PIOMAS June 2019

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

As you can see, 2019 has moved into second place on the PIOMAS volume graph. The drop of 3234 km3 for May was third highest on record (after 2010 and 2012 which dropped 3523 and 3508 km3 respectively) and well above the average May decrease of 2621 km3. Last month, 2019 was on a par with 2011, 2016 and 2018 for second place, but now there is no question who is second. And 2017's lead has been reduced further from 1665 to 1015 km3.

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

Wipneus' version of the PIOMAS graph also shows the minuscule lead over all the other years, except 2017, which is about to end its extraordinary excursion:

The anomaly trend line on the PIOMAS volume anomaly graph has dropped like a rock, smashing through the linear trend line, ending up in negative standard deviation territory in one fell swoop:


PIJAMAS is also highly interesting this month. Remember, PIJAMAS is a measure for average thickness of the ice pack, and is crudely calculated by dividing PIOMAS volume numbers with JAXA extent numbers. When extent drops faster than volume, average thickness will go up, as the volume is spread over a smaller ice pack. But what we see in the graph below, is the opposite. Extent dropped steadily during May, but volume went down somewhat faster, and thus average thickness has decreased. While the thickness of most years increased during May, or practically stayed the same, two years show a marked decline: 2012 and 2019.

The Polar Science Centre average thickness graph shows it too:

One of the main reasons there was such a large volume drop during the past month had to do with air temperatures. Arctic-wide, May 2019 was the warmest on record, mainly because of record high temperatures on the Pacific side and especially the Canadian side of the Arctic (-2.855 vs -3.604 °C in 2006):

But atmospheric conditions played a large part as well, with high pressure dominating over much of the Arctic for weeks on end. And of course, high pressure means open skies. The Sun is still too low during May to have an immediate impact on the high-albedo ice, except perhaps towards the end of the month. But then there's the wind as well, and due to the persistent position of the high pressure area, sea ice was ripped away from the Canadian and Alaskan coasts. It won't take long now before we have open water from the Bering Strait all the way to the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, something I speculated about in 2016. Back then, the North American coast went ice-free during the first week of July, which was very early. This year it may happen three-four weeks earlier (follow the event in near real-time on the ASIF, here).

Here's an image showing surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly and mean sea level pressure (SLP) maps from the NOAA ESRL Daily Mean Composites website. This gives an idea of what kind of weather and temps cause the biggest drops in volume (in km3, below the years):

Currently, the weather models indicate a continuation of what we've seen so far, although low pressure areas are starting to play a role as well. It's all about preconditioning now, about the ice turning blue due to melt ponds, about how much melting momentum gets built up. 2019 is slightly behind 2012 on that front, but if it can keep up during June, it's almost assured of a top 3 position and may even get a shot at the record. Depending on July and August weather, of course. Let's first wait and see what June has in store for the Arctic. I will have more on melting momentum later this month.

I'll end with one more PIOMAS image, showing thickness anomaly (red means thicker ice, blue means thinner ice, as compared to the 2011-2018 period): If it's true that most of the thicker ice is on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, things aren't looking great. But the same could be said of 2017, and the Arctic managed to dodge that cannonball. Let's hope for the best.

Comments

[D]

FishOutofWater here -

Unfortunately, the volume anomaly in the Barents sea has started to melt out in Worldview images. Likewise, the Kara sea ice is rapidly melting and blowing out while winds are blowing Atlantic water into the southwestern side of the Kara sea.

[AnotherJourneybyTrain]

DMI temp has me very worried... that and the anomaly graphs: let alone what Neven just said!

Should I be freaking out about now or is everything fine?

[Neven]

Somewhere in between, AJbT. But hope for some weather that's good for the ice.

[Robert S]

All that open water from the Bering to the CAA, plus clear skies, will certainly mean a lot of heat going into the water at this time of year. We can watch for melt ponds above, but we really need better data on the "melt ponds below".

[AnotherJourneybyTrain]

Robert S, how does the untrained eyespot meltponds from above: can we see them on worldview?

[Neven]

Here are some of the strands of evidence, AJbT.

[iceman]

The last image is about the worst indicator I've seen for volume this season, especially with southerly winds near FJL for at least the next week.

[wayne]

Speaking 'bout images, 2019 is on a serious contention path to exceed 2012 super melt. As I wrote months ago, the dye was set during the winter just past:

https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/06/bye-bye-2012-record-course.html

I give 70% likelyhood of 2012 being beaten and a commercial shipping lane near the North Pole to happen.

[Robert S]

AJBT, I do image to image comparisons looking for colour change - generally gives a reasonable, if broad, indication.

[AnotherJourneybyTrain]

DMI Temp and the 1-day anomaly are extremely interesting today: I must say.

[AnotherJourneybyTrain]

Peterlvmeng, from the forum, did a sattelite comparison of the Laptev for the 11th of June between 2012 and 2019. ( https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.1700.html , reply #1741)

I thought it was interesting how some of the land features of snowless areas were the same... or even worse in 2012... perhaps meaning indicators on land can speak loudly!??!

Yes, but, the point- I suppose- was to try and illustrate the nature of 2019 so I would have to say the Laptev does look interesting. As for the forest fires question posed by Sambucca in the immediately previous post I would have to say: "Soot can cause temperature inversions!:

[AnotherJourneybyTrain]

I don't mean to be incredibly uncredible: but the slater 50 day forecast just took a mean looking dive today...

[AnotherJourneybyTrain]

DMI temp and the one day anomaly are still playing games... although it's only the Laptev part of things and the central basin seems fine.

[AnotherJourneybyTrain]

What happened to Greenland? How unusual is that temperature spike?

[AnotherJourneybyTrain]

Can anyone refute this, (please)?

"Permafrost has begun thawing in the Canadian Arctic more than 70 years early because of climate change, according to new research.

A "series of anomalously warm summers” has dramatically accelerated melting rates at three sites despite average annual ground temperatures remaining low. Ponds and hillocks have formed as a result.

It had been thought that the permafrost - ground that remains frozen for at least two years - would remain until at least 2090.

But the study found thawing levels were above 150 to 240 per cent above historic levels. "

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/climate-change-breakdown-arctic-frost-thawing-canada-environment-a8959056.html

The trouble I have is with the seemingly assumed knowledge of the third paragraph... Is that third paragraph anywhere near the truth or not?

[AnotherJourneybyTrain]

Greenland, Global Sea Ice and Total Precipitable Water look out of control. Luckily DMI Temp seems to have returned to normal (!??!)

[AnotherJourneybyTrain]

Worldview has a very interesting take on the Lincoln Sea/ Nares Strait debate ... (and personally I'm wondering if Greenland is still even there!!)

[Gizmo]

The area graph has shown a brief uptick. My take is that this is the ice breaking up and spreading out a bit, getting a few more pixels above the 15% threshold. Seems like we're witnessing the last ditch effort of the planet to cool its northern pole; switching from block ice to crushed.

[AnotherJourneybyTrain]

The Slater 50 day projection has taken a serious about turn: what would be in the heuristic that might be responsible for this action?

[Chris Reynolds]

Hi Neven (and others).

Hope you're all fine.

To my amazement it's been three years since I last blogged on sea ice. The wet June weather here in the UK has made me wonder about this subject and I found the same thing you noted, a monster high over the pack and Greenland. Should be an interesting summer.

It's been over four years since I put forward my Slow Transition argument. http://dosbat.blogspot.com/2015/05/the-slow-transition.html

I was curious, what are people's views on the future of the Arctic summer sea ice? Not whether we will see an ice free pack but when it's likely.

[Neven]

Hey Chris, good to hear from you!

It has been my wish to pick up blogging again for a while now, but circumstances simply don't allow it.

I've always thought that your Slow Transition theory made a lot of sense. But I think that a freak year with exceptional conditions can overcome it. I mean, just imagine, after the 2016/2017 winter - which was horrible for the ice (see the purple line on the first graph of this blog post) - the 2017 melting season would get confronted with this year's weather.

I mostly agree with the consensus opinion that the Arctic could go ice-free between 2030-2040, but I wouldn't be surprised if it happened earlier because of an extraordinary melting season.

[P-maker]

Hi Chris
Nice to see you back. Hope you have made a difference elsewhere over the past three years.

According to my memory, we still have some unfinished business regarding the sea ice extent in the Greenland Sea the year before the S.... hits the fan.

At the moment, we are at 550,000 km2 and rising. I was wondering if you could do your wonders, and provide a rough estimate of when we will hit 1 mio. Km2 in this particular part of the Nordic seas. That might be a good indicator of a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean.

Cheers P

[Jim Hunt]

Hi Chris,

Long time no see!

I referred to the "Slow Transition" not so very long ago over on the ASIF:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2709.msg201628.html#msg201628

Much discussion ensued!

[AnotherJourneybyTrain]

Neven, If the consensus(the forum consensus I presume you mean) is that the Arctic will go under 1,000 K by 2040 at the latest,... doesn't that mean the forum consensus thinks the Arctic will definitely go under 3,000 K by 2030 at the latest,.. IF NOT BEFORE 2030?

[Jim Hunt]

AJbT - I assume that Neven was referring to the "scientific" consensus?

[Chris Reynolds]

Hi Neven, P Maker, Jim,

Good too see some old names. I'll comment later today when I get the chance.

Neven, especially good to see you're still keeping this blog going.

P Maker. I've been on an odd journey intellectually over the last few years. Not involved in anything like climate change, but I always have mixed annoyance and pity (at their stupidity) for the climate change deniers (Donkeys!).

Jim, I'll read that thread and I'll make some time to try to catch up on this subject over the weekend. But it's been literally years since I maintained my code and datasets, so I won't have data to offer. Very out of date from that angle.

Now you all probably know more about sea ice than me.

[Chris Reynolds]

Jim,
Thanks for reminding me of the forum, just had an interesting read over there. PIOMAS 20C looks exciting, in netcdf files and I never got round to translating those into Excel VBA.

Programming in C++ now and dabbling in an increasingly serious manner with AI.

[Jim Hunt]

My pleasure Chris,

You may also wish to take a look at what A-Team is up to these days?

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2558.msg204548.html#msg204548

[AnotherJourneybyTrain]

So,Jim, surely that means the SCIENTIFIC concensus is that the Arctic sea ice will go below 3000 k by 2030 doesn't it?

[Jim Hunt]

AJbT - I suspect that Rear Admiral White may have revised his prediction somewhat by now, but back in 2013 the US NAVY consensus was 2023.

Listen to the first track carefully:

https://soundcloud.com/water-connects-us

By all means listen to the other tracks too!

[AnotherJourneybyTrain]

Cheers, Jim. Personally I'm not altogether sure we will see Arctic sea ice go below 3000 k in the next decade: to me that would be indeed truly a harbinger... I saw your graph on the North Eastern sea route ice and I'm still recovering.

[AnotherJourneybyTrain]

Oh, I also noted the 50 day forecast resumed a dive. Is it weird everyone seems to be talking about fast-ice?

[P-maker]

AJbT,

Fast ice refers to the old Danish expression: "Fastis" or literally sea ice fastened to or attached to the land.

This is opposed to the old Danish expression: "Storis", meaning great ice floes (mainly Multi-year ice) advected from the Arctic Ocean to Western Greenland (mainly driven by ocean currents)

The third category in Danish would be "Drivis", meaning all kinds of ice fragments drifting around, mainly driven by the wind.

You see: life is much simpler in Danish ;o)

[AnotherJourneybyTrain]

I met a Danish girl once...

[Jim Hunt]

I'm not quite sure what the relevance is, but one of my neighbours is a Danish woman. Now the possessor of recently acquired dual UK citizenship.

[Jim Hunt]

Arctic wide sea ice area is now lowest for the date in the high resolution AMSR2 record:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/06/facts-about-the-arctic-in-june-2019/#Jun-23

[AnotherJourneybyTrain]

...and I've never been the same since! (What happened,.. how long was I out for?!!?)

[Elisee Reclus]

"...so, I lit a fire, isn't it good, Norwegian wood?"

[Davidsteele9000]

Current condition of Nares Strait changes the meaning of "fast ice." It's moving fast alright:

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145232/ice-arch-crumbles-early

[Susan Anderson]

Chris Reynolds, Jim Hunt et al., great to see this activity here. I've been keeping up as best I can with ice information, have looked at some of your links, and plan to visit the rest. Thanks!

I can't help connecting the excessive flooding in our midwest (from Texas to Canada, which will affect crops and prices when the reckoning comes in) with all this melting, as well as GW/CC. Bad stuff!

[AnotherJourneybyTrain]

Who knows Susan, but I can tell you Western Australia has definitely linked their pattern of decreased rainfall in its southwest to climate change over 30 years of observation as certain!

[AnotherJourneybyTrain]

Apparently because the circumpolar current has tightened and the atmospheric currents reflect that...(So I have heard anyway!)

[AnotherJourneybyTrain]

PS: I don't know why that is bit I've heard it is factual!

[AnotherJourneybyTrain]

Try this:
https://www.irishnews.com/magazine/science/2019/06/26/news/scottish-scientists-discover-when-antarctic-current-first-began-1650418/