Arctic Sea Ice

Beaufort under early pressure

A high-pressure area has been moving in over the Beaufort Sea lately. It's quite big and quite high in pressure. Environment Canada has the current pressure there at 1042 hPa:

I've coloured the land masses to make it easier to orient. I've also put in the red arrows to show which way the winds blow along the so-called isobars.

This is the second notable high of this year, following another big one in February that produced strong winds that pushed the ice away from the coast. This phenomenon called the Beaufort Gyre resulted in what we call a cracking event around here (see this blog post). Of course, the Arctic was plenty cold around that time and so the leads froze over again, but the marks are still visible on this AVHHR image (provided again by Environment Canada):

On the one hand those leads let heat escape from the ocean water, on the other hand the thin ice between the enormous floes will melt out easily as soon as sunlight and higher temperatures start taking over, possibly making the entire zone more vulnerable early in the melting season.

The reason I've decided to dedicate a blog post to this, has to do with the current ECMWF forecast for the coming 6 days:

2015/2016 Winter analysis

I think this winter is going to get studied like crazy,
for quite a while. It’s a very interesting time.
        Jennifer Francis, Washington Post

The extraordinary temperature anomalies in the Arctic since the start of the year haven't gone unnoticed in quite a few media outlets, and I apologize for not having joined the fray of actuality. On the other hand, context trumps actuality, as we need to compare to previous years and get a feel for what this prelude to the melting season may mean. In that sense, I'm early with this year's winter analysis (compared to last year).

Let's start studying like crazy, shall we?

It's a lot of text and images, so if you're feeling a bit tl;dr-ish today,
skip to the conclusion at the bottom of the page.

Surface air temperature

Here are the monthly temperature graphs for November-February in the Arctic Circle, from 2005/2006 to the past winter, based on the NCEP reanalysis dataset:

Last November saw the highest average monthly temperature in the 2005-2015 record, followed by a lower December, relatively speaking. Things then get a little bit crazy after the turn of the year, with the January 2014 record getting broken by almost 3 °C! February isn't far behind either, almost 1.5 °C higher than the already 'warm' February of 2014. This is unprecedented.

To see where temps were least low, I've created average temperature maps using the Daily mean composites page from NOAA's Earth Science Research Laboratory website, comparing the 2015/2016 freezing season to those preceding the years with the lowest minimums on record (click for a larger version):

Dark Snow Project

I've waited with this blog post to kick off a second round of donations for this worthy project, aimed at measuring the impact of changing wildfire and industrial soot levels on snow and ice reflectivity.

Because of a lack of government funding Dr. Jason Box from the Byrd Polar Research Center (here's his blog) is now trying to raise through crowdfunding the money that is needed to fly to the top of the Greenland ice sheet and take samples. This data is very useful, as the reflectivity of the Greenland ice sheet has been decreasing steadily for a while now. The effects of this decrease have been documented here and elsewhere around the web last summer, when practically all of the surface of the ice sheet was melting at some point, a rare occurance.

Lower reflectivity of course means more melting, so reducing soot emissions might be a great help in slowing down the current melting trend of the Greenland ice sheet (and perhaps some of the Arctic sea ice melt as well), but for that we need to know how big a role soot is playing in all of this.

This video from Peter Sinclair's blog explains it all
(please watch if you haven't already):

You can donate at the Dark Snow Project website.

Another project that Dr. Box is involved in, is called Extreme Ice Survey, and that's the organisation that delivered the footage that was used for the popular Chasing Ice documentary:

Arctic snow cover shows steep decline

From LiveScience:

Arctic Snow Cover Shows Steep Decline

The blanket of snow that covers Arctic regions for most of the year has been shrinking at an increasing pace over the past decade, researchers say.

A recent study found an overall decrease in Arctic snow-cover extent (snow that covers the Arctic at the end of the spring) from 1967 through 2012, and an acceleration of snow loss after the year 2003. The rate of snow-cover loss in June between 1979 and 2012 was 17.6 percent per decade (relative to the 1979-2000 mean), which is greater than the rate of September sea-ice decline during that same period, the researchers say.

Snow cover extent anomalies for every third year from 1967 through 2012. Each June's snow cover is compared to the 1971–2000 mean. Above-average extent appears in shades of blue, and below-average extent appears in shades of orange.
CREDIT: Robert Simmon, NASA Earth Observatory

In fact, sea-ice extent — the area of ocean with at least 15 percent ice cover — reached a new record low in September, dwindling to 1.32 million square miles (3.41 million square kilometers), according to the U.S. National Snow & Ice Data Center, which tracks sea ice with satellite data.

The link between snow-cover and sea-ice extent is not completely understood. "But if you remove snow cover earlier, you're creating the potential to send warmer air out over the ocean. It can't be good for sea ice if you lose the snow early," study researcher Chris Derksen, a cryosphere scientist at Environment Canada in Toronto, told Nature News. [10 Key Facts About Arctic Sea Ice]

Read the rest of the article here.

Commenter Dominik Lenné has a short summary of what it all means on his Remarks and Observations blog.

Looking for winter weirdness 5

From WattsUpWithThat (via Pierre Gosselin and Marc Morano):

Increased evaporation combined with more heat loss in the Arctic due to a record low amount of Arctic sea ice is the likely cause.

The likely cause of this: This graph is made and updated by the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab. They also have maps showing the Northern Hemisphere December and daily (in this case January 5th 2013) departure from normal:

Three of the five highest positive anomalies for December have all occurred in the last four years. It does indeed make sense that all of that open water in the Arctic Ocean has something to do with it. If that keeps up for a couple of more years, we could start calling it climate change, right? Not in a couple of decades, but now, as we speak.

It's exhilarating to see fake skeptics acknowledge this so casually. Just recently, the only fake skeptic scientist with any credentials they could find for the first Climate Dialogue on Arctic sea ice, Dr. Judith Curry, even acknowledged that at least 50% of the disappearance of Arctic sea ice was due to human activity.

And so you could even plausibly posit that all the deaths and damage due to the recent extreme cold in Russia and China are partially caused by AGW. I'm not saying it is definitely so, but it isn't that far-fetched either. And it's most probably not the last we've seen of it. If September sea ice cover stays at the level of the last 5-6 years or even diminishes further, we could be seeing more snowfall anomalies during winter. In other words, more deaths and damage.

Fake skeptics implicitly (are starting to) agree with this, but still they'll do anything to keep their coveted laissez- faire business-as-usual scenario going for as long as possible. Never mind the deaths and damage along the way, these sacrifices are needed for tomorrow's heaven.
I don't know, but it reminds me of war propaganda in the vein of 'Die, young man, for the future of your country'. Too bad they're not so honest as to say it outright.
I'd have more respect for them.

At the end of the post the WUWT science team even announces:

Looking for winter weirdness 2

While the US East coast is preparing for an intensifying Sandy (Jeff Masters has all the info you could possibly want), Europe is being struck by a very early cold snap. According to German meteorologist Christoph Hartmann such early snows in Germany occur every 30 to 40 years (link).*

Bulgarian news ageny Novinite has some short info about the rest of Europe:

The early first snow for the new winter has already fallen in Central Europe, tragically claiming three lives in Poland.

The three victims of deadly frostbite are men aged 50-60, one of them being a homeless person.

The heavy snowfall in southern Poland has obstructed communications, and some 70,000 people have remained without power.

The situation in neighboring Czech Republic is similar, with trains delayed, roads blocked by wet snow, and trees felled.

Northern Italy and Switzerland have also been affected by the phenomenon, caused by the so-called Cassandra cyclone.

Snow has also fallen in the northern areas of southerly Croatia on the Balkan Peninsula, with the snow cover expected to reach some 20 cm by Sunday evening.

Looking at the daily snow cover maps provided by the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab (hat-tip to Hans Verbeek from the Cassandraclub blog) we see the situation up till yesterday:

The two images above show snow cover, the two images below show the anomaly. The snow in Central Europe is caused by a combination of frigid air from the Arctic and Cassandra, the cyclone in the Mediterranean pushing mild and moist air northwards. This seems to be confirmed by the National Weather Service of Switzerland, as explained in this swissinfo.ch article:

The untold drama of Northern snow cover

Do we have time for another record while Arctic sea ice records are falling around us like ripe plums? I guess we'll have to make time. M. A. Rodger, who runs the Marclimategraphs page, sent me this guest blog concerning record snow anomalies:

The untold drama of Northern snow cover

When considering the impact of climate change on polar regions, the star of the show has always been Arctic sea ice. Playing supporting roles are the Greenland ice cap and Antarctica. Yet one actor in the drama remains badly overlooked: the snows that cover our Northern continents.

In June 2012, for instance, it was reported that Northern Hemisphere Land Snow Cover had broken a record. The June snow anomaly was the lowest figure for June in the whole 45 year record, besting the previous record set in 2010 by 1 million square kilometres. This statement, reported as the last item in the US NSIDC's first July Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis bulletin understandably never gained great widespread coverage.

Yet this summer's Northern snow cover presents a far more dramatic story that surely deserve greater prominence. For a start, June 2012 snow cover was not just the record of June. Excluding Greenland with its ice cap, the June 2012 anomaly was the record for all months in the entire 45 year record. The anomaly stood at 5.74 million square kilometres, pipping the December 1980 record by 0.13 million square kilometres, although this again is hardly front page news.