« PIOMAS May 2019 | Main | June 2019, one hell of a month »

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

D

FishOutofWater here -

Unfortunately, the volume anomaly in the Barents sea has started to melt out in Worldview images. Likewise, the Kara sea ice is rapidly melting and blowing out while winds are blowing Atlantic water into the southwestern side of the Kara sea.

AnotherJourneybyTrain

DMI temp has me very worried... that and the anomaly graphs: let alone what Neven just said!

Should I be freaking out about now or is everything fine?

Neven

Somewhere in between, AJbT. But hope for some weather that's good for the ice.

Robert S

All that open water from the Bering to the CAA, plus clear skies, will certainly mean a lot of heat going into the water at this time of year. We can watch for melt ponds above, but we really need better data on the "melt ponds below".

AnotherJourneybyTrain

Robert S, how does the untrained eyespot meltponds from above: can we see them on worldview?

Neven

Here are some of the strands of evidence, AJbT.

iceman

The last image is about the worst indicator I've seen for volume this season, especially with southerly winds near FJL for at least the next week.

wayne

Speaking 'bout images, 2019 is on a serious contention path to exceed 2012 super melt. As I wrote months ago, the dye was set during the winter just past:

https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/06/bye-bye-2012-record-course.html

I give 70% likelyhood of 2012 being beaten and a commercial shipping lane near the North Pole to happen.

Robert S

AJBT, I do image to image comparisons looking for colour change - generally gives a reasonable, if broad, indication.

AnotherJourneybyTrain

DMI Temp and the 1-day anomaly are extremely interesting today: I must say.

AnotherJourneybyTrain

Peterlvmeng, from the forum, did a sattelite comparison of the Laptev for the 11th of June between 2012 and 2019. ( https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.1700.html , reply #1741)

I thought it was interesting how some of the land features of snowless areas were the same... or even worse in 2012... perhaps meaning indicators on land can speak loudly!??!

Yes, but, the point- I suppose- was to try and illustrate the nature of 2019 so I would have to say the Laptev does look interesting. As for the forest fires question posed by Sambucca in the immediately previous post I would have to say: "Soot can cause temperature inversions!:

AnotherJourneybyTrain

I don't mean to be incredibly uncredible: but the slater 50 day forecast just took a mean looking dive today...

AnotherJourneybyTrain

DMI temp and the one day anomaly are still playing games... although it's only the Laptev part of things and the central basin seems fine.

AnotherJourneybyTrain

What happened to Greenland? How unusual is that temperature spike?

AnotherJourneybyTrain

Can anyone refute this, (please)?

    "Permafrost has begun thawing in the Canadian Arctic more than 70 years early because of climate change, according to new research.

    A "series of anomalously warm summers” has dramatically accelerated melting rates at three sites despite average annual ground temperatures remaining low. Ponds and hillocks have formed as a result.

    It had been thought that the permafrost - ground that remains frozen for at least two years - would remain until at least 2090.

    But the study found thawing levels were above 150 to 240 per cent above historic levels. "

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/climate-change-breakdown-arctic-frost-thawing-canada-environment-a8959056.html

The trouble I have is with the seemingly assumed knowledge of the third paragraph... Is that third paragraph anywhere near the truth or not?

AnotherJourneybyTrain

Greenland, Global Sea Ice and Total Precipitable Water look out of control. Luckily DMI Temp seems to have returned to normal (!??!)

AnotherJourneybyTrain

Worldview has a very interesting take on the Lincoln Sea/ Nares Strait debate ... (and personally I'm wondering if Greenland is still even there!!)

Gizmo

The area graph has shown a brief uptick. My take is that this is the ice breaking up and spreading out a bit, getting a few more pixels above the 15% threshold. Seems like we're witnessing the last ditch effort of the planet to cool its northern pole; switching from block ice to crushed.

AnotherJourneybyTrain

The Slater 50 day projection has taken a serious about turn: what would be in the heuristic that might be responsible for this action?

Chris Reynolds

Hi Neven (and others).

Hope you're all fine.

To my amazement it's been three years since I last blogged on sea ice. The wet June weather here in the UK has made me wonder about this subject and I found the same thing you noted, a monster high over the pack and Greenland. Should be an interesting summer.

It's been over four years since I put forward my Slow Transition argument. http://dosbat.blogspot.com/2015/05/the-slow-transition.html

I was curious, what are people's views on the future of the Arctic summer sea ice? Not whether we will see an ice free pack but when it's likely.

Neven

Hey Chris, good to hear from you!

It has been my wish to pick up blogging again for a while now, but circumstances simply don't allow it.

I've always thought that your Slow Transition theory made a lot of sense. But I think that a freak year with exceptional conditions can overcome it. I mean, just imagine, after the 2016/2017 winter - which was horrible for the ice (see the purple line on the first graph of this blog post) - the 2017 melting season would get confronted with this year's weather.

I mostly agree with the consensus opinion that the Arctic could go ice-free between 2030-2040, but I wouldn't be surprised if it happened earlier because of an extraordinary melting season.

P-maker

Hi Chris
Nice to see you back. Hope you have made a difference elsewhere over the past three years.

According to my memory, we still have some unfinished business regarding the sea ice extent in the Greenland Sea the year before the S.... hits the fan.

At the moment, we are at 550,000 km2 and rising. I was wondering if you could do your wonders, and provide a rough estimate of when we will hit 1 mio. Km2 in this particular part of the Nordic seas. That might be a good indicator of a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean.

Cheers P

Jim Hunt

Hi Chris,

Long time no see!

I referred to the "Slow Transition" not so very long ago over on the ASIF:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2709.msg201628.html#msg201628

Much discussion ensued!

AnotherJourneybyTrain

Neven, If the consensus(the forum consensus I presume you mean) is that the Arctic will go under 1,000 K by 2040 at the latest,... doesn't that mean the forum consensus thinks the Arctic will definitely go under 3,000 K by 2030 at the latest,.. IF NOT BEFORE 2030?

Jim Hunt

AJbT - I assume that Neven was referring to the "scientific" consensus?

Chris Reynolds

Hi Neven, P Maker, Jim,

Good too see some old names. I'll comment later today when I get the chance.

Neven, especially good to see you're still keeping this blog going.

P Maker. I've been on an odd journey intellectually over the last few years. Not involved in anything like climate change, but I always have mixed annoyance and pity (at their stupidity) for the climate change deniers (Donkeys!).

Jim, I'll read that thread and I'll make some time to try to catch up on this subject over the weekend. But it's been literally years since I maintained my code and datasets, so I won't have data to offer. Very out of date from that angle.

Now you all probably know more about sea ice than me.

Chris Reynolds

Jim,
Thanks for reminding me of the forum, just had an interesting read over there. PIOMAS 20C looks exciting, in netcdf files and I never got round to translating those into Excel VBA.

Programming in C++ now and dabbling in an increasingly serious manner with AI.

Jim Hunt

My pleasure Chris,

You may also wish to take a look at what A-Team is up to these days?

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2558.msg204548.html#msg204548

AnotherJourneybyTrain

So,Jim, surely that means the SCIENTIFIC concensus is that the Arctic sea ice will go below 3000 k by 2030 doesn't it?

Jim Hunt

AJbT - I suspect that Rear Admiral White may have revised his prediction somewhat by now, but back in 2013 the US NAVY consensus was 2023.

Listen to the first track carefully:

https://soundcloud.com/water-connects-us

By all means listen to the other tracks too!

AnotherJourneybyTrain

Cheers, Jim. Personally I'm not altogether sure we will see Arctic sea ice go below 3000 k in the next decade: to me that would be indeed truly a harbinger... I saw your graph on the North Eastern sea route ice and I'm still recovering.

AnotherJourneybyTrain

Oh, I also noted the 50 day forecast resumed a dive. Is it weird everyone seems to be talking about fast-ice?

P-maker

AJbT,

Fast ice refers to the old Danish expression: "Fastis" or literally sea ice fastened to or attached to the land.

This is opposed to the old Danish expression: "Storis", meaning great ice floes (mainly Multi-year ice) advected from the Arctic Ocean to Western Greenland (mainly driven by ocean currents)

The third category in Danish would be "Drivis", meaning all kinds of ice fragments drifting around, mainly driven by the wind.

You see: life is much simpler in Danish ;o)

AnotherJourneybyTrain

I met a Danish girl once...

Jim Hunt

I'm not quite sure what the relevance is, but one of my neighbours is a Danish woman. Now the possessor of recently acquired dual UK citizenship.

Jim Hunt

Arctic wide sea ice area is now lowest for the date in the high resolution AMSR2 record:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/06/facts-about-the-arctic-in-june-2019/#Jun-23

AnotherJourneybyTrain

...and I've never been the same since! (What happened,.. how long was I out for?!!?)

Elisee Reclus

"...so, I lit a fire, isn't it good, Norwegian wood?"

Davidsteele9000

Current condition of Nares Strait changes the meaning of "fast ice." It's moving fast alright:

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145232/ice-arch-crumbles-early

Susan Anderson

Chris Reynolds, Jim Hunt et al., great to see this activity here. I've been keeping up as best I can with ice information, have looked at some of your links, and plan to visit the rest. Thanks!

I can't help connecting the excessive flooding in our midwest (from Texas to Canada, which will affect crops and prices when the reckoning comes in) with all this melting, as well as GW/CC. Bad stuff!

AnotherJourneybyTrain

Who knows Susan, but I can tell you Western Australia has definitely linked their pattern of decreased rainfall in its southwest to climate change over 30 years of observation as certain!

AnotherJourneybyTrain

Apparently because the circumpolar current has tightened and the atmospheric currents reflect that...(So I have heard anyway!)

AnotherJourneybyTrain

PS: I don't know why that is bit I've heard it is factual!

AnotherJourneybyTrain

Try this:
https://www.irishnews.com/magazine/science/2019/06/26/news/scottish-scientists-discover-when-antarctic-current-first-began-1650418/

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Your Information

(Name is required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)