Arctic Sea Ice

PIOMAS December 2019

Another month has passed, and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

November 2019 saw an above average sea ice volume increase according to PIOMAS (3834 vs 3553 km3 for the 2007-2018 period). In fact, only three years - 2007, 2011 and 2018 - saw a larger increase, which means all other years gained on 2019. Of course, it also means that 2019 is no longer on a par with 2012 and 2016. The difference increased to 212 and 961 km3, respectively, and 2019 is now firmly in 3rd place.

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

On Wipneus' version of the PIOMAS graph, you can see the 2012 trend line catching up with 2019, up until the last few days of November:

PIOMAS November 2019

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

During October there was a slowdown in ice growth, which is also reflected in the PIOMAS numbers. 2019 was the third year since 2007 to record a volume increase under 2000 km3. Given that 2016 increased even more slowly, it has overtaken 2019, which is now third lowest on record. But as can be seen on the graph above, the difference with 2012 (99 km3) and 2016 (31 km3) is negligible.

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

If you carefully observe the 2019 trend line on Wipneus' version of the PIOMAS graph, you'll see that it would have been lowest, had it not shot up during the last week of October (more on that below):

PIOMAS October 2019

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

As usual, the minimum was reached during September, and as with other data sets (extent and area), this year's minimum was second lowest on record. PIOMAS bottomed out at 4058 km3 on 14 September, which is 244 km3 lower than 2011 and 385 km3 higher than 2012. In total, 18,432 km3 of sea ice volume was lost, which is the fourth highest amount in the 2007-2019 period. What is interesting to note, is that the three years that lost more volume all started out with a lot more ice than 2019: As can be seen on the PIOMAS Daily Arctic Ice Volume graph, the trend line quickly shot up after the minimum was reached, though 2019 is still second. Overall, September saw an increase of 398 km3, which is the highest increase in the 2007-2019 period (the average is 1 km3). This means that 2012 increased its lead over 2019, and all the other years crept closer.

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

PIOMAS September 2019

Apologies for this late update, but at least it will give me the opportunity to give my opinion/analysis of how this melting season has evolved, now that the minimum is just around the corner.

It also gives me the opportunity to announce that the Arctic Sea Ice Forum recently passed the 100 million pageview mark. This year already has the most pageviews since the ASIF's inception in 2013, and this month - only halfway through - already attracted more pageviews than any other month so far. My gratitude goes out to everyone who contributes with images, animations, analysis, speculation and heaps and heaps of information, all of them needed to help people become conscious of the severity of the situation human civilisation is in.

On to 1 billion pageviews!

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Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

Despite a massive amount of melting momentum and an advantageous thickness distribution, volume loss during August 2019 was below average (2301 vs 2559 km3 for the 2007-2018 period). Of course, being record low makes it harder to melt a lot of ice, but since 2007, only two years - 2013 and 2017 - managed to lose less volume than 2019 during August. This means that this year is no longer lowest on record, with 2012 breezing past and going 238 km3 lower. 2016, though profiting from the most extreme August weather conditions in the era of the New Abnormal, is still 521 km3 behind.

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

Wipneus' version of the PIOMAS graph shows that this year is the only one capable of staying somewhat close to 2012:

PIOMAS August 2019

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

2019 had a real opportunity during July to further move away from 2012, but failed to do so. Both years had a volume loss that was well below the 2007-2018 average of 6037 km3, which isn't that surprising given how low they both already are. 2017 had even less of a volume loss, and so 2019 is still lowest and the gap with number 2 has grown a little bit. All other years, except for 2014, managed to close the gap somewhat.

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

Wipneus' version of the PIOMAS graph shows how this year's volume loss slowed down during the second half of July, when it actually should have increased the gap to be able to compete with the big drop that was caused by the GAC during the first week of August 2012:

PIOMAS July 2019

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

To quote Céline Dijon*: This is getting serious.

With a total drop of 7066 km3 for June 2019, this was only the second time - after 2012 - that the 7000 km3-mark had been breached. It was just enough to squeeze past 2017 and take the lead in the rankings, while leaving all other years - except for 2012 - in the dust. For instance, the difference with 2008 has grown to 5395 km3, which amounts to a decrease of 30% in just a little over 10 years. The difference with 2016 (member of the 'second lowest minimum' triumvirate, together with 2007 and 2011) went from 208 to 1384 km3. But 2012 is now hot on 2019's tail, only 248 km3 behind, while 2017 is still second with just 108 km3 more volume than 2019 (the difference was 2460 km3 in 2017's favour at the end of January).

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

Wipneus' version of the PIOMAS graph clearly shows how 2019 (red line) and 2012 (purple line) have started to move away from the other trend lines:

PIOMAS June 2019

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

As you can see, 2019 has moved into second place on the PIOMAS volume graph. The drop of 3234 km3 for May was third highest on record (after 2010 and 2012 which dropped 3523 and 3508 km3 respectively) and well above the average May decrease of 2621 km3. Last month, 2019 was on a par with 2011, 2016 and 2018 for second place, but now there is no question who is second. And 2017's lead has been reduced further from 1665 to 1015 km3.

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

Wipneus' version of the PIOMAS graph also shows the minuscule lead over all the other years, except 2017, which is about to end its extraordinary excursion:

PIOMAS May 2019

Another month (and a half) has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

The flatline that started in the second half of March, continued for a while longer during April, shot up a tiny bit towards this year's maximum, and then essentially flatlined again, with a small dip towards the end of the month. This year's maximum of 22,490 km3 is the third lowest on record, 116 and 1,708 km3 behind 2018 and 2017 respectively (yes, the three lowest maximums on record have all occurred in the last three years).

This year's monthly change for April was +127 km3, just 8 km3 above the average of +119 km3. Just like last month, 2019 is still fourth lowest, but the difference with 2011 and 2018, 63 and 44 km3 respectively, has become so small that you could say that they're sharing the second position (together with 2016 that is just 13 km3 behind 2019). The difference with leader 2017 is still large at 1665 km3, but the largest gap was a whopping 2550 km3 on February 14th.

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

Wipneus' version of the PIOMAS graph shows that 2016 dropped very fast during May, also in extent (more on that below):

PIOMAS April 2019

Apologies for not posting an update last month (busy).

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Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

Look at the red line in the graph above. Do you see it essentially flatline towards the end of March? That's the primary cause for 2019 smashing the record for lowest March volume increase in the 2007-2019 period (and probably before that as well). The March average for that period was 1869 km3, the record was 1557 km3 (March 2015), and this year's March came in at 1339 km3. 2019 went from 7th to 4th place in the rankings, with 2011 just 89 km3 lower and a gap with leader 2017 that went down from 2279 km3 to 1834 km3.

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

Wipneus' version of the PIOMAS graph shows that 2019 still has some ways to go to catch up with 2017 (that went extremely low because of a horror winter, but luckily bounced up again during spring and early summer):

PIOMAS February 2019

It was a long wait, what with the US government shutdown and a new year requiring spreadsheet updates, but here is the first PIOMAS update of 2019.

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Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

Good news! So far, the winter has been good for Arctic sea ice. The past three months have been relatively cool, especially when compared to the previous three winters, which broke all temperature records for the Arctic (see Zack Labe's excellent graph here). Of course, PIOMAS has responded in kind. With 3456 km3, January was well above the 3179 km3 average for the 2007-2018 period. And so, 2019 starts out as 7th lowest on record, a whopping 2500 km3 behind ranking leader 2017, almost doubling the gap since the end of November.

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

Wipneus hasn't updated his version of the PIOMAS graph yet, so we move on to the anomaly graph. Here too, it's clear that things are going relatively well for the ice, with the trend line venturing into 2 standard deviation territory: