Arctic Sea Ice

Mad Max 2: The Arctic Warrior

I started writing this blog post almost two weeks ago, initially wanting to call it Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome, as a logical follow-up to the event that I described as Mad Max last year. Max refers to the maximum Arctic sea ice cover that is usually reached around this time. It's Mad when the record gets smashed to bits. And it's Beyond Thunderdome when it gets smashed to bits after it got smashed to bits last year.

The thing is that a max record is only smashed to bits in one of the two daily updated datasets I follow with spreadsheets. Hence my retreat to the title of the first Mad Max sequel (hat-tip to commenter Taras Zelenchuk). Mind you, I'm not calling the max, as preliminary peaks may still be topped in the next week or two. However, it will take some extreme weather conditions for Cryosphere Today sea ice area to go up 400K and surpass the 2011 record:So, barring some extremely cold and windy weather, it looks highly likely that the CT SIA lowest maximum record has been broken, and if the preliminary peak of 12.843 million km2 remains standing, it will be the 2nd earliest max in the 2006-2016 period as well (together with 2007). Last year the max was reached at the astonishingly early date of February 16th, but it was still 130K higher than the 2011 record low max.

When it comes to JAXA sea ice extent (formerly known as IJIS SIE, but now provided by ADS-NIPR), 2015 was both the earliest and lowest on record by far, the first max to stay under 14 million km2. This year's preliminary peak, reached on February 29th, has so far stayed below 14 million km2 too, but is just 16K higher than last year's record, a statistical tie (and still a whopping 170K below the next lowest max from 2011). JAXA SIE has dropped 166K since the preliminary peak was reached, still in second place behind 2015:

A difference in nonsense

There isn't all that much fake skeptic nonsense going round when it comes to Arctic sea ice. Climate risk deniers rather just ignore the geologic time scale event going on up North that could lead to an ice-free Arctic Ocean within one human lifetime. Still, every now and then an effort is made to trivialize Arctic sea ice loss. In this case it is done by averaging all daily sea ice extent numbers over the course of a year, and then claiming that Arctic sea ice is recovering.

The source of the claim is this graph based on MASIE data, which is the subject of this blog post. I'll get to that later, but here's the 'recovery' graph:

I'm not even going to link to the blog in question, because it's full of misleading and embarrassing statements by an older gentleman whose mind has obviously been set in concrete a while ago, and this particular nonsense has been taken apart by Tamino back in September. Of course this hasn't discouraged the blogger in question to stop misleading his readers, and his latest production of the useless annual average nonsense* has, again, been taken up by the free market fundamentalist ex-banker hobby organization known as the (no) Global Warming Policy Foundation.

All of this wasn't all that interesting to me until I compared the 'recovery' graph with an annual average graph based on JAXA sea ice extent data (found here):Here the trend line goes down instead of up, 2012 is lower than 2007, and 2015 has the 4th lowest annual average instead of 6th. That's quite a difference. What could be causing it?

Now, the MASIE FAQ page has this:

ASI 2015 update 7: to compact or not to compact

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2014 period (NSIDC has a good explanation of sea ice extent and area in their FAQ). I also look at other things like regional sea ice area, compactness, temperature and weather forecasts, anything of particular interest.

The animation on the right consists of NSIDC
sea ice concentration maps, one for each ASI update.

Check out the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website (ASIG)
for daily updated graphs, maps, live webcam images and
the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (ASIF) for detailed discussions.

September 1st 2015

Look at the sea ice concentration animation at the top right. Notice how the final frame suddenly is whiter than the preceding frame? That's a sign that we have entered the final phase of the melting season, when temperatures drop and melt ponds within the ice pack freeze over again. Sea ice concentration goes up, and the NSIDC SIC map becomes whiter.

But the Pacific side of the Arctic is still bluish. During the past two weeks the disintegration of that part of the ice pack has continued, spurred on by a late cyclone that further stressed the region (see special blog post on the matter) and increased the area that consists of a mix of ice floes and open water. The compaction potential of this region will probably decide where this melting season will end up on the various sea ice area and extent graphs.

And this end result still holds interest, because - somewhat surprisingly - the 2015 melting season could still achieve a top 3 minimum. Surprising, because the melting season started out with more volume, more multi-year ice, saw little and late preconditioning during May and June, and - despite a killer July - there has been relatively little transport and compaction this year.

With melting momentum mostly out of the picture now, it all comes down to compaction.

Sea ice area (SIA)

Here's the latest Cryosphere Today SIA chart, to which I've added preliminary data as calculated by Wipneus:

Arm's race (and a storm)

As I write this, a storm is battering the ice pack on the Pacific side of the Arctic. It's not as huge as the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012, but it's pretty decent as far as cyclones go, and it's doing its thing in that part of the Arctic where the ice pack looks weakest, but was strongest at the start of the melting season.The timing of this event is perfect for discussing one of the most important aspects of this melting season.

The image on the top right shows the ice age distribution at the start of the melting season, red being the oldest multi-year ice at that time. Due to a very intense high pressure area over the Beaufort Sea at the end of the freezing season, heavy winds drove the ice pack apart there (a so-called cracking event), causing this multi-year ice to become interspersed with very thin ice. That's the dark blue spots between all the red.

During the very first phase of the melting season the Beaufort Sea region witnessed a heat wave causing a lot of this thin ice to melt out. Because the ice pack wasn't pushed back together again, many of the multi-year ice floes were surrounded by warming waters, and ever larger holes within the ice pack on the Pacific side of the Arctic started to form. The animation below shows what happened between week 27 and week 32, or June 29th to August 9th:

Just towards the end of the animation the holes are showing up. Unfortunately these maps aren't updated until the minimum has hit, but we can still get an idea of what happened after August 9th by checking out the sea ice concentration maps provided by the University of Bremen. The following animation shows how the holes separate a so-called 'arm' of multi-year ice from the rest of the ice pack:

ASI 2015 update 6: one more high

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2014 period (NSIDC has a good explanation of sea ice extent and area in their FAQ). I also look at other things like regional sea ice area, compactness, temperature and weather forecasts, anything of particular interest.

The animation on the right consists of NSIDC
sea ice concentration maps, one for each ASI update.

Check out the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website (ASIG)
for daily updated graphs, maps, live webcam images and
the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (ASIF) for detailed discussions.

August 19th 2015

We are now entering the final weeks of the 2015 melting season. A relatively cold and cloudy start (not as cold and cloudy as the two previous rebound years) was compensated by a July that was ideal for melting. A continuous bombardment of heat and sunshine for weeks on end has caused some late melting momentum which is now keeping sea ice extent and area numbers dropping relatively evenly, despite a switch in weather conditions since the beginning of the month (see ASI 2015 update 5: late momentum).

As expected, the 2015 trend line on most graphs is hovering between top 3 years 2012, 2007 and 2011, and rebound years 2013 and 2014. It's difficult to tell how low things will end up. Melting momentum is one thing, but at this stage of the melting season weather conditions have the last word. It's compaction rather than melting that determines the final shape of the ice pack, and compaction depends on which way the winds are blowing, which in turn depend on the constellation of cyclones and anti-cyclones, or high pressure areas. See this blog post from an eternity ago, 2010, that explains how it works.

And now for the details...

Sea ice area (SIA)

Here's the latest Cryosphere Today SIA chart, to which I've added preliminary data as calculated by Wipneus:

ASI 2015 update 5: late momentum

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2014 period (NSIDC has a good explanation of sea ice extent and area in their FAQ). I also look at other things like regional sea ice area, compactness, temperature and weather forecasts, anything of particular interest.

The animation on the right consists of NSIDC
sea ice concentration maps, one for each ASI update.

Check out the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website (ASIG)
for daily updated graphs, maps, live webcam images and
the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (ASIF) for detailed discussions.

July 30th 2015

My apologies for being a week late with this update. In my defence: things have been remarkably stable in the past three weeks, or all month really, both weather conditions and trend lines on graphs. To make up, here's a guest blog I've written, that was posted by John Abraham on the Guardian website today.

The article describes the melting season so far, starting out with more sea ice volume than previous years, because of the rebound in volume after the 2012 mega-record melting season. This year the ice pack underwent little preconditioning during May and June, perhaps slightly more than 2013 and 2014, but much less than big melt years such as 2007 and 2012.

This order of play led to the early conclusion that 2015 wouldn't break any records, and could very well end up near the previous two rebound years. However, subsequent weather conditions during all of July have broadened the range of possibilities (see the previous ASI update). I'll be going into the details in the July analysis that will be posted in 10 days or so, but I can tell you that July 2015 was exceptionally sunny and warm.

And that brings us to this melting season's main theme: Will the rebound remain intact, or will it be reversed, and perhaps even wiped out?

Let's first have a look at what has happened in these past 3 weeks.

Sea ice area (SIA)

Here's the latest Cryosphere Today SIA chart, to which I've added preliminary data as calculated by Wipneus:

ASI 2015 update 4: massive heat

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2014 period (NSIDC has a good explanation of sea ice extent and area in their FAQ). I also look at other things like regional sea ice area, compactness, temperature and weather forecasts, anything of particular interest.

The animation on the right consists of NSIDC
sea ice concentration maps, one for each ASI update.

Check out the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website (ASIG)
for daily updated graphs, maps, live webcam images and
the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (ASIF) for detailed discussions.

July 7th 2015

I wanted to wait for the latest PIOMAS update and do another melt pond analysis for June, but given the current circumstances and the forecast I've decided to squeeze this ASI update in first.

As we've seen in previous ASI updates this melting season hasn't had a flying start, but it hasn't been as slow as 2013 and 2014 either. With extent going low real fast, but area lagging behind, the compactness numbers indicated little melt pond formation and no divergence to speak of. Melt ponds - and to a lesser extent openings within the ice pack - are important because they lower the ice pack's albedo and soak up a lot of sunlight, preconditioning the ice for further melting. This melting momentum, as I call it, can play a decisive role in the latter half of the melting season, trumping weather conditions.

Of course, weather still plays a very significant role in the final outcome of a melting season. This year hasn't seen any substantial preconditioning and is more similar to rebound years 2013 and 2014 than record years 2012, 2007 and 2011. In fact, this year has been very much like last year, in the sense that there is hardly any movement. Very little ice is transported through Fram Strait to the North Atlantic ice graveyard, and there is no compaction or divergence to speak of because of a lack of strong winds. Most of the extent/area decrease is caused by so-called in situ melting, or melting on the spot.

However, there is one big difference compared to last year and that's heat. Despite a very cold start, there have been several outbreaks of warm air over the ice, slowly but radically shifting the balance between extent and area data. The impact is felt on the surface of the ice pack, but doesn't translate directly into a decrease. Not yet. In theory, it should percolate through after a while, especially if the heat persists. And right now the Arctic sea ice pack is undergoing a massive heat wave which shows no signs of letting up.

More on what has happened and what is going to happen below.

Sea ice area (SIA)

Here's the latest Cryosphere Today SIA chart, to which I've added preliminary data as calculated by Wipneus:

Big drops have been alternating with small upticks, keeping the trend line near the upper half of the pack, but below that of 2013 and 2014.

ASI 2015 update 3: what's it going to be?

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2014 period (NSIDC has a good explanation of sea ice extent and area in their FAQ). I also look at other things like regional sea ice area, compactness, temperature and weather forecasts, anything of particular interest.

The animation on the right consists of NSIDC
sea ice concentration maps, one for each ASI update.

Check out the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website (ASIG)
for daily updated graphs, maps, live webcam images and
the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (ASIF) for detailed discussions.

June 21st 2015

Today is the day of summer solstice, when the Sun reaches its highest point as seen from the North Pole, beating down 24 hours per day on the sea ice below (when not blocked by clouds). The period preceding and following this event is very important for how the melting season plays out, as it is during this time that large parts of the Arctic sea ice pack are preconditioned through melt ponds.

This preconditioning in turn influences melting momentum. A lot of momentum almost guarantees high melt rates, whereas little momentum does the opposite, depending on weather conditions during July and August as well, of course. Last week I wrote a blog post in which I tried to assess the amount of melt ponding through May, by comparing this year to previous years.

The first half of May was extremely cold, with the second half of May showing almost the exact opposite. Still, indications were that relatively few melt ponds have shown up during May and the first half of June. This is now changing, as can be seen on the animation at the upper right hand corner of this blog post, where sea ice concentration is showing a very large blue patch of lower concentration on the Pacific side of the Arctic. That's because weather conditions conducive to melting shifted from the American side to the Siberian side of the Arctic, as was forecast two weeks ago.

Below an assessment of what's been happening in the past two weeks, and what is going to happen next week.

Sea ice area (SIA)

Here's the latest Cryosphere Today SIA chart, to which I've added preliminary data as calculated by Wipneus:

CT SIA recorded a huge 340K drop in one day. The last time a triple century break was recorded was in 2008. This brings the 2015 trend line right in the middle of the highest and lowest trend line in the 2006-2015 period.

ASI 2015 update 2: take me to the other side

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2014 period (NSIDC has a good explanation of sea ice extent and area in their FAQ). I also look at other things like regional sea ice area, compactness, temperature and weather forecasts, anything of particular interest.

The animation on the right consists of NSIDC
sea ice concentration maps, one for each ASI update.

Check out the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website (ASIG)
for daily updated graphs, maps, live webcam images and
the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (ASIF) for detailed discussions.

June 4th 2015

Usually, not always, if one thing is going on in the Arctic, the opposite is happening on the other side. In fact, something like it - albeit in the longer term - is mentioned in the latest NSIDC monthly summary:

[A] new study shows that when winter sea ice concentrations are above average in the East Greenland, Barents and Kara seas, ice concentrations tend to be below average in the Bering Sea. This spatial pattern of anomalies linking the North Atlantic and North Pacific is related to the sea level pressure pattern that drives surface winds and their associated movement of atmospheric heat. These conditions are in turn linked to cooler or warmer than average sea surface temperatures that provide memory, influencing regional sea ice concentrations the following autumn. Thus, while the atmosphere is critical in setting the spatial patterns of sea ice variability, the ocean provides the memory for reemergence.

As I wrote two weeks ago in ASI 2015 update 1, the melting season started early in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, but while the multi-year ice was getting its first beating of the melting season, the ice in the East Siberian and Laptev Seas was still in deep freeze. This resulted in relatively thick ice (see the latest PIOMAS update released earlier today) and a delay when it comes to melt onset in that quarter of the Arctic.

But as always, things have started to flip, and the action is being transferred to the other side. Below I'll explain the details and the forecast for next week. Also be sure to read RobertScribbler's take on the matter when you're done reading this update, as he also covers snow cover, which, to quote from this article in the Washington Post, "unlike sea ice, gets no attention".

Sea ice area (SIA)

Although Cryosphere Today has been updating on a daily basis again, I've taken the liberty of using the latest two pre-calculated data points by Wipneus so that I can show the June CT SIA map:The 2015 trend line is clearly in the bottom half of the pack, but it refuses to follow the order that has been clear on sea ice extent graphs for several weeks now, as seen below.

ASI 2015 update 1: early start in Beaufort

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2014 period (NSIDC has a good explanation of sea ice extent and area in their FAQ). I also look at other things like regional sea ice area, compactness, temperature and weather forecasts, anything of particular interest.

The animation on the right consists of NSIDC
sea ice concentration maps, one for each ASI update.

Check out the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website (ASIG)
for daily updated graphs, maps, live webcam images and
the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (ASIF) for detailed discussions.

May 19th 2015

Here it is, the first Arctic Sea Ice update for the 2015 melting season, and boy, are we off to a flying start. But more about that later. First a quick overview of what's been happening the last few years.

After the 2007 melting season smashed the 2005 record minimum, it was equalled by the 2011 melting season and subsequently smashed itself by the 2012 melting season. Although the 2013 melting season didn't bode well at all, given the trend and the massive amount of first-year ice, the Arctic sea ice had its traditional post-record rebound after a cold and cloudy melting season.

This (volume) rebound had all but vanished at the start of the 2014 melting season, but again the melting season started out cold and cloudy, after which the sea ice hardly moved during the rest of the melting season. And so there was a similar rebound to the one following the 2013 melting season. However, this time the volume rebound was larger and lingered on through winter.

One would think the ice pack would be strengthened and more resistant to weather conditions at the start of the 2015 melting season. But this also depends on how the volume is distributed across the pack, and as we saw in the 2014/2015 Winter analysis I posted 10 days ago, all of the volume has piled up in the Central Arctic and the Canadian Archipelago, the sea ice's last safe haven. This basically means that as far as the periphery of the Arctic sea ice pack is concerned, there is no big difference with the other post-2007 years. This melting season could turn out to be another rebound, but it might just as well go as low as 2007, 2011 or even 2012. The only thing we know for certain, is that the Arctic won't see below 1 million km2 of sea ice come September, the definition of 'ice-free'.

The outcome is obviously determined by weather conditions, but this month and June are particularly important for what I like to call melting momentum. This momentum is determined by the amount of melt ponds that form on the ice pack during these two months, as they soak up more solar energy that would otherwise be reflected. 2012 had a relatively sunny and warm start of the melting season, after which a stable decrease couldn't be thrown off by weather that was less conducive to melting. And that's how the record was broken, compounded by the Great Arctic Cyclone in August. Conversely, 2013 and 2014 had cold and cloudy starts to the melting season, and this couldn't be made up later on during bouts of sunny weather.

And so melt ponds will be the main theme of this first phase of the melting season. In fact, I'm going to obsess over them in the next two months and report on them outside of the ASI updates. The amount of melting momentum decides whether the melting season has a chance of breaking records.

Off we go.