Arctic Sea Ice

ASI 2013 update 8: the end is nigh

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has a good explanation of sea ice extent and area in their FAQ). I also look at other things like regional sea ice area, compactness, temperature and weather forecasts, anything of particular interest.

The animation on the right consists of NSIDC
sea ice concentration maps, one for each ASI update.

Check out the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website (ASIG)
for daily updated graphs, maps, live webcam images and
the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (ASIF) for detailed discussions.

September 2nd 2013

We have almost reached the end of the 2013 melting season, perhaps even earlier than in the last couple of years. After months of predominantly cyclonic weather - that has pushed the ice pack apart, but at the same time preserved a lot of the first-year ice - there are large patches with low sea ice concentrations within the ice pack (also see this recent blog post). Here's an animation of images provided by Wipneus, based on Uni Hamburg data, showing what has happened from August 28th to 31st:

There's some compaction going on, but the open water within the ice pack is easier to freeze and ice floes get re-connected to each other. This will slow down whatever melt, compaction and transport there is left, or even supersede it and thus effectively end the melting season.

Of course, it all depends on the exact weather conditions (more on that later this week), and we have to keep in mind that a significant part of the ice pack is very fragile. In fact, a third of the ice pack that was almost cut off from the main ice pack north of Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago, would have probably melted out if weather conditions hadn't been the exact opposite from previous melting seasons. More on that later as well.

Let's first have that overview of the current situation.

ASI 2013 update 7: cold and cloudy

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has a good explanation of sea ice extent and area in their FAQ). I also look at other things like regional sea ice area, compactness, temperature and weather forecasts, anything of particular interest.

The animation on the right consists of NSIDC
sea ice concentration maps, one for each ASI update.

Check out the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website (ASIG)
for daily updated graphs, maps, live webcam images and
the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (ASIF) for detailed discussions.

August 18th 2013

In the past two weeks sea ice decrease has been chugging along happily, with that huge area of low concentration ice still staring us in the face. All melting season long I've been expecting massive losses after the cyclones did their churning act on the large patches of first year ice, but they have failed to materialize. The loss is there, but it isn't massive.

Apparently the cold and cloudy conditions the cyclones brought in from May onwards, have been enough to compensate for the churning of the ice pack, that was never really preconditioned by a sunny start to the melting season. And so 2013 has remained part of the group of slow years and didn't come any closer to the group of record years.

This melting season has been a great and humbling teacher so far, but there's still a couple of weeks left.

Sea ice area (SIA)

I've been waiting all day for the Cryosphere Today SIA data to be updated, but as none are forthcoming, I post the graph with data up to August 15th:

ASI 2013 update 6: major slowdown

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has a good explanation of sea ice extent and area in their FAQ). I also look at other things like regional sea ice area, compactness, temperature and weather forecasts, anything of particular interest.

The animation on the right consists of NSIDC
sea ice concentration maps, one for each ASI update.

Check out the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website (ASIG)
for daily updated graphs, maps, live webcam images and
the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (ASIF) for detailed discussions.

August 4th 2013

"As the weather is switching again, things will probably slow down." That's what I wrote two weeks ago for the conclusion of ASI 2013 update 5, and never has a greater understatement been made. At least not on this blog.

The weather did switch from an ideal set-up for ice decrease (causing one of the most rapid decreases on record) to a situation that is next best for ice decrease, with a fierce, but short storm at its heart, finally followed by the neither-fish-nor-flesh set-up where weather is fickle in the Arctic and never really settles on a stable pattern that can deepen to one of the other two states.

This almost always slows down ice decrease, and I say 'almost' because last year it didn't. Frankly, I was expecting it wouldn't have as much of an impact as it did in the past two weeks, because we started the year out with a record amount of first-year ice. And despite (or because of) the slow start to the melting season the melting potential is huge.

But huge or no huge, the impact of the weather has been huge as well. In fact, it's so big that I'm starting to doubt my eyes.

Sea ice area (SIA)

I don't know what is going on over at Cryosphere Today, but the melting has come to a complete standstill. In the past 10 days the ice pack has not lost, but gained 20K km2! That's so crazy for this phase of the melting season that I barely have words for it. It's unique as far as the record goes.

Here are the graphs for this month and the previous one:

ASI 2013 update 5: cyclone time again

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has a good explanation of sea ice extent and area in their FAQ). I also look at other things like regional sea ice area, compactness, temperature and weather forecasts, anything of particular interest.

The animation on the right consists of NSIDC
sea ice concentration maps, one for each ASI update.

Check out the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website (ASIG)
for daily updated graphs, maps, live webcam images and
the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (ASIF) for detailed discussions.

July 21st 2013

Due to technical problems, a video will be posted later today or tomorrow.

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Two weeks ago I said: Bye bye, Beaufort. But the ice in the Beaufort didn't really wave back. It retreated somewhat, but much less than I expected after a full week of ideal conditions. At the end of winter the ice was supposed to be thinner there than last year (when it retreated at an amazing pace) and it currently looks extremely mushy out there, individual floes can hardly be made out. But somehow the ice pack is standing its ground in that part of the Arctic.

Nevertheless, with all the easy ice melting out elsewhere, trend lines on extent and area graphs plummeted, and 2013 slashed some of the difference with previous record years 2007, 2011 and 2012. However, with most of the easy ice now gone and ideal conditions fading out in the past couple of days, things have started to slow down.

There's still a lot of melting potential around (and within) the pack, and with a potentially big cyclone forecasted to form in a couple of days, there's no telling what can happen.

Sea ice area (SIA)

Cryosphere Today has had several big melting periods this month (13 century breaks in 19 days), albeit interspersed with some slow days, and so a very high rate of daily decrease (only 2009 comes close) has brought 2013 real close to 2007 and 2011, and the difference with 2012 has been reduced further to a little over 500K.

Here's the graph based on the latest data:

ASI 2013 update 4: bye bye, Beaufort

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has a good explanation of sea ice extent and area in their FAQ). I also look at other things like regional sea ice area, compactness, temperature and weather forecasts, anything of particular interest.

The animation on the right consists of NSIDC
sea ice concentration maps, one for each ASI update.

Check out the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website (ASIG)
for daily updated graphs, maps, live webcam images and
the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (ASIF) for detailed discussions.

July 8th 2013

Here's another rehearsal for when I grow up and make good videos with a title roll and background music and everything. By the way, I make a big mistake as I go along. Can you hear what it is?

This update should actually be called 'Bye bye, Beaufort and Chukchi', but it doesn't sound as good. As announced in the previous ASI update the trend lines on various graphs have started to drop precipitously, with thin ice on the fringes (Hudson, Baffin, Kara) disappearing fast.

Despite a slow start unlike any other in recent years, which I described in this recent blog post, 2013 is still hanging in there, slowly leaving the less aggressive melting seasons behind and moving towards the record years of 2007, 2011 and 2012.

The question now is how things will proceed, as the amount of easy-to-melt ice is starting to run out. Even though this year's ice pack consists of a record amount of first-year ice, the weather still plays an important role. The interesting thing about last year's melting season was that decrease rates slowed down somewhat when the weather turned bad in July, but didn't stall, like they did in previous years under similar circumstances.

I think the same will go for this year as well, also because area/extent numbers are quite bit higher, and thus still a lot of melting potential. But there's no telling what could happen if the weather is very conducive to melting/compacting/transport for a week or two, and it looks like we're having some of that up ahead.

Sea ice area (SIA)

July is a month where trend lines on the Cryosphere Today sea ice area graph get divided in the two camps of winners and losers, with 2010 moving from one to the other. Because of steady, substantial drops since the last week of June the 2013 trend line has slowly started to move from one camp to the other.

Here's the graph based on the latest data:

ASI 2013 update 3: the Arctic goes POP

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has a good explanation of sea ice extent and area in their FAQ). I also look at other things like regional sea ice area, compactness, temperature and weather forecasts, anything of particular interest.

The animation on the right consists of NSIDC
sea ice concentration maps, one for each ASI update.

Check out the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website (ASIG)
for daily updated graphs, maps, live webcam images and
the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (ASIF) for detailed discussions.

June 21st 2013

Happy June Solstice!

With the fading of the persistent cyclone (PAC-2013) that held the Arctic in its grip for several weeks, the slow start of the melting is now definitely behind us. The cold has almost dissipated and massive heat waves in Alaska and Siberia spell trouble for the ice that is still clinging to respective coasts. The melting is shifting gears as we speak.

But 2013 is still trailing most of the other years, and especially 2012 that put on quite a show last year around this time. Whether 2013 can make up the deficit in weeks to come, depends as always on the weather, but also on the postponed effects PAC-2013 might have had on the ice pack, especially in its centre. There are large zones that look particularly weak, full of small ice floes, but it's not entirely sure what will happen, and more importantly, when it will happen.

Sea ice area (SIA)

The 2013 trend line (based on Cryosphere Today sea ice area data) was about to reach a cluster of years following a series of five century breaks in a row, but an uptick reported today threw a spanner in the works.

Here's the graph based on the latest data:

ASI 2013 update 2: shaken and stirred

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has a good explanation of sea ice extent and area in their FAQ). I also look at other things like regional sea ice area, compactness, temperature and weather forecasts, anything of particular interest.

Check out the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website (ASIG)
for daily updated graphs, maps, live webcam images and
the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (ASIF) for detailed discussions.

June 8th 2013

What the heck, I'm giving it another try (practice makes perfect):

The slow start I reported on in the previous update has continued, but as always in the Arctic there is more than meets the sensor. The slowness shows itself mostly in the area and extent numbers (changing as we speak), and the main culprit is that cyclone that refuses to go away.

I initially said this would be a relatively small cyclone, and even called it the Small Arctic Cyclone of 2013 in one of the two posts I devoted to it since the last ASI update, as a tongue-in-cheek reference to the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012 (GAC-2012). But you know what? It ain't that small, and what's even more interesting: it just won't go away.

For over two weeks now it's been keeping things colder and cloudier over the central Arctic, but at the same time it's been shaking and stirring the ice, wherever it passes. Not to the point that it makes the ice disappear - this isn't August, most of the ice is still thick enough -, but it is showing how mobile the ice is, ripping holes in the ice pack that close up again once the storm has passed. It reminds me a bit of the 2010 melting season, when large regions with holes showed up in the middle of the ice pack.

So this cyclone is the big news of the melting season so far. Here's the rest.

Sea ice area (SIA)

Cryosphere Today sea ice area data had the trend line of 2013 way above all the others at the end of the month, but it seems that the limit has been reached. After a century break a couple of days ago a very big drop of almost 250K was reported today for June the 6th.

Here's the graph based on the latest data:

ASI 2013 update 1: a slow start

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has a good explanation of sea ice extent and area in their FAQ). I also look at other things like regional sea ice area, compactness, temperature and weather forecasts, anything of particular interest.

Check out the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website (ASIG)
for daily updated graphs, maps, live webcam images and
the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (ASIF) for detailed discussions.

May 26th 2013

This is a slow start in two ways.

I wanted to begin posting ASI updates a couple of weeks earlier, but had the idea to try and make video versions of them to save time, as it took me an average 3-4 hours last year to write an update (gazing at graphs and satellite images not included). But I've never made videos before, and it takes me a while to get over the psychological barrier to do new things. So after fiddling with settings for a while and trying stuff out, I realized a couple of things, leading to this video:

Luckily, my slow start wasn't a problem, as the Arctic melting season has a slow start itself, just like last year. At least, when it comes to area and extent numbers.

We know, based on the latest PIOMAS update and the 2012/2013 Winter Analysis I did a couple of weeks back, that 2013 so far looks pretty similar to 2012, except perhaps for the initial configuration, with thicker ice on the Siberian side of the Arctic instead of in the Beaufort Sea.

I can repeat one part of the Winter Analysis, as my opinion hasn't changed:

Despite a couple of differences, this melting season looks similar to last year's melting season and so it will probably beat the 2007 records. Whether it will also beat last year's records is too early to tell, as weather is still an important factor. We used to see rebounds in the Arctic whenever a record low was hit (also known as 'recovery! recovery!' on fake skeptic blogs), but I'm not sure how bouncy the Arctic is anymore.

The start is slow, just like last year. The why and whereto is explained below.