PIOMAS November 2019

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

During October there was a slowdown in ice growth, which is also reflected in the PIOMAS numbers. 2019 was the third year since 2007 to record a volume increase under 2000 km3. Given that 2016 increased even more slowly, it has overtaken 2019, which is now third lowest on record. But as can be seen on the graph above, the difference with 2012 (99 km3) and 2016 (31 km3) is negligible.

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

If you carefully observe the 2019 trend line on Wipneus' version of the PIOMAS graph, you'll see that it would have been lowest, had it not shot up during the last week of October (more on that below):

The anomaly trend line on the PIOMAS volume anomaly graph is still in negative territory:

As for average thickness, the 2019 trend line on the PIJAMAS graph has taken a massive drop, almost as spectacular as the 2012 trend line (light blue). This makes sense, as both years had a lot of open water to be covered with thin ice. It takes a while for that ice to thicken, so if you divide volume by extent to crudely calculate average thickness, the numbers will decrease:The same effect can be seen, more or less, on the Polar Science Centre average thickness graph:

So, what can we expect for next month's update? Extent has been going up fast since that last week of October and is now slightly above 2012, but well above crazy 2016: Nevertheless, the configurations for these three years is vastly different, as can be seen on the comparison of Uni Bremen sea ice concentration maps below (which you can find here). Whereas 2016 and especially 2012 have most of their open water on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, 2019 will have to do most of its upcoming expansion on the Pacific side of the Arctic:

The speed of this expansion will depend on sea surface temperatures and weather, and this in turn will determine whether 2019 can creep any closer to 2016, both on the extent and volume graphs.

In the meantime, the Arctic north of 70N has recorded its 7th top-3 highest temperature on record in a row, extending the unprecedented run:

Surely, it will end there? We'll know next month.

Comments

[Robert S]

The North Pacific "Blob" of positive temperature anomaly seems to be becoming a near permanent feature. Depending on the rate of flow into the arctic at any given time, delayed freeze or accelerated melt is not surprising.

[AnotherJourneybyTrain]

Any truth to this:

Science Newsfrom research organizations Melting Arctic sea ice linked to emergence of deadly virus in marine mammals Loss of ice opens pathways for disease transmission among sea lions, ice seals, sea otters and others Date: November 7, 2019 Source: University of California - Davis Summary: Scientists have linked the decline in Arctic sea ice to the emergence of a deadly virus that could threaten marine mammals in the North Pacific, according to a study.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/11/191107112926.htm

(It was in Nevens Artic Sea Ice News)

??

[wayne]

There are lots of unusual gyrations from vortices within the struggling mangled Polar Vortex this fall:

https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/11/stretched-out-warmed-polar-vortex.html

https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/11/arctic-resurrection-lows-passing-baffin.html

A massive cloud clearing usually happens from Mid-October, not this autumn

https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/11/november-clearance-not-sale-of-arctic.html

Finally I have a bone to pick with Canadian professor out of his depth thanks to the fame he somehow acquired by battling the rights transvestites (sounds funny but is no joke).

However this is an excellent opportunity to reintroduce basic sun energy facts and to warn others, who one day will have fame, not to let it go to their heads:

https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/11/a-little-word-on-solar-panels-not-quite.html

Also a little word of praise to those like Neven with solar panels on their rooftops. They work even in Canada! I am so proud to say.

[wayne]

rights of ...... opps :) is good to be back

[Kevin McKinney]

Just checking back in to see how things are evolving... and the answer is, they look pretty bad. Not shockingly, news-makingly bad, perhaps, but an SIE that's nearly as low as the 2016 record for time of year certainly doesn't suggest that anything good is happening.

:-(

[wayne]

Hi Kevin

The recent less Dissolved Oxygen in ocean bad news, top with increased ocean acidity, on top of other ongoing climate related disasters makes those who still insist that all is well with polluting, 'business as usual is great', makes them look like the most delusional people in history. Sort like just prior the end of the Roman empire, Romans praising the barbarian hordes as peace loving reformers without a bone of vengeance in their bodies.

https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/12/significant-additional-cooling-after.html

Ever felt a big chill right after a snow storm?? It isn't just the cold air causing it. Snow sublimation contributes to the cooling. It is sort of a cruel irony that people will tend to feel much colder after more frequent such storms because of the type of warmer snowflakes just fallen. It will not help to sway the fake skeptics about the origins of Global Warming one little bit....

[Robert S]

Wayne: Just a slightly off-topic note regarding solar panels. While it's true that they work, it's also true that they have significant emissions associated with their manufacture. In low emission grid settings (British Columbia, for instance), installing solar panels actually increases emissions, since the atmospheric carbon payback time exceeds the life of the panels.

[wayne]

Hi Robert

Not if they are made with solar or wind power... :)

[wayne]

Oh in BC you can easily have 2 close to each other lakes, one sufficiently higher than the other for hydro power. So connect them with water pipeline , nothing new, in Roman times they were aqueducts. These 2 lakes may create a perpetually clean battery, with solar and wind power pumping water up, and B.C. hydro extracting steady power 24 hours a day with water coming down, a nearly forever energy loop. The lakes don't have to be huge, may be artificial, but eco friendly. We have had this solution since just after Nikola Tesla walked around Niagara Falls in the early 1900's. What are we waiting for?

[michael sweet]

Robert S.
Can you provide a reference to support your claim that solar panels do not return enough electricity to pay back manufacture in some grid conditions.

It strikes me that if less power is drawn from the grid they will shut down the gas powered generators. They will keep generating hydro but can sell it to the Americans. According to that logic, until the grid is fully renewable adding solar will decrease emissions. And even then more solar means more hydro exported to displace fossil fuels in America.

Solar panels anywhere generate electricity that displaces fossil fuel somewhere.

[wayne]

The following article outlines the coming winter outlook for the Northern Hemisphere, it will be laced with rock and roll extreme warm/bottom freezing cold rogue vortices:

https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/12/warming-polar-vortex-makes-its-internal.html

Amongst other geophysics, it also explains that 2007 and 2012 were great melt years by La-Nina's as opposed to 2016 and 19 El-Ninos. Far less clouds during Arctic summers can wipe out nearly all existing Arctic sea ice, especially in current sea ice precarious health, luckily, it seems La-Nina's have not rebounded likewise to post 1998, ironies never stop until the days all good chances run out.