Arctic Sea Ice

PIOMAS December 2018

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

November has been an excellent month for Arctic sea ice. With 4226 km3, it recorded the highest volume increase for November in the 2007-2018 period, well above the average of 3491 km3. The reasons for this are obvious: rapid growth in ice extent and relatively low temperatures (more on that below). This means that 2018 has dropped from 4th lowest to 6th lowest, and the gap with leader 2016 has grown by a whopping 1322 km3!

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

Because all the trend lines go up fast around this time of year, I'm posting another Wipneus graph that visualises PIOMAS volume anomaly, showing 2018's massive increase more clearly:

PIOMAS November 2018

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

October has seen a continuation of the trend that set in right after the September minimum (see last month's update), where 2018 went from 6th lowest at the minimum to 5th lowest at the end of the September, and now it's 4th at the end of October, practically on a par with 2011. The increase of 2115 km3, well below the 2367 km3 average, was actually 3rd lowest in the 2007-2018 record, with only 2007 and 2016 having an even lower increase (1637 and 1648 km3 respectively). That means that 2018 has crept closer to the years below it, and moved away further from the years above it, overtaking 2017 for the first time this year.

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

Wipneus' version of the PIOMAS graph shows how this year's trend line blocks out that of 2011, that's how close together they have been for a couple of weeks now:

PIOMAS December 2017

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

A month of somewhat slowing extent increases has been reflected in the PIOMAS sea ice volume model output. Total volume growth during November 2017 was third lowest for the past decade. 2017 dips below 2011, thus regaining third position again. The difference with number two, 2012, is reduced from 1210 to 733 km3, whereas the gap with crazy winter year 2016 grew some more, from 1142 to 1482 km3.

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

Wipneus' version of the PIOMAS graph shows more clearly how 2017 has moved into third position:

PIOMAS November 2017

Another late update. Apologies. It must be because winter is a-coming.

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Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

The October sea ice volume increase of 2592 km3, according to the PIOMAS model, was pretty much run of the mill. However, two years in the past decade do not fit that bill/mill, as they showed very muted growth during October: 2007 (1637 km3) and, of course, last year with 1648 km3 (things would get even crazier during November). 2017 is still fourth lowest on record, but the difference with 2012, 2016 and 2011 has grown and 2017 is now practically on a par with 2010.

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

And here's Wipneus' version of the PIOMAS graph (including 2007):

PIOMAS March 2017

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

There haven't been any major changes compared to last month, and that's good, because it means things haven't gotten worse (according to PIOMAS). February 2017 saw an increase that was almost identical to the average for the last 10 years. Nevertheless, the difference with number 2, has increased from 1776 to 1851 km3. At the same time the difference with last year (now third in the ranking) has been reduced considerably, from 2374 to 1975 km3.

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

And here's Wipneus' version, showing the gap is still intact, but hasn't become larger:

PIOMAS February 2017

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

Things just keep getting worse. After this year's trend line went well below all others last month, I was hoping January would bring some relief, some cold weather. The weather was cold, colder than November and December, but evidently not cold enough for some seriously anomalous ice accretion. And so the gap has widened.

According to the PIOMAS model, in the past 10 years, only twice before was there a January in which less than 3000 km3 of volume was added to the sea ice pack: in 2007 and last year. So, these are the only two years that didn't see the gap get wider. All the other years did.

2017 is currently 1571 km3 below the previous record lowest number for January 31st, which occurred in 2013 (the year following record smashing 2012). That's almost 10% lower.

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

 And here's Wipneus' version, clearly showing the gap widening: