I see the Annual Averages as a fair & balanced counterpoint to this development: When averaged over 365 days, the record low of 2016 is undeniable, yet of course that doesn't stop people denying it! Folks will just simply say it 'looks wrong' during their first 5 seconds of viewing the graph, as though a graph showing the decline of the price of oranges was inherently wrong because the price of apples were up .... Facts are still facts, though, and the longer term declines are in fact undeniable for anyone inclined to actually look at the graph description and background.

[wayne]

Viddaloo

In a few days looks like 2016 will be #1 lowest again, reinforcing long term averages as well. 2016 extent 3 days behind 2012 and not growing fast at all compared to 12.

[viddaloo]

In other news, Chris Reynolds tells me on his blog he's updated regional (PIOMAS) ice volume csv files:

Google Drive directory.

[viddaloo]

Wayne,

yup, 2012 today has almost a triple–century increase, at +289 k km2.

Arctic Sea Ice Collapse 19 September—14 October

We're now running out of future at the stunning pace of 111 km³ a month ...

See the full–size graph & read the whole blog post here: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/viddaloo/arctic-sea-ice-collapse-19-september14-october-annual-average-volu

[wayne]

Hi Viddaloo

Despite what a few believe, 2016 had a very significant melt masked by the largest Arctic dispersion event I have ever observed. I also wonder if floating snow is considered as sea ice? Or whether we can differentiate snow from sea ice remotely?

http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/10/jaxa-extent-artifact-or-floating-snow.html

[viddaloo]

I agree, Wayne, and I think the 45° right turn seen in the annual extent graph at the start of October is a fingerprint of sorts of that record dispersion event.

Our demolition of Arctic sea ice goes on into winter:

Click here to see the full–size graph & read the whole blog post.