Arctic Sea Ice

IPCC crisis meeting

Some eminent journalism experts say that David Rose is a serial liar, in the pay of the GWPF. The latest scam he pulls off with the help of his fellow tribe member Judith Curry is easily debunked by Dana Nuccitelli on his Guardian blog. As always, Rose's propaganda is full of holes and lies by omission, and I wouldn't even have bothered to write this short blog post if it weren't for this gem:

The continuing furore caused by The Mail on Sunday’s revelations – which will now be amplified by the return of the Arctic ice sheet – has forced the UN’s climate change body to hold a crisis meeting.

Why would a rebound from last year's minimum mega-record spur the IPCC on to hold a crisis meeting? The IPCC's stance, after all, is that we won't be seeing an ice-free Arctic for many decades (see this piece I wrote at the end of last year: The real AR5 bombshell). This is very conservative, as even most mainstream cryospheric scientists nowadays go for somewhere after 2030.

Of course, funny as it is, the sad thing is that this kind of propaganda sticks in the minds of people. We could have a new record in the next 3 years, and a lot of people will still think the ice has rebounded because they read Rose's article that's completely devoid of depth or nuance. Work by Larry Hamilton demonstrates how fake skeptics who cried 'recovery' from 2008-2010 still has some folks thinking that Arctic sea ice is recovering. This, of course, is what Rose and the GWPF count on.

Some more debunking on the Econnexus, ClimateCrocks and HotWhopper blogs.

Arctic ice loss and armchair scientists

John Abraham, known as the dragon that slew the Viscount and an excellent climate science communicator, approached me a while ago with a couple of questions concerning the blog and Arctic sea ice in general. He turned it into this ego-inflating article on the Guardian website:

Global warming, Arctic ice loss, and armchair scientists

Armchair scientist Neven provides valuable insights into the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice

Arctic sea ice image from NASA. Photograph: HO/AFP/Getty Images

As humans put more and more heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere, the Earth's climate changes; we all know that. Some of the trickier questions are, how fast is it changing, what can we expect in the future, what are the costs of slowing emissions (compared to the costs of doing nothing), and what changes are we already observing that give us such confidence in our predictions?

Perhaps the poster child of climate change is in the Arctic, where sea ice has been declining at an astonishing rate. Over the past few decades, satellite information has been gathered which shows huge declines in ice extent (the area covered by ice). The declines are enough that it is possible that in a few years, there will be little or no ice left in the Arctic at the end of the melt season.

If the loss of ice area wasn't bad enough, the volume of ice has decreased faster than the area. By some measures, the volume of ice has decreased approximately 75% over the past 3 decades, since adequate records began to be kept.

For climate nerds like me, internet bookmarks are essential for organizations like the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) or IARC-JAXA which provide updated and high-quality information about Arctic conditions.

Summer Arctic ice extent, National Snow and Ice Data Center

While these institutions gather and make available important Arctic information, a wider community has taken a very active role in interpreting the data. These "armchair" scientists play a particularly important role in telling the rest of us what the data actually means for our future.

Perhaps the best example is the Arctic Sea Ice blog which was started in 2010 by Neven, a 38 year old freelance writer who set up the blog to draw more attention to the Arctic and create a central place for the exchange of information and ideas concerning Arctic sea ice. He also set up the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website that is a collection of graphs, maps and other pieces of information regarding Arctic sea ice, and he formed a forum to allow community discussion.

Neven, like many other armchair scientists has little formal training. But, he makes up for that with a doggedness that would impress anyone. While he describes his blog as basically weather reports, many publishing researchers turn to him for a comprehensive view of current conditions. Do you want to know what the short term ice conditions will likely be? Ask Neven. Interested in learning about impacts of current conditions on the atmosphere? Ask Neven.

Not only is he a great resource, but the commenters provide insightful thoughts as well. And very often, they are not in agreement with each other. It is refreshing to see people engage in polite yet candid discussions of various views of our Arctic.

Ice sheet melt pond – John Maurer NSIDC

So, what is the view of the current Arctic conditions? Well, let's hear from Neven himself.

Read the rest over at John Abraham's Guardian blog.

Russia abandoning ice station

Guest Post by R. Gates

Russia has ordered an "urgent" evacuation of it's drifting ice station known as North Pole-40 that sits on top Arctic sea ice, because of disintegrating sea ice that is posing dangerous conditions to reseachers. This is one more indication that the thickness of the ice is now getting very thin at places it was not before, a metric not fully captured in the extent and area data.

Barents Observer reports:

Floating research station in need of evacuation

The scientific research station was placed on the ice floe in October 2012 and was planned to stay there until September. Now the floe has already started to break apart and the crew has to be evacuated as soon as possible.

Russia’s Minister of Nature Resources and Ecology Sergey Donskoy has ordered that a plan for evacuation should be ready within three days, the Ministry’s web site reads.

“A collapse of the station’s ice floe poses a threat to its continued work, the lives of the crew, the environment close to the Canadian Economic Zone and to equipment and supplies”, a note from the minister reads.

Shell drill spill?

It all sounds so simple: Arctic sea ice is retreating, so let's get over there and start some off-shore drilling! Unfortunately the Arctic isn't a friendly place, not to humans and not to oil executives.

Commenter Lodger links to this ominous news article about the Kulluk, "a $290 million offshore oil rig operated as part of Shell’s Arctic drilling efforts in summer", that has washed up at Ocean Bay on Sitkalidak Island, close to Kodiak Island's southeast shores.

All of it is worth a read, but here's the most interesting bit:

It's been a tumultuous several days for the Kulluk, which saw itself disconnected from the tug boats charged with moving the vessel from Alaska to the Lower 48 for the winter. Earlier this year, the Kulluk performed exploratory drilling in the Beaufort Sea for Shell.

For Shell, which has invested more than $4.5 billion to drill for oil and gas in Alaska’s Arctic, the latest troubles raise questions about how prepared the company -- as well as the Coast Guard -- are for problems in the far north.

The Kulluk and its tug weren't operating above the Arctic Circle when the problems started late last week. And the Coast Guard's Alaska headquarters at Kodiak are located relatively nearby the grounded Kulluk, making response efforts easier than in the Arctic, where the agency has no base. That has some Alaskans wondering what would happen if similar troubles ever occur in the much more remote and hostile Arctic Ocean.

"The implications of this very troubling incident are clear -- Shell and its contractors are no match for Alaska’s weather and sea conditions either during drilling operations or during transit," said Lois Epstein, the Arctic program director for The Wilderness Society, late Monday in a statement. "Shell’s costly drilling experiment in the Arctic Ocean needs to be stopped by the federal government or by Shell itself, given the unacceptably high risks it poses to both humans and the environment."

The tugs Aiviq and Nanuq tow the mobile drilling unit Kulluk while a Coast Guard Jayhawk helicopter lifts off from the Kulluk with a crew member aboard Saturday. The Royal Dutch Shell rig ran aground Monday, after days of problems with its towing journey in the Alaskan Gulf (source: Petty Officer 1st Class Sara Francis/U.S. Coast Guard, via NPR).

This is happening as we speak. The oil rig is grounded in "rocky" Ocean Bay, with 150,000 gallons of diesel, oil, and hydraulic fluid on board, with the following not-so-reassuring weather forecast:

Looking for winter weirdness 4

Here's a small one, related to the previous winter weirdness post. Apparently China is also experiencing a colder winter than usual. Allow me to just copypaste the entire article from China Daily:

China's cold winter linked to Arctic sea ice loss

The unusually cold winter this year in China may be a result of the record loss of Arctic sea ice this summer, Chen Yu, senior engineer of the National Climate Center, told China Daily on Friday.

According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center in the United States, Arctic sea ice shrank to a record low on Sept 16, to an average total area of 3.61 million square kilometers.

"Observation and data analysis showed that Arctic sea ice loss may cause cold and snowy winters in parts of Asia," Chen said.

She explained that when sea ice melts in the Arctic, the water temperature increases. When that happens, the air becomes moister and is more likely to form cold fronts.

According to the China Meteorological Administration, in December most of China suffered colder weather than usual. On Dec 24, frequent cold fronts led to temperatures in 21 monitoring stations hitting record lows.

And the cold weather is going to return. A new round of cold fronts will hit most parts of the country on New Year's Eve, bringing mild to medium snowfalls to Northeast China.

Kang Zhiming, weather forecaster of the National Meteorological Center, said weather models showed the temperature will not rise until late January.

"The weather authorities will keep a close eye on any changes in the weather, especially before Spring Festival, in order to give timely information to transport and related departments, particularly in the event of extreme weather," Kang said.

There are more details with regards to how cold the cold is in this China Daily article from a couple of days ago:

(not so) Cool vids

The melting season has come to an end (more on that tomorrow in a new ASI update) and so all kinds of cool graphs, images and videos make the rounds. Unfortunately what is going on in the Arctic isn't so cool, otherwise it'd be more fun. The awe-inspiring shattering of records and the seriousness of the whole thing is starting to hit home, surpassing my denial mechanisms.

First off, this visually awesome reconstruction of the Arctic summer storm, aka Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012, made by the NASA/Goddard Science Visualization Studio (who also made this stunning video of ocean currents) for a NASA article called Arctic Sea Ice Hits Smallest Extent In Satellite Era:

NOAA's Visualization Lab produced The Arctic's Record Breaking Ice Melt:

Sea ice loss 2012: what do the records mean?

A lot of good stuff coming out lately. First of all this one hour programme on Radio Ecoshock with Jennifer Francis, Mark Serreze and Cecilia Bitz, which I highly recommend, especially the first interview with Dr. Jennifer Francis: Arctic Meltdown, Scientists Speak Out

For the people who weren't able to watch last week's report on Arctic sea ice on BBC Newsnight, there's a transcript on The Carbon Brief blog.

Then there's this piece on the Huffington Post website by Nathan Currier: Arctic Crisis: Far From Sight, the Top of the World's Problems

Stefan Rahmstorf from Potsdam University wrote a piece on consequences of disappearing sea ice for Project Syndicate: Melting on Top of The World

And last, but most definitely not least, there's a new article out, written by ASI Blog guest author Kevin McKinney, aka Doc Snow on Hubpages:

Sea Ice Loss 2012: What Do The Records Mean?

Labor Day 2012 was celebrated—if that is the word—with new record lows for the Arctic sea ice in virtually every sea ice dataset, be it ice extent, area, or volume; be it satellite or re-analysis-based; be it Danish, American, or Japanese. And those lows have kept getting lower.

Actually, the new record lows had begun to appear on August 17^th, when the University of Bremen sea ice extent chart dipped below its previous all-time low. August 17^th is shockingly early; the annual minimum typically falls somewhere in mid-September, and that is naturally when records are set. To see records fall a month earlier than that gave many observers serious pause.

The shock has generated some headlines—probably less than merited, but still more than enough to puzzle many folks. After all, the Arctic Ocean is very far away from most of us; how can the exact amount of ice covering it matter?

Put another way, do the new records really mean anything?

Read the rest of this excellent article here.

Arctic ice melt = 20 years of CO2 emissions

With records being shattered all over the place, some names in the cryospheric community are gaining in prominence. One of those names is Peter Wadhams, professor of Ocean Physics at the University of Cambridge, who has been predicting for years the things we are currently witnessing. He already was a prominent expert, allowed to hop on British submarines to measure Arctic sea ice thickness from below, leading him to conclude in 1996 that Arctic ice had thinned by 40 per cent since the 1970s. But he is one of the few scientists to come out early and warn about the impending disappearance of Arctic sea ice and its consequences.

BBC Newsnight has more from Professor Wadhams:

Arctic ice melt 'like adding 20 years of CO2 emissions'

Loss of Arctic ice is effectively doubling mankind's contribution to global warming, ice scientist Professor Peter Wadhams has told BBC Newsnight.

White ice reflects more sunlight than open water, acting like a parasol.

Melting of white Arctic ice, currently at its lowest level in recent history, is causing more absorption.

Prof Wadhams calculates that this increased absorption of the sun's rays is "the equivalent of about 20 years of additional CO2 being added by man".

The Cambridge University expert says that the Arctic ice cap is "heading for oblivion".

Use of graphs

Since the inception of this blog in 2010 a small community has developed of people who are interested in everything concerning Arctic sea ice and the science surrounding it. Though not climate scientists, a lot of these people have certain skills due to their work or education, and so it was hardly surprising that several of them, including myself, started playing around with data and make graphs based on them.

A couple of days ago an article on the BBC website appeared that discusses geoengineering to stave off a possible major methane release (we discussed this here). Based on written evidence by professor Peter Wadhams and the Arctic Methane Emergency Group for the Environmental Audit Committee of the British House of Commons that was published on February 24th (followed by oral evidence as delivered on February 21st, and published on March 8th), this graph appeared in the article:In the bottom right corner there was a caption saying 'PIOMAS project' (it has now been removed). Unfortunately the graph had nothing to do at all with PIOMAS or the Polar Science Center or its scientists, who decided to provide the data after popular request. The graph is made and regularly updated by ASI blog commenter Wipneus, who has a collection of graphs based on PIOMAS data and other sources on his ArctischePinguin site.

There are two things I'd like to make clear with regards to this:

Arctic 'tipping point' may not be reached

I saw this news item in the blog news feed in the right side bar and thought it was worth a post. From the BBC website:

Arctic 'tipping point' may not be reached

By Matt McGrath Science reporter, BBC World Service

Scientists say that current concerns over a tipping point in the disappearance of Arctic sea ice may be misplaced.

Danish researchers analysed ancient pieces of driftwood found in Northern Greenland which they say is an accurate way of measuring the extent of the ancient ice loss.

Writing in the journal Science, the team found evidence that sea ice levels were about 50% lower than today when temperatures warmed around 5,000 years ago.

They argue that a tipping point under current scenarios is unlikely, as changes to wind systems can slow down the rate of melting.