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I think that the domino effect is starting badly..
No way to recover old thicker ice and thin ice that will became normal weak ice, ready to disappear once the freezing season will end up..
Thanks for the post, Neven.


Stewecar, https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=119.0;attach=53247;image this graph seems to make it all crystal clear!

Aksel Gasbjerg

Excuse being off topic but i have a pressing question.

Assumptions in a thought example:
The air today contains 400 ppm CO2
We will emit 40 gt CO2 in the coming year, of which 20 gt ends in the air and 20 gt ends in the ocean/land.
The emissions result in an increase of 2 ppm to 402 ppm CO2 in a year.

With these assumptions (and of course, Ceteris Paribus) I have the following questions:
If tomorrow we cut CO2 emissions from 40 to 20 gt, what are ppm in a year?
If we stop total CO2 emissions tomorrow, what are ppm in a year?


Aksel Gasbkerg,

If the CO2 emission rate were to halve tomorrow then the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration over the next year would be about half of what it would have been if the CO2 emission rate had remained the same. If CO2 emissions were to stop tomorrow then the atmospheric CO2 concentration in a year would about the same as it is now.

This topic has been debated on here though, and not everyone agrees.


Aksel Gasbjerg

The August 2017 figure for atmospheric CO2 is 405.07ppm and this compares with the August 2016 figure of 402.45ppm.

From 2012 to the present time emissions have been on a slightly downward trend but CO2 levels continue to rise at an increasing rate.

It is stating the obvious saying that CO2 emissions should be reduced as quickly as possible but on the evidence to-date it appears that reduced CO2 emissions do not lead to reduced atmospheric CO2ppm.

As commented by D_C_S...much debate on this issue and not everyone agreed.


There are some excellent discussions in this segment of the Arctic Sea Ice Forum.

Andy Lee Robinson

I've just made a new ice cube video for 2017.
With record low volumes earlier this year, we were considering the possibility we could be see a complete melt-out if the exceptional melt continued.
Fortunately melt-rate decelerated substantially over the summer and pulled back from the brink.
However, this year's minimum volume is virtually unchanged from last year.

Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Volumes 1979-2017

Notes: Tweaked camera motion a little, increased framerate from 25 to 30 fps and added more pause at the end.
I use perl to make povray scripts, and am currently rendering a 4k version (3840x2160) which will take about a week for all the slaves to complete!


Almost as scary as this: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/1954/10/figure4b.png

Was that Philip Glass in the soundtrack, btw?

Andy Lee Robinson

Yup, that's also pretty scary...
The soundtrack is me just improvising on the piano for this clip, but I appreciate your comparison!
Took hundreds of hours to write the rendering/scheduling code, 48+ hours to do the render across 8 Linux servers, and then 30 secs to play the music for it!



You should know your work is appreciated and the Internet will always have it. Good job!

John Christensen

I just came across this explanation from Phys.org and Claire Parkinson, Sr Climate Scientist, NASA, for lowest summer Arctic SIE that I found puzzling ( https://phys.org/news/2017-09-end-of-summer-arctic-sea-ice-extent.html ):

"The three years with the lowest Arctic ice extents on record —2012, 2016 and 2007— experienced strong summer storms that hammered the ice cover and sped up its melt. "In all of those cases, the weather conditions contributed to the reduced ice coverage. But if the exact same weather system had occurred three decades ago, it is very unlikely that it would have caused as much damage to the sea ice cover, because back then the ice was thicker and it more completely covered the region, hence making it more able to withstand storms," Parkinson said."

The low summer SIE in 2007, unless my memory fails me entirely, was caused primarily by a strong Beaufort gyre, extraordinary export via Fram and unprecedented in-situ melting in Beaufort due to rapid SST increase and strong bottom-melt.

Also, wouldn't really agree that strong summer storms were the main differentiators of 2012 and 2016 compared to other recent summers - rather the contrary..

Andy Lee Robinson

Thanks, that means a lot - I often wonder if it's worth the effort and personal sacrifice.
Positive feedback and recognition helps to motivate me to continue, especially if I know it is helping to move the needle in world opinion.

When I started making this in 2013, I thought naively that it might go viral, and that if everyone could see it, they might just realize how much we are damaging the habitability of our world and want to do something about it.

Of course, there are a lot of people that really really do not want people to see it, and lots of people that really can't, don't, or don't want to understand its significance or feel that it is worth sharing, so it circulates in our bubble of activists and doesn't break out to where it needs to be shown.

However, it has had some success and I have a list of sites that have published it such as The Guardian, Washington Post, Slate, Think Progress, New York Times, but still nowhere near the level I think it deserves!

Few other visualizations communicate our dire situation more explicitly and effectively, and I really tried my best with the skills I have to make it interesting and appealing.


Hi Andy

Just played it in the office. My colleagues thought it was my phone ringing, and they really liked the pleasant tune. Maybe a downloadable version for smart phones may do the trick you are asking for.

Cheers P

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