« Freezing season has started, or has it? | Main | PIOMAS November 2018 »

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Neven

Latest JAXA SIE data is in, lowest on record as of yesterday.

William Crump

This is a weather related phenomena.

What are the specific weather related conditions that are causing this particular ice condition?

It is clear that arctic sea ice is in a long term decline due to climate forcing caused by increased CO2 and AGW.

This particular decline, while part of the general climate pattern, is better described as part of the variability caused by weather for a particular year.

The Daily Arctic Temperature graph displayed above showed much higher than normal temperatures for January through March and still ice survived in September of 2018.

While tracking current conditions are important, please disclose what the historical observed correlation of October ice conditions are compared to the subsequent September minimum.

Please present facts, not guesses or "I wouldn't be surprised" statements.

These people claim that:

"By using a simple and computationally inexpensive statistical approach, one can anticipate more than 80% of SSIE up to 4 months in advance, based on the antecedent atmospheric and oceanic conditions over stable regions."

September Arctic Sea Ice minimum prediction – a new skillful statistical
approach

https://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2018-61/esd-2018-61.pdf

A method that can only predict 80% of actual coverage 4 months in advance does not appear to be a particularly useful method, but perhaps others will not see it that way.

I do like their honesty when they admit

"The predictability of these extreme years poses big challenges for the sea ice prediction
community."

William Crump

Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting

"atmospheric variability provides an inherent limit on sea ice predictability. For example, while 2013 started out with a large fraction of thin, first-year ice following the record minimum of 2012, comparatively benign summer weather conditions enabled a large fraction of that thin ice to survive, which was not foreseen by the forecasting community. Thus, while we expect sea ice extent to continue to decline in response to forcing from atmospheric greenhouse gases, interannual departures from this long-term trend will remain hard to predict."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4455712/

Jim Hunt

I'd noticed the record low JAXA extent as well Neven, along with a few other interesting bits of data:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2018/10/facts-about-the-arctic-in-october-2018/

Here's CryoSat-2 thickness for example:


There's a remarkable lack of thick ice in the Wandel Sea off north east Greenland this Autumn.

Jim Hunt

P.S. I upgraded WordPress over at GWC today.

Everything looks fine in my usual browser, Opera. In others the images aren't displaying properly. Sorting that out will have to wait until tomorrow (UTC).

Just click the little thumbnail if you want to see the informative images.

Neven

Please present facts, not guesses or "I wouldn't be surprised" statements.

You want me to present facts about the future? Okay.

We're all going to die.

William Crump

Neven

Of course, but not from AGW.

People will adapt.

What I was looking for was a measure of whether October ice conditions have any predictive significance with respect to the following year September minimum.

Your statement was a rather unscientific guess - how about some data about correlations based on prior year observations and whether October conditions have any correlation to the following September minimum.

Anybody can guess.

Neven

Of course, but not from AGW.

Can you present facts to corroborate your statement? Anybody can guess.

What I was looking for was a measure of whether October ice conditions have any predictive significance with respect to the following year September minimum.

Of course not. It is neither short-term nor long-term enough. Have you just started looking into Arctic sea ice loss?

Your statement was a rather unscientific guess

It wasn't a guess at all. I'm not guessing anything. I'm saying I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing happens that we've seen the past couple of winters (relatively warm, low extent, low volume). I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't either.

I simply don't know. Isn't that the most scientific thing one can say?

how about some data about correlations based on prior year observations and whether October conditions have any correlation to the following September minimum.

There is not enough data. Ask again in 20-30 years. Are you done trolling now?

William Crump

Neven

I have been here many years and even kicked money into the pot at one point.

I value the site for its science and observations.

I have been a critic of simple line drawing projections of future Arctic Sea Ice and projections of a faster disappearance of ice at the September minimum, and premature claims concerning when the arctic will have ice free summers. My criticism has been born out by actual conditions and observations.

Any time current ice conditions are low there are comments about this being the year of a new minimum.

How accurate are such projections?

Based on your comments, it appears that there is no correlation and such comments are not valid.

Just go back and look at comments I made in 2011 that predicted that the arctic would not be ice free in the time frame indicated by Wipnius's line projections and others, including Wieslaw Maslowski.

There appears to be a database going back to 1979. That is 39 years so I do not understand your contention that there are not sufficient data points to prepare a correlation analysis and that 59-69 years of data are required.

Waiting 20-30 years will be too late as there will be many periods far below the minimal standard used by many commentators as to what constitutes "ice free" conditions at the September minimum over the next 30 years.

I provided a link to research by Mark C. Serreze and Julienne Stroeve. Are they not considered reputable researchers on Arctic Sea Ice?

Serreze is the Director of the NSIDC.

Julienne Stroeve is a Senior Research Scientist at NSIDC.

I was hoping you had information on the correlation of current ice conditions to the next September minimum as opposed to a statement concerning your lack of surprise as to what future conditions might be regardless of what those conditions might be.

If you do not have the information just say so.

William Crump

Neven

Which of the current models do you endorse, if any, as having the most accurate projection of future arctic sea ice?

Jim Hunt

@Neven - Logging in via Facebook is still broken. What's the problem with that?

@William - If you've been around that long why can you not understand that questions like:

Which of the current models do you endorse, if any, as having the most accurate projection of future arctic sea ice?

sound an awful lot like "trolling" in Neven's book, and in my alter ego "Snow White's" for that matter?

AnotherJourneybyTrain

Jim, would you be worried at all that the seasonal FDD-Anomaly is now officially the lowest on record?

The 30 day anomaly is of course a ghastly colour but the 7 and 1 day anomalies look to have calmed down a bit.

So, would you be worried about any of this at this point or could this all turn back to normal lickety-split?

Jim Hunt

Hooray!

I can comment again at long last, after a not so brief hiatus.

Logged in using Typepad credentials on this occasion.

Now where were we?

crandles

comment box appeared for me too.

Neven

Now where were we?

We're here. ;-)

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Your Information

(Name is required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)