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Neven

Please note, when you click that last link, the irony of a guy melting ice with a gas burner. ;-)

The more jokes I make, the more depressed I am.

Tim

And the first week of July has moved 2019 to the lowest (IJIS) extent ever for this date.

EastTXAlarmist

Keep this type of exposure up and Trump is going to censor your posts sir.

Neven

I'm not sure. I've heard Trump is a big Céline Dijon fan.

Andy Lee Robinson

Great analysis Neven, it certainly looks like a new record is possible this year.
I posted a tweet linking to this, please feel free to retweet to get some eyeballs here!

#Arctic Death Spiral - Jun 2019 average vol: 15,803 km³. Large drop in volume since previous month. Nearly half of what it was in 1979. June 30th shows new record low for date. "This is getting serious". Analysis: https://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2019/07/piomas-july-2019.html
https://twitter.com/ahaveland/status/1148594186851106817

Rgatess

As we compare 2012 and 2019 the conversation really ought to come down to the much beloved Great Arctic Cyclone of August 2012. (I actually named this storm while it was still raging some of you may recall). While of course we all know the cyclone did not “cause” the record low that year, it did clearly push the already rotten and fractured ice to that record. I’m looking at the neck and neck foot race between to two years and seeing GAC 2012 as the difference maker right now. Early August will be the time to watch as we see essentially parallel declines until then.

Glenn Doty

But it isn't neck and neck.

I just looked at the daily data... If you compare the last 7 days of data available (as of this posting), you see the following:

2019, day 174, 13,890 km3
2019, day 181, 12,047 km3.
2019 7 day melt estimate: 1,843 km3

2012, day 174, 13,897 km3,
2012, day 181, 12,295 km3,
2012 7 day melt estimate: 1,602 km3.

2019 has seen a rate of ~34.4 km3/day faster melt-off than that seen in 2012 over the past week. That's not neck-and-neck... that's pacing 15% faster melt rate.

AnotherJourneybyTrain

The albedo graph(ic)s show it's not neck and neck either, with 2012 having a massive advantage in terms of rate-of-change-of-albedo: THAT IS SOMETHING THAT DEMANDS AN EXPLANATION if you/anyone of us want/s to entertain comparisons,... IMHO!

AnotherJourneybyTrain

Neven, on the forums SEPTEMBER CHALLENGES thread, is predicting an Artic Sea Ice Minimum of no less/(or less, lol) than second place for NSIDC... (I won't even venture to remind myself of what he, ..um.., ventured for JAXA!!!!!!!)

Why?

How much trouble is this world in and do we have the right to call it now?

Tim

Has someone hacked the Bremen ice sea ice site? I'm getting warnings that might indicate that has happened.

Neven

I'm not predicting, it's a gamble (albeit with a basis: melting momentum).

wndchaser

@ Rgatess...
Years ago I dubbed the phenomenon of the mechanical destruction of sea ice by storm winds as "The Belmont Lake Effect". Here's the post as a reminder to folks. Should we get another GAC this year, I suspect TBLE will come into play.

"The Origin of TBLE: It was a mid-spring day and the ice on Belmont Lake was rotten but still covering the entire lake save for plenty of room along the shoreline for a row boat. Dad wanted to go fishing in the worst way. Well, to make a long story short, the wind kicked up, started to push the ice around and within 20 minutes we witnessed 2 miles of 6" thick rotten ice get smashed to oblivion. It was literally all gone when it piled up on the far end of the lake. Obviously the Arctic is just a wee bit larger than a several hundred acre lake ... but the PROCESS has to be the same. Mechanical destruction & dispersal after a major weakening spells "doomed" in my estimation. Sure, the scale is different but both RC airplanes & jumbo jets fly because of the same principles. My 2¢ and I'm sticking to it."

It's getting serious for sure. Pass the mustard please. Thanks Neven for all you do. Back to lurking and learning.

Sam

Neven,

That looks like a pretty safe gamble. With the coming weather things may get exciting for ice watchers. NSIDC Sidads showing drops over the last few day, since July 5 of:

191k
159k
201k
247k

That is a stunning 798k in 4 days. The bottom is pretty much falling out of the ice numbers at the moment.

Sam

Doc Snow

JAXA gives 2019 a 'lead' of ~160k, as of 7/9. Wow!

Robert S

There's a part of me that is ready (and even hoping) for the kind of outcome that we may be seeing this year. It's looking pretty unequivocal, in terms of the impact of increased CO2 levels. But a ringside seat at the end of the world only gives you a better view...

AnotherJourneybyTrain

Sam, are you talking about a four day average of close to a double century drop?

Sam

Yes. Followed now by a century drop.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/N_seaice_extent_daily_v3.0.csv
‼️

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