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Robert S

Given the amount of energy still in the system, and the overall temperature pattern, I find that result from PIOMAS a bit odd. Has anyone identified what core variables in the model driven that result?

wayne

Hi Robert,

Being a staunch critic of PIOMAS at times, I can say it right so far this winter.
There was a lot of open water at minima 2019, this created by-Polar Cold Temperature North Poles , extreme cold vortices hovering above each Northern continents. Being as such a CTNP may bring up warmth on one side of it, but cold much dryer air towards the Arctic ocean on the other, which has occurred for about a month or so. This years circulation by CTNP's positioning has rapidly covered the vast open water areas dramatically increasing ice volume particularly on the Pacific sector of the Pole.

If you want to literally see a recent strong CTNP (a non rogue vortice) in action watch this:

http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/12/pacific-air-meets-atlantic-cloudsover.html

It does not mean the coming ice age, but the coming -way to the South-smaller but extremely cold rogue vortices, Southern people will be feeing like the coming ice age in populated areas, sort triggering brilliant people like President Trump to comment to millions about superbly ignorant climatology. All while forgetting how much warmer the overall winter has become, as they are fond in saying "in your neck of the woods" .

wayne

And so we now see what happens when the Arctic circulation pattern becomes freakish, record warming in many places of the world, a none white Christmas, with no immediate cooling in sight. How did this happen:

https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/12/christmas-2019-polar-vortex-shrinkage.html

Look no further but in the Arctic, where record thin or no sea ice played and will play a role. The roller coaster temperature not-so-merry-go-round exists, not in Western Europe and North America at present, but does elsewhere. I guess I can tease the fake anti science sceptic's now; the calendar is not wrong, is warm hey?

Try to remember if you can?

wayne

A record shattering Cold Temperature North Pole vortice exists over Ellesmere Island at present. This is extremely interesting, remember the film "Day after Tomorrow" , it portrayed something similar, but very badly maimed the meteorology. A Cold center can usually thrive when weather is stable, the stability here is from enhanced Anthropogenic Warming. There was another failed theory, the "Iris Effect", by professor Lindzen at MIT. This theory called for heat to escape to space when Earth got too warm.

https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2020/01/coldest-new-years-eve-cold-temperature.html

The problem with the Iris effect theory, in terms in what is happening now, is the real current Iris is way too small, swallowed by a sea of warming. Thinner sea ice has also played a role here, it shifted the CTNP back Eastwards over the Archipelago, much apt to deep freeze easily.

Jim Hunt

As anticipation builds for the next monthly release of PIOMAS data here are my own thoughts on the current state of Arctic sea ice thickness and hence volume:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/01/wheres-the-thickest-arctic-sea-ice-gone

Over the winter of 2018/19 ASCAT revealed that there was a relentless movement of multi-year ice towards both the North Atlantic and the Beaufort Sea. Perhaps a significant amount of the multi-year ice that survived the winter of 2018/19 has now simply melted away in warm water, to be replaced by much less robust first year ice in the area between the North Pole and the Siberian coast?"

Also Stefan Hendricks from AWI has been aiding the further development of a "citizen science" flavour of a "Near Real Time" Arctic sea ice volume metric:

https://twitter.com/sthendric/status/1222470887364091905

Thanks very much Stefan!

AnotherJourneybyTrain

Hey, Jimbo: how are ya? The temps from dmi don't look too bad but we're all still extremely interested.

I hope X-mas and New Years was as good for you as it was for me.

Jim Hunt

Hi AJbT,

I doubt that! My better half and I were confined to bed with "the flu" over Xmas. We had emerged by New Year's Eve, but didn't feel up to attending the village knees up next door.

I'm still coughing and spluttering somewhat, but I'm ensconced back at my keyboard just in time to reenter the Climateball™ arena at an opportune moment:

https://twitter.com/njbtweet/status/1222660599475138560

As for Arctic temperatures, scroll up to read Wayne's report and/or wait and see what Judah Cohen makes of this:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1222666724669100036

I'm going back to bed now (UTC)!

wayne

Well Jim,

As the Polar vortex shrinks in extent, there has been quite exciting
action:

https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2020/02/spectacular-surface-cyclone-with-no.html

Sure to fool the run of a mill fake skeptic, but otherwise I continue to observe unusual weather patterns, counterintuitive, deeply cold, mainly smaller zones, the biggest feature of this winter was Alaska being the good old cold Alaska. But this may mean a consolidation of the Polar Vortex into a more compact area, expressed in no better way than more sea ice extent with respect to recent previous years......

C0oLc0lD

Inspired by the chart in this blog post: https://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/05/piomas-april-2011.html

I made an update version of this, because I was curious whether the trend got verified or not:
https://i.imgur.com/PV6Xadw.png

Well, as it shows the trends aren't as dramatic now. Seems like, because the dataset isn't really big, the 3 full years in a row (2010, 2011, 2012) underperformed strongly and had a big impact on the polynom trendline. Now, with more data available, it looks more like a variation. However, the days until we see an ice free month are counting. It's only a bit later now.

Jim Hunt

The PIOMAS numbers for January have been released, including the gridded thickness maps from the wondrous Wipneus:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/01/wheres-the-thickest-arctic-sea-ice-gone/#Feb-04

Thus far this winter the polar vortex has been remarkably well behaved. By and large cold air air has stayed in the Arctic. There hasn’t been much in the way of cold air intrusions into mid latitudes or warm air intrusions into the Arctic.

Hence it’s not at all surprising that the thickness of sea ice in the Arctic has been increasing slightly more quickly this winter than in other recent years.

wayne

"There hasn’t been much in the way of cold air intrusions into mid latitudes or warm air intrusions into the Arctic."

Hear hear Jim

That is because the Polar Vortex was an is smaller, not only because sea ice over all morphology is mainly thinner, but all oceans sst's , except the Pacific equator being particularly warmer. But 2019-20 winter keeps on distancing itself from preceding 8 or 9 winters. In terms of circulation:

http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2020/02/now-that-is-strange-really-
different.html

With unfamiliar circulation features , quite uncommon. The coming melt season will be exceedingly interesting.

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